Service PLays 9/3/09

Here we go. 1st set of services for FOOTBALL time

Big Al Thursday Night Game of the Year

At 10:15 pm, our Thursday Night Game of the Year is on the 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks plus the points over 14th-ranked Boise State, as Oregon falls into two revenge systems of mine that are 38-13 and 57-24 ATS since 1980. And our 57-24 ATS system is on a 12-0 ATS run since September 5, 2004! Last year, Boise went into Eugene as 10-point underdogs and upset the Ducks 37-32. But you know what they say about "paybacks!" In last year's game, Oregon was forced to use three quarterbacks due to injuries sustained against Boise State. That, however, shouldn't be a problem on Thursday. And, speaking of quarterbacks, Oregon has a great one, in junior Jeremiah Masoli, who fits new coach Chip Kelly's spread system perfectly. Indeed, Masoli might just be the best QB in the Pac-10. Also, no conference performs better as underdogs than the Pac-10, as its teams are a solid 188-135 as underdogs vs. non-conference foes since 1980, including an eye-popping 79-39 ATS when our Pac-10 team is NOT a losing team, and it's a competitive game where the pointspread is less than 7 points. Oregon, itself, is 23-12 ATS its last 35 as underdogs, including 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Take the points. Thursday Night Game of the Year on the Oregon Ducks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my big winners on Saturday in College Football, or my NFL and Baseball Winners, as we're having a great season thus far (including 78% in the Preseason).

 

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (8/17)
Game 127-128: South Carolina at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 90.665; North Carolina State 99.866
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 9; 49
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (-3 1/2); Over

Game 129-130: Utah State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 80.805; Utah 100.492
Dunkel Line: Utah by 19 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Utah by 21; 52
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+21); Under

Game 131-132: Oregon at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 109.912; Boise State 105.588
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 4 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Boise State by 6; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+6); Over

Game 133-134: Troy at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 88.330; Bowling Green 80.939
Dunkel Line: Troy by 7 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Troy by 6; 59
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-6); Over

Game 135-136: North Texas at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 61.380; Ball State 77.241
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 16; 55
Vegas Line: Ball State by 17 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+17 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (8/17)
North Dakota State at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 73.764; Iowa State 78.457
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2
Villanova at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 79.510; Temple 77.262
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 2
Coastal Carolina at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 47.359; Kent State 77.810
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 30 1/2
Western Illinois at Sam Houston State
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 70.149; Sam Houston State 63.000
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 7
Eastern Kentucky at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 62.186; Indiana 79.435
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 17
Illinois State at Eastern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 63.512; Eastern Illinois 53.290
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 10

 

WUNDERDOG NCAAF

I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play.
Game: North Texas at Ball State (Thursday 9/03 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Ball State -17 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 59.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Ball State Cardinals put themselves on the map last season winning 12 games and a national ranking. The Cards lost a lot on offense and have just four starters returning. But, that includes RB MiQuale Lewis who ran for 1,736 yards last year and 22 TDs, and WR Briggs Orsbon who caught 68 balls a year ago. The Cardinals will be breaking in a new QB, so I'd look for the offense to be dominated by Lewis running a lot here, especially against a poor North Texas defense. The strength of the Cardinals may be on the defensive front line as they have all four starters from a good unit coming back. North Texas has gone just 3-21 over their last three years and went 1-11 a year ago. In the early going last season, they were especially bad, losing each of their first five games by 30 points or more. Even with a lot of returnees, there is just such a mountain to climb here. Despite the losses, Ball State is still light years ahead of this North Texas team and I like them to run away with this one. I also like the UNDER here. The Mean Green will also be breaking in a new QB in this one, so both teams could be pounding the ball and passing short. With two brand new QB's I expect a conservative approach in the opener, and a lot of running. I have a system that features early-season games with inexperienced QBs that has gone UNDER to the tune of 33-16 the past five years. I like this one to come in under 60 points.
Game: Utah State at Utah (Thursday 9/03 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Utah -20.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Utah was a perfect 13-0 a year ago. Despite losing a lot of talent to graduation, this is a team with a lot of depth and excellent recruiting every year. So the drop is not a huge one. They have to replace the best QB in school history but there are three viable candidates, and the offense returns many talented skill players at RB and WR. The defense is good and loaded with talent, especially at linebacker. It will be the defense that carries the team this time around. We go from one of the Mountain West's annual powers, to one of the WAC's annual losers, and the weak sister in the state. The Aggies finished just 3-9 a year ago and have a lot of returning players, but the problem is that the talent level here vs. the Utes is a very wide gap. That disparity is quite big as evidenced by the fact that the last five years these teams have met, the scores add up to 219-41 for Utah, or an average win of 34 points per game. There have been three games decided by 40+ points in the last five years. Utah is the choice in this one.

 

The Gold Sheet


COLLEGE ANALYSIS
KEY: Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are
listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards,
passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost.
In each statistical category the leader is listed first. SR—Series Record.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
*South Carolina 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 23—Well aware NCS
eager to avenge LY’s embarrassing 34-0 shutout in Columbia (see Looking for
an Angle), but still prefer to “take” with USC squad possessing more weapons
due to HC Spurrier’s recent recruiting hauls. TGS scouts report ‘Cocks
previously-unsteady soph QB Stephen Garcia has honed his decision-making
(less freelancing) under tutelege of new QB coach G.A. Mangus. And with a
group of RBs providing greater burst TY (112th in rushing LY) and a nastier OL,
Garcia works play-action to a dynamic WR corps (gifted 6-3 frosh WRs Bennett
& Jeffrey ready to make early impact) vs. thin, rebuilding Wolfpack 2ndary
coping with a couple of unexpected preseason departures. And while USC
missing suspended 6-8, 281 DE Clifton Geathers, that loss is more than offset
by season-ending injury to State’s ubiquitous LB Nate Irving (80 tackles, 11
TFL, 4 ints. LY). USC’s unorthodox 4-2-5 defense not easily solved, and NCS
just 3-11 as home chalk since ‘04. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-S. CAR. 34-Ncsu 0...S.20-10 S.42/171 N.37/89 S.17/27/4/198 N.5/20/2/49 S.0 N.2)
(08-SOUTH CAROLINA -14 34-0...SR: EVEN 26-26-4)

