Doc Sports 5 Unit Play. #118 Take Under 41 in Atlanta @ San Francisco (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) San Francisco 17, Atlanta 14. 4 Unit Play. #106 Take Carolina -3 ½ over Washington (Sunday 12 pm Fox) Carolina 24, Washington 16. 4 Unit Play. #124 Take Seattle -1 over Jacksonville (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) Seattle 27, Jacksonville 17. Note: Line my change on this game with QB Hasselbeck's status, we still recommend the pick. 4 Unit Play. #126 Take Over 46 in Indianapolis @ Tennessee (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 24. Strong Opinion Plays: #116 Take St. Louis +10 over Minnesota
Diceituponline Vikings -10 = 25 Dimes 49ers -2 = 10 Dimes Jets -2 = 10 Dimes 3 Team Teaser = 10 Dimes Pitt -.5 (tease down 10) Giants -4 (tease down 10) Dallas +2 (tease down 10)
Norm Hitzges NFL Sunday hovering around .500 Double Play ·Philadelphia -14.5 vs Tampa Single Plays ·New England -3 vs Denver ·Carolina -3.5 vs Washington ·Seattle pk vs Jacksonville ·Tennessee +3.5 vs Indianapolis ·Kansas City +8 vs Dallas ·St. Louis/Minnesota Under 41 ·Philly/Tampa Under 42.5 ·New England/Denver Under 41 ·Houston/Arizona Over 50
WUNDERDOG Complimentary Picks and Analysis Game: Minnesota at St. Louis (Sunday 10/11 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: St. Louis +10.5 (-115) There isn't an argument to be made here that St. Louis belongs on the field against the Vikings as the Vikes are a perfect 4-0 and the Rams a very imperfect 0-4. We saw on Monday night a Vikings team that looks like Super Bowl material. But that was a huge game for them and Brett Favre. How do they get excited here, on the short week, facing the Rams after that huge Monday Night game? Brett Favre feels like he just won the Super Bowl as beating the Packers was about as important to him. To add fuel to the letdown-fire, the Vikings have monster games vs. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay again coming over the next month. If there were ever time for a breather, this week is it. The Rams offense has already been shut-out twice and has produced 21 points for opposing teams while generating just 24 themselves. This has to be as ugly a looking game as you could find on the card. That thought has been embraced by the public as well as they are lining up at nearly 90% on the Vikings, as if they already knew the final score. If the NFL truly worked that way everyone would be a millionaire. Sports bettors would be punching these giveaway easy win games each week and living the high-life in Beverly Hills. The problem for those folks is that the the NFL doesn't work that way. Despite favorites covering at a 67% rate the past two weeks, ugly is what covers in the NFL long term. If it didn't work this way, the bookmakers would be broke. So the argument here isn't to promote St. Louis as a good team, or disrobe a 4-0 Viking team. Instead the case is to be made for how classic an NFL game this is. A similar setup occurred in week six a year ago as the high-flying Dallas Cowboys were installed as a 9-point favorite coming to St. Louis. The Cowboys lost that game by 20! The Lions didn't win a single game last year, but they went on the road in their last six games as a double-digit dog and went 6-0 ATS. The fact is, 0-4 teams are 34-17 ATS since 1990. How ugly do you thinkthose teams looked going into those games? It doesn't get much uglier than 0-4. But, they got the money 67% of the time. Put those same teams up as a double-digit dog and they are 14-4 ATS and if they are a double-digit home dog, they are 3-0! While Joe Square is afraid of the chance he'll have his money on a team that loses 27-3, we aren't Joe Square. We are willing to risk that outcome, knowing that long term we are on the right side. Ugly is where the money is in the NFL and mine is on the Rams.
Strike Point NFL - Week Five 5-Unit Play. #401 Take Minnesota -10 over St. Louis (Sunday 10/11 - 1 p.m. EST) 2-Unit Play. #406 Take Carolina -3.5 over Washington (Sunday 10/11 - 1 p.m. EST) 3-Unit Play. #419 Take New England -3 over Denver (Sunday 10/11 - 4:15 p.m. EST) 3-Unit Play. #425 Take Indianapolis -3.5 over Tennessee (Sunday 10/11 - 8:20 p.m. EST) 2-Unit Play. #427 Take New York Jets -1.5 over Miami (Monday 10/12 - 8:30 p.m. EST)
Sixth Sense BEST BETS YTD 16-10 +15.0% 3% CAROLINA –3.5 3% BALTIMORE –8.5 3% SAN FRANCISCO –2.5 3% DENVER +3
Allen Eastman (ACE-ACE) picks $2500.00 Take #419 New England (-3) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11) only game that is a part of the "99 system". Bill Belichick has just dominated his former coaches. He beat up on Eric Mangini when Mangini was with the Jets and Romeo Crennel when Crennel was with the Browns. Now he is going to beat up on Josh McDaniels. I think that the Broncos are in a bit of a letdown spot after barely beating Dallas at home last week. Denver is 4-0 but they still haven’t played the quality of schedule that would make them a serious threat. The Patriots only have one loss and that was against a very good Jets team. But other than that, the Patriots have played some of the better teams in the league like Atlanta and Baltimore. They are going to be very focused for this game because you know that Belichick wants to beat his former pupil. New England always struggled out in Denver. But that was against Mike Shanahan. Shanahan had a very strong system and he was able to find the weakness in New England’s armor. But McDaniels is basically trying to run the same offense and the same system that he ran when he was in New England. I will take Tom Brady over Kyle Orton and I think that the Patriots will take care of business once again. New England is 36-16-1 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS as a favorite. $200.00 Take #405 Washington (+3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11) I think that this is a very sharp play for us. It seems like everyone is on Carolina this week. But I don’t understand why. The Panthers have gotten blown out in all of their games this year and I don’t think that they are a very good team right now. A lot of people are down on the Redskins because they haven’t been blowing out the bad teams. But their offense isn’t built that way. This is a team that wants to keep the score low, run the ball, and win close games. So far they have been pretty good at doing that. I think that Washington will be able to stop the Carolina run but I don’t think that Carolina can slow down Clinton Portis and the Redskins rushing attack. This will be a close game and getting points with the better team is too good to pass up. $800.00#418 San Francisco (-2.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11) San Francisco has been dominating so far at home this year and they are one miracle Favre pass away from being undefeated. Atlanta is coming off a bye week but I think they are going to have a hard time getting back into the flow against a very big, very physical Niners team. San Francisco was able to shut down Adrian Peterson two weeks ago in Minnesota and I think that they are going to shut down Michael Turner, who has not been as strong for the Falcons this season. All the Niners have done since Singletary has taken over is win games. They are 4-0 ATS this year and they are now 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games since Singletary has taken over. The oddsmakers are giving us a gift here at 2.5 instead of 3.0, but I don’t think it will matter. I like the Niners to get another double-digit win at home and we will collect in the process. $2000.00 Take #425 Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11) People are just having too much trouble accepting the fact that Tennessee isn’t very good this year. This is not the same team that went 13-3 in the regular season in 2008 but the betting public just can’t admit it. Well, we will keep collecting on Peyton Manning, who has been as sharp as any quarterback in the league. Tennessee didn’t even show up last week against Jacksonville and it was shocking to see a Jeff