Yeah. The chiclets don’t like it so much, and saw people downplaying it on Twitter last night. But at this point a pattern change is welcome. Can’t believe it’ll be May before Oklahoma sees a single tornado.
Severe weather potential based on the CFS. Warmer colors and Xs mean higher potential for sever weather. At least that is my elementary understanding of it.
Yeah I’m willing to bet the 30 day forecast isn’t going to be accurate. Just more fuel for the endless hype train that is this season
Your hurricane is pissing on us down here and cost us an opportunity to shit on the best the Big 12 has to offer in baseball so please keep it confined to your area. Thanks, Management
Awesome, congrats! I'll keep an eye on it. If i don't bring anything up about it, and you want something more specific, just ask and i can give you my thoughts A quick look at things, it seems like you should be fine. Still a ways out, at least weather wise.
Yep, this. I have a few posts from earlier this year + last year where I spit out a lot of words about it if you want to search like "CFS" or something... Main thing to note: the model (for this purpose is run once a day at 00z (7pm CDT) out to day 45. Each row is a new run/forecast; each column is a particular day the forecast is valid. This way you can see what successive runs/the trends for each day is. If the same day lights up across multiple runs, you can probably put a bit more stock into it vs. it being all over the place. There are a lot of caveats that apply to this, but I use it to get a general feel for the overall pattern before I actually dig into it. I've heard that after weeks 2-3, climatology tends to win out over the model. Therefore, you might be better off saying "Gee, severe weather is quite favorable in central Oklahoma in late May" and you'll likely verify that forecast more than a specific 3-5 week CFS forecast.
The hype for this is going to be unbelievable if it even looks remotely favorable by day 3. It'll end up producing tornadoes or something, but no 3 mile wide disaster so people will say the SPC failed
Got a chance to go out with some fire guys to check out the Legion Lake Fire at Custer SP. First time really seeing a post-fire area before. Within the past few months, I've found myself more and more interested in fire weather and being an IMET
I was out of town during the fire and this was my view of it when I flew back 6 days after it started
Fires are pretty incredible. Natural process that does wonders for the environment at pretty incredible costs these days. Once I get into the federal service I’m going to start taking their GIS Fire classes.
That sounds badass. It's incredible how quickly the grass in the park greened up. It looks amazing compared to the previous years
The Legion Lake fire was 54,023 acres, or 84.4 square miles, ranking it as the third-largest wildfire in the known history of the Black Hills region.
Yup- get to get some hazard pay and overtime doing support work. Grasses will respond incredibly well to a fire. Hopefully no one got hurt, I’d bet that area really needed the fire.
As far as I know, no fire fighters were seriously hurt. All structures were saved and the buffalo heard was unhurt
The begging burros died. RIP childhood memories.(of there huge penii as we fed them carrots out the car windows)
Worked up there and did the loop around the parks drinking a case of beer in the backseat of the truck with a coworker while the other tech drove. The burros were fucking awesome.
We have controlled burns all the time because the eastern red cedar has taken over. Fire does wonders to your grass for the next year
This is awesome. A+ for giving a shit. Also on the red cedar note- we host a conference every year where agency folks and landowners come and give presentations about relevant projects. Last year we had a couple talks about eradicating red cedars, while the USDA had a booth up in the lobby with literature that promotes the planting of red cedars. Good shit.
You lose ground if you don’t burn them. I mean shit the prairies have been burned for thousands of years. Natural phenomenon that benefits the soil
Also people cut, pile, and burn the piles, however in 5 years there’s 2x as many growing back because you did not get the seed killed
Yup. But people still plant them for wind rows. One of the properties I helped manage in grad school had been owned by the school since the 70s, and they are still fighting back the cedars.
Have to have them in tree claims to protect your cattle during the winter, that just means you burns every 5-10 years to keep them under control
While I'm excited that we appear to have a threat of severe across the southern plains, I'm beyond pumped that I'm starting to see some severe potential up here. Dusted off the old radar procedures and am ready to issue all the warnings. Last year was soo slow up here. We average about 300 severe thunderstorm warnings a year, only had 183 last year
Think we see some action outside of the southern plains soon? I’ll take a distant rumble of thunder at this point
Yeah, Sunday and Monday. Shear looks a bit weak, but I would not be surprised to see us have our first warnings of the year. The hills always seem to produce something.
One of the older guys on our department goes nuts if anyone calls it a controlled burn, it's pretty funny to watch him get all riled up about it.