*UTAH 30 - Utah State 14—With nationally-ranked Utah needing to rebuild
on offensive side (replacing 7 starters including school’s No. 2 all-time leading
QB Brian Johnson), not so sure Utes easily garner their 15th straight victory (12th
consecutive in series) vs. instate rival Utah State. After all, Aggies’ nononsense
1st-year HC Gary Anderson should have a plan on how to attack the
aggressive, gap-control Ute defense (17 ppg) after serving as Utah d.c. L5Ys.
Utah State’s athletic jr. QB Diondre Borel (9 starts LY, 56%), who is directing
new no-huddle attack with nearly all key weapons back, has good running skills
(855 YR LY!). Behind revamped OL (lost 3 starters), Utah’s untested, stillcompeting
QBs juco Terrance Cain and/or true frosh Jordan Wynn might not
carve up reshuffled, fortified (with several jucos), seasoned Aggie defense,
especially with top 3 Ute WRs graduating. Visitor 7-1-1 last 9 in series.
(08-Utah 58-UTAH ST. 10...U.29-8 U.48/233 S.25/27 U.23/32/1/213 S.9/23/1/89 U.2 S.2)
(08-Utah -24' 58-10 07-UTAH -21' 34-18 06-Utah -20 48-0...SR: Utah 76-28-4)

*BOISE STATE 34 - Oregon 32—Don’t tell Boise supporters that it’s too
early to start talking about the BCS. And Broncs (no reg.-season losses on blue
carpet since ‘01!) retain enough elements (including soph southpaw QB Moore)
from LY’s 12-1 squad to make a run at postseason party. But rebuilt BSU front
7 could be a bit vulnerable vs. potent Duck weapons QB Masoli & RB Blount,
while Pac-10 sources say UO won’t miss a beat with new HC Chip Kelly (Mike
Bellotti’s o.c. past 2 years). Remember that Ducks were down to 3rd-string QB
Thomas in LY’s home loss vs. Broncos. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-Boise St. 37-ORE. 32...O.29-16 O.52/227 B.35/38 B.24/36/1/386 O.16/32/3/237 B.1 O.1)
(08-Boise State +10' 37-32...SR: Boise State 1-0)

ADDED GAMES
*Troy 35 - BOWLING GREEN 24—Can’t expect much right away from BG
side still adjusting to new HC Dave Clawson and his staff. Falcon defensive
questions remain unanswered, as BG returns just 3 starters after dismissing NT
Michael Ream and had to hold out star S P.J. Mahone from recent scrimmages
with a neck problem. Troy averaged 33 ppg after Levi Brown took over at QB
LY, as he threw 15 TDs & just 3 ints. in 8 starts. Brown played for Clawson at
Richmond in 2005-06, so he should know how to attack the defensive scheme.
Trojans are 7-3 last 10 as a road favorite and have an explosive rush game led
by 5-7 jr. DuJuan Harris (5.1 ypc, 14 TDs LY). A defense that boasts 4 players
on the Lombardi watch list and one of the best kickers in the southeast in sr.
Sam Glusman (108 pts.) give Troy more edges. (FIRST MEETING)

*BALL STATE 42 - North Texas 17—Realize Ball State attack won’t get
quite the same production now that star QB Nate Davis and 4 offensive linemen
have moved on, but see little percentage in backing North Texas. The not-so-
Mean Green defense has yielded 47 & 48 ppg the last two seasons, and UNT
has a 16-30 spread mark in last 46 games on the line. North Texas has dropped
its last 3 openers by a combined score of 180-23, and BG star RB MiQuale
Lewis should do some damage facing Mean Green defense that’s yielded 5.6
ypc under Todd Dodge, who’s son, RS frosh QB Riley Dodge, will be under
tremendous pressure from vet Card DL. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(FIRST MEETING)

 

The Gold Sheet Extra

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
SOUTH CAROLINA at NC STATE (Thursday, September 3)... NCS
closed with a rush last season, covering its last 8 games. Although
Wolfpack was not favored in any of those! NCS just 1-6 as chalk since
‘06 (1-2 under O’Brien since '07), but Wolfpack was 5-0 vs. spread in
revenge role LY and will be looking for some after absorbing 34-0
pasting in last season’s opener. Spurrier has covered just 5 of last 18
on board (5-11-2 vs. line). He’s also just 2-6 last 8 as dog, and 2-7 vs.
number last 9 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Tech edge-NCS,
based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at UTAH (Thursday, September 3)...Road team is 4-0-
1 vs. line last 5 and 7-1-1 against spread last 9 in this in-state rivalry.
Utes 14-6 vs. number last 20 on board overall, although they were
only 1-2 vs. line laying DDs at Salt Lake City LY. Note Utah “over” 11-
2 last 13 on board. Utags not bad lately, either, 13-6 vs. spread last 19
on board, and covered 8 of last 12 away from Logan. Andersen debut
for Utags. Tech edge-Utah State, based on series and team trends.

OREGON at BOISE STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Chip Kelly
debut at UO. Bellotti was 13-6 vs. line his last 19 as dog away from
home. Ducks 6-2 vs. line in non-Pac 10 action since ‘07 with one of
those defeats vs. Boise LY. Boise only 2-2 vs. line on blue carpet LY
but 39-15 in role since ‘99. Interestingly, Broncos have covered only
2 of last 7 in first game of season on board. Tech edge-slight to
Oregon, based on team trends.

TROY at BOWLING GREEN (Thursday, September 3)...Troy now 7-
2 vs. number last 9 as visiting favorite. Trojans also 8-4 vs. line last 12
vs. non-Belt foes. Clawson debut at Bowling Green, which
nonetheless covered 12 of last 17 on board for Brandon. Falcons were
3-0 as a dog LY and are 7-1 as a regular-season dog since ‘07, also 5-
2 vs. line in reg.-season vs. non-MAC foes since ‘07. Tech edge-slight
to Troy, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Ball
begins the Stan Parrish era. Cards, however, were only 2-5 vs.
number laying DDs the past two glory years under Brady Hoke despite
19-10 spread mark last 29 on board. Todd Dodge just 4-8 vs. line LY,
and UNT only 7-14 vs. spread as visitor dating back to ‘06. Dodge also
just 6-11 as DD dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based
on UNT negatives.

 

CKO

TOTALS: UNDER (52) in the Utah State-Utah game (Thursday night)—Utah defense still plenty rugged, while last year’s Ute defensive coordinator, Gary
Anderson, is now the Aggies’ head coach!...OVER (64) in the Oregon-Boise State game (Thursday night)—Both offenses should be at their tricky, wideopen
best for this shootout on the blue carpet in a game the Broncos cannot afford to lose if they want to be a BCS buster

 

THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST SERVICES IN THE GAME

From Lt. Dan

RAS early College FB for 9/5/2009... watch the #'s move!

#147 Akron +27

#170 E Mich -5

#183 ID +3

#199 MTSU +19'

All for 1 Unit

 

From Lt. Dan

RAS College FB - Thursday

#136 Ball St. UNDER 59'... 1 Unit

 

From another forum and not confirmed.