Fisher team play with no passion like that. They should be getting at least a touchdown from an Indianapolis team that has already notched impressive road wins at Miami and at Arizona, two playoff teams from last year that are also struggling. It’s never a bad idea to put your money on Peyton Manning and we will do it again this week. $300.00 Take #428 Miami (+2) over New York Jets (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11) How about another big Monday Night Football winner! Everyone loves the Jets right now and I expect that the public will keep pounding them now that they traded for Braylon Edwards. Not us. Miami has played well for three straight weeks but just doesn’t have the wins to show for it. This is also their second Monday Night Football game already this year and I think that it will be less of a distraction and be a big advantage for them. The Jets were physically beaten in New Orleans last week and I think that they have lost a little bit of their swagger. Miami is one of the more physical teams in the NFL and I think that they will be able to stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them. So far he hasn’t proven to this capper that he can do that. Hou+5.5.......................................$200.00 Teaser Hos +15.5 SF+7.5 MIA +11.........................................$200.00 MY hilton picks NE IND SF HOU MIA 15-5 2ND PLAY IN THE TOP 40 ONLY 3 OF US ARE ON MIA 11 ON NYJ!! THATS WHAT i LIKE TO SEE BEST TO ALL ACE
Maddux #402 - NFL - 3 units on St. Louis +10 #406 - NFL - 5 units on Carolina -4 #407 - NFL - 3 units on Tampa Bay +15.5 #424 - NFL - 4 units on Seattle -1 #426 - NFL - 3 units on Tennessee +3.5 #428 - NFL - 3 units on Miami +1.5
RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK Pick # 1 Cincinnati Bengals / Baltimore Ravens Under 42 -110
Colin Cowherd New England minus the points (NE wins 28-13) Carolina minus the points (Panthers win 27-12) Cincinnati plus the points (Ravens win 26-24) NY Jets minus the points (Jets win 27-9) Atlanta plus the points (Falcons win 27-24)
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS 5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month) Washington/ Carolina Under 37.5: Panthers have a 23.8 Offensive YPP (Yards Per Point), while the Skins YPP is 23.2. Just a recap for you, an average or good offensive YPP is 14 or below. Panther To's have given their opponents short field the last few weeks, but I feel the time off will have helped them correct some of the problems, which should me more time consuming possessions by them. The Skins offense is a mess and should have problems scoring vs the Fired up Panthers defense that has played pretty well thus far. The Skins defense is very solid this year so I really see scoring a problem on both sides. I see less than 30 points here. 4 UNIT PLAYS SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Atlanta: The niners defense has been strong this year as they are 6th overall and 3rd vs the run. Falcons love to run the ball but are just 23rd in that department this year. Niners are 28th in total offense, but their offensive YPP is an amazing 10.4 and they will be taking on the 30th ranked defense. Niners are just too much for atlanta too handle here and should win this one by 7+. Indy -4 over TENNESSEE: Titans 31st ranked passing defense will take on Peyton and his top ranked passing offense. Nuff Said. This one will be over early. 3 UNIT PLAYS (Power Angle Play) Minnesota -10 over ST LOUIS: The vikes are on letdown alert or this play would be rated higher. Teams only need to be at 50% these days to take care of the Rams, so the letdown shouldn't be a problem anyway. Vikes by at leat 2 TD's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- PLay against a home dog that was shutout on the road last week. Angle is 22-9 since 1988. Minnesota/ Houston Over 50: No running in this one as both teams are in the bottom 29 of that department,, while both offenses are 9th or better in passing. A shootout in the desert. 2 UNIT PLAYS Dallas/ Kansas City Under 42.5 CAROLINA -3.5 over Washington Giants/ Raiders Under 38.5 1 UNIT PLAYS Cincinnati +9 over BALTIMORE Pats/ Denver Under 41.5
Handicapper: Evan Altemus Sport: NFL Football Game: Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills - Sunday October 11, 2009 1:00 pm Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 41.5 (-110) (Play of the Day) Cleveland’s offense got a boost last week by making the change to Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback. He threw for 270 yards against the Bengals, and Jerome Harrison rushed for over 120 yards. The Braylon Edwards trade won’t affect them because he didn’t even have an impact on last week’s game. In addition, there were reports that he was disgruntled and not motivated to play. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense is still a problem. They have given up 23 points or more in every game this season, and they should have given up more points than they did last week. Buffalo’s offense will have no problem getting going in this game. The Bills only scored 17 combined points in their last 2 games, but that is because they were playing against stout defenses in Miami and New Orleans. Because of their recent offensive struggles, I expect Buffalo to open things up in this game. Sharp bettors jumped all over this line when it came out, increasing it by two points. Look for this game to easily fly over the total. 5 UNIT SELECTION
Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 10/11/09 - 1:00 PM u double-dime bet 406 CAR -3.5 (-110) betus vs 405 WAS Analysis: Carolina -3.5 Have no doubts Tampa Bay† has no offense and no QB and Washington barely eaked out a win last week. Carolina HUNGRY for a win and off a bad loss at Dallas, they are well rested. Carolinas defense should show multiple blitz schemes against QB Campbell here and the run game of Carolina should prove difficult for Washibngtons defense, which is respectable. Remember schedule is key, Washington has played really no one, while Carolina has played better teams and really blew a Monday Night game at Dallas. Better QB (barely), better Running game, equal defense, better coach all in favor of Panthers in a MUST WIN SCENARIO..at home. In Washingtons last 12 games, they have had 1 cover!! Carolina by 10. Play 2 Units..Top Play Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 10/11/09 - 4:15 PM u dime bet 419 NEP -3.0 (-110) betus vs 420 DEN Analysis: New England -3 to 3.5 max Yes Denvers defense real deal on stats, but Cincy, Cleveland, Oakland not top contenders and Dallas cannot get out of their own way and moved chains against them all day long. Dallas had more yards and first downs last week in a loss. The Pats at home, against Denvers head coach who used to be a Patriot coach will have Bellichek wanting the win here big time, will be fo‹cused after big time win against Baltrimore where they did what they wanted on offense against a better defense. Brady getting better every week, offense starting to click and Denver attack on offense on the road is suspect here. Everyone thinks Denver will cover this and some think outright...beating a iffy Dallas team at home does little to boost the fact New England is getting it together and with Denver at 4-0, they have the Pats full attention. Play 1 Unit on New England Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 10/11/09 - 4:05 PM u dime bet 417 ATL 2.5 (-110) betus vs 418 SFX Analysis: Atlanta +2.5 Have a sneaky feeeling here that Niners are good, but not that good. They… have beaten up some weak sisters here and not impressive wins as you look at the schedule. Atanta is well rested and a better team with a better QB. Wins over Seattle , Arizona and St. Louis not impressive for San Fran when looking at competition, I like Atlanta to win outright. Vegas oddsmakers beggin you to take San Fran here with this line under a fall number. Play 1 Unit on Atlanta Bonus 2 Team 6 point Teaser - Tease NY Giants down to -9.5 and tease Houston to +11.5 for a 1 Unit Bonus Teaser Play.
