I would put us low 70s as far as win total. Maybe 74. My question is does Dayton panic and go sign Morrison and some stop gaps now?
I’d sign LoMo just to put Dozier at 3B, he’s a waste anywhere else. This team is gonna suuuuuck and I’d be ok with it if we had some decent prospects ready to roll. But we don’t, and I’m really worried about the future. I think we win about 68-70 games this year. Offense and defense are both worse, pitching staff is about the same.
Hosmer going to the Padres is probably the best thing for the club in the long run. The near future will be max woof, though.
Saw this in the MLB thread and looked up his dWAR. I know defensive metrics don't like Hosmer but -1.6 for last year to -.8 for Duda? Why is it so skewed? Mostly to understand the stat.
dblplay1212 MG2 Do either of you know how this stat works? You guys know the advanced stuff far more than any of us do
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-eric-hosmers-defense/ His range sucks (which is the biggest factor in defense), but his perceived value is in his ability to scoop the ball out of the dirt.
Verne and Jirsch talked about it a season or two ago and said 2 things. One he has poor range to begin with. Second, they would play him closer to first than most others 1B to guard against triples with the large outfield and our generally poor fielding RFers so the poor range looks even worse.
I could be off here but I think dWAR uses UZR. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/ Calculation: For the details on how UZR is calculated — i.e. how we can attach a run value to defensive events — see the FanGraphs UZR Primer. It’s very thorough. The specifics can be a little overwhelming, but at it’s most basic level, it’s a measure of the average amount of damage that batted ball would do and how often it is converted into an out, relative to average at the position. So if the average left fielder makes a player 40% of the time on the ball in question and that batted ball (based on location, speed, etc) is worth 0.8 runs on average, fielding it cleanly earns you 0.48 runs toward your UZR (0.8*0.6). It’s a little more nuanced than that, but that’s the view from 30,000 feet. We've debated this for years in the MLB thread. I'm not overly bullish on defensive stats bc there's other factors that come into play that you just can't account for. If a 1b is hugging the line in no doubles defense and a ground ball to his right gets through, he gets penalized. Is he a bad defender bc of that? I don't think so. If a CF is shading left bc he has Manny Ramirez in LF and a ball is hit to the gap in RF, he gets penalized for not getting to it. But guess what? If the RF is shading toward CF bc he knows the CF is shading toward LF and the RF now gets that ball in the RCF gap, the RF now gets bonus points for getting to that ball. That's my biggest issue. It just doesn't account for pre-pitch positioning. It chops the diamond up into zones and you get judged on how many balls you get in each zone. And sometimes they just can't be explained. Like Brett Gardner, he went from all-time great LF to complete shit at 28? https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9927&position=OF
I'm still not completely sold on Whit, but if he has a good 1st half, I think they should flip him for prospects. Same with Herrera. I'd like to hang on to Duffy just for shits and giggles and to see his dog on twitter.
Whit should have been jettisoned by now. Herrera should be gone at the deadline, but it will be nice if he can rebuild his value some during the first half of the year. I'm torn on Duffy. He would net a big haul, but he's also a good pitcher on a decent contract, and there's a chance he could be a contributor on the next contending Royals team. That said, getting multiple contributors in return would be hard to pass up, especially with his injury history. Plus, I like the guy.
I'm kind of intrigued with this season. So many different ways they could go. Which guys they have are going to pan out. Who they can flip for what. I know there is going to be a lot of losing, but it's this season that is going to set up the next contender. ....hopefully
Feel like we need to remember the not-so-distant past. Back then, 'a lot of losing' was in the neighborhood of 100-105 losses. I don't think we'll be that bad this season. I'm just ready to feel like we're in the actual rebuild. With the prospects we have now and the state of our system, doesn't feel like we're quite there yet. Should after the draft and trade deadline though..
This is kind of how I feel. This sort of just feels like a wasted year. I'm not sure any of the young guys playing this year will be any useful part of this team's future. I'm ready to get the guys who will be part of the good Royals team so we at least have something to look forward to.
