Man, that thing has locked in. We'll see how closely it verifies. If it's anything close to that, well...scariest environment imaginable
The latest discussion from SPC makes it sound like they aren't too worried about a messy storm mode..
The text discussion is quite good fyi. If anyone is so inclined Spoiler Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. More-isolated but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes and destructive winds and hail, is possible in surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas. --- Technical Discussion --- ...Synopsis... Two primary features will serve as the main mid/upper-level influences on convective potential through the period: 1. A synoptic cyclone -- centered initially over NV and embedded within a persistent western CONUS longwave trough. The associated 500-mb low is forecast to pivot southeastward across the Grand Canyon region today and the southern Rockies overnight, while the associated trough at that level evolves from positively to negatively tilted. This will occur as an upstream, northeastern Pacific low moves southeastward to western OR. The Southwestern synoptic wave will yield kinematic fields rarely seen in mid/late May at their latitudes, for example (by 12Z): 120-130-kt 250-mb jet max over the TX South Plains/Panhandle region, 90-100-kt 500-mb flow over northwest TX and western OK, 70-80-kt 700-mb winds over or near eastern OK, and an evening LLJ potentially exceeding 75 kt across parts of north TX and OK. 2. A shortwave trough -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of Lower MI and Lake Huron. This feature -- embedded within the southern belt of cyclonic flow around a more-substantial perturbation over the James Bay region -- will eject east- northeastward toward the lower St. Lawrence Valley and Maine through 00Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a diffuse low over southeast NM near ROW, with warm front eastward across the DFW Metroplex to northern LA. A dryline was drawn from southeastern NM into the Big Bend region of southwest TX. The dryline will mix/advect eastward across the southern High Plains through the day, reaching the eastern TX Panhandle and Permian Basin regions by late afternoon. Thereafter, where not muddled by outflow, the dryline should retreat northwestward overnight. The warm front is forecast to move/develop northward across AR, OK and portions of the TX Panhandle through the day, reaching the Ozarks this evening and overnight. Warm-frontal progress will be tempered somewhat by the presence of abundant precip to its north; however, extreme mass response forecast in advance of the mid/upper-level trough should contribute to enough warm-sector thetae advection and maintenance to keep the warm- frontal baroclinic gradient sharp, and the dryline well-defined. ...Southern Plains and vicinity... For details regarding ongoing hail/wind threats from mainly elevated storms over the Panhandles/northwest OK area, refer to SPC watches 195/196 and related mesoscale discussions. A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in the high- and moderate-risk areas. Given the expected fast storm motions, especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustain wide, long-track tornadoes. Very large and damaging hail also is possible from some of the supercells, along with sporadic severe downdraft gusts. The hail threat will extend farther north of the warm front than the wind and tornado potential. The wind-damage threat may increase this evening as convection aggregates into clusters or lines, though tornadoes and hail still will be likely from any relatively discrete storms. QLCS/line-embedded tornadoes also are possible. Collectively, the multi-episode threat justifies maintaining a high risk for this outlook cycle. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop, in aggregate, across a substantial portion of the southern Plains from the dryline eastward across OK, perhaps into western/central AR, southward to the Red River region and northwest TX. Isolated to widely scattered convection also may develop farther south in north TX and west-central/southwest TX along/ahead of the dryline this afternoon and evening. The first episode should involve moist- sector convection building gradually into potentially tornadic supercells by early-mid afternoon, between north TX and central/western OK, perhaps even over eastern OK/western AR, in subtle confluence/convergence zones. Without a strong EML, MLCINH will be modest, with only subtle diabatic heating and ambient theta-e advection necessary to support them. Thereafter, several supercells should form near the dryline in a regime of strengthening deep-layer flow and shear. This activity will move rapidly northeastward into the warm sector, which will be characterized by large low-level hodographs and buoyancy. With steep midlevel lapse rates, upper 60s to 70s F surface dew points and deep moist layers being common, MLCAPE ranging from 2000-5000 J/kg should develop in the moist sector, amidst 55-70-kt effective- shear magnitudes. Effective SRH 300-500 J/kg should develop -- locally higher, especially near the warm front. Some areas will experience a rare combination of 3000+ MLCAPE and 400+ J/kg effective SRH. The parameter space over much of the region today will support a threat of violent tornadoes, and the likelihood of multiple significant (EF2+ events). ...Northeast... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon along/ahead of a surface cold front forecast to cross the region from west to east. Occasional severe hail and damaging gusts will be the main concerns, though some supercell potential exists over the northern parts of the risk area, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Destabilization of the boundary layer is expected throughout the day and into afternoon, following the passage of a belt of precip now crossing parts of southern New York and New England in the warm- advection zone. Both diabatic surface heating and boundary-layer theta-e advection will contribute to airmass recovery from south to north ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints 60s F and steep low- level lapse rates will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep shear will increase northward, supported mainly by speed strengthening with height, with 35-45-kt effective-shear vectors possible over parts of New England. The threat should diminish with time this evening as the remaining inland warm sector shrinks and stabilizes diabatically near the surface. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 05/20/2019 $$
Yeah. If those midday storms in OK stay discrete..oh man. The dryline stuff later will most likely remain discrete, at least for a while
This mean that the hrrr solution could be more correct than the other models that just congealed everything into a mess?
Another thing to pay attention to is NW Arkansas and Joplin, MO is in the hatched area so this thing is going all night. Heads up bertwing
Potentially. Means, if it verifies, that the warm sector will be less overturned and further north. That's better for a big day
Correct me if i'm wrong but doesn't the HRRR show a potential tornado/multiple approaching the metro around 23Z/5pm?
That's what I thought. Well our next door neighbor has a storm cellar in their garage and we are going to head over there around 1pm today and monitor the storms. Got our storm bags packed and as long as my kiddo and wife are safe I don't care about anything else.
Reporting live today from the high zone like most of Oklahoma. Cellar cleaned out at home, ready to kick this pig.
At this point I think it goes without saying. Unless the high risk is for hail or a derecho it should be an understood PDS (and even then I think they issue PDS on derechos).
This is a good way to think about that 45%. Just unreal that the conditions have all stayed in place.
Whatever model Twc uses for their model reflectivity throws a big ass cell right at the okc metro around 6p
I’m sure it’ll weaken by the time it gets to me, but really hate that it’s going to get to my area when it’s dark I hate night tornados
Fuck that - I can’t think of anything much more terrifying than dealing with one of those bastards in the dark