MLB DUNKEL Detroit at Minnesota The Twins look to build on their 11-2 record in their last 13 games as a favorite. Minnesota is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155). Here are all of today's picks. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6 Game 931-932: Detroit at Minnesota Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.485; Minnesota (Baker) 16.883 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under
MLB LONG SHEET Tuesday, October 6 DETROIT (86 - 76) at MINNESOTA (86 - 76) - 5:07 PM RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. SCOTT BAKER (R) Top Trends for this game. DETROIT is 160-164 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 35-46 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season. DETROIT is 66-78 (-29.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 20-34 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 105-122 (-37.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 174-151 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 101-61 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 19-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday this season. MINNESOTA is 26-10 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 45-27 (+14.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. MINNESOTA is 104-65 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 106-70 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 58-44 (+8.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. MINNESOTA is 47-25 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 38-30 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Head-to-Head Series History MINNESOTA is 11-7 (+3.5 Units) against DETROIT this season 8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.5 Units) RICK PORCELLO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997 PORCELLO is 1-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.414. His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-0. (+4.0 units) SCOTT BAKER vs. DETROIT since 1997 BAKER is 5-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.202. His team's record is 8-8 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-6. (+3.7 units)
MLB SHORT SHEET Tuesday, October 6th One Game Playoff for AL Central Title DETROIT at MINNESOTA, 5:07 PM ET TBS PORCELLO: DET 30-59 as road underdog BAKER: MIN 23-7 after scoring 8+ runs
MLB ADDITIONAL Tuesday, October 6 Trend Report 5:07 PM DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
NCAAF LONG SHEET Week 6 Tuesday, October 6 MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 1) at TROY (2 - 2) - 10/6/2009, 8:00 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game. Head-to-Head Series History TROY is 2-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons TROY is 2-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons 2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons NCAAF SHORT SHEET Week 6 Tuesday, 10/6/2009 MIDDLE TENN ST at TROY, 8:00 PM ET ESPN2 MIDDLE TENN ST: 11-1 Over off DD conference win TROY: 7-0 ATS if they had 3+ turnovers last game Trend Report Tuesday, October 6 8:00 PM MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. TROY Middle Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road Middle Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games at home
uicemansports Twin RUN LINE -1.5 +130 $400 to win $520 (4Units) Twins -160 $480 to win $300 (4Units) NHL: Ottawa Senators +110 $200 to win $220 (2Units) Minnesota Wild -125 $375 to win $300 ( 3units this looks super solid!!)
DCI Season: 7-8 (.467) Ottawa vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL Washington vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL CAROLINA 4, Tampa Bay 2 MINNESOTA 3, Anaheim 2 CALGARY 4, Montreal 3 Dallas vs. EDMONTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL San Jose vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL DCI Tuesday, October 6, 2009 Sun Belt Conference TROY 27, Middle Tennessee 25
NHL DUNKEL Montreal at Calgary The Flames look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is coming off a 2-1 win at Buffalo and is just 3-13 in its last 16 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Calgary is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160). Here are all of today's picks. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6 Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Carolina Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.743; Carolina 10.490 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-165); 6 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under Game 3-4: Ottawa at Toronto Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.616; Toronto 10.944 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-115); 6 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Over Game 5-6: Washington at Philadelphia Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.534; Philadelphia 13.366 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 6 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over Game 7-8: Montreal at Calgary Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.627; Calgary 12.281 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160); Under Game 9-10: Anaheim at Minnesota Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.107; Minnesota 11.921 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under Game 11-12: Dallas at Edmonton Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.539; Edmonton 10.654 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over Game 13-14: San Jose at Los Angeles Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.775; Los Angeles 11.685 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+145); Under
Mighty Quinn Mighty missed with the Packers ( 4) Monday night. Today it's the Twins. The surplus is 965 sirignanos.
