Official Tornado and Runaway Barge Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by GoodForAnother, May 10, 2010.

  1. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
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    I’m not going to get anything exciting am I
     
  2. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    NW AR?
     
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  3. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
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    Yes. Northern Benton Co
     
  4. Futureman

    Futureman Check you later kemosabe
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    HRRR thinks this will be a full blown outbreak
     
  5. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Yeah, I'd be inclined to dismiss it, but it's been consistent all day. RAP to an extent as well.
     
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  6. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Probably be to your east before it really gets going
     
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  7. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    If you follow the hashtag #votrexse, you'll see the special soundings that are going up
     
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  8. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Perhaps I'll look some more soon, but so long as the models are getting what's happening now correct, can have a little more faith in them. The HRRR seemed to have a good handle earlier today.

    Now is the time to start looking at the obs, satellite, and radar to really get a better sense of what the atmosphere is doing and how the models are handling that. Really helps to have 6 hourly balloons plus the vortex SE soundings
     
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  9. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Tomorrow is a day I will not be shocked to see multiple, strong to violent tornadoes or a bunch of wind reports with a couple tornadoes embedded in messy clusters or lines of storms.

    Either a big tornado day or just a big severe weather day.
     
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  10. Futureman

    Futureman Check you later kemosabe
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    I stand firm on moderate risk PDS
     
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  11. Futureman

    Futureman Check you later kemosabe
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    Not ruling out a potential high risk. Wording is strong for long track tornadoes from the latest SPC outlook. Very frightened for northern Mississippi and my college friends in Oxford :(
     
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  12. bhrangerfan0809

    bhrangerfan0809 Sprinkles are for Spelling Bee Winners™
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  13. cutig

    cutig My name is Rod, and I like to party
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  14. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Hold onto your butts today boys
     
  15. gilstein21

    gilstein21 Tight Rip 26 Seal Right
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    Oh my. Even if tornadoes don’t pop off strong winds are going to be a problem with as drenched as some of those places have been recently.
     
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  16. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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  17. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    A quick glance at the morning soundings/vertical profiles show much steeper lapse rates (temperature cools more rapidly with height) than some of the models were indicating yesterday. That will likely yield a bit higher instability and better hail potential as well.
     
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  18. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Here's our system via water vapor imagery. The leading shortwave pushing through Arkansas now with dry air (sinking air) behind it through northern TX and OK. Storms firing along the leading edge of the wave in AR now (brighter greens). Wrap around snow and fog on the north and northwest side of the low (NE, CO, and KS)

    wave.png
     
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  19. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    And already have storms firing along the cold front back into Texas and along and north of the warm front in TN, MO, and AR:

    se3comp_20190223_1458.gif
     
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  20. xec

    xec Well-Known Member
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    Appreciate the detailed explanation tbh. Thank you!
     
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  21. BrentTray

    BrentTray I’m thinking Dorsia.
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    Stay safe southern friends. Send some t’s and p’s north too.

     
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  22. GoodForAnother

    GoodForAnother I’d rather be down the allotment
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  23. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Still a moderate risk, no high risk with the new update
     
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  24. Futureman

    Futureman Check you later kemosabe
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    Unless something changes suspect it will stay moderate risk. Will we get that PDS is the question.
     
  25. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Tornado watch incoming

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Key point made in the MCD:

    The 9am Univ. Louisiana Monroe special Vortex2SE sounding showed a
    residual capping inversion near 700mb. The capping inversion has so
    far impeded sustained, free warm sector convective development to
    the east of the squall line.

    The models didn't have much of a cap today, so these special (and frequent balloons/soundings) are showing key aspects of what the atmosphere is actually doing.
     
  27. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Good example of the wind shear. Low level clouds (whitest clouds) are streaming northward with winds out of the south/southeast. Meanwhile, the upper clouds (finer greyish clouds) are streaming eastward along the westerly winds aloft.

    [​IMG]
     
  28. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Those low level clouds streaming northward are becoming more lumpy as the (meager) cap erodes this morning. Starting to see echoes show up on radar as this is the case. Expect to see an increase in storm coverage soon.

    CODNEXLAB-2km-MS.rad.20190223.1805.gif
     
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  29. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Tornado watch incoming any minute
     
  30. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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  31. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    This watch is about as close as you can get without being labeled a PDS watch. I suppose the SPC lead who put it out could have slapped a PDS tag on it, but just rolled with very high probabilities

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: 90%
    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2+): 70%
     
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  32. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    From last year, but relevant today

     
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  33. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Storms are starting to rotate from northern LA into eastern AR
     
  34. spagett

    spagett Got ya, spooked ya
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    I'm spooked
     
  35. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Storm to watch right now (well, one of them). Getting low-level convergence at the moment...storm will likely begin to develop low-level rotation soon...it's at least trying.

    kdgx_20190223_1959.png
     
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  36. One Two

    One Two Hot Dog Vibes
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    NWS is keeping an eye on the storms forming West/Southwest of Tuscaloosa. Didn't expect stuff in AL this early
     
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  37. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Yeah, plenty of instability there and little to no cap preventing storms from going up prior to the main wave/system getting into AL
     
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  38. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Severe warning now with tornado possible tag. Rotation aloft has really increased. Still attempting to organize in the low levels.
     
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  39. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Rotation aloft on that severe with tor possible cell near the SW portion of the yellow warning box...reds and green couplet - red away (toward top left of the image) and green toward radar (toward bottom right) implies rotation:

    kdgx_20190223_2015_SRV_3.1.png
     
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  40. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Bingo bango..now tornado warned

    kdgx_20190223_2021_BR_0.5.png
     
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  41. bertwing

    bertwing check out the nametag grandma
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  42. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Severe with tor possible for Tuscaloosa

    kbmx_20190223_2040_SRV_0.5.png
     
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  43. One Two

    One Two Hot Dog Vibes
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  44. One Two

    One Two Hot Dog Vibes
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  45. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    I'd expect a tornado watch soon for parts of western/N AL
     
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  46. One Two

    One Two Hot Dog Vibes
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    Yay
     
  47. Oranjello

    Oranjello Well-Known Member
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  48. One Two

    One Two Hot Dog Vibes
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  49. southlick

    southlick "Better Than You"
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  50. lomcevak

    lomcevak The suck zone
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    Previously tornado warned storm is now heading to Birmingham...trying to get itself together

    kbmx_20190223_2138.png
     
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