Dr. Bob

Best Bet

Ole Miss

Opinions

Missouri
Cinnci
UCLA under

 

NFL DUNKEL


Detroit at Buffalo
The final week of the preseason starts Thursday night with the Lions visiting Buffalo. The Bills are the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has Buffalo favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3). Here are all of this week's preseason picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

Game 101-102: Detroit at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 119.810; Buffalo 124.679
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 30
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 33
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Under

Game 103-104: Philadelphia at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 118.773; NY Jets 123.094
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: NY Giants at New England
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 121.337; New England 120.829
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 34
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Under

Game 107-108: Washington at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 115.722; Jacksonville 123.920
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8; 34 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 5; 35
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-5); Under

Game 109-110: Baltimore at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 121.431; Atlanta 123.467
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under

Game 111-112: Indianapolis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 115.508; Cincinnati 120.542
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5; 40
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Pittsburgh at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 120.717; Carolina 121.481
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Over

Game 115-116: Cleveland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 119.866; Chicago 121.298
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

Game 117-118: Miami at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.426; New Orleans 125.812
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Over

Game 119-120: Green Bay at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 121.127; Tennessee 126.537
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Under

Game 121-122: Kansas City at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 117.201; St. Louis 121.980
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 123-124: Arizona at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 117.433; Denver 120.604
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 39
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 125-126: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.336; Seattle 126.628
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 32 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under

 

NFL LONG SHEET


Week 4

Thursday, September 3

DETROIT (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 3) - 9/3/2009, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 9/3/2009, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
NY JETS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1993.
NY JETS are 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (1 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 9/3/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1993.
NY GIANTS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 9/3/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1993.
WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993.
WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (2 - 1) - 9/3/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
ATLANTA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in dome games since 1993.
ATLANTA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 9/3/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at CAROLINA (0 - 3) - 9/3/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 9/3/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 0) - 9/3/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home lined games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 0) at TENNESSEE (2 - 2) - 9/3/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 3) at ST LOUIS (2 - 1) - 9/3/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1993.
KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (0 - 3) at DENVER (0 - 3) - 9/3/2009, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (3 - 0) - 9/3/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

NFL SHORT SHEET


Week 4

Thursday, 9/3/2009

DETROIT at BUFFALO, 6:30 PM ET
DETROIT: 12-4 Under last week of preseason
BUFFALO: 28-13 Under vs. NFC

(TC) PHILADELPHIA at NY JETS, 7:00 PM ET NFL
PHILADELPHIA: 1-8 ATS vs. NFC
NY JETS: 23-7 ATS last two weeks of preseason

NY GIANTS at NEW ENGLAND, 7:30 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 9-22 ATS last two weeks of preseason
NEW ENGLAND: 13-4 Over at home last two weeks of preseason

WASHINGTON at JACKSONVILLE, 7:30 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 1-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
JACKSONVILLE: 7-1 ATS off loss by 6 pts or less

BALTIMORE at ATLANTA, 7:30 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 0-6 ATS off non-conf game
ATLANTA: 6-0 Under playing with 6 or less days rest

INDIANAPOLIS at CINCINNATI, 7:30 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-2 Over Away off an Under
CINCINNATI: 6-1 ATS vs. AFC South

PITTSBURGH at CAROLINA, 8:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 1-4 ATS in road games
CAROLINA: 18-7 Over if total is 35 or less

CLEVELAND at CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 7-0 ATS if scored 3 pts or less in the 1st half last game
CHICAGO: 4-14 ATS at home last two weeks of preseason

MIAMI at NEW ORLEANS, 8:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 8-2 Under in all preseason games
NEW ORLEANS: 3-12 ATS at home off an ATS win

GREEN BAY at TENNESSEE, 8:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 4-0 ATS off BB games w/ TO margin of +2 or better
TENNESSEE: 9-0 Under at home off SU loss

KANSAS CITY at ST LOUIS, 8:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 0-7 ATS off SU loss
ST LOUIS: 14-4 Under at home off non-conf game

ARIZONA at DENVER, 9:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 11-5 Over last week of preseason
DENVER: 8-0 ATS off home loss

OAKLAND at SEATTLE, 10:00 PM ET NFL
OAKLAND: 21-8 Under off home game
SEATTLE: 7-0 ATS in all preseason games

 

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bet

Seattle Storm at Washington Mystics (-2, 143)

The big story in the lone Thursday WNBA matchup is about who won’t be playing. Storm center and former WNBA MVP Lauren Jackson hasn’t played the last two games and isn’t expected to play against Washington because of a stress fracture in her back.

Other Seattle players are stepping up in Jackson’s absence. The club has won six straight (5-0-1 against the spread) and is hot on the Mercury’s heels for top spot in the Western Conference.

“Our goal is still to win the conference,” Seattle coach Brian Agler said after his club’s most recent victory. “Even though we’re in (the playoffs), we’re still trying to fight for position out in the West. We still feel like we have a chance to get first place.”

The Mystics aren’t going to catch the Fever for the top seed in the East, but they could end up as high as second if they finish strong.

The chances of a late run may have disappeared after All-Star guard Alana Beard had to be helped off the floor in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game against Minnesota.

“She’s playing through a lot of pain right now,” Mystics coach Julie Plank told the Washington Times. “I know she would give anything to be out there. The most important thing for our team is that they’re 100 percent.”

Plank sounded optimistic about her star’s availability for Thursday’s game, but if she does play it might be limited.

Pick: Storm

 

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

South Carolina at North Carolina St.

South Carolina kicks off its fifth season under coach Steve Spurrier as it travels to across state lines to battle the Wolfpack as these teams open up against each other for the second straight year.

The Gamecocks began 2008 with a 34-0 rout of North Carolina State as a 14-point home favorite which propelled them to a 7-3 start (6-3 ATS). However, South Carolina fell hard from there, losing its final three games by scores of 56-6 (at Florida), 31-14 (at Clemson) and 31-10 (vs. Iowa in the Outback Bowl), never threatening to cover in any of those contests to end the year 7-6 SU and 6-6 ATS.

After getting blitzed at South Carolina to start last season, North Carolina State went on to be the best bet in college football, covering the spread in 10 of its final 11 lined games, including the last eight in a row. The Wolfpack finished the regular season with four consecutive ACC victories (4-0 ATS) before losing to Rutgers 29-23 as a seven-point underdog in the Papajohns.com Bowl.

Both teams return their starting quarterbacks from a year ago. N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,955 yards with a remarkable 17-1 touchdown to interception ratio, and he enters this game having thrown 249 passes without getting picked off. He leads an offense that averaged 23.5 points per game overall last year, while the defense surrendered 26.3 ppg.

South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia took over the starting QB chores in the middle of last season and finished completing just 53.3 percent of his throws for 832 yards with six TDs but eight INTs. The Gamecocks put up 20.8 ppg and defensively, they gave up an average of 15.6 points in the first 10 games but 39.3 in the final three.