Hondo Hondo fell a little deeper into the abyss last night when the comeback by the Packers -- Larry Craig's favorite team -- stalled in Minnesota to raise the deficit to 1,340 killebrews. Today, he's expecting the Twins to roll with Baker and collect a playoff payoff -- 10 units.
Scott Ferrall NHL FREE PICKS FOR TUESDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( ) Tampa Bay CAROLINA -155 (1) SAN JOSE -155 (2) Los Angeles 10/6/2009
THE SPORTS ADVISORS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6 AMERICAN LEAGUE Detroit (86-76) at Minnesota (86-76) The final piece of baseball’s postseason puzzle will fall into place today at the Metrodome as the Twins host the Tigers in a one-game playoff with the winner claiming the A.L. Central title. Minnesota will hand the ball to Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA), while Detroit counters with rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04). The Tigers had a seven-game lead on Minnesota back on Sept. 6 when it scored four runs in the top of the ninth to rally past the Rays 5-3 in Tampa. After that victory – which capped a six-game winning streak – Detroit went on to lose 15 of its last 26 games, going 5-7 on the road. However, facing a must-win situation Sunday against the White Sox, the Tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held on 5-3 to force this one-game playoff. The Twins caught Detroit by closing the regular season on a four-game winning streak, starting with Thursday’s 8-3 victory in Motown, followed by a three-game home sweep of the Royals. In addition to the current winning streak Minnesota won 16 of its final 20 games, including eight of its last nine at the Metrodome. During the 16-4 season-ending surge, the Twins went 4-3 against Detroit. These squads split a four-game, three-day series in Detroit last week, and they’ve split the last 10 meetings, all since the beginning of August. The Twins ended up taking the season series 11-7, going 7-2 at home. Furthermore, going back more than 10 years, Minnesota is 61-28 against the Tigers at the Metrodome. Detroit enters this contest in slumps of 1-5 against right-handed starters and 27-58 as a road underdog, but it is 5-1 in its last six playoff games as a pup. Minnesota, in addition to its 16-4 overall run, is on hot streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 71-32 as a home chalk, 20-6 against right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory, 21-7 against the A.L. Central, 20-7 on Tuesday and 28-11 after an off day. On the downside, the Twins have dropped 13 of their last 16 playoff games, including seven straight postseason contests in the Metrodome. Porcello faced the Twins on Tuesday and held them to one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings getting a no-decision in Detroit’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss. In four starts against the Twins this year, the 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. He went 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in the Metrodome this season, pitching just 10 innings. Porcello is 4-1 with two no-decisions since Aug. 28, but the Tigers have alternated wins and losses in his last six outings. He’s 6-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 15 road starts, with the Tigers going 7-8, including 1-4 in the last five on the highway. With the Twins staring at elimination, Baker faced the Tigers on Thursday and allowed one run (unearned) on five hits over five innings of an 8-3 road win. Baker also faced the Tigers at home on Sept. 20 and yielded four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. For his career, the right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 career starts versus Detroit covering 95 2/3 innings, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts (20 innings) this season. Baker is 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 home efforts this year. With Baker on the mound, Minnesota is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home (all as a favorite), 10-2 against A.L. Central foes, 20-7 as a favorite and 5-1 on Tuesday. With Porcello pitching, the under is on runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 9-3 against A.L. Central rivals and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, and all four of his starts versus Minnesota this year stayed low. However, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five road starts and 3-1-1 in his last five on Tuesday. Behind Baker, the Twins are on “under” streaks of 5-2-2 overall and 3-0-1 at home (all as a favorite), but the over is 17-6-1 in his last 24 starts against divisional foes, including 6-1 in his last seven versus Detroit. As a team, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 3-1-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2-1 after a victory, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 11-4-2 on Tuesday. The Twins carry “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall (all against A.L. Central foes), 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-2 on Tuesday. However, the under is 4-0-1 in the past five Tigers-Twins clashes in Minnesota. ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA COLLEGE FOOTBALL Middle Tennessee St. (3-1 SU and ATS) at Troy (2-2 SU and ATS) Middle Tennessee State shoots for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory when it travels to Troy, Ala., for a Sun Belt Conference clash with the Trojans at Movie Gallery Stadium. The Blue Raiders got drubbed 37-14 at Clemson as an 18½-point road ‘dog to open their campaign, but they’ve since ridden a hot offense to three straight wins and covers over Memphis (31-14 at home), Maryland (32-31 on the road) and North Texas (37-21 on the road). Troy began the season with a two ugly non-conference road losses, falling 31-14 at Bowling Green as a seven-point chalk and 56-6 to top-ranked Florida as a 36½-point ‘dog. However, the Trojans rebounded with a pair of Sun Belt victories over UAB (27-14 as a six-point home chalk) and Arkansas State (30-27 as a 2½-point road underdog). Troy is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll against the Blue Raiders, including a 31-17 rout as a six-point road chalk in last year’s season opener for both teams and a 45-7 thrashing as a 13-point home choice in 2007. The favorite has cashed in six of seven meetings this decade, with the visitor going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four. The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Middle Tennessee’s last seven overall, 7-0 ATS in Troy’s last seven overall and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this rivalry. The Blue Raiders are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 12-3 when playing in October, 4-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 following a spread-cover, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 2-8-1 in Sun Belt games, 0-4 after a bye week and 2-5 as a road pup. The Trojans are on ATS surges of 7-3 at home, 4-1 in conference, 4-1 in October, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 13-5 after a SU victory and 4-0 after a bye. Middle Tennessee carries nothing but “over” trends, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 6-0 as a road pup, 4-0 in October and 4-1 in Sun Belt action. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in Troy’s last four at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 in its last six as a chalk, 6-1-1 in its last eight in October and 8-0-1 in its last nine after a bye. Finally, the last four series clashes between these schools have stayed low. ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY and UNDER
randall the handle TORONTO -½ +1.31 over Ottawa (REG) Pinnacle I gave up three goals in the first — he had to try something," Vesa Toskala said of being pulled in the eventual 6-4 defeat to Washington. "I feel good (overall), but I have to help the team more." Of course he feels good. If I were making $3M a year I’d feel good too. Ron Wilson will not reveal who is in net tonight but my money says it won’t be Toskala and his .800 save percentage in two games. He’s a huge downer and the Maple Leafs need a lift. Toronto was supposed to be bigger, faster and a whole lot better this year and you know what, they are. This is a very decent team that is going to be tough to beat because of three rock-solid lines and a defense that is young but can move the puck and create chances. The Leafs are a lot more physical and they’re a lot more determined too. The Sens actually played a decent game on Saturday despite losing 5-2 to the Rangers. However, this team is going to have a lot of lousy nights this season. In fact, they just might be the most flawed team in the business. All aspects of the game, (goaltending, defense, depth, toughness and scoring) are all in question and as the Canucks showed us last night it’s going to be very difficult to win in this league when only one line is contributing. Leafs absolutely dominated the Canadiens on Thursday and they’re the much better team again tonight. Play: Toronto -½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units). CALGARY -½ -1.06 over Montreal (REG) Pinnacle The Habs are 2-0 not because of its strong play but because of the goaltending of Carey Price. In fact, in two games in Toronto and Buffalo the Habs were outshot 81-44. They’ve been badly outplayed in every single period and things aren’t going to get any better anytime soon. They’re not better than they were last season and in fact, all they really did was replace three guys that can rack up points (Tanguay, Kovalev and Soiku) with three other guys that can rack up points (Cammalleri, Gomez and Gionta). Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek on defense look about as mobile as two orange cones out there. So, while Spacek and Gill look like Abbot and Costello, the Flames will come out with Phanuef and Boumeester. It’s almost not fair. Calgary is loaded with a slew of talented and rugged D-men and if the Habs had trouble creating chances against Buffalo and Toronto, they might not get out of its own end tonight. Calgary is loaded offensively as well. Despite being a misleading 2-0, Montreal is outmatched here by a huge margin and no way do they fluke out three wins in a row. Get on this one early because you might be laying -½ -1.20 by game time. Play: Calgary -½ -1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2). Tampa Bay +1.35 over CAROLINA Pinnacle The Canes made a huge run at the end of last season to grab a playoff spot and subsequently won two playoff rounds over New Jersey and Boston before getting clobbered by the Penguins in the third round. That was about as unlikely a run as any team has ever made and if you think that’ll carry over to this season, think again. The Canes did very little to improve and will still rely heavily on a bunch of players (Whitney, Brind’Amour, Scott Walker, Aaron Ward and Stephane Yelle) that are all 35 or older. Are you kidding me? They added nothing significant but lost Frantisek Kaberle and they also lost Erik Cole to an injury last game. Man, on paper this team looks bad indeed and they looked worse on the ice in Boston on Saturday night when they never had a chance. The Lightning lost also, 6-3 in Atlanta, but don’t put too much weight on that. Unlike the Canes, the Bolts have greatly improved with the additions of Mattias Ohlund, Alex Tanguay, and Kurtis Foster (although he’s out tonight). Throw in the talents of Vincent LeCavalier, Marty St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and you can instantly see that the Lightning are a much-better team. The second overall pick, Victor Hedman looks as good as advertised and he, too, makes the Bolts a better team. So, until the Canes show us something dramatically better than its two losses, I’ll play against them when they’re the chalk, end of story. Play: Tampa Bay +1.35 (Risking 2 units). Washington +1.11 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle Goaltending could be the only issue in Washington this season but they have the offense to compensate for the odd bad goal. Besides, it’s not like the Flyers are great in goal either and they, too, will see a number of soft goals and this is not the team to play when goaltending is questionable. What we all know is that the Caps are the greatest show on ice and can beat you in so many different ways. They went into Boston on opening night and it wasn’t close. They opened at home on Saturday against the Leafs and it was 3-0 before the popcorn had popped and it was 6-1 after two. This team is loaded and while they likely won’t go 82-0, they also won’t be a pooch more than about 8-10 times this season and when they are, I’m on it with no questions asked. The Flyers are also 2-0 but have played the Canes and Devils and will take a big step up in class tonight. More on the Flyers later because this one is all about taking back a tag on the Caps. Play Washington +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
FantasySportsGametime Tuesday MLB Plays MLB Baseball 50* Play Minnesota (-165) over Detroit (MLB PLAY) Minnesota has won 19 of the last 25 games when playing on a Tuesday and the have also won 26 of the last 36 games when playing with a day off. Minnesota has won 16 of the last 20 overall games and Scott Baker has won 24 of the last 31 games as a favorite of -125 to -175.
4 Unit Play. Take the Detroit Tigers +150 over the Minnesota Twins (Tuesday @ 5:05pm est). Write-up to come shortly. Good luck, IC
dave malinski Top of the Ticket - Tigers/Twins OVER 8.5 RUNS,MINNESOTA TWINS (Baker) -vs- Detroit Tigers (Porcello) 4* #932 MINNESOTA/DETROIT Over This will be the 19th game played between the Twins and Tigers this season, and only three of the previous 18 have finished below the ?8? that we see posted for this Total. Of the 18 previous posted Totals, an ?8? was only used three times, all games involving Justin Verlander. Which takes us to the obvious question ? do Rick Porcello and Scott Baker merit this range, even with fresh bullpens? Our answer is no. Neither of these starters bring overpowering stuff, relying more on finesse than throwing the ball past hitters. That is an issue because there is a high degree of familiarity for both lineups ? each starter has made two of his last three starts against this opponent, which means that the bag of tricks has been played through. And it is not as though they have been dominating in those past encounters; if anything Baker has been downright weak, while Porcello has particularly struggled in the Metrodome. This is the fifth time around for Baker against the Tigers this season, and in the first four they got to him for 15 runs on 29 hits over 20 innings, a hefty 6.75 allowance. He has had particular long-term issues with the red-hot Magglio Ordonez (.462 with two home runs over 39 at-bats), as well as Carlos Guillen (.407 over 27 at-bats) and Curtis Granderson (four home runs in 45 at-bats). Meanwhile this will be Porcello?s third outing from this mound, where he has allowed nine runs (seven earned) in 10 innings, on 15 hits and a pair of home runs. And Porcello brings an added issue here ? while keeping his pitch counts low was a big part of why he maintained his physical levels through his rookie season, he worked a career-high 111 pitches against the Twins in his last outing. Baker can bring a similar issue ? his 194 innings is by far a career high, and those five innings that he worked against the Tigers on Thursday required 105 pitches, his highest PPI since the All Star break, and tied for his third high of the season. He was not sharp, but got away with it.
