Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by GoodForAnother, May 10, 2010.
My work forecast challenge starts tomorrow. I'll share as I do them. At least twice a week for 6 of 10 weeks is my goal.
This was an ef2
This one is likely a significant tornado. Debris lofted to at least 17k feet plus falling out of the sky 25 miles north of greensboro
Here in Lex, SC. Nasty storms went through about 230, was under tornado warning for about 30 mins. Have been without power since then.
Got hit by that storm around 1. Pretty heavy rain for a long time
Where in Lexington?
About a mile up the road from Lake Murray Dam
In the Lexington side? My parents live about a mile up the road on the irmo side, they didn’t get the bad shit I guess
Yeah, Lex side near 378, apparently trees/powerlines down everywhere on this side of town. Power just came back on.
That part of the county always gets the bad shit. Growing up we never got much, but the tornadoes and big hail were always across the dam
From same storm that hit Greensboro
So this kinda come out of no where?
There was an enhanced threat in the area with possible tornadoes forecast. The warning itself was a tiny bit late, but it should not have been a surprise.
Friday was the more hyped event, but this looks like it might have been "bigger"
Probably going to give this dude another donation for his streams this year. Pretty good watch last year
Greensboro, NC hit pretty hard as well.
A pretty strong couplet SW of Richmond, VA
Two areas of rotation
Two distinct storms.
You can tell if a storm is cycling when the rotation wanes, but never goes away, before strengthening again.
Or you'll see one meso arc off to the left of the storm (often off to the NNW) as a new one forms/becomes dominant in it's place. The Dodge City tornadoes from 2016 were like that if I recall
I gotcha. I looked At it again and kinda realized it didn’t look the same as the strong storms I remember in the Midwest that would cycle like that.
Watching "SuperTornado- Anatomy of a Mega Disaster" on Amazon Prime revisiting the Joplin tornado.
It's pretty interesting and brings back a lot of memories.
I'll have to look for that
Elon is 10 miles from my house. Road still closed this morning. We got lucky. The path of that cell paralleled the mountain/ridge that we are on the other side of. Local reports are that everyone is safe, with some minor injuries. Total cliche, but it is hard to imagine this happening so close to home. I drive through there twice a day.
Were those tors embedded in a line or semi discreet
I'll have to look again, cause I was distracted by hockey last night and only looked at the circulations.
I'm pretty sure they were semi isolated supercells just ahead of the main line. It was messy overall
Glad it missed you and that it appears there weren't any serious injuries
Been a while since we've seen an event like this
Well, first forecast for the challenge. Bleh, not a lot going on. Could be some hail, but wind looks more likely.
Just as likely nothing happens/storms form but stay sub-severe.
Fairly potent upper level wave will move through the Northwest with modest 500mb flow overspreading much of Montana and Idaho. Despite, meager low-level moisture, steep 700-500mb lapse rates will yield ~ 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and when coupled with bulk shear values in excess of 50 knots will support a very marginal chance at a severe storm. Storm mode looks to be in the form of pulse-like/multi-cell convection, however, given strong shear, a transient supercell or two is possible.
Expect any convection to form in an area of enhanced low-level convergence to the NE of the surface low in central MT. The lift collocated with an area of modest instability could yield an isolated hail report. However, given the dry boundary layer, severe wind gusts look most probabilistic.
Spoiler: Zoomed out
Randomly assigned locations?
No assigned locations. We pick where we think there will be severe weather and forecast for that point
We pick a point, determine the main threat (hail, wind, tor), and then write a discussion. Scored based upon proximity to a severe report, if there is one
Gotcha. You going to have some fun and do one for Friday in Texas?
Yeah, that's the plan. Trying to avoid SPC discussion for now. It's technically guidance, but I want to see what I think first as we get closer
A quick look at things and places I'll watch for the challenge.
Overnight Tuesday: NE KS and western MO: maybe a small chance of elevated storms with some hail
Thursday: SE NM: all hazards
Friday eastern NM/western TX: all hazards
Greensboro tornado rated ef2
Arkansas had 11(?!) tornados
Multiple Tornadoes Confirmed So Far, Including EF-2
Updated: Apr 16, 2018 05:46 PM CDT
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - Storm surveyors with the National Weather Service continue assessments from the severe weather outbreak on Friday (April 13).
