So, there are a few angles of looking at games that many people look at...this thread is where I will try to capture most of them, and track for the season to see how you would have done just blindly following. I guess the major 5 I'll focus on are - home underdogs (per conference) - unranked home favorites vs ranked teams (based on major polls) - team coming off ATS win vs team coming off ATS loss - reverse line movement (I'm only going to be using Sports Insights data for this. There are many services that track public percentages and a lot of sportsbooks have the data available for that specific one. If you want a more accurate number or result, it would be wise to get as much different sources as possible). - Public backing a road underdog
First we'll look at ATS winner vs ATS loser (obviously this angle doesn't start until week 2) Week 2 match ups: Arizona @ Ok St -14.5 result Ok St -14.5 winner; ATS loser 1-0 FIU @ Louisville -4 result FIU +4 winner; ATS loser 0-1 Hawaii @ Washington -3 result Washington -3 winner; ATS loser 1-0 SDSU @ Army +10 result Army +10 winner; ATS loser 1-0 Miss St @ Auburn +6 result Auburn +6 winner; ATS loser 1-0 Stanford @ Duke +20 result Stanford -20 winner; ATS loser 0-1 Cincy @ Tennessee * -6 result Tennessee -6 winner; ATS loser 1-0 USM @ Marshall * +7 result Marshall +7 winner; ATS loser 0-1 NMexSt @ Minn -18.5 result NMSU +18.5 winner; ATS loser 1-0 Cal @ Col +4 result CU +4 winner; ATS loser 1-0 Temple @ Akron +13.5 result Temple -13.5 winner; ATS loser 0-1 Ore St @ Wisc * -18.5 result Wisc -18.5 winner; ATS loser 0-1 UNLV @ Wazzu * -14 result Wazzu -14 winner; ATS loser 0-1 ULL @ Kent St -9.5 result ULL +9.5 winner; ATS loser 0-1 Virginia @ Indiana +7 result Indiana +7 winner; ATS loser 1-0 BYU @ Texas -6 result BYU +6 winner; ATS loser 1-0 Mem @ Ark St -14 result ASU -14 winner; ATS loser 0-1 Hou @ UNT +22.5 result HOU -22.5 winner; ATS loser 0-1 ND @ Michigan * +4.5 result UM +4.5 winner; ATS loser 0-1 BC @ UCF -6.5 result UCF -6.5 winner; ATS loser 0-1 Results: 8-11 Home team: 6-4 Road team: 2-7 Week 3 match ups: Iowa St @ Uconn -4 result Iowa St +4 winner; 0-1 East Mich @ Mich -28.5 result EMU +28.5 winner; 1-0 Auburn @ Clemson -3 result Clemson -3 winner; 1-0 Ole Miss @ Vandy +2.5 result Vandy +2.5 winner; 0-1 Col St @ Colorado -7 result CU -7 winner; 0-1 Mich St @ ND -4.5 result ND -4.5 winner*; 1-0 Penn St @ Temple +7.5 result Temple +7.5 winner; 0-1 Wash @ Nebraska -17 result UW +17 winner; 0-1 NIU @ Wisc -16.5 result Wisc -16.5 winner; 0-1 Nevada @ SJSU +7 result SJSU +7 winner; 0-1 Ark St @ VTech -24 result Ark St +24 winner; 0-1 Wazzu @ SDSU -5 result SDSU -5 winner; 