In addition to cashing in its final eight contests last year, N.C. State is on a 15-4 ATS roll overall. However, the Wolfpack are otherwise in pointspread slumps of 2-7-1 in non-conference play, 7-19 as a favorite, 3-11 as a home chalk since 2004 and 3-9 in September. Meanwhile, South Carolina also carries negative ATS trends of 5-11-2 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-5 in non-conference play and 0-4 as an underdog, but it is 8-4-1 ATS as a road pup since Spurrier took over.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Gamecocks’ last six roadies, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 6-1 in non-conference play, 5-2 versus the ACC, 5-1-1 in September and 5-2-1 on Thursday. Likewise, N.C. State is on “under” runs of 8-3-2 in non-league action, 10-2-1 as a favorite and 7-1 on Thursday. Finally, last year’s season-opening clash between these schools stayed well under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(16) Oregon at (14) Boise State

One of the most intriguing matchups of college football’s opening weekend comes from Bronco Stadium, where No. 14 Boise State looks for its 50th straight regular-season win on the blue turf as it hosts the 16th-ranked Ducks and new coach Chip Kelly.

The Broncos started last season with 12 consecutive wins, including a 37-32 upset victory at Oregon on Sept. 20. But after steamrolling to their sixth consecutive Western Athletic Conference title and climbing to No. 9 in the polls, they failed to gain a berth in a BCS Bowl. Boise State ended up settling for the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, where it fell 17-16 to 11th-ranked TCU, cashing as a three-point underdog to finish the year 12-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS.

In what was expected to be a rebuilding season in 2008, Oregon ended up tied for second place in the Pac-10 standings and finished 10-3 overall (7-6 ATS) in longtime coach Mike Bellotti’s final year. After losing to Boise State, the Ducks won six of their final eight games, including the last four in a row, capped by a 42-31 victory over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl.

In last year’s meeting in Eugene, Ore., Boise State jumped out to a 37-13 lead after three quarters then withstood a furious Ducks rally to hold on for the 37-32 win as a 10½-point road underdog. The game featured 888 yards of total offense and six turnovers (four by Oregon).

The Broncos averaged 37.6 points and 440.8 yards per game last year, and they ranked third in the nation in scoring defense (12.6 ppg allowed). QB Kellen Moore, who threw for 386 yards and three TDs in the win at Oregon, is one of 12 returning starters for Boise State (six offense, six defense). Moore last year completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,486 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs.

Kelly was the offensive coordinator the last two seasons under Bellotti and last year guided a unit that ranked seven nationally in scoring (42 ppg) and second in rushing (280.1 ypg). Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli (57 percent, 1,744 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs; 718 rushing yards, 10 TDs last year) is one of just 10 returning starters for the Ducks.

Boise State cashed in its final three games last year and went 2-2-1 ATS in its five lined home games, but it is 40-17-2 ATS in its last 59 at Bronco Stadium. In fact, the Broncos have won 49 consecutive regular-season games on the Smurf Turf dating to Sept. 8, 2001, though they did lose to Boston College in the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl on their home field. Additionally, Boise is on ATS surges of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10, 5-1 on Thursday and 15-3 when laying 10 points or less.

Oregon is 8-1 in its last nine non-conference games (6-1 ATS in lined action), the lone loss coming to the Broncos last year. Also, under Bellotti, the Ducks were 13-6 ATS in its last 19 as a road ‘dog, and they’re on further pointspread runs of 13-5 in September, 4-1 against the WAC and 14-6 on artificial turf.

The Ducks are on “over” runs of 7-3-2 overall, 16-5-2 in September, 6-0 against the WAC and 6-1-1 on artificial turf. However, the under is 8-3 in Boise State’s last 11 in September and 11-4 in its last 15 non-league games. Finally, last year’s 37-32 shootout easily cleared the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NFL PRESEASON

Philadelphia (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

The Jets look to continue their Week 4 preseason dominance of the Eagles and avoid their first losing summer since 1996 as these teams close out the exhibition campaign against each other for the ninth straight year.

Philadelphia rallied from deficits off 17-3, 27-13 and 30-20 against the Jaguars a week ago, pulling out a 33-32 victory, never threatening to cover as a seven-point home favorite. Michael Vick made his much-hyped debut in the contest, going 4-for-4 for 19 yards and rushing once for a yard as he played six first-half snaps.

Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and many of his starters will sit this game out. Backup QB Kevin Kolb will start, with Vick going under center late in the first half and starting the second half at quarterback. A.J. Feeley would follow Vick.

The Jets held off the Giants in their annual Week 3 preseason battle on Saturday, eking out a 27-25 victory as a three-point underdog. New York coach Rex Ryan said rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the rest of his starters will play just one series. Backup Kellen Clemens should follow, but expect rookie Erik Ainge to see the bulk of the action.

New York is 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, but it is just 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine at the Meadowlands (including neutral-site games against the Giants). The Jets have also failed to cash in five of their last six when laying points in the preseason.

Not only have the Eagles failed to cover in four straight preseason games, they’re 3-8 ATS in exhibition action since the start of 2007 and they’re 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) as a preseason visitor since 2006. They’ve also dropped seven consecutive Week 4 meetings against the Jets and they’re 2-6 ATS in this preseason rivalry since 2001. Four of those eight battles were decided by three points or less.

Philadelphia has gone over the posted price in six straight preseason games and 10 of its last 11, while New York has topped the total in four straight exhibition outings going back to last year’s 27-20 win over the Eagles. In fact, the over is 4-1 in the last five summer meetings between these squads.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and OVER


N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

The annual Giants-Patriots Week 4 battle takes place at Gillette Stadium, with New England likely taking the field without Tom Brady.

Despite a strong performance from Eli Manning (12-for-17, 181 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs), New York fell 27-25 to the rival Jets on Saturday as a three-point chalk. Coach Tom Coughlin normally plays his starters, including Manning, for about a quarter in the preseason finale, but said earlier this week that he may alter that plan. He did acknowledge that young QBs Andre Woodson and rookie Rhett Bomar would see significant action, meaning No. 2 passer David Carr may be the odd man out in this contest.

New England got a last-minute field goal to upend Washington 27-24 on Friday, but fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. Brady was sharp in one half of action against the Redskins, going 12-for-19 for 150 yards and two TDs, but on his final pass, he was driven to the ground by Albert Haynesworth and hurt his shoulder. Brady threw in practice this week and appears fine, but coach Bill Belichick usually doesn’t play Brady or the majority of his starters in Week 4.

The Patriots surprisingly waived No. 2 QB Kevin O’Connell this week, leaving the offense for this game in the hands of Andrew Walter (who joined the Pats on Aug. 4) and rookie free agent Brian Hoyer.