Considering all the other random vets we have signed, it actually kinda makes sense. If you squint you can see a wild card contending team. And that is dirt fucking cheap for a player of Moose’s caliber. Travis Wood is being paid the same amount by the Royals as Moose is for gods sake. I’d still rather blow it up and rebuild but that ship sailed a while ago.
When you put it that way... I’ve said on other boards, I can’t get upset about “blocking” guys cause I don’t think any of the ML-ready guys in the system will truly be contributors. So game service time for Dozier, etc. and see if these guys can return anything at the deadline. The rebuild doesn’t truly begin until this draft imo. This isn’t the way I would have approached the off-season but I see DM’s thought process and at least appreciate him sticking to his guns (minus the porn thing).
Yeah, if these guys can perform at all the first half they are going to be dirt cheap trade bait at the deadline.
I still don't think these signings prevent or stall the rebuild. The guys we have in our system that are somewhat close to MLB ready...or ready...are not all that great to begin with and had better not be who we're really 'rebuilding' with. We've seen plenty of Cheslor to know that he's, at best, a 1-2 peak WAR player. Dozier is still kind of an unknown, but he might be, at best, a little better all around than bert. The rebuild is this season, with the draft and yard sale near the deadline. I suppose the worst possible scenario, like last year, is that we're within a few games of the 2nd WC near the trade deadline and feel pressure to keep instead of sale.
If they can flip those three for say 6 single A guys, or a 3 AA's it would jump start the rebuild I think. Would that be too optimistic?
I think it may be a tad optimistic to expect much in return for those guys. Jay would be a 4th OF for any team looking at him so you'd be looking at a minimal prospect. Duda is an oft-injured 1B (DH in most teams' eyes). There aren't many teams who need a 1B and they probably wouldn't give much up in return for him because of his injury history. To a contender, he's a DH vs. RHP or a very good pinch hitter come playoff time. Moose would be the one with the most value and could possibly return an average to above average prospect. As someone said above, DMGM got (what should be) our leadoff hitter, 3 hitter, and 5 hitter for 13 million - all on 1 year deals. It appears that he's learned from his past mistakes and refused to give multi-year deals to veterans. I really like what he's been doing lately and the re-signing of Moose for pennies was another good move.
Yeah, as JRodMK1 said, probably a little too optimistic...and a healthy and productive Moose gives us really our only hope of getting good quality in a prospect return. Well, that and the same from Herrera. And I certainly realize that pinning a lot of the rebuild on the draft, when Dayton Moore is our GM, is accepting an awful lot of risk, but so be it. But hey, I think the 2018 Royals became quite a bit more exciting to watch in the past week or so.
Good article. This is the part I found most alarming: In 2015, Moustakas’ average sprint speed ranked in the 38th percentile, and the 48th percentile among third basemen. In 2017, however, Moustakas’ average sprint speed ranked in the 7th percentile, and the 9th percentile among third basemen. Suddenly, Moustakas was moving slower, and it’s evident in his baserunning measures. In terms of moving up an extra base on hits, Moustakas just ranked in the lowest percentile. Moving from first to third on singles, Moustakas ranked in the lowest percentile. Moving from first to home on doubles, he ranked in the 3rd percentile. Moving from second to home on singles, he ranked in the 14th percentile. Moose was noticeably heavier when last season started. Hell, even my wife pointed that one out. If he wants to get a payday after this year (I don't see us picking up a $15MM option next year) he needs to get in better shape. Plain and simple.
I read that this morning. It's concerning. He's never been in the greatest shape, but I didn't notice his athleticism decline that much. Hopefully it can be attributed to just recovery and not the new normal.
I'd rather see what Saunders can do than have Orlando for another year. Boni, you fucking dumbass. This will open up more at bats for Cuthbert I guess. I don't think he deserves them but I know Ned wants to get him like 400 or something.
Huds in mid season form. Was watching yesterday: Hud: “Trust me, no one in that clubhouse would say those two words. Re and build. Is rebuild two words?” Phys: “It’s one word Hud” Hud: “Well, trust me, no one in that clubhouse would say that ONE word.”
If you didn’t love Whitley enough already, he broke Bumgarner’s pitching hand with a line drive today.
Knowing this teams history with reporting injury severity we might as well pencil Duffy in for a year long DL stint.