1-0 Hou @ LATech +7 result La Tech +7 winner; 1-0 Buffalo @ Ball St -5 result Buffalo +5 winner; 0-1 Lou @ Kentucky -6 result Louisville +6 winner; 1-0 Marshall @ Ohio -3 result Ohio -3 winner; 1-0 UNT @ Alabama -45.5 result UNT +45.5 winner; 1-0 Syracuse @ USC -16.5 result USC -16.5 winner; 1-0 Stanford @ Arizona +9.5 result Stanford -9.5 winner; 0-1 Results: 9-10 Home: 6-4 Away: 3-6 Could be a trend with the home teams in these games. Week 4 NCSU @ CIN -7.5 result CIN -7.5 winner; 0-1 SDSU @ Mich -9 result UM -9 winner; 1-0 EMU @ PSU -28 result PSU -28 push; 0-0 ND @ Pitt +6.5 result Pitt +6.5 winner; 1-0 GEO @ Ole Miss +10 result Georgia -10 winner; 0-1 TEM @ Maryland -9 result Temple +9 winner; 0-1 Army @ Ball St +4 result Ball St +4 winner; 1-0 Ok St @ TAM -3 result Ok St +3 winner; 0-1 FSU @ CLEM +3 result Clem +3 winner; 0-1 COL @ OSU -15 result OSU -15 winner; 1-0 UAB @ ECU result UAB +16.5 winner; 1-0 NMSU @ SJSU result NMSU +10.5 winner; 1-0 FSU @ Idaho +6 result FSU +6 winner; 1-0 ULL @ FIU -17 result ULL +17 winner; 1-0 UF @ Kent +17 result UF -17 winner; 0-1 LT @ MSU -17 result LT +17 winner; 0-1 UCONN @ BUFF +9.5 result Yukon -9.5 winner; 1-0 VAN @ USCe -16 result USCe -16 winner; 1-0 UNR @ TT -20.5 result UNR +20.5 winner; 1-0 NEB @ WYOM +24 result NEB -24 winner; 1-0 TUL @ BOISE result Tulsa +28 winner; 1-0 ORE @ AZ +14.5 result Ore -14.5 winner; 0-1 USC @ ASU -2.5 result ASU -2.5 winner; 1-0 Results: 14-8 Home: 6-5 Road: 8-2 Home teams are still making a profit. 18-13 for the year. Road teams killed it in this situation, doubt that keeps up. Week 5 USF @ PITT +2 0-1 Miss St @ UGA -7 0-1 Minn @ Mich -20.5 0-1 Toledo @ Temple -7 1-0 AFA @ Navy -2 1-0 Kent @ LSU -29.5 1-0 MSU @ OSU -3 1-0 CIN @ MIAOH +13.5 0-1 UNR @ Boise -27.5 0-1 GT @ NCSU +10.5 1-0 AUB @ USCe -10.5 1-0 BGSU @ WV -20.5 1-0 SJSU @ CSU -3 1-0 CLEM @ VT -7 0-1 BALL St @ OU -37 1-0 Mem @ MTSU -22 1-0 Rice @ USM -15 0-1 ND @ PURDUE +13 1-0 Ole Miss @ FRESNO St -4.5 1-0 Ore St @ ASU -17.5 1-0 Results: 13-7 Home: 3-3 Road: 10-4 Season: 44-36 Home: 21-16 Away: 23-20 Week 6 Iowa @ PSU -4 1-0 WKU @ MTSU -12 0-1 MSU @ UAB +17 1-0 UL @ UNC -14.5 1-0 Yukon @ WV -20 0-1 Kent @ USCe -21 1-0 Mem @ Rice -21 1-0 Army @ Miaoh +2.5 1-0 BGSU @ WMU -11 0-1 FIU @ Akron +19 0-1 Ill @ Indiana +14.5 1-0 BC @ Clemson -21 0-1 Kent St @ NIU -17 1-0 USM @ Navy -2.5 0-1 LaTech @ Idaho +4 1-0 aTm @ TT +6 0-1 Col @ Stan -29 0-1 Wazzu @ UCLA -4 1-0 SJSU @ BYU -12.5 1-0 RESULT: 11-8 Home: 7-2 Road: 4-6 Week 7 Toledo @ BGSU +8 USCe @ Miss St +3 Bay @ TAM -8 Miami @ UNC -2.5 Navy @ Rutgers -4 OSU @ Illinois -4 Ok St @ UT +7.5 BYU @ Ore St -3 BSU @ CSU +32 VT @ WF +7 UGA @ VU +11 Ida @ NMSU -1 OU @ KU +35 USU @ FSU +3 UAB @ TULSA -21 RESULT: 10-5
