Service Plays For Week 1 NFL

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Sep 12, 2009.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Teddy Covers

    NFL Atlanta -4 (454)
    NFL Tampa Bay +6 (470)
    NFL Arizona -6 (472)
    NFL 20* Big Ticket: Washington +6.5 (473
     
  2. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Pointwise Phone Service

    No 4*

    3* New England, Ny Giants, Minnesota, Cincy

    2*g. Bay, Baltimore
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Norm Hitzges

    NFL

    Triple Play--Dallas -6 vs Tampa
    Double Play--San Francisco +6 vs Arizona
    Double Play--NY Giants -6.5 vs Washington
    Jacksonville +7 vs Indianapolis
    Cincinnati -4 vs Denver
    Houston -8.5 vs NY Jets
    St. Louis +8.5 vs Seattle
    Green Bay -3.5 vs Chicago
    New England -10.5 vs Buffalo
    Green Bay/Chicago Over 46
    Dallas/Tampa Under 39
    Washington/NY Giants Under 37
    Cincinnati/Denver Under 42.5
     
  4. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Dr. Bob

    Just 1 NFL Best Bet for week 1, which is Cincinnati (-4) for 2-Stars at -4 or less. The rest of the NFL analysis is on the web-site in the free analysis section.

    2 Star Selection
    **CINCINNATI (-4.0) 27 Denver 16
    10:00 AM Pacific, 13-Sep-09
    Denver had more than their share of off season troubles and they appear to be worse off for it. The firing of head coach Mike Shanahan was a questionable decision seeing as Shanahan led a team with a horrible defense to an 8-8 record and new coach Josh McDaniels had issues with star quarterback Jay Cutler and leading receiver Brandon Marshall. Cutler was traded to Chicago for lesser quarterback Kyle Orton while Brandon Marshall has been a malcontent during the preseason and was just cleared to play. Marshall actually isn't important, as he averaged a sub-par 7.0 yards per pass thrown to him last season while the rest of the wide receivers averaged 7.2 ypa. Orton is certainly a downgrade at quarterback and Denver probably won't run as well as Shanahan's zone blocking offenses did during his tenure. I rate the Broncos at 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively, which is a huge drop from last season's high rating (+0.8 yppl). The Broncos defense, however, should be better after rating at 0.9 yppl worse than average in 2008. Top defensive player CB Champ Bailey was injured for much of last season and should bounce back while the addition of CB Andre Goodman, who allowed just 6.4 yards per pass in Miami last season, will also lead to a better pass defense. Denver also signed an over the hill Brian Dawkins, who made it to the Pro Bowl last season on reputation rather than performance, which was just average (although still an upgrade). I still think Denver will be worse than average in pass defense and the run defense can't be any worse than it was last year (5.2 ypr allowed) and should be better based on regression to the mean (even though no obvious upgrade's were made). I rate Denver's defense at just 0.3 yppl worse than average this season, which is a huge improvement.

    The Bengals are a team on the rise this season with star quarterback Carson Palmer back behind center. Palmer looked good in limited preseason action and top target Chad Ochocinco is motivated this season after taking last year off (he played, but not really). Deep play receiver Chris Henry is also back in good graces and Palmer should post better than average numbers. The rushing attack was bad last year and should still be a problem, but Cincy looks like an average offensive team overall and could be better if Palmer regains his pro bowl form. Either way the offense is much better than last year. Cincinnati is also going to be improved on defense as long as they stay healthy. The Bengals were hurt by injuries to LB Keith Rivers and numerous injuries in the secondary but still allowed just 5.2 yppl and were 0.2 yppl better than average. The run defense was especially good (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team) and it should be better this season with emerging star DT Pat Sims in the lineup the entire season. Sims was added to the roster in week 6 and the Bengals became a brink wall against the run when he entered the starting lineup in week 11. From week 6 on Cincy allowed just 3.7 ypr adn they gave up just 3.5 ypr from week 11 on. The pass defense, meanwhile, should be solid with everyone healthy, as the young secondary continues to mature.

    My ratings favor Cincinnati by 9 1/2 points in this game if all of my assumptions are correct and Denver applies to