4-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 Detroit at Minnesota (5 p.m., Tuesday, Oct. 6) 1-Unit Play. Take #923 Minnesota (-165) over Detroit (5 p.m., Tuesday, Oct. 6) 0.5-Unit Play. FIVE-INNING LINE: Take 'Under' 4.5 Detroit at Minnesota (5 p.m., Tuesday, Oct. 6) Ferringo
Tony Salinas Tony's Diamond Highrollers Tuesday, October 06, 2009 26* Twins {S.Baker} (-175) over Tigers {R.Porcello} 5:07 PM -- Metrodome Game is being played in a dome.
Benjamin lee Eckstein For Tuesday's elimination game between the Tigers and Twins "Mr Chalk" likes the Twins-$160.
Black Widow 6* Widow Wiseguy MTSU/Troy Sun Belt Side SLAUGHTER on Middle Tennessee State +7(-115 Bodog) The Blue Raiders are ready to stand up to the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt conference this season. MTSU is already 3-1 this season, beating Memphis, Maryland and North Texas. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 28.5 points/game, 407.2 yards/game and 274.8 passing yards/game. In fact, seven different receivers have caught touchdown passes from QB Dwight Dasher through just four games. This team has the balance that it takes to knock off the bully in the Sun Belt, which is the Trojans. Troy has won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 against MTSU, so you know that Blue Raiders will be hungry for some revenge tonight. The Trojans are 2-2 this season, with their only wins against 1-3 Arkansas State and 2-3 UAB. Troy is only putting up 19.2 points/game on offense this season, so they are lacking the explosiveness it takes to cover a touchdown spread at home tonight against an improved MTSU team. The Blue Raiders have 16 starters back this season compared to Troy's 12, including 10 on offense. The Blue Raiders are 12-3 (80%) ATS in their last 15 games in October. The Blue Raiders are 5-1 (83%) ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. MTSU has the balanced offense it takes to give the Trojans' defense fits tonight, likely pulling off the upset. Take Middle Tennessee State and the points.