Home underdogs in week 1 MSU @ Mem +30.........result Mem +30 loser; underdog 0-1 TCU @ BAY +4............result Bay +4 winner; underdog 1-0 BYU @ Ole Miss +2......result OM +2 winner; underdog 1-0 CSU @ NMex +6.5.....result NM +6.5 winner; underdog 1-0 Ohio @ NMex St +6.5..result NMSU +6.5 loser; underdog 0-1 Week one record: home underdogs 3-2 Mountain West home underdogs 1-0 bold indicates conference game Home underdogs in week 2 Iowa @ Iowa St +6................result Iowa St +6 winner; underdog 1-0 SDSU @ Army +9.5...............result Army +9.5 winner; underdog 1-0 Miss St @ Auburn +5.5........result Auburn +5.5 winner; underdog 1-0 SoCar @ UGA +3..................result SoCar -3 push; underdog 0-0 Stan @ Duke +20..................result Stan -20 winner; underdog 0-1 NCSU @ WF +2....................result WF +2 winner; underdog 1-0 Tulsa @ Tulane +12.............result Tulsa -12 winner; underdog 0-1 Alabama @ PSU +9.5..............result Alabama -9.5 winner; underdog 0-1 TCU @ AFA +1......................result TCU -1 winner; underdog 0-1 Purdue @ Rice +2...................result Rice +2 winner; underdog 1-0 So Miss @ Marshall +6.5.......result Marshall +6.5 winner; underdog 1-0 CAL @ Colorado +6.5............result Colorado +6.5 winner; underdog 1-0 VT @ ECU +17........................result ECU +17 winner; underdog 1-0 Tem @ Akron +15.................result Temple -15 winner; underdog 0-1 NIU @ Kansas +4.5.................result Kansas +4.5 winner; underdog 1-0 GT @ MTSU +11.....................result GT -11 winner; underdog 0-1 UVA @ Indiana +7..................result Indiana +7 winner; underdog 1-0 Navy @ WKY +9.5..................result Navy -9.5 winner; underdog 0-1 Hou @ UNT +22.....................result Houston -22 winner; underdog 0-1 ND @ Mich +3........................result Michigan +3 winner; underdog 1-0 Result: 11-8 SEC: 1-0-1 ACC: 1-0 P12: 1-0 MWC: 0-1 CUSA: 1-1 MAC: 0-1 Home underdogs week 3 LSU @ MSU +3 result LSU -3 winner; 0-1 Boise @ Toledo +20 result Boise -20 winner; 0-1 PSU @ Temple +7.5 result Temple +7.5 winner; 1-0 Ole Miss @ Vandy +1.5 result Vandy +1.5 winner; 1-0 Texas @ UCLA +3.5 result Tex -3.5 winner; 0-1 TTech @ New Mex +22 result TT -22 winner; 0-1 NWest @ Army +7.5 result Army +7.5 winner; 1-0 Nevada @ SJSU +7 result SJSU +7 winner; 1-0 Hou @ LaTech +7 result LT +7 winner; 1-0 OU @ FSU +3 result OU -3 winner; 0-1 Hawaii @ UNLV +20.5 result UNLV +20.5 winner; 1-0 Ok St @ Tulsa +13.5 result OSU -13.5 winner; 0-1 Stanford @ Zona +9.5 result Stanford -9.5 winner; 0-1 Result: 6-7 SEC: 1-1 WAC: 1-0 P12: 