New England is now in a 1-6 ATS exhibition slump (2-5 SU) since the start of last summer, going 0-3 SU and ATS at home. Meanwhile, New York failed to get the money the last two weeks and is 3-5 SU and ATS in true preseason road games since Coughlin took over in 2004. However, the Giants are still 6-1 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2006.

These teams have matched up in the preseason finale each of the last four years, with the Giants going 3-1 SU and ATS, including a 19-14 win as a 2½-point home chalk in 2008. The favorite has cashed in each of the last three preseason battles. Going back to 2001, the home team is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in exhibition clashes.

The under is 9-6 in New York’s last 15 summer affairs, but the over is 9-6 in New England’s last 15 (4-2 last six at home).

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Miami (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)

For the third straight year, the Dolphins and Saints – both of whom are gunning for their first perfect summer this decade – end the exhibition campaign with a battle at the Superdome.

Miami rallied for a 10-6 victory at Tampa Bay last Thursday, covering in a pick-em contest in a game delayed for an hour in the first half because of a lightning storm. Coach Tony Sparano didn’t tip his hand with regard to playing time tonight, but in last year’s preseason finale against the Saints, starting QB Chad Penning threw just four passes, with backup Chad Henne playing the majority of the game. Expect the same tonight, with Henne followed by rookie Pat White.

New Orleans is coming off the most dominating performance of any NFL team this preseason, plastering the Raiders 45-7 as a three-point road chalk. Saints coach Sean Payton, whose team has won its three games by a combined score of 100-28, said his first-string units will probably play just one series. However, QB Drew Brees (14-for-17, 179 yards, 2 TDs in less than a half vs. Oakland) may sit out as he did last year in Week 4. Mark Brunell will either start or replace Brees, but the bulk of the QB playing time will likely go to third-stringer Joey Harrington.

Since beginning the Sparano era with a 17-6 loss to Tampa Bay last year, the Dolphins have now won six consecutive preseason games (6-0 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. That includes a 14-10 win in New Orleans as a one-point road pup to end the 2008 preseason. Since 2007, Miami is on a 4-1 ATS roll as an underdog, and it is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six Week 4 contests, including 3-1 SU and ATS against the Saints.

Although it scored a 17-7 Week 1 win and spread-cover over the Bengals at the Superdome, New Orleans remains just 2-5 SU and ATS at home since Payton took over. The Saints are also 1-5 SU and ATS in preseason finales since 2003.

These teams have met in preseason play seven times since 1999, with the visitor going 6-1 SU and ATS. Also, the underdog cashed in all seven games.

The Saints have topped the total the last two weeks, following a 9-2 “under” run in exhibition play. Miami has stayed low in eight of Miami’s last 10 summer contests, including six of the last seven. Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four Saints-Dolphins preseason battles and 5-1 in New Orleans’ last six preseason finales.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER


Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (0-3 SU and ATS)

The Panthers attempt to avoid their first winless preseason since 2000 as they close out the summer against the Steelers for the seventh straight year.

Ben Roethlisberger returned to action Saturday and completed 15 of 19 passes for 168 yards while the defense allowed just 135 total yards as the Steelers blitzed the Bills 17-0, cashing as a six-point home favorite. If coach Mike Tomlin sticks with his previous Week 4 game plans, Roethlisberger will play very little if at all tonight (he didn’t play against Carolina last summer and threw just two passes in 2007). Look for veteran backup Charlie Batch to see most of the first-half action, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. No. 3 QB Dennis Dixon remains out with an injury.

Carolina’s lackluster preseason continued with Saturday’s 17-13 loss to Baltimore as a 3½-point home favorite, getting outgained 421-281. John Fox said if his starters go at all tonight, they’ll only be on the field for one or two series, though QB Jake Delhomme has sat out the exhibition finale against Pittsburgh each of the last two years. If that trend continues, look for Matt Moore (who didn’t play last week) to get the bulk of the work, with rookie Hunter Cantwell also seeing action. Delhomme’s backup – veteran Josh McCown – probably won’t play.

The Panthers are mired in a 2-8 SU and ATS preseason funk, going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS at home in this span and 1-4 ATS as a favorite.

The Steelers are 3-10 ATS in its last 13 preseason road games, but two of the spread-covers came in Carolina in 2005 and 2007, both outright upsets. In fact, Pittsburgh and Carolina have capped the preseason against one another the last six years, with the Steelers going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four. Also, the ‘dog is 5-0 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five exhibition meetings, with four of those decided by four points or fewer.

The under is 14-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 preseason games (3-0 this year) and 7-1 in its last eight away from home. Also, the under is 5-2 in Carolina’s last seven summer home contests, and the last three preseason clashes between these teams have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER



NATIONAL LEAGUE

San Francisco (73-60) at Philadelphia (76-54)

The Giants will try to make it two of three at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia when they send ace Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies and veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez (2-0, 4.50).

San Francisco got a gem of an outing from newly acquired Brad Penny on Wednesday, as he tossed eight shutout innings against Philadelphia, giving up just five hits in a 4-0 win. The Giants improved to 6-2 in the last eight matchups with the Phillies, but they are still just 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia.

The Giants are on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 37-17 as favorites and 5-1 against right-handers. Meanwhile, despite Wednesday’s setback, the Phillies remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 37-17 overall, 22-9 at home, 6-1 against the N.L. West, 5-0 as an underdog and 11-6 against right-handed starters.

Lincecum is coming off Friday’s 2-0 home victory over the Rockies in which he scattered eight hits and three walks over eight scoreless innings, striking out eight. The right-hander has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, and the Giants are 5-2 in his last seven starts and 4-1 in his last five as a road chalk.

Lincecum is 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 road outings in 2009 and 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, including a 2-0 victory on Aug. 1 in which he allowed seven hits and a walk in eight shutout innings. He’s allowed six runs (only two earned) in his last three efforts against Philadelphia covering 22 innings (0.82 ERA).

The Phils are a perfect 4-0 when Martinez has taken the hill, but he’s only pitched five innings at home because of rain delays, allowing one run on three hits in starts against the Diamondbacks and Braves. The veteran hurler has only faced the Giants twice in his career, with the last time coming in June 2008 when he allowed three runs in six innings of a 9-6 Mets win.

With Lincecum on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 5-0 versus winning clubs and 6-1 on Wednesday, but four of Lincecum’s five starts against the Phillies have topped the total. As a team, the Giants have stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as favorites and seven of 10 on Thursday. Philadelphia is on several “under” runs as well, including 6-1 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 20-7 against right-handers and 20-8 in the third game of a series.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

Cappers Access

NC St
Oregon

 

Brett Mavericks

big 10 star lock south carolina

 

igz1 sports

Thursday Card
7-2 Last 9 NFL

NFL
4* Washington +5 (-115)
4* Under 34 (-110) Pittsburgh vs Carolina
4* Miami +3.5 (-110)
3* Tennessee -3.5 (-110)
3* Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110)
3* Over 38 (-110) Philadelphia vs NY Jets

 

Hondo

September 3, 2009

About nine more days like that and Hondo will be back in the black. Mr. Aitch somehow came up with a couple of winners last night, scoring with the Gi ants and Yankees to lower his debt to 920 darks.