DCI 36-26 ATS ON SIDES FOR THE SEASON Sunday, October 11, 2009 BALTIMORE 25, Cincinnati 12 BUFFALO 23, Cleveland 15 CAROLINA 21, Washington 12 Pittsburgh 33, DETROIT 14 Dallas 27, KANSAS CITY 18 N.Y. GIANTS 30, Oakland 7 PHILADELPHIA 36, Tampa Bay 9 Minnesota 33, ST. LOUIS 12 SAN FRANCISCO 23, Atlanta 18 ARIZONA 30, Houston 23 New England 22, DENVER 18 Jacksonville 23, SEATTLE 19 Indianapolis 23, TENNESSEE 16
DUNKEL NFL Houston at Arizona The Texans look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Houston is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks. SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11 Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (10/7) Game 401-402: Minnesota at St. Louis Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 135.006; St. Louis 122.071 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 37 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Under Game 403-404: Dallas at Kansas City Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.240; Kansas City 126.336 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 47 Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over Game 405-406: Washington at Carolina Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.759; Carolina 129.160 Dunkel Line: Even; 33 Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 37 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.148; Philadelphia 145.382 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 22; 49 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14 1/2); Over Game 409-410: Oakland at NY Giants Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.808; NY Giants 140.927 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 42 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 14 1/2; 38 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-14 1/2); Over Game 411-412: Cleveland at Buffalo Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.990; Buffalo 125.276 Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 6; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over Game 413-414: Cincinnati at Baltimore Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.347; Baltimore 142.959 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 14 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-8); Over Game 415-416: Pittsburgh at Detroit Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Detroit 122.765 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over Game 417-418: Atlanta at San Francisco Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.543; San Francisco 135.325 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under Game 419-420: New England at Denver Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.175; Denver 138.180 Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 37 Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under Game 421-422: Houston at Arizona Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Arizona 132.561 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 53 Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Over Game 423-424: Jacksonville at Seattle Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 134.276; Seattle 128.932 Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 35 Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; No Total Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); N/A Game 425-426: Indianapolis at Tennessee Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.639; Tennessee 131.841 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8; 48 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over
The Boys NFL Oct 11 '09 1:00p Washington Redskins vs Carolina Panthers Take: Carolina Panthers -3-115 The Panthers were 8-0 at home last year in the regular season, winning 6 of them by at least 9 pts, and all of them by at least 3. The Redskins have lost their 2 road games by 5 and 6 pts, and gave the lowly Lions their 1st win in 19 games, Clinton Portis is hurting, and they have a serious lack of offense outside of him. I think Carolina gets their 1st win here easily, and look for big games from DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith. San Francisco 49ers -2-110 Denver Broncos +3½-110 New York Jets -2-110
3gwins SUNDAY ACTION: NFL FOOTBALL: 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH: WASHINGTON REDSKINS 10* BONUS BLOWOUT: ARIZONA 5* Denver 5* Tennessee 4* Atlanta
Gloria Lozano st.louis +10 (5* big play) new england -3 (4*) normal play tennessee +4 (3*) small play
Sunday NFL System Club Play-GC- The Sunday system club play is on the Newyork Giants. Game 410 at 1:00 eastern. The Giants are clicking on all cylinders so far this year. Today they get the 1-3 Oakland Raiders. The boys in blue qualify in a solid system that is 20-0 straight up and 15-4-1 ats. What we want to do is play on home favorites from -10.5 to -16 if they are off back to back wins and covers. Theses teams come home from their road success and do not skip a beat. As an added advantage they get an Oakland team that travels cross country to play in an early 1pm eastern game. This traveling situation has been troubling for West Coast teams through the years,especially those who are under .500. The Giants biggest concern here is the status of Qb Eli Manning. He is scheduled to make the start as of this writing. Oakland has major trouble on offense. They have scored 9 points over the last 2 weeks and are just 2-10 ats on the road after scoring 10 or less. Look for the Giants to coast here on Sunday. In late phone action I have the NFL Game of the Month from 5 different systems.This big game goes late afternoon, those with me last week cashed a huge 6 unit play on Tampa Bay. I also have a rare 13-1 Dog system that dates to 1980 and a Big non divisional Dominator system side plus a MLB Power angle play.Take the Giants as the system club play. BOL GC.
Black Widow 6* Widow Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +9 Once again, the Bengals aren't getting any respect from the odds makers. Perhaps when they upset the Baltimore Ravens Sunday, they will start taking notice. Cincinnati should be 4-0 this season if it wasn't for a miracle by Denver in Week 1. Baltimore is a very good team, but they aren't 9 points better than the Bengals Sunday. Ravens' players were making all kinds of excuses after their 27-21 loss to the Patriots last week, and it just goes to show the character of some of their players. The Bengals have a complete team this season, which is what it takes to win in this league consistently. Their defense is giving up just 19.0 points/game. Offensively they have balance, rushing for 123 yards/game and passing for 196 yards/game. So far, the Bengals have not gotten the respect they deserve and players know it. They realize this is their chance to put their names back on the map as one of the top teams in the league, a claim they had a few years ago before Carson Palmer went down with a knee injury. But he's back and better than ever, improving with each game. Ochocinco has worked his way back to becoming one of the game's top receivers, catching two touchdown passes last week. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5. Take Cincinnati and the points 4* Pats/Broncos AFC "Side" Surefire on New England -3(+105 bodog) The Denver Broncos are the most overrated team in the league right now because of their 4-0 start. But the Patriots will put an end to the madness by going into Denver and coming out with a win. The Patriots are, by far, the more superior team here and it will show on the scoreboard. The Broncos have been great defensively, but they haven't played an offense like the Patriots. They have played the Browns, Raiders, Bengals who were rusty in Week 1, and the Cowboys who are clearly lacking offensive explosiveness without any proven wide receivers. The Patriots have Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss. They cannot contain these three in four quarters. Not to mention the Patriots' defense is playing great this year. The Pats are giving up just 17.7 points/game this season and 287 yards/game and that's impressive considering they've played the likes of the Falcons, Ravens, Jets and Bills, a much tougher schedule than Denver has faced. New England boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a TD in the Belichick era. Take the Patriots and lay the points. (Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 after locking this line in early in the week)
Black Widow 5* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texans/Cardinals OVER 48(+100at 5dimes) This is easily the best Total for your money Sunday. Yes, it's a lot of points, but not for Houston and Arizona. The Texans are scoring 34.0 points/game on the road and giving up 31.0 points/game on the road this year. Arizona is giving up 25.5 points/game at home. After a bye week, look for the Cardinals to get going offensively with a little extra practice time for Warner and his receivers to gel. Houston is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in dome games since 1992. The Texans are 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Arizona is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. These are two great offenses and two of the worst defenses in the league on display Sunday, making a high-scoring shootout inevitable. Take the OVER 48 points here. 4* Falcons/49ers NFC "Side" Surefire on San Francisco -2(-110 at bodog) The 49ers are 2 seconds away from being 4-0 this season. They have one of the best defenses in the game, and it gives San Francisco a chance to win every contest. Atlanta is 2-1 this season, but in their only road game they looked terrible. The Falcons lost 10-26 at New England in their lone road contest, putting up just 257 yards of total offense in the loss. The Patriots put up 277 passing yards alone, and 168 more rushing to boot. This San Francisco defense is allowing just 13.2 points/game and 284 yards/game, coming off a shutout 35-0 win over the Rams last week behind 3 defensive touchdowns. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The 49ers have won 7 of their last 9 regular season games since Mike Singletary took over. Take San Francisco and lay the points. 4* Redskins/Panthers NFC "Side" Surefire on Carolina -3(-110 at bodog) Carolina is coming off a bye and ready to get going. They are not going to give up on their season, sitting 0-3 right now. But when you look at who they've played it's pretty easy to see why the record is where it is. They have lost to the Eagles, Cowboys and Falcons, three teams with .500 records or better. Now they face easily their weakest competition of the season Sunday in the Washington Redskins. Washington is 2-2 but they are lucky to have two wins. The Redskins beat St. Louis 9-7 at home, a Rams' team that everyone else in the league is demolishing. They beat Tampa Bay 16-13 last week at home, another team that the rest of the league is crushing. They even had to come from behind to beat the Bucs. Carolina is still the better team here Sunday in spite of their record, and that will show on the scoreboard once this one goes final. Look for the Panthers to get back to running the football which is their strength, because Washington has not been good against the run. The Redskins have given up at least 100 yards rushing in all 4 games this season, allowing an average of 128 rushing yards/contest. This is also the same Washington team that allowed the Detroit Lions to end their 19-game losing streak a few weeks back. Carolina is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. They have gone away from what they do best, and over the bye week they have figured out that they need to get back to pounding the rock. Take Carolina and lay the points. (Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 after we got in on this line early in the week)
34Paytonplace 15unit- Carolina -4 (Top play) Well the redskins lost to the lions and then just got by a pathetic tampa bay club at home this redskins offense is inept now they go on the road to carolina who has struggled but they have been good in the past at home and there coming off there bye week where they got alot off there chest and challenging one another have to not only believe that they come to play here but think coach fox takes the ball out of qb delhomme hands and pounds the rock here when your in need of a win you have to get tough and that happens up front with the offensive line.........Lets back the panthers to get there first win as our top play this week!!!!!!!!! 10unit- New England -3 Denver did a great job beating the cowboys last week but the question is was it great play by the broncos or just terrible play by romo also dallas has no game breaker or go to guy that was obivious late in that game well trust me this pats team has a top qb who is starting to get it going and they can streatch the field also orton was very lucky at least 3 times last week he should have been picked this is without question the best team the broncos have faced so far.....I will back the pats once again here getting another favorable line!!!!!! 8unit- Seattle -1 The jags are coming off 2 very big divisional wins and now must travel cross country to play the seahawks who should have there qb hassleback back and everyone knows the seahawks are very tough at home with that home crowd.........I will take the seahawks at home with a short number against a jags team traveling along way!!!!!! 8unit- Vikings/Rams under 41 Well the vikes are off there emotional win on monday nite traveling to st.louis and the rams are just not very good and with there problems on the offensive line going against and aggressive vikes front line and jared allen not good for the rams but just question the vikes heart here to come in and put this team away i think the vikes do win this rather easily but it just might not be real pretty........I will take the under here and make these two prove it to me!!!!!! 5unit- Kansas city +9 I know the chiefs are awful but just believe that getting this many points in back2back home games is enticing also like i mentioned above this cowboys team just does not have a gamebreaker,,,,,,,So i will back the chiefs and hope they can keep it close!!!!!! 2team parlay- carolina -4/ne -3 2team parlay- sea -1/sea/jax under 44.5 2team parlay- kc +9/minn/stl under 41
Matty Baiungo Redskins (+3½) over @Panthers The Redskins have been good to us this season. Redskins by 3.