0-1 Week 4 SMU @ Memphis +22 result SMU -22 winner; 0-1 UGA @ Ole Miss +10 result UGA -10 winner; 0-1 Army @ Ball St +4 result BSU +4 winner; 1-0 VT @ Marshall +20.5 result Marshall +20.5 winner; 1-0 LSU @ WV +5.5 result LSU -5.5 winner; 0-1 Florida @ Kent +19 result UF -19 winner; 0-1 ND @ Pitt +7 result Pitt +7 winner; 1-0 FSU @ Clem +3 result Clemson +3 winner; 1-0 FSU @ Idaho +6 result FSU -6 winner; 0-1 NEB @ Wyom +23.5 result NEB -23.5 winner; 0-1 Ore @ Arizona +15 result Ore -15 winner; 0-1 Indiana @ UNT +7 result UNT +7 winner; 1-0 Result: 5-7 Not a strong trend so far this season Week 5 Pit +2 1-0 UTEP +17 1-0 Indiana +17 1-0 Kansas +6 0-1 BC +2.5 0-1 MIA OH +13.5 0-1 NCSU +10.5 1-0 KSU +3.5 1-0 CMU +8.5 1-0 ISU +9.5 0-1 UNM +2.5 0-1 UF +4 0-1 Purdue +12.5 0-1 ECU +6.5 0-1 Result: 6-8 Week 6 Fresno St +20.5 0-1 UAB +17 0-1 WF +11 1-0 Miaoh +2.5 1-0 Akron +19 1-0 Ball St +8.5 0-1 Indiana +14.5 0-1 Ore St +2 1-0 Buff +8.5 1-0 Rutgers +7 1-0 Utah +4 0-1 KSU +3 1-0 Idaho +4 0-1 NW +7 0-1 TT +9 1-0 ULL +6.5 1-0 ULM +2.5 0-1 Tulane +10.5 1-0 SDSU +3.5 0-1 RESULT: 10-9 DONE WITH THIS, NOT STRONG ENOUGH
Week 1 unranked home favorites vs ranked opponent n/a in week 1 week 2 unranked home favorites vs ranked opponent 21 Missouri @ ASU -7.5 result Missouri +7.5 winner; 0-1 25 TCU @ AFA -1 result TCU +1 winner; 0-1 Results: 0-2 Week 3 15 Mich St @ ND -4.5 result ND -4.5 winner; 1-0 19 Auburn @ Clem -3 result Clem -3 winner; 1-0 20 WV @ Maryland -2 result WV +2 winner; 0-1 18 ASU @ Illinois -1.5 result Ill -1.5 winner; 1-0 16 OSU @ Miami -2.5 result Miami -2.5 winner; 1-0 Result: 4-1 Week 4 n/a Week 5 23 Mich St @ OSU -3 (interesting that Mich St has been in this position before) Result: 0-1 Week 6 n/a Wek 7 18 Kansas St @ Texas Tech -3 RESULT: 0-1
Week 2 RLM FIU @ Louisville -4 open; -3.5 current; 56% result 1-0 Iowa @ Iowa St +7 open; +6 current; 15% result 1-0 Central Mich @ Kentucky -13 open; -10.5 current; 53% result 0-1 SDSU @ Army +10 open; +9.5 current; 23% result 1-0 Toledo @ Ohio St -20.5 open; -18 current; 82% result 1-0 Miss St @ Auburn +6 open; +5.5 current; 35% result 1-0 No Ill @ Kansas +5.5 open; +4.5 current; 38% result 1-0 Cincy @ Tenn -6 open; -4 current; 59% result 0-1 Tulsa @ Tulane +15 open; +12 current; 20% result 0-1 VT @ ECU +19.5 open; +17 current; 31% result 1-0 Hawaii @ UW -3.5 open; -5.5 current; 40% (could be a play) result 1-0 Alabama @ Penn St +10.5 open; +10 current; 19% result 0-1 TCU @ AFA +2 open; +1 current; 16% result 0-1 So Miss @ Marshall +8.5 open; +7.5 current; 27% result 1-0 FSU @ NEB -28 open; -27.5 current; 67% result 1-0 BSU @ So Fla -21.5 open; -20 current; 59% result 0-1 Hou @ UNT +22.5 open; +21.5 current; 18% result 0-1 Hawaii @ UW is the only game where the majority is on the underdog and the favorite is larger. Results: 10-7 Week 3 RLM Eastern Michigan @ Michigan -29 open; -28.5 current; 58% result 1-0 PSU @ Temple +10 open; +7.5 current; 30% result 1-0 Tenn @ UF -8.5 open; -9.5 current; 47% result 1-0 Washington @ Nebraska -17.5 open; -17 current; 56% result 1-0 NWestern @ Army +9.5 open; +7.5 current; 24% result 1-0 Navy @ SoCar -18.5 open; -17 current; 52% result 1-0 Idaho @ TAM -37 open; -35.5 current; 77% result 1-0 ASU @ Illinois +1.5 open; -1.5 current; 42% result 1-0 OSU @ Miami -2 open; -2.5 current; 35% result 1-0 Utah @ BYU -6.5 open; -3.5 current; 62% result 1-0 OSU @ Tulsa +14 open; +13 current; 11% result 0-1 Stanford @ U of A +9.5 open; +9 current; 19% result 0-1 Ark St @ VTech -26 open; -24 current; 64% result 1-0 Troy @ Arkansas -24 open; -22.5 current; 80% result 1-0 Results: 12-2 (damn) 2 games where majority was on underdog and favorite got larger (Florida and Miami). Both favorites covered. 2-0 Week 4 RLM KSU @ Miami -13 open; -12.5 current; 73% result 1-0 Temple @ Maryland -9 open; -8 current 64% result 1-0 CMU @ Mich St -23.5 open; 21.5 current; 78% result 0-1 BGSU @ Mia Oh -6 open; -3.5 current; 56% result 1-0 Ark @ Bama -12.5 open; -11 current;56% result 0-1 CAL @ UW -3 open; -1 current; 60% result 0-1 Fres St @ Idaho +6 open; +3 current; 32% result 0-1 UCONN @ Buffalo +10 open; +9 current; 42% result 0-1 UCLA @ Ore St -3 open; -4.5 current; 49% result 0-1 UNR @ TTech -21 open; -15.5 current; 78% result 1-0 Ok St @ Tam -3 open; -4.5 current; 35% result 0-1 Nebraska @ Wyoming +22.5 open; +21 current; 36% result 0-1 Missouri @ OU -21 open; -19.5 current; 65% result 0-1 Tulsa @ Boise -32.5 open; -28 current; 76% result 1-0 FAU @ Auburn -32 open; -31.5 current; 77% result 1-0 ULM @ Iowa -17.5 open; -17 current; 67% result 0-1 MTSU @ Troy -12.5 open; -12 current; 61% result 1-0 Indiana @ North Texas +7.5 open; +6 current; result 1-0 Result: 8-10 First losing week for this angle. Still 30-19. Week 6 Illinois @ Indiana -16.5; -14; 46% 0-1 BC @ Clemson -21.5; -21; 79% 0-1 Uconn @ WV -20; -19; 81% 0-1 Iowa @ PSU -2.5; -4; 30% (this movement is 2-1) 1-0 Pitt @ Rutgers +9.5; +7; 31% 1-0 CMU @ NCSU -12; -10.5; 71% 0-1 Memphis @ Rice -21; -20.5; 55% 0-1 BGSU @ WMU -11; -10; 67% 0-1 Temple @ Ball St +11; +9.5; 28% 0-1 KSU @ NIU -17; -16.5; 67% 0-1 Auburn @ Arkansas -9; -10; 44% 1-0 LaTech @ Idaho +4; +3.5; 42% 0-1 KU @ OSU -33; -32; 52% 0-1 ECU @ Houston -12; -11; 67% 0-1 Iowa St @ Baylor -15.5; -15; 75% 0-1 FSU @ WF +13.5; +10; 35% 1-0 Missouri @ KSU +3.5; +4; 65% (this