Today, the darts landed on Robertson, Lincecum and Hanson -- 10 units apiece on the Tigers, Giants and Braves.

 

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR THURSDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Mets (Misch)

COLORADO (MARQUIS) -245 (1)


Yankees (Gaudin)

TORONTO (ROMERO) +115 (2)


SAN FRANCISCO (LINCECUM) -125 (3)

Philadelphia (Martinez)


Run Totals

San Francisco / Philadelphia UNDER 8

Yankees / Toronto OVER 9 ½

Arizona / Angels OVER 9

Seattle / Oakland OVER 9 9/3/2009


NCAAF FREE PICKS FOR WEEK 1

Thursday

TROY -6 ½ (1)
Bowling Green

 

Arthur Ralph Sports
317 - 214 run 60 % on free selections

Troy College FB -7

 

MR EAST

MLB THURSDAY 5 UNIT BOMB

#961 CLEVELAND INDIANS @ #962 DETROIT TIGERS 1:05PM EDT

PLAY ON #961 CLEVELAND INDIANS @ DETROIT TIGERS OVER 9.5 -110 FOR 5 UNITS

The Cleveland Indians have been a terror against lefthand pitching, and the Tigers Nate Robertson is ripe to be had. The Indians are scoring 5.8 runs a game against lefthanders, while their starting pitcher, Fausto Carmona is struggling in a big way himself, entering here with an ERA of 6.20 on the season. To top that off, Cleveland is 36-14 to the over as a road dog, that is 72% to the over. They are also 10-1 to the over when Carmona starts with a total of 9-10.5, and 23-7 in his last 30 starts with the same posted total range, and 30 of his last 42 starts overall have resulted in games going over the total. Nate Robertson has pitched to the over to an 11-1 mark in his last 12 starts vs the AL Central. This one goes over the total.

 

Bryan Leonard's NCAA Opening Night Gridiron Gold

135/136 North Texas at Ball State

A popular theory in handicapping the first week of the college football season is to back teams with a significant edge in returning starters. Our old friend Mike Lee who has since passed was the originator of this theory. Despite it's common thought process in these days the theory continues to make sense and money, especially if you jump on it early. While this game opened higher it's still a value at plus 17 or more as we expect this line to close in the 15 range.

North Texas returns 16 starters from a football team that won just once a season ago. But now coach Todd Dodge is in his key third year in the program and his son who also happens to be the signal caller has a firm grasp on it's intricacies. Riley Dodge grew up under his dad's tutelage as his father was a coaching legend in the high school ranks. Leading rusher Cam Montgomery from a season ago really came on at the end of the year to give this team a terrific run/pass combination.

Ball State had a breakout season a year ago under coach Brady Hoke but the losses are huge. Three year starting quarterback Nate Davis was drafted, four starting offensive linemen have departed as well as the top four receivers including Darius Hill who was outstanding. This team brings back just 11 starters and a completely new coaching staff as Hoke took advantage of the career year to go to San Diego State. His parallel move tells us all we need to know about this Cardinal program. Hoke knew the writing was on the wall as this Ball State team is in for a terrible fall this season. This now becomes a young team without any proven leaders. Not only must they win this game but they must do so by close to a three touchdown margin. The differences from the MAC and the Sun Belt are not nearly that large as we take advantage of new coach Stan Parrish and his young overrated squad in the season opener.

PLAY NORTH TEXAS

 

Joe wiz free plays

ny giants
gb/tenn under
raiders/sea under

 

Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd

College Football Premium Picks
NCAA-F | Sep 03 '09 (7:00p)
South Carolina vs NC State NC State
-5-109 at 5dimes
3* 2009 NCAAF Season Opener (ESPN) on N.C. State -5
This one has revenge written all over it for the Wolfpack after getting thumped 34-0 at South Carolina last season. I expect 1st-Team All-ACC QB Russell Wilson to be the difference maker. The Pack return plenty of fire power with wide receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams as well. This core group of guys gives NC State the edge against an S.C. team that lost a lot on both sides of the football. SC's defense carried the team last season and I don't expect it to be as good. While QB Stephen Garcia should be better, he has less to work with. Last season we saw the offense put up the worst numbers in the Spurrier era; 20.9 points per game, 94.1 rushing yards per game, 27 interceptions, and it could be worse this season. The Wolfpack are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Lay the points.

-= TOP PLAY =-
NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (12:00p)
Akron vs Penn State Penn State
-26-108 at 5dimes
5* NCAAF Non-Conference GOTY on Penn State -26
The Nittany Lions dominated their non-conference schedule last season and I fully expect that to be the case again. They started off the year with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina and they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate that they are every bit as good as last year's team. Quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster lead the offense, but I expect Penn State's defense to be the key here. The Nittany Lions ranked 8th in the nation last year in both total and scoring defense and I expect them to be even better this season. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MAC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Lay the points.

NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (12:00p)
Toledo vs Purdue Toledo
+10½-110 at 5dimes
4* Major Week 1 Underdog Shocker on Toledo +10.5
Toledo beat a Michigan team last season that was better than the Purdue team they will face Saturday. Plus, this Toledo team, which returns 16 starters is expected to be greatly improved as well. The Boilermakers will be a bottom of the barrel type team in the Big Ten this season. No Curtis Painter and no Kory Sheets equals no offense. The Boilermakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. the MAC and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take the points.


NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (4:00p)
Rice vs UAB UAB
-5-110 at bodog
4* Major Conference USA Game of the Month on UAB -5
UAB returns all 11 offensive starters, and I expect this unit, led by QB Joe Webb to torch a Rice defense which allowed 33.0 ppg last season. The Owls won 10 games last year but lost all of their offense and won't be able to answer the call. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September while the Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. The Blazers are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. UAB finished the season with 3 wins in its last 5 games, and nearly beat Conference USA champ East Carolina. Look for UAB to be jacked up to start the year at home and in conference play.

NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (7:00p)
Ul Monroe vs Texas Texas
-40½-102 at 5dimes
3* SMASH on Texas -40.5
IL Monroe is one of the worst football teams in the country. The Longhorns opened up last football season with a 42-point win over a much better FAU squad. They then posted 42-point wins in their next two home non-conference games. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the S-Belt. Plus, UL Monroe is 7-21 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992. Texas will win by as much as they want to and that should be good enough for a cover here.