Dave Fobare Bengals (+8½) over @Ravens Cinci comes in here off a three game win streak, Baltimore by 1
Kevin O’Neill Texans (+5½) over @Cardinals This season thus far the Texans are 2-2, the Cardinals 1-2. Last year during the regular season the Texans were 8-8, the Cardinals were 9-7. In 2007 both teams were 8-8. In 2006 Houston was 6- 10, Arizona was 5-11. So back to the start of the 2006 season the Texans are 24-28, while the Cardinals are 23-28, with both teams being within a game of one another in the standings each and every year. Importantly, these records were achieved in divisions of remarkably different strength. The Cardinals have played in the weakest division in football over that stretch, benefiting from two games per year against Rams and 49ers teams that have largely been awful over that time, while Seattle has been up and down. The Texans have dealt with a Jacksonville team that has been up and down and Indianapolis and Tennessee clubs that are annually near the top of the powerful AFC. Both teams have some decent playmakers on defense, but struggle overall defensively. It seems that both should be better on D when you look at the rosters. They both have good passing attacks, and feature some of the best receivers in football. The Texans have had the better run offense over the time period we’re looking at, and they averaged 4.3 yards per rush last year to 3.4 yards per rush for the Cardinals. So with all the equality in these two franchises, why is Arizona such a substantial favorite? Obviously the answer is last season’s playoff run. The Cardinals had a magnificent tear through the NFL playoffs, beating a young Atlanta club in their first playoff game, taking out a Carolina team that after the way they’ve started this season is an obvious fraud, and then playing well to beat Philadelphia. The Cards stepped up after some real regular season disappointment against top competition to beat three flawed teams in a weak conference thanks to a 12-3 turnover advantage in those games. They then played exceptionally well in the Super Bowl but lost. Now the Cardinals are dealing with the after-effects of that success. There are egos bruised because they didn’t get paid, undoubtedly there is jealousy toward those who did get the money, and they have an aging quarterback who overcame his recent history of fragility to lead them to the Super Bowl. There are reasons that Super Bowl teams, especially the Super Bowl losers, struggle the year after their successful runs. This is a need game for the Cards but it’s not like the Texans want to pass up an opportunity when they’re in the first of a 4 road games in 5 stretch and they have only one home game between now and the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Cardinals have a good home record the past two years but those were earned against weak divisional opponents and teams overlooking them. Houston fires their best shot here, which may be enough to score the upset. Texans by 1. @Falcons (+2½) over @49ers As Erik projected here last week, the 49ers stampeded the Rams 35-0, showing once again that it is amazing that Kyle Boller is still in the league. Two things happened in that game. First of all, the Niners had to do next to nothing to win the game against the hapless Rams. Teams that generate 13 first downs and 229 yards on 4 yards per play ordinarily don’t find themselves scoring 5 TD’s. And in fact, only two of those TD’s were scored on offense, with the others being a fumble recovery, a fumble return, and an interception return. And both of the offensive scoring drives started in Rams territory. Secondly, the Niners have become the toast of the league. All the post-game shows were talking them up. Not quite to the Broncos level, but there was a lot of “wow! 35-0! We need to pay attention to this team. I mean we need to pay some serious attention to them!” has been the mantra in the media since the Rams win. So the Niners, off an easy, breezy win, will be told all week how good they are. Meanwhile, the Falcons played poorly in New England two weeks ago, and are off their bye week. Obviously the bye is more meaningful later in the season when it comes to healing bumps and bruises, but it doesn’t hurt that the Falcons come off a rare bad game (haven’t been many in the year+ since Mike Smith was hired) and have two weeks to stew over it. Loss of Frank Gore will catch up with the Niners against a decent run defense like Atlanta. The way you hurt the Falcons is through the air, and Frisco’s Shaun Hill has been decent, which is about all you’re going to get out him. Unquestionably the superior quarterback here is Matt Ryan. Interesting subplot to this game was that the reported runner up for the Falcons job a couple of years ago was Mike Singletary, Arthur Blank bypassed him in order to hire Bobby Petrino, of all people. Not really a factor here, just interesting. Singletary might use it to try to motivate his players just a tad. And Singletary is a fine motivator, and a good coach. But we like the performance pattern setup in this one, and find Atlanta to be a solid team. The Falcons won all 5 of their games after losses last year, going 4-1 against the spread. The covers were by 17, 8, 21, and 16. The non-cover was by 2.5 and they had a 3-1 turnover deficit in that game yet still found a way to win. These teams are likely pretty similar in ability, but there’s no Frank Gore and it’s a good setup for a strong Atlanta performance. Falcons by 4.