As of mid-morning on Monday, the total stands at 11, as follows:
Mountainburg (Crawford County) EF-2
Gamaliel Landing (Baxter County) EF-1
Umpire (Howard County) EF-1
Ozone (Johnson County) EF-1
Lavaca (Sebastian/Franklin counties) EF-1
Oppelo (Conway County) EF-0
Crossett (Ashley County) EF-1 (Two tornadoes)
Montrose (Ashley/Chicot counties) EF-2
El Dorado (Union County) TBA (Two tornadoes)
Total tornadoes for the year in Arkansas stands at 20.
Update (4/15/18 9:20 p.m.):
ASHLEY COUNTY, Ark- The National Weather Service out of Jackson, MS submitted survey results on Sunday confirming three tornadoes in far South Arkansas.
Two tornadoes remained in Ashley County. One was discovered 8 miles southwest of Crossett. This tornado uprooted and snap many trees, causing damage to a few homes. The damage found was consistent with an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds of 100 mph.
Another tornado track was discovered 4 miles east of Crossett. Several trees along the path were uprooted and snapped. A few small sheds received damage. This damage was consistent with an EF-1 tornado with a wind speed of 100 mph.
The third tornado touched down in Ashley County and continued into Chicot County before ending. It was given an EF-2 rating with winds peaking near 115 mph. According to the survey report, the top of a silo was removed and the structure was bent, two homes had exterior damage with one losing a large amount of roofing material, and a travel trailer was destroyed. All of this damage was was located near US HWY 82 at the Ashley/Chicot County line. As the tornado continued into Chicot County, two sets of wooden transmission poled were found snapped and a mobile home sustained damage.
OPPELO, Ark. - The National Weather Service in Little Rock confirmed a tornado caused damage in Oppelo. It was given an EF-0 rating with estimated winds of 65-85 mph. According to the survey, several trees were snapped or uprooted near Timberlake Reservoir.
Update (4/15/18 6:28 p.m.):
LAVACA, Ark. - At 6:23 p.m. CDT on Sunday, the National Weather Service in Tulsa confirmed a fifth Tornado touched down near Lavaca, Arkansas, on Friday, which was classified an EF-1 with winds between 85 and 95 MPH.
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. -- On Sunday, a survey team from the Little Rock National Weather Service office completed a storm damage assessment located in Johnson County in the community of Ozone. They found damage consistent with an EF-1 tornado with winds of 105 mph.
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. -- On Friday evening and into the overnight hours, Arkansas was rocked with severe weather. Thunderstorms left damage to many locations across the state.
By the end ot the severe weather event, more that three dozen reports were submitted that spanned from tornadoes, wind damage, flooding, to hail.
The National Weather Service began surveying storm damage Saturday across the state to determine the cause. Below is what has been discovered so far:
Straight-line wind damage was found in Mountain Home, located in Baxter County. Utility poles were blown down. Several businesses sustained heavy damage and a nursing home lost part of its roof and had to be evacuated. This type of damage was consistent with wind speeds of 85-90 mph.
To the north of Mountain Home in Baxter County, an EF-1 tornado with winds of 85- 110 mph was confirmed. The survey team found damage to a church, garage and outbuildings along with several trees snapped or uprooted.
In the Greers Ferry area, damage was reported to be from straight-line winds of 85 to 90 mph.
In Conway, the damage on the UCA campus is consistent with straight-line winds of 75 mph.
The National Weather Service also surveyed the Mountainburg area in Crawford County. The preliminary results have the damage being caused by an EF-2. Multiple buildings were damaged with numerous snapped and uprooted trees.
In Southwest Arkansas, a survey team went to the Umpire Community in Howard County They discovered damage that would be caused by an EF-1 rated tornado. This survey is still ongoing.
Keep in mind, surveys are still being completed and will take several more days before they are finished. Please check back for new updates.
Oh great more snow for me this weekend
I hope the forecast holds and temps stay at the 40 mark but fuck, the way this spring has gone I’m fully expecting 12+ inches
Meridian is such a weird city to drive through. Most interstates don't pass right through the middle of a city at street level (or close to it).
Let's look at all those severe reports I nailed
Lol I was way off. I figured I was going out on a limb, but also figured that is a storm did form, they often spit out a few severe gusts out west
Not good today
One minute satellite data for this area
At least there could be some drought relief coming this week.
That is, if it isn’t a giant charred scar by then