movement has not occurred yet this season) 0-1 Wyoming @ USU -9; -12; 37% 1-0 UF @ LSU -13.5; -13; 79% 0-1 FIU @ Akron +20; +17; 28% 1-0 ASU @ ULM +3.5; +2.5; 39% 0-1 RESULT: 6-15 Terrible week. Home favorite vs public dog went 3-0, making it 5-1 for the season. Games 60% and over are 22-13 (16 games this week) Home favorites vs public dogs are 2-1 (3 games this week) Road favorites vs public dogs have not occurred yet this season (1 game this week)
Public Road Underdog Week 1 again don't have the data, so we go to week 2 Public Road Underdogs week 2 Hawaii +5.5 @ UW . Hawaii 60% result UW -5.5 winner; 1-0 Utah +8.5 @ USC . Utah 59% result USC -8.5 winner; 1-0 ULL +8 @ Kent St . ULL 73% result ULL +8 winner; 0-1 Results: 2-1 Week 3 Iowa St +4 @ Uconn result 0-1 WV +2 @ Maryland result 0-1 Auburn +3 @ Clemson result 1-0 CSU +7 @ CRado result 1-0 Tenn +9.5 @ Florida result 1-0 MSU +4.5 @ ND result 1-0 Virginia +10 @ UNC result 1-0 Wazzu +5.5 @ SDSU result 1-0 L'Ville +5.5 @ Ktucky result 0-1 Result: 6-3 Week 4 Tulane +10.5 @ Duke result Duke -10.5 winner; 1-0 Toledo +3 @ Syracuse result Syracuse -3 push; 0-0 Ohio +4 @ Rutgers result Rutgers -4 winner; 1-0 Vanderbilt +16 @ USCe result USCe -16 winner; 1-0 Ok St +3 @ TAM result OK St +3 winner; 0-1 USC +3 @ ASU result ASU -3 winner; 1-0 MTSU +12 @ Troy result MTSU +12 winner; 0-1 Result: 4-2 Pretty consistent so far Week 5 Utah St +7 @ BYU 0-1 Rutgers +2.5 @ Syracuse 0-1 Mich St +3 @ OSU 0-1 AZ +13.5 @ USC 0-1 UW +7 @ Utah 0-1 Auburn +10.5 @ USCe 0-1 Clemson +7 @ VT (this is the biggest so far) 0-1 Result: 0-7 wow Week 6 Iowa +4 @ PSU 1-0 Auburn +10 @ Ark 1-0 AFA +14.5 @ ND 1-0 KU +33 @ OSU 1-0 Wyoming +9 @ Ut St 1-0 FAU +5 @ UNT 1-0 RESULT: 6-0 Week 7 Mia +3 @ UNC Baylor +8 @ TAM Mich +3 @ MSU KSU +3 @ TT NW +6 @ Iowa RESULT: 3-2 WITH RLM: 1-1 Week 8 Ball St 1-0 Miami 1-0 FSU 1-0 LSU 1-0 ND 0-1 UTEP 1-0 USM 1-0 Cal 1-0 OU 0-1 Ark St 1-0 LOU 1-0 Zona 1-0 RESULT: 10-2
Where do you get your % for betting public on from? I know you've posted it before but I can not find it
After 6 weeks, I think I'm going to reduce all of this down to just Home favorites vs public dogs with RLM...anybody else is free to keep track of whatever they want (obviously) but I mean in this thread...
Well, that would be included in the RLM games...since I posted every RLM game of the week regardless of home, away, percentage size or point movement amount....but I stopped tracking all angles 2 weeks ago and have just focused on public road underdogs.
I played this angle this weekend and went 9-3. Pretty solid winning percentage. I think it was 10-3 for the whole week. That's a solid winning percentage.