MTI NFL Selections / Week 5 Side Play 5-Star KANSAS CITY +8’ over Dallas – The Cowboys lost 17-10 in Denver last week. The relied way too much on Tony Romo’s arm rather than the legs of their running backs. Romo threw 42 passes and was sacked five times on their 72 offensive plays. This means that a pass play was called on 47 plays and a run on only 25 plays. What’s really surprising about this is that the game was a close one. When a team passes this much, it’s usually because they are behind. This type of pass/ratio foretells bad things for the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas is 0-23 ATS since November 1993 the week after they threw at least eight passes more than their season-to-date pass attempts per game as a favorite. This is Dallas’ trend number one in the 2009 KillerSports. com NFL Annual. There are still copies of the Annual available. For a special offer that includes a subscription to the newsletter and the Annual, see the back cover of this issue. Note that the Annual has 640 perfect team trends—40 for each team. The SDQL is included for each trend so you can query them yourself and save them to your personal trend file if desired. Dallas was 0-3 ATS in this situation in 2007 and 0-2 last season. In these five most recent games, Dallas is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover by a staggering 17.3 ppg. This margin indicates a 10-point straight up loss here and this result would not surprise us at all. The Cowboys have been HORRENDOUS as big road chalk. Dallas is 0-11 ATS as a TD+ road favorite, going 4-7 straight up. Finally, we have a league-wide, multi-season system involving yards per rush differential that indicates the Chiefs are the play. So far in 2009, the Cowboys have averaged 5.95 yards per carry, which is number one in the league. Kansas City is ranked near the bottom at only 3.72 yards per rush. Those handicappers that are not fluent in SDQL will cite this as a reason to play ON the Cowboys. However, TD+ road favorites that have a season-to-date yards-per-rush that is more than one yard high then their opponent are 0-13 ATS since late 1998, failing to cover by an average of 12.4 ppg. Simply put, a high season-to-date yards per rush is not conducive to covering the spread as a big road dog. The last active date in this situation came in week 7 last season. These Cowboys were a 7-point road favorite vs the Rams and they got hammered 34-14. The Chiefs have faced three tough opponents and the Raiders this season. They lost to Oakland at home on a late TD drive. Their losses to the Ravens, Giants and Eagles in Philadelphia are understandable. We would actually be surprised if the Cowboys won straight up here. Consider the Chiefs on the Moneyline. KANSAS CITY 24 Dallas 13 Newsletter Totals Play 4-Star Cincinnati at Baltimore UNDER 42 – The Ravens are off their first loss of the season to drop to 3-1. The Bengals are off wins in each of the past two weeks to get to 3-1 on the season. We have a league-wide, record-based system for each of these records and both point to the UNDER. Since the start of the database in 1989, the league is 0-9 OU as a single-digit away dog by more than 3 points when they won their last two games to get to 3-1 for the season and they are not off a bye. The league has stayed under by an average of 12.2 ppg in this situation, with two winners in 2008. Also, since the start of the database in 1989, the league is 0-4 OU as a TD+ home favorite off a loss as a dog to drop them to 3-1 on the season. The record of 0-4 is not that strong, but the interesting thing is that these big home favorites have allowed an average of 8.5 ppg and every single on of the four games has stayed under by double digits. The Ravens have produced a string of UNDERs when they are off a loss in a game that was rated close to a toss-up by the linesmakers. Baltimore is 0-8 OU when they are at home off a loss in which the line for the game was within three of pick, as long as that loss was not their home opener. The Ravens have stayed under the total by an average of 10.8 ppg in this situation. This is an important divisional game for Baltimore and they will not risk giving the Bengals any hope by risking an early turnover. They should play it very close-to-the-vest—especially in the early going —waiting for the Bengals to make the first mistake. As evidence, the Ravens are 0-7 OU (-11.6 ppg) at home when they won their last two home games. Last week against the Patriots, the Ravens had 363 yards of total offense and 24 first downs, but they scored only 21 points and seven of them were off a fumble return in the end zone. This is a strong UNDER situation for them, as they are 0-13 OU (-9.7 ppg) since 1997 when they are off a game in which they had at least 330 yards of offense, at least 20 first downs but scored 21 or fewer points. In a similar vein, the Bengals are 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) when they are off a game in which they had 20+ first downs and at least 30 minutes of possession time and both qualifying games from last season stayed under by double digits. Finally, the Bengals are 0-6 OU (-14.9 ppg) as a 7+ dog the week after a win in which they were outgained and 0-6 OU (-8.2 ppg) as a 7+ dog when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. Take these two UNDER. BALTIMORE 24 Cincinnati 6
Sports Book Breakers Newsletter Side Play 4-Star Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO—This is a match-up of two very similar teams. Both have had shaky play on both sides of the ball. However, Cleveland appeared to be heading in the right direction after a 23-20 loss to Cincinnati in OT last week. The Bills on the other hand have been a disaster the past two games, including a 31-3 loss against the Chad Henne led Miami last week. In that loss to the Dolphins last week, their delta points allowed was 19.0. The Bills have not recovered well after these kind of games against rival Miami, as they are 0-18 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since November 24, 1991 as no more than a 10-point favorite, after facing the Dolphins and having a positive dpa The Browns had a delta points scored of 4.0 against the Bengals last week while gaining 22 first downs. The Browns are 8-0 ATS (4.5 ppg) since 2007 when they got 20+ first downs last game and had a positive dpa (0<=p:FD and team=Browns and season>=2007). Cleveland came up big on third downs defensively against Cincinnati for the first time this year, holding them to 6-for-19 on conversions. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) the week after they lost as a dog while holding the opponent on at least 10 third down attempts. Cleveland has been good at both rebounding from close losses and taking advantage of opponents while they are down. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (4.1 ppg) since December 18, 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak (team=Browns and A and op:L and opp:L and opp:season=season and 20051218<=date). Also, Cleveland is 6-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since November 06, 2005 when they lost 1-3 points last week (team=Browns and -3<=p:margin<0 and p:week+1=week and 20051106<=date). This could be considered a trap game for the Browns between games against divisional rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, however with teams as bad as these two, any winnable game is a big one. This has held true for Cleveland recently as they are 6-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since September 22, 2002 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents (team=Browns and D and pIV and NDIV and nIV and po:week+2=no:week and 20020922<=date). Cleveland actually got their last win in Buffalo on week 11 of last year, so they know they can win here. With Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago and Baltimore as their next four games, the Browns are going to be putting everything they have into winning this one, as it might be awhile before their next chance to win. With home field advantage not overly important in this one, the line should be around even. Take advantage of these extra points. Cleveland 21, BUFFALO 20 Top Total 4-STAR New England and DENVER Over 41—Both of these teams have yet to be explosive offensively this year because they’ve been doing what it takes to win. In this one, it’s going to take putting points on the board to win. Last week, the Broncos were not very disciplined against the Cowboys, committing 10 penalties. The Broncos are 12-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since September 21, 1997 the week after at home in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The is also a good league situation as the League is 9-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since September 23, 2007 at home the week after a straight up win at home in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average average last week in wins. The Broncos are 8-0-2 OU (8.0 ppg) in database history at home the week after a straight up win in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0-1 OU (10.3 ppg) since December 20, 2004 the game after they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average Look for both these teams to feature strong balanced attacks DENVER 27, New England 24