Ben Burns Burns' Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE YEAR! **8-1 YTD** Analysis: I'm playing on Middle Tennessee State and Troy to finish OVER the total. These teams have seen the 'under' go 4-0 the last four seasons. However, I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. The last two meetings have both come very close to going over the total. Last year's game had an o/u line of 49.5 and finished with 48 combined points. The previous season, the teams combined for 52 points in a game which had an o/u line in the high 50s. In both cases, the Tro†jans did their part. In 2007, Troy finished with 45 points and last year the Trojans tallied 31. However, the Blue Raiders averaged only 12 points, scoring seven in 2007 and 17 last season. I expect the Trojans to again top the 30 mark tonight. Only this time, I also expect the Blue Raiders to chip in enough to help the game finish above the number. Playing on the road and facing a tough Clemson defense, the Blue Raiders managed only 14 points in their opener. However, since then, they've topped the 30 point mark in all three of their games. In fact, they've been scoring progressively more points every time that they've taken the field. They followed up their 14 point effort at Clemson by scoring 31 vs. Memphis. That was followed by an impressive 32-31 victory at Maryland. Last time out, they scored a whopping 37 at North Texas. Not surprisingly, three of their four games have eclipsed the total. Off three straight victories, it should also be noted that the Blue Raiders have now seen the OVER go a profitable 5-1 the last 2+ seasons, when coming off two or more consecutive wins. Here, QB Dwight Dasher will face a Troy defense which is giving up more than 260 passing yards per game. Note that Dasher has already thrown for more than 1000 yards (with seven TDs) while adding 250+ rushing yards and three rushing TD's. As for the Trojans, they're still the class of the conference. After a disappointing loss at Bowling Green in their opener, they got blown out at The Swamp by the Gators. Throw that one out the window as the Gators would do the same to nearly every team in the country. They've since responded with back to back SU/ATS victories, scoring 27 two weeks ago and 30 vs. Arkansas State last week. Back home and with the national spotlight on them, I expect a big effort from the offense. Note that the Trojans have seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times that they faced a team with a winning record. Both these teams returned significantly more players on offense than they did on defense this year. I expect that to be evident here with tonight's game proving to be the highest series meeting since these teams started having o/u lines in their games against each other. *9 Top Sun Belt Total
Sam Clayton 8-2 this year with 30 dime selections, going for No. 9 today!** 30 dime - DET/MIN Under 8.5 While several people are calling for a offensive barrage today in the Terrordome on national television, I'm thinking otherwise given the drastic one-game playoff atmosphere, one that has historically sailed under the posted total. 'Twas the same case last season as the Twins and White Sox squared off -- the media hyped the over drastically, said we'd be in for a slugfest -- and Chicago prevailed 1-0 at Comiskey Park. Now, I know the teams and the site have changed, but I expect much of the same tonight in the Twin Cities. In fact, since 1998, there have been four one-game playoffs and three went under the posted total. The lone over was posted in 2007 when Colorado beat San Diego 9-8 in 13 innings at Coors Field, where the ball just so happens to fly out of that park like a meteorite. Given the make-ups of these two teams and the pitching they'll be going up against, I love a low-scoring contest. Sinkerballer Rick Porcello faces a Minnesota lineup (sans Justin Morneau and Joe Crede) that doesn't have much power and Twins' righty Scott Baker squares off against a heavy right-handed hitting Detroit lineup. Not to mention, Detroit's best hitters are struggling, including Miguel Cabrera (1 for his last 15), whose love affair with booze and beating his wife have taken over his ability down the home stretch. Besides, as we've learned in years' past, the pressure has seemed to be on the hitters in sudden death games. I'm sure we'll see many timid swings and anxious approaches at the dish today just like we saw last season with Minnesota and Chicago. Contrary to popular belief, Porcello has actually turned things up a notch down the stretch. The 20-year-old rookie is 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA his last two starts and against Minnesota this year, he's 1-2 