[ back to top ]

NFL Football Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
NFL | Sep 03 '09 (8:00p)
Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans
-3-110 at bodog
5* NFLX Blowout of the Year on Titans -3
Green Bay (3-0) has nothing left to prove this preseason and because of that Aaron Rodgers is only expected to play one series. Backup QB Matt Flynn is not 100% and that means Brian Brohm, who has looked horrible, should see most of the snaps. The Titans are coming of back-to-back losses on the road and I expect them to bounce back at home here to build some momentum for the regular season. Tennessee has the superior QB depth with Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey. Green Bay's defense gave up 37 points on the road last week and cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson may not even make the trip, and certainly won't play much, if at all, if they do. Lay the points.

 

Insider Sports Report

NCAAF
4* Oregon/Boise St. UNDER 64
4* N. Texas +17 over Ball St.

NFL
3* Arizona Cardinals-3.5 over Denver Broncos

MLB
3* Atlanta Braves -125 over Florida Marlins

 

Dr Bob Free Analysis

South Carolina at No Carolina St.
Thursday, Sep-03 04:00 PM
Favorite: No Carolina St. -5.0
Total: 47.0
South Carolina has been nothing special in 4 seasons under legendary coach Steve Spurrier, losing either 5 or 6 games each season while rating between 2 to 10 points better than an average team. This year's team falls into that range as well. The offense was horrible last season, averaging just 4.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the quarterbacks combined for 27 interceptions, but that unit should be about average this season with sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia having more experience and with high regarded freshman back Jarvis Giles ready to uplift the ground assault. Garcia completed only 53% of his passes last season and averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but Garcia is likely to be more accurate while throwing fewer interceptions this year. The receiving corps is still a question mark, but I'll call for average passing results for the Gamecocks this season while the rushing attack continues to be sub-par even with Giles. South Carolina was 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average last season and I'll call for a -0.4 yprp rating until I see what Giles can do). It's certainly possible that Garcia can be a better than average quarterback (last year was the first year under Spurrier that the pass attack was worse than 0.3 yppp better than average, but I'll take a wait and see approach.

The Gamecocks' defense carried the team last season with a dominating performance, allowing just 4.8 yppl against a schedule that would have averaged 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. There are only 6 returning starters on the defense this year (5 with DT Ajiboye suspended for a couple of games), compared to 9 last season, but LB Eric Norwood is an All-American candidate (1st team SEC the last 2 years) and the safeties are good enough to make up for the young pair of cornerbacks. South Carolina didn't really lose any impact players from last year's defense and I think they'll be close to as good this season (especially later in the season).

NC State was a pretty good team last season when DT Alan-Michael Cash and LB Nate Irving were both in the lineup on defense and when freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was behind center and they should be solid this year even without Irving, who is out for the season after a car accident left him with a broken leg. The defense was good with Irving, but will probably be mediocre at best without him (even with Cash back) now that projected starters CB Ellis and FS Simmons have left team. NC State actually was 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season in 2008, so even a mediocre performance will be an upgrade.

The Wolfpack will be a better than average team because of quarterback Wilson, who enters this season with a streak of 249 passes without an interception. Wilson is likely to throw more than the 1 pick he threw all of last season, but he's also likely to improve upon his solid yards per pass play numbers (6.0 yppp last year against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB). Wilson is also an adept runner who logged 548 yards at 91 rushing plays last season (6.0 yprp) and he'll help out a mediocre stable of running backs (4.4 ypr last year) to produce a better than average ground attack.

This game pits NC State's better than average offense against the Gamecocks' stingy defense while mediocrity meets mediocrity when South Carolina has the ball. My ratings favor NC State by 3 1/2 points with a total of 47 1/2 points and I can see this game going either way.

 

Dr. K (Kambour) CFB Projections

INPUT: PREDICTED
South Carolina (+3.5) (+155) 24
NC State (U 46) 23

Utah St (O 52.5) 14
Utah (-20.5) (-2500) 41

Oregon (O 63.5) (+170) 30
Boise St (-5) 35

Troy St (-6.5) 31
Bowling Green (U 56.5) (+215) 24

North Texas (O 59) 17
Ball St (-17) (-1250) 47

 

WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Washington

The Storm look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Eastern Conference. Seattle is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

Game 601-602: Seattle at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 114.076; Washington 110.518
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 140 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2); Under

 

ALATEX NFLX

9/3/09 NFL Philadelphia +3

9/3/09 NFL Cleveland +3

9/3/09 NFL 20* Superplay: Kansas City -1

 

Wunderdog

Game: Detroit at Buffalo (Thursday 9/03 6:30 PM Eastern)

Pick: Detroit +3.5 (-120)

The Lions did not win a game last year in the regular season. But, they did run the table in the preseason. They have already won two games this preseason and it's becoming evident that this team is about winning in the NFLX. The Lions may have an advantage in this game thanks to the continuing QB battle between rookie Matthew Stafford and veteran Dante Culpepper. In a game that usually sees starters rested, each of these top two QBs will likely see more time than the typical game four. The Bills coach Dick Juaron has never had a winning preseason as coach of the Bills and he will likely just run the clock and let the game pass. Juaron is just 13-22 in his 35 preseason coached games and that number is even worse in game four as he is just 2-6. I look for the Lions to at the very least cover this one, if not come away with the outright win.

 

MLB Computer Picks

St. Louis Cardinals -200
Tampa Bay Rays -125
New York Yankees -135

NFL Picks

Detroit Lions +3
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Atlanta Falcons -2½
Cincinnati Bengals -3½
New England Patriots +3
Washington Redskins +6
Chicago Bears -2½
Green Bay Packers +3½
St. Louis Rams +1
New Orleans Saints -3
Carolina Panthers -3
Denver Broncos +3½
Seattle Seahawks -3

 

Plays of the day
college football

Troy
Utah
BOISE STATE

 

Tony Bruno Wins

Nc State 20x

 

Valentino's play IS today it is on the utah/utah St game.....Was hoping someone could pick it up.


Burns Main Event

Under Oregon/Boise St

 

Lance's Lock

Overall record: 837-724-31

Current streak: 2 wins

Todays play: Over 46' NC State/South Carolina

 

Randall the Handle

Chicago (A.L) +1.62 over CHICAGO

The South Side came out with a miracle win yesterday after they rallied for four runs after two outs and none on in the ninth inning. That was a huge momentum win and a win like that could definitely carry over here. Then we have the AL vs NL angle and it’s not like they’re playing the Phillies or Rockies. No, they’re playing a team that is a huge risk at this big price. The Cubbies just don’t win enough and they lose to so many bad pitchers that it would be extremely foolish to put any faith in them here. Yeah, they have an edge on the hill but that’s where any edge they have ends. Besides, Carlos Torres hasn’t looked bad at all in two starts. He walks too many but he can also strike out hitters and in those two starts against Cleveland and Tampa Bay his BAA was just .257. No doubt he has the ability, he just has to throw strikes and he and the South Side have a great chance to win. Note the 2:20 PM start time. Play: Chicago +1.62 (Risking 2 units).