Winning Points NFL ****BEST BET New England over *Denver by 21 Denver’s record says 4-0.The Broncos have yielded an average of 6.5 points per game.Are the Broncos really this good? Our answer is a resounding NO. The Broncos stole their opener from Cincinnati. They followed that up with victories against Cleveland and Oakland – combined record of 1-7 – and then beat a flat Dallas squad traveling on a short week at home. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos lose their next four games starting with this one.Denver won’t be able to hide a patchwork secondary and a front seven composed of mainly castoffs against Tom Brady, who is getting more in sync having played four games since his knee injury and with Wes Welker back healthy. Denver is 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. The Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS following a victory. It’s pupil against master. Broncos’ first year head coach Josh McDaniels was Bill Belichick’s quarterback coach last year. Belichick will have his team up for this matchup. Denver is the only team Belichick has a losing record against.The Patriots destroyed the Broncos last year, 41-7. New England has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is just a glorified game manager. He’s at his best when he’s staying out of his own way by not throwing downfield. The Broncos could be without their most effective back this season, Correll Buckhalter. He suffered an ankle injury last Sunday.The Patriots have covered eight of the past nine times they’ve been a road favorite of four or more points. The Patriots could even get back their best defensive player, linebacker Jerod Mayo (check status). NEW ENGLAND 31-10. ***BEST BET *Carolina over Washington by 18 When we last saw the Redskins away from FedEx Field, they were helping Detroit end its 19-game loss streak.That shouldn’t be so shocking considering it was the fifth straight time Washington has lost on the road. The Redskins have been held to 20 points or less in 11 of their past 12 games. The Jim Zorn watch is in full blossom. A narrow home victory (and noncover) against a bad Tampa Bay squad at home last week changes nothing. Washington has lost eight of its last 12 games. The Redskins are deficient both in the run game, missing their best run-blocking guard Randy Thomas, and in their passing attack with inadequate pass protection and Santana Moss as the lone big-play threat. Quarterback Jason Campbell isn’t good enough to produce points unless he has multiple weapons, which he doesn’t. Clinton Portis is banged-up and clearly not as good as he once was.The Panthers come off their bye a desperate team at 0-3, their worst start in 11 years. Jake Delhomme has committed 15 turnovers in his last 16 games and injuries have left the Panthers vulnerable to power ground attacks. They entered their bye ranked 29th in run defense.During their time off, though, the Panthers did something about this signing 340-pound, 14-year veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. Delhomme is on a short leash despite recently signing a big contract extension. He should be fine in this matchup with extra time to prepare and at home.The Panthers have a strong 1-2 running punch of DeAngelo Williams and a now-healthy Jonathan Stewart. Steve Smith remains a premier deep threat. John Fox gives Carolina a coaching edge. CAROLINA 30-12. Preferred 2* Cincinnati over *Baltimore by 2 If it weren’t for a fluke, tipped-pass that went for a late touchdown, the Bengals would be unbeaten. Unlike Denver, though, the Bengals’ record isn’t a fluke. Cincinnati has a very talented defense with just about every position manned by a high draft choice. The Ravens are strong, too. This key division showdown should be a close battle. The line is inflated.The Ravens’ first two home games were against Kansas City and Cleveland, two teams that have yet to win a game in eight tries. Baltimore’s weakness is its cornerbacks are not nearly as good as in previous seasons. Carson Palmer can attack them. He has a big weapon with Chad Ochocinco.The Ravens haven’t allowed a running back to gain 100 yards against them in an NFLhigh 39 straight games. Cedric Benson probably won’t end that streak, but he’s emerged as a credible back that the Ravens can’t ignore in order to blitz all out against Palmer.The Bengals have showed their heart, desire and improvement upsetting Green Bay as a similarly-priced road ‘dog and then coming from behind to edge Pittsburgh. Cincinnati did struggle with the Browns last week, but it was an obvious flat spot in between Pittsburgh and this huge matchup. CINCINNATI 23-21. Dallas over *Kansas City by 17 This isn’t so much a play on Dallas as it is a strong fade on the Chiefs, losers of 14 of their last 15 at Arrowhead Stadium. This includes dropping their last eight home contests. The Cowboys have too much team speed and athleticism for a slow Kansas City offense that has lost faith already. Todd Haley is another of these first-year head coaches in over his head. He’s already impaired the confidence level of quarterback Matt Cassel. Dwayne Bowe, the team’s only legitimate receiving threat, is slowed by a hamstring injury and has lost his edge, too, because of Haley’s head games. The Chiefs have nowhere to turn because Larry Johnson isn’t doing the job on the ground, averaging less than three yards per carry. He’s only scored two touchdowns in his last 12 games. It’s not like the Chiefs have a dominant defense that can pick up the slack. Tony Romo should find Kansas City’s porous secondary to his liking. Look for Romo to play better being away from the pressure of being in the spotlight in Dallas’ new billion dollar stadium. Dallas won’t have Felix Jones. However, Marion Barber and underrated Tashard Choice are good running backs and Jason Witten is one of the best tight ends in the NFL. DALLAS 30-13. Close Calls Minnesota over *St. Louis by 6 The Vikings are lucky to draw the Rams after hosting Green Bay in one of the biggest Monday night games of all time.The Rams last tasted victory in Week 6 of last season. Steve Spagnuolo is in the early stages of a massive rebuilding job. The Rams have failed to cover 10 of the past 13 times they’ve been a home ‘dog and are 5-14 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Marc Bulger (check status) no longer is an effective quarterback, but he’s still better than journeyman Kyle Boller. The Rams have scored just three touchdowns all season. MINNESOTA 23-17. *Philadelphia over Tampa Bay by 13 The Eagles are very tough following a bye covering eight of the past nine times.Tampa Bay’s defense is way down from previous years. Philadelphia expects to have its two major weapons back, Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. The Buccaneers have surrendered 200-plus rushing yards in two of their last three games.Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offense to trade points with the rested Eagles. Josh Johnson will be making just his second NFL start.The Eagles are one of the toughest foes for a young quarterback to face with their multiple blitz schemes. PHILADELPHIA 27-14. *New York Giants over Oakland by 14 Returning home after winning three straight road games and with Eli Manning suffering a bruised heel, the Giants might be ripe for a flat performance. Don’t hold your breath. The Raiders lack the passing game to take advantage of New York’s injuries in its secondary. The Raiders have only 45 completions, lowest in the NFL. JaMarcus Russell is the only starting quarterback completing less than 40 percent. Traveling to the East Coast for an early start time is tough on Oakland, too.The Giants are 12-5 ATS versus teams with a losing record. NY GIANTS 21-7. *Buffalo over Cleveland by 7 In this week’s Who Cares Game we find the Bills hosting the Browns, who are as bad if not worse than their expansion team of 1999. Cleveland hasn’t scored a touchdown on offense in eight of its last 10 games.The Browns have turned to unpredictable Derek Anderson. It almost worked last week catching a flat Bengals squad.The Bills can’t afford to take any team lightly. They have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. They do own weapons with Terrell Owens, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch.There’s just not a competent starting quarterback. BUFFALO 23-16. Pittsburgh over *Detroit by 10 The Lions are improved under new coach Jim Schwartz, but not to the point where they can hang close at home against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Steelers may not have Willie Parker (check status), but they hold huge edges in the trenches in this matchup.The Lions have allowed 24 or more points in 22 of their last 26 games. Detroit has failed to cover nine of its last 11 home games.The Steelers are hoping to get back star safety Troy Polamalu, while the Lions likely could be without promising rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford. PITTSBURGH 27-17. Atlanta over *San Francisco by 2 San Francisco does two things for Mike Singletary – play hard and cover spreads.The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games.The 49ers are idle next week so they’ll probably hold out Frank Gore for another game. There’s a big drop from Gore to Glen Coffee. The Falcons’ star running back, Michael Turner, is off to a mediocre start averaging 75.3 yards rushing. The Falcons should be well prepared for San Francisco, though.They were idle last week and already have faced two 3-4 defenses in Miami and New England.ATLANTA 16-14. *Arizona over Houston by 3 The glass slipper isn’t fitting so well these days for the Cardinals. Their offensive line is back to being suspect. They’ve also lost twice at home already.The Texans have plenty of weapons, but have yet to prove they can step up on the road. Matt Schaub has 981 yards passing and eight touchdowns in his last three games.The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 15 home contests under Ken Whisenhunt,going 9-6 ATS.The Cardinals have 18 starters back from their Super Bowl club.They are healthy and rested having had a bye last week.ARIZONA 26-23. *Seattle over Jacksonville by 5 The Jaguars have some momentum off two straight division victories. However, they still have lost 14 of their past 21 games and are traveling three time zones into possible wet weather while dealing with the loudest outdoor stadiums in the league. Seattle is 10-5-1 ATS in its past 16 games at Qwest Field.The Seahawks are getting healthier on defense with linebacker Lofa Tatupu back.The key question is how healthy Seattle will be offense? Matt Hasselbeck (check status) has missed the last two games and offensive linemen Walter Jones and Sean Locklear have been out. SEATTLE 24-19. Indianapolis over *Tennessee by 7 Look for the Colts to extend their regular-season win streak to 14 games, while the Titans remain winless. No doubt the frustrated Titans will be firedup hosting their division arch-rival.The Titans are the most disappointing team so far, but they haven’t been as bad as their record.They’ve committed 11 turnovers after having 13 last season. Their secondary can’t keep Peyton Manning in check, especially if Cortland Finnegan remains out with a hamstring injury. Manning has tossed nine touchdowns and is on pace to throw for a career-high 5,344 yards. INDIANAPOLIS 32-25. New York Jets over *Miami by 3 (Monday) New York’s defense has yielded only three touchdowns. The Jets will be coming hard after second-year pro Chad Henne, who will be making only his second NFL start.The Dolphins want Henne just to manage the game even though he has a bigger arm than Chad Pennington. Miami has outrushed its four opponents, 734-244, behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Expect the Jets to play eight in the box trying to force mistakes from Henne. NY JETS 20-17. OVER/UNDER **OVER: Indianapolis at Tennessee – The Colts have several defensive starters hurt, but are averaging 30.6 points in their last three games and face a porous Tennessee secondary. UNDER: Oakland at New York Giants - The Raiders are averaging less than 100 passing in their last three games, while Eli Manning may not be 100 percent. UNDER: Atlanta at San Francisco – Take away a miracle touchdown pass from Brett Favre, and the 49ers would be giving up just 11.5 points per game.