with a solid 3.09 ERA. How's this for an important intangible: Porcello has started four times against the Twinkies this year and the under has cashed every single time. Baker on the other hand has been lights out since the All-Star break, compiling a 8-2 record with a 3.21 ERA over that span. If he mixes his breaking ball and change like I know he can, he'll have a great outing. I really believe these two young pitchers will rise to the occasion tonight and keep runs off the board. I've capped this one out as a 4-2, 4-3 ballgame and I'd be really surprised to see anything different. This season, in the eight games in Minnesota between these two clubs, the under cashed five times. The 'Dome will be absolutely insane (just like it was last night for Monday Night Football) and I think it'll rattle many of the hitters. And if the ball gets to Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan, we shouldn't have to sweat it out. It might not be the popular pick, but it's the right one. Play the UNDER
OCTOBER 6 2009 FRANK PATRON 10000 UNIT COLLEGE WINNER FRANK PATRON 10000 UNIT COLLEGE WINNER TROY TROJANS -6.5
Tom Stryker's 100% Sun Belt Tuesday Night Super Play #302 TROY (-) over Middle Tenn St at 8 PM EST The Palladium Trophy has been resting comfortably in Troy, Alabama for the past three seasons and the Trojans would like to make sure it stays there another year. Troy has knocked off Middle Tennessee State by margins of 21-20, 45-7 and 31-17 in its last three meetings and, with a national ESPN2 audience watching, the Trojans goal is to win one more. The Blue Raiders won't exactly be an easy out. Since dropping its season opener at Clemson, MTSU has posted wins and covers in its last three games against Memphis, Maryland and North Texas. The Blue Raiders last two victories against the Terrapins and Mean Green came on foreign soil too! Ironically, Middle Tennessee's last two "W's" place the Blue Raiders in a rare play against situation. Since 1987, conference road teams coming off back-to-back straight up road wins are a soft 7-13 ATS provided their opponent checks in with momentum off a straight up victory. If our guest is battling with revenge, this system crashes to a disturbing 2-7 ATS! MTSU applies to the general situation and the tightener. With a 23-12 SU and 22-11 ATS record in its last 35 games, Troy has been a reliable investment option. The Trojans have been outstanding in Sun Belt action too posting a sterling 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS mark including a spotless 7-0 SU and ATS mark priced as an underdog or a favorite of -8 or less last. Since the start of the 2001 season, Troy has been tough to beat in the friendly confines of Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium posting a powerful 35-5 SU record. Only Oklahoma, USC and Ohio State have better winning percentages than that! With a national audience watching, the Trojans won't disappoint. Take Troy. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
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Larry Ness' 20* SBC Game of the Month (72.7% CFB run s/Sep 26)-Tue My 20* SBC Game of the Month is on Troy at 8:00 ET. Tony Franklin was a highly respected assistant at Troy in 2006 and 2007 under Larry Blakeney and then last year was fired as Auburn's offensive coordinator after the Tigers struggled to score points in the early going of what turned out to be a 'nightmare' season for the Tigers. Franklin was happily "scooped up" by Troy's Sun Belt rival MTSU and Franklin's spread offense has got the Blue Raiders believing they can end a three-year losing streak to the Trojans and take the early lead in the SBC race (no one is taking Louisiana-Monroe's 2-0 conference start too seriously). MTSU opened by losing at Clemson 37-14 but Franklin's offense is clicking behind QB Dwight Dasher these last three games. The Blue Raiders beat Memphis 31-14 in Murfreesboro plus then won at Maryland (32-31) and at Nothe Texas (37-21). That's three straight games over 30 points (an even 100 in all) for a team which has averaged just 19.1, 22.8, 25.7 and 22.8 PPG over the last four seasons. I guess Franklins IS doing his job. Dasher is averaging 257 YPG through the air but is completing a modest 55.5 percent with seven TDs and five INTs (nothing special about that ratio). Dasher is also the team's leading rusher 251 yards / 3.5 YPC), as RB Phillip Tanner (714 YR / 15 TDs in 2008) has been lost to a knee injury. Without Tanner the last two games, sophomore DD Kyles has totaled a modest 96 yards (3.4 YPC). Troy opened the 2009 season with an 'ugly' 31-14 loss at Bowling Green (led 14-0!) and then lost at "The Swamp" to the Gators, 56-6 (that game is