Seattle +1.19 over OAKLAND

The M’s are still eight games out of a wild card spot but they just beat the Angels twice in a row and their record against the A’s is a good one. In fact, the Mariners have won four straight in this series and overall this season they’ve beaten Oakland nine times in 12 games. Furthermore, Ichiro is back in the line-up and all he’s done is hit .448 against the A’s this year. Meanwhile, the A’s seldom win two in a row and after beating KC last night they’ll find the going much tougher against a team they have trouble against. Brett (Suitcase) Tomko has put up some nice numbers since coming over from the Yanks but you know that’s not going to last. Tomko has played for 11 teams in 12 years and it would appear that each team couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. The Mariners hitters have seen plenty of him and if past performance means anything he could be in for a rough outing. The M’s players have had a combined 120 AB’s against Tomko and they’re a solid 40-121 against him for a .331 batting average. In any case, the M’s are 10½ games better than the A’s, they’ve owned them this season and as a pooch, they sure offer up some decent value. Play: Seattle +1.19 (Risking 2 units).


San Francisco -½ +1.02 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)

Based solely on the starters here, the Giants have a big edge in the first half of the game with Cy Young candidate, Tim Lincecum going up against Pedro Martinez. The Phillies have won all four of Pedro’s starts but two of those starts were rain-shortened, (five innings combined) thus, he really hasn’t been exposed yet. He faced the D-Backs once and in another outing the Mets got to him for four runs in six frames. Pedro is hittable and he’s pitched just 16 innings in four starts after being off for more then a year. This park certainly can’t help his cause. Meanwhile, Lincecum is the straight goods. He’s allowed two runs in 22 innings in his last three starts against the Phillies and his 2.33 ERA is the league’s second best mark. He’s lost just four times this season and the chances of the Giants taking a lead into the sixth are great. Play: San Francisco -½ +1.02 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).

 

Gina

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 2:15 p.m. est.

Milwaukee Brewers (64-68) at St. Louis Cardinals (79-55)
(L) Manny Parra (9-10) vs. (R) John Smoltz (1-0)

Milwaukee's Manny Parra is 1-2 with a 8.22 ERA in his last three starts. The lefty has allowed at least six runs in three of his last four starts. Parra best start of the season was against the Cardinals on July 9. He allowed three hits with seven strikeouts in seven shutout innings of a 5-1 loss.

St. Louis' John Smoltz is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in five career starts versus Milwaukee, but hasn't face the Brewers since 2007.

Go with the hot Cardinals to grab a sweep over the Brewers tonight at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has won 11 of their last 12 home games, 21-5 in their last 26. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has dropped seven of their last 10 road games and 12 of Parra's last 17 starts on the road.

St. Louis Cardinals -175

 

Free Silver Key Pick for Thursday NCAA Football

Utah State +21.5 Over UTAH (9 et)

 

MLB DUNKEL

Cleveland at Detroit
The Tigers look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Detroit is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.817; St. Louis (Smoltz) 16.281
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Over

Game 953-954: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Misch) 14.019; Colorado (Marquis) 15.302
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-245); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-245); Under

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.059; Philadelphia (Martinez) 15.860
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+130); Over

Game 957-958: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.295; Florida (Nolasco) 14.247
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over

Game 959-960: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 16.618; LA Dodgers (Garland) 15.756
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+190); Under


Game 961-962: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 14.783; Detroit (Robertson) 15.223
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over

Game 963-964: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buccholz) 14.769; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.661
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over

Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Gaudin) 15.846; Toronto (Romero) 16.201
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under

Game 967-968: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 14.383; Oakland (Tomko) 16.293
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Over


Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Torres) 16.034; Cubs (Dempster) 14.876
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+165); N/A

 

Burns

Dolphins Under
Oregon Under
Panthers *GOY*
Raiders
Utah St

 

Johnny Guild

Thursday, September 3rd, 7:30 PM EST.

North Texas Mean Green (0-0) at Ball State Cardinals (0-0)
Ball State Stadium, Muncie, Indiana
Ball State sound offense of 2008 is departed, off to the NFL, including quarterback Nate Davis, but North Texas defense hasn’t changed. The Mean Green defense could be ranked last in the nation for the third year straight. Take the Cardinals

Ball State Cardinals - 16


10:15 PM EST. (16) Oregon (0-0) at (14) Boise State (0-0)

Boise State Broncos -3

 

Doc's Sports

3-Unit Play Take # 965 New York Yankees -125 over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05p.m.)

 

ALATEX MLB PICK for TODAY

MLB Superplay: St. Louis Under 9 -120

 

CAROLINA SPORTS
NFLX Picks
3* Detroit +3
3* NY Giants -3
3* Cinci -3.5

CFB Picks:
3* Troy -7
Opinion: Boise State -3

 

Mr. A's

Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 1:05 PM EST.
Cleveland Indians (58-74) at Detroit Tigers (71-61)
(R) Fausto Carmona (3-9) vs. (L) Nate Robertson (1-1)
Oddsmakers: Detroit as a -140 home favorite with the total listed at 9½ 'over'.

Detroit Tigers -140


Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 10:05 PM EST.
Seattle Mariners (70-64) at Oakland Athletics (59-74)
(R) Ian Snell (3-1) vs. (R) Brett Tomko (3-2)
Oddsmakers: Oakland as a -130 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.

Seattle Mariners +110


Thursday, September 3rd, 2009 9:00 p.m. est.
Utah State (0-0) at (19) Utah Utes (0-0)

Utah Utes -21

Utah has won the last seven meetings versus Utah State, going 5-2 against the spread.

 

sportsbetsnow - 57% L30D

NCAAF

Boise St -3 1 unit
North Texas +16.5 1 unit

 

charlie

college football. oregon @ boise st under 64', north texas @ ball st over 58 & boise st-3. (500* triple play).
college football. nc st-5 (30*)
college football. utah @ utah st over 52 (20*)
college football. troy-7 (20*)
college football. ball st-16' (10*)
college football. utah-20' (10*) free play

 

Tony Salinas Baseball
Thursday, September 03, 2009

26*
Ny Yankees {C.Gaudin} (-125) over Bluejays {R.Romero}
7:07 PM -- Rogers Centre
Mostly clear. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

25*
Mariners {I.Snell} (+125) over Athletics {B.Tomko}
10:05 PM -- Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

* All times Eastern

 

ATS Lock Club

4 Utah St
3 Boise St
3 Bears

 

GOODFELLA underdog GOW

Boston Red Sox