Logical Approach NFL NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 3 ½ over Washington - Washington struggled more than they should have in rallying to defeat Tampa Bay last week and now take to the road to face a rested 0-3 Carolina. Their two wins have come against winless Tampa and St Louis and now they face another winless team. Carolina is rested following their Bye and should be better prepared after having the extra time to address their concerns and deficiencies. Both teams have QB issues with Washington's Campbell struggling every bit as much as Carolina's Delhomme. The Panther do have the better coach, a better balanced running game and the potentially stronger passing game. They have also faced an overall tougher schedule. The Redskins have put up the better defensive stats but the talent on both teams is even. Carolina's Bye has also allowed for injuries to heal which makes them the healthier team. Washington RB Portis has been banged up in the early going and his productivity has been slowed as a result. Carolina gets their first win, 23-10. Other Featured NFL Selections : BALTIMORE - 8 ½ over Cincinnati - Cincinnati is clearly an improved team, especially on defense, although they have allowed more rushing yards in each successive game this season. Baltimore is steamed after losing in New England last week despite playing very well on both sides of the football. QB Flacco continues to impress in leading the offense while the defense continues to be superb. And although the Ravens have also allowed more rushing yards each game its been on a totally different level than the Bengals. Baltimore allowed 29 rushing yards to Kansas City in their opener and just 85 last week to the Pats. They lead the NFL in allowing just 60 ypg on the ground, just 2.6 per rush. Baltimore's well balanced offense ranks # 5 rushing and # 6 passing. Off a loss, with the Divisional lead at stake and playing at home in the first of their two games this season suggests the intangibles support the more experienced host. Baltimore wins 27-14. New England - 3 ½ over DENVER - It may be time to start believing in the 4-0 Broncos after they finally defeated a Playoff quality team with last week's win over Dallas. They again step up in class to face a New England team that is not as dominant as they were two seasons ago but are still an elite team. The intrigue surrounding this game involves Denver head coach McDaniels who served 7 seasons on New England's staff including the last 3 as offensive coordinator. Denver QB Orten has fared well leading his new team. Patriots' QB Brady is getting closer to peak form with each game after missing virtually all of 2008 due to injury. Denver's defense has been outstanding but that plays into the strength of Patriot coach Belichick and his ability to prepare. This game could have home field implications for the Playoffs. And history suggests the teacher generally has the edge over the pupil in first time matchups. Expect a well played game with minimal mistakes and with the more talented and experienced team getting a solid win. New England wins 27-17. TENNESSEE + 3 ½ over Indianapolis - After starting last season 10-0, Tennessee has dropped 8 of their last 11 games including all 4 this season. The first three were all competitive losses before last week's one sided home loss to Jacksonville. Their season is all but shot as only San Diego, in 1992, made the Playoffs after starting 0-4. Indianapolis is 4-0 with outstanding play on both sides of the football. These teams have split their season series each of the past three seasons and most have been extremely tightly contested. The on field results suggest the Colts here but long standing handicapping principles clearly point to the Titans who have burned their backers badly each of the past two weeks. And if the Colts are such an obvious play, why is this line so short? Despite the 0-4 record the Titans have some impressive stats to rely upon, including gaining 5.5 yards per rush (# 2) while defensively allowing just 2.8 per rush (# 2). Following last week's shockingly embarrassing loss, expect their best effort yet. Tennessee pulls the upset, winning 24-21.
GOLD SHEET NFL KEY RELEASES PHILADELPHIA by 27 over Tampa Bay BALTIMORE by 18 over Cincinnati UNDER THE TOTAL in the New England-Denver SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11 Minnesota 27 - ST. LOUIS 10--Since Detroit recently experienced the heady nectar of victory, banged-up St. Louis now carrying the banner for hopeful losers everywhere after its skid reached 14 straight last week at San Francisco. And since Rams didn't require new HC Steve Spagnuolo to bring a few reinforcements with him from the Giants (Eli Manning would have been nice), should the 1976-77 Bucs start to worry? Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson & Co. have already taken care of the sad-sack Browns & Lions on the road. St. Louis even less threatening with leading receiver Laurent Robinson (ankle) done for the season. (06-St. Louis -2 41-21...SR: Minnesota 22-16-2) Dallas 27 - KANSAS CITY 13--Maybe they should play this one at the Cotton Bowl, where these franchises both began their existence 49 years ago. And the "good ol' days" are about all that's worth celebrating in K.C. (0-4 SU and vs. line), as Arrowhead faithful are getting impatient to see some return other than garbage-time TDs from high-priced QB acquisition Matt Cassel. But until Larry Johnson (only 2.6 ypc) gets some room to run, Chiefs' offense not likely to scare even Kansas State's defense. Would like Dallas recommendation more if Cowboys have breakaway dimension of RB Felix Jones (knee) available. (05-DALLAS -3 31-28...SR: Dallas 5-3) CAROLINA 23 - Washington 13--It's a plus for Washington to escape the D.C. boo-birds after narrowly avoiding humiliation last week vs. Tampa Bay (not to mention three straight non-covers vs. lowly Rams, Lions, and Bucs). But the grand plan of Jim Zorn and Vinny Cerrato to spend offseason free-agent money and top draft picks on defense instead of offense is likely going to cause each to face Dan Snyder's firing squad before long. Carolina already losing touch with Saints in NFC South, but the blitz package John Fox dusted off in recent loss at Dallas ought to come in handy vs. Jason Campbell (3 picks vs. Bucs). (06-WASHINGTON +4 17-13...SR: Washington 7-1) PHILADELPHIA 33 - Tampa Bay 6--Near-miss vs. sluggish Redskins hardly a "buy" signal for nearly-inept T.B, which has already changed its offensive coordinator and starting QB while its two-season losing streak has been extended to 8 games. Even if Donovan McNabb out another week, Kevin Kolb (716 YP last 2 starts!) has proven a quick study, Michael Vick's role likely to expand, and popular LB & leader Jeremiah Trotter has been re-signed. Bucs' green QB Josh Johnson & Co. unlikely to stay in touch. Note Birds' 7-2 mark last 9 as Linc chalk. (06-TAMPA BAY +5' 23-21...SR: EVEN 7-7) NY GIANTS 27 - Oakland 6--No, the Raiders aren't in such a 50th anniversary mode that they're going to pull Tom Flores out of the radio broadcast booth to QB the team, as he did in the franchise's early days. Although we're not sure Flores (at 72!) would be much worse than JaMarcus Russell, who's passed for just 298 yards the past three games, with the offense reduced to Sebastian Janikowski FGs and not much else. Potential absence of Eli Manning (heel) could be a concern for NYG vs. some foes, but G-Men should extend margin even if backup David Carr taking the snaps. Giants 30-9 vs. line last 39! (05-NY Giants -8 30-21...SR: Oakland 7-3) Cleveland 23 - BUFFALO 20--This game sure isn't the NFL equivalent of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue. But it is the site of Cleveland's last triumph (Nov. 17, 2008), when Brady Quinn directed a last-second win. Now, Browns feature a new HC (Eric Mangini), new QB (Derek Anderson), and brown pants worn with white jerseys, but there's some symmetry in the idea that Cleveland will use Orchard Park to end its 10-game skid. After all, Cleveland has had a tough slate to start '09, and Anderson at least got the Browns in the end zone twice last week. Noose is tightening around Dick Jauron's neck in Buffalo (outscored 65-17 last 2). (08-Cleve. 29-BUF. 27...B.19-18 B.38/186 C.27/161 C.14/36/0/176 B.16/26/3/148 C.0 B.1) (08-Cleveland +5' 29-27...SR: Cleveland 10-5) BALTIMORE 31 - Cincinnati 13--The John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco combination is 8-2 vs. the spread at home. And the Ravens were second in both offense & second scoring through the first three weeks, with Flacco showing quite a bit of the same development as did the young Drew Brees & Philip Rivers when current Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was in San Diego. Cincy obviously improved, but it's doubtful RB Cedric Benson (367 YR) will have a big day vs. the Baltimore front seven, which figures to give plenty of trouble to the rebuilt Bengal OL. Twelve of Harbaugh's 16 wins have been by double-digits. (08-BALT. 17-Cincy 10...B.21-8 B.46/229 C.23/65 B.15/29/0/129 C.10/25/1/89 B.2 C.1) (08-Balt. 34-CINCY 3...B.20-6 B.41/150 C.16/57 B.20/30/0/304 C.12/33/1/98 B.0 C.0) (08-BALTIMORE +2 17-10, Baltimore -7 34-3...SR: Baltimore 15-11) Pittsburgh 30 - DETROIT 13--Lions hustling under new coach Jim Schwartz. But their lack of depth and talent showing up in the second half, when Detroit has been outscored 78-29 (27-3 in Chicago). Plus, Steelers have fond memories of Detroit, where they won the Super Bowl four seasons ago. More importantly, Ben Roethlisberger has been on the beam with his fine cast of receivers, even when hassled out of the pocket. Don't trust Daunte Culpepper to get the ball downfield as strong-armed rookie QB Stafford (check status of knee injury) was doing. (05-PITTSBURGH -14 35-21...SR: EVEN 14-14-1) SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Atlanta 13--S.F. a changed team since Mike Singletary took over--9-2-1 vs. the number its last 12; 4-0-1 vs. its last 5 at home. Similarly, however, the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan Atlanta HC-QB combo demonstrated plenty of resiliency LY, going 5-0 SU after a loss. So, the Gore-less 49ers face a considerable challenge. But the reliable Shaun Hill has been an uncanny QB starter under Singletary, going 5-3 SU in 2008's year of struggle, and being a desperation Brett Favre heave from 4-0 TY. (07-ATLANTA -3' 20-16...SR: San Francisco 44-28-1) UNDER THE TOTAL DENVER 17 - New England 16--Is one of Bill Belichick's youngest pupils ready to take on the "Hoodie?" Josh McDaniels (33) was the QBs coach the last five years in N.E., and the offensive coordinator the last three. Granted, Kyle Orton is no Tom Brady, who is 23-1 SU his last 24 regular-season starts. But McDaniels (a perfect 4-0) and Orton (no ints. TY) have done all that's been asked of them so far, and the quick, new 3-4 defense has allowed only 26 points and collected 15 sacks (8 by the Freeney-like Elvis Dumvervil). Broncs "under" all four in 2009. (08-N. ENG. 41-Denver 7...N.25-19 N.38/257 D.26/106 D.19/29/2/169 N.18/24/0/147 N.0 D.3) (08-NEW ENGLAND -3 41-7...SR: Denver 26-16) ARIZONA 31 - Houston 30--Slow-starting Arizona (1-2 overall; 0-2 SU at home) is exhibiting lots of signs of recent Super Bowl losers in their ensuing year. Meanwhile, Houston showing all the signs of a team with an explosive offensive (29 ppg last 3 games) and leaky defense (29 ppg in non-Oakland games). Still, will side with potent underdog in this anticipated indoor shootout (Cards 22-9 "over" last 31; Texans 16-9 "over" last 25). Kurt Warner & Co. have scored 30 points or more in 5 of their last 7 home games overall. (05-HOUSTON +2' 30-19...SR: Houston 1-0) SEATTLE 27 - Jacksonville 24--Seattle won its opener, but has not covered since, with QB Matt Hasselbeck suffering rib fracture in Game Two. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has shaken off 0-2 start, scoring back-to-back wins behind capable group of "triplets"--QB Garrard 45 of 67, 3 TDs, 0 ints. in those two; RB Maurice Jones-Drew 4 TDR; and third-year WR Michael Sims-Walker 13 receptions. But keep in mind Seattle 3-2 as rare home dog L6Ys. And that Jacksonville lost its only other visit to the Emerald City in 2001. Hard-fighting host, though injured, far from incompetent. (05-J'VILLE -3 26-14...SR: Seattle 3-2) *TENNESSEE 23 - Indianapolis 20--Tennessee won its first 10 games LY and has lost its first four TY. The explanation? Simple: It's the NFL! There are other explanations, such as the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth & defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, plus Kerry Collins going the Jake Delhomme rout since the Titans' playoff loss. However, Tennessee still has its formidable ground assault, home dog pedigree (7-0 last 7), and great familiarity with Indy (Titans 5-1 vs. spread last 6 meetings). REGIONAL TV--NBC (08-TENN. 31-Indy 21...T.23-19 I.22/94 T.31/88 I.26/41/2/223 T.24/37/0/193 T.0 I.0) (08-INDY 23-Tenn. 0...I.21-8 I.27/121 T.18/83 I.29/37/0/269 T.11/17/0/42 I.0 T.0) (08-TENNESSEE -4 31-21, INDIANAPOLIS +3 23-0...SR: Indianapolis 16-13)
Pointwise NFL Key Releases SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta RATING: 2 MIAMI over New York Jets RATING: 3 BALTIMORE over Cincinnati RATING: 4 MINNESOTA over St Louis RATING: 4 WASHINGTON over Carolina RATING: 5
Nelly's Greensheet NFL KEY SELECTIONS ************************************************** ******************** RATING 5 ARIZONA (-6) over Houston RATING 4 CINCINNATI (+9) over Baltimore RATING 3 BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland RATING 2 CAROLINA (-4) over Washington RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (NL) over Seattle ************************************************** **
Marc Lawrence Playbook PRO FOOTBALL Sunday, October 11 Minnesota over ST. LOUIS by 3 Dallas over KANSAS CITY by 3 4* BEST BET CAROLINA over Washington by 14 CAROLINA over Washington by 14 PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay by 10 NY GIANTS over Oakland by 13 BALTIMORE over Cincinnati by 4 . The 8 points ARE enough. Pittsburgh over DETROIT by 6 Atlanta over SAN FRANCISCO by 3 DENVER over New England by 1 . ARIZONA over Houston by 10 SEATTLE over Jacksonville by 7 5* BEST BET TENNESSEE over Indianapolis by 10 3* BEST BET Cleveland over BUFFALO by 6
Brandon Lang from a radio show He liked the Broncos, 49ers (a lot), Vikings (a little), and Colts (medium).
Red Sheet Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 13 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is now minus 3½. Yes, we are quite aware of the fact that we've yet to be on the right side of a game involving these Titans, who, thus far, have been a monumental flop. Their formerly frightening defense is slipping by the week, as they've been mauled for 34, 24, & 37 pts the last 3 weeks. The defection of Haynesworth has obviously taken its toll, & facing this smoking Colt (13 straight regular season wins) certainly not the prescription for turning things around. Manning: 69-of-99 for 1,035 yds (15 yds per completion) past 3 weeks. RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88 NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87)San Fran, Philadelphia, Miami
Jimmy The Gent Last Week (5-3 +2.80 Units) Ytd : 17-15 - 4.40 Units Well I Keep Chipping Away, Making A Small Profit Each Time, Here Are Sundays Rated Plays: I Have Never Posted Playing First Halves, But I Have A Formula Thats Been Hitting 77% And It Comes In The Minnesota Game. Minn / Stl Over 20 First Half 5*top Play Tenn / Indy Under 45 5*top Play Buffalo -6 4*play Cincinnati + 9 4*top Play Jacksonville / Seattle Over 44 3*