irrelevant). The Trojans rebounded with a 27-14 home win over UAB and then on September 26, got an impressive 30-27 road win vs a solid Arkansas St team (just lost 24-21 at Iowa last Saturday!). After rolling up 551 yards vs UAB, Troy outgained Ark St 507 to 305, holding the Red Wolves to 13 FDs and just 70 yards rushing on 25 carries. QB Levi Brown didn't win the starting job until mid-season last year but owns a firm hold on it in 2009 and his 355-yard two TD performance at Ark St followed his 24-of-32 for 413-yard effort vs Memphis. Brown will face a MTSU pass D which has allowed its last two opponents to complete 64.3 percent for 288 and 301 yards. The last time out at North Texas, QB Dodge threw 54 times and NEVER got sacked by MTSU's pass rush (excuse the pun!). Expect Brown to have a "field day!" As for the Troy D, it is well-familiar with Franklin's offense from his days with the Trojans and if one were to ignore the Florida game (why not?), the Trojans are allowing 98.7 YPG on the ground (3.4 YPC) plus as mentioned, will be well-prepared for QB Dasher. Troy won at MTSU last year 31-17 and two years ago at this venue, won 45-7. MTSU will be playing its THIRD straight road game (in 18 days) and takes on a team which has gone 37-5 SU at home this decade. Troy has gone 6-1 SU in each of the last three years in Sun Belt play (beaten MTSU each year)- and has opened 2009 with that win at Ark St. SBC Game of the Month 20* Troy. Good luck...Larry
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Marco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line Tue, 10/06/09 - 5:05 PM oB dime bet ml 932 MIN (-160) BetUS vs 931 DET Analysis: PLAY: MINNESOTA RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY Minnesota at home facing a 20 year rookie that is enough for me. The Twins are Red Hot and remind of Colorado 2 years ago. Take Minnesota. Marco Rated this Play a One UNIT PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
ANTONY DINERO Middle-Tennessee at Troy Pick: Troy -6.5 Troy's athletic defense should be able to hang with Middle Tennessee dual-threat QB Dwight Dasher, who is basically the whole show on offense. If the Trojans can contain playmakers well enough to consistently spy on Dasher and limit his ability to escape downfield for long gains, they should be able to control this game and set the pace early. Troy QB Levi Brown has his full arsenal of playmakers available to him with talented freshman Shawn Southward back, giving the home side an explosive attack with which to drop the Blue Raiders. Lay the points.
The Duke's Middle Tennessee State (+7) for 1.5 Units MTS is a veteran team that demonstrated strength on the road with a win at MD and at North Texas. The Blue Raiders, which are 12-3 ATS in October, are looking to avenge last year's 31-17 home loss and should fare well here; after all, MTS sports a 5-1 ATS mark with revenge off a double-digit ATS win. MTS has a veteran offense that can move the football well under former Troy OC Tony Franklin. Troy has struggled defensively and we don't like laying wood with struggling defenses. We'll look for MTS to trade points effectively and cover.
Mr. A's Tuesday, October 6th, 2009 8:00 PM EST. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (3-1) at Troy Trojans (2-2) Movie Gallery Stadium, Troy, Alabama Troy's defense and home field advantage grabs a victory in this Sun Belt rivalry. The Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home and 3-0 ATS in their past 3 meetings versus the Blue Raiders, 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Oddsmakers: Troy as a -6½ point home favorite with the total listed at (NA) 'over'. Troy Trojans -6½
Johnny Guild Tuesday, October 6th, 2009 8:00 PM EST. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders(3-1) at Troy Trojans(2-2) Movie Gallery Stadium, Troy, Alabama Home Record: Middle Tennessee 1-0, Troy 1-0 Road Record: Middle Tennessee 2-1, Troy 1-2. All-Time Series: Middle Tennessee leads, 11-5. Last Meeting: 08/28/08 (Troy 31-17 at Middle Tennessee State) I expect a close battle between these rested Sun Belt teams, both had this past weekend off. Troy won the last three meetings against Middle Tennessee State. However, the Blue Raiders have improved this season, while Troy doesn’t appear to be as good as last year. Take the Blue Raiders in a close battle with the defending Sun Belt Champions. The road team in this series has won and covered the spread in the last four meetings. Trends Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games versus Middle Tennessee Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The total has gone under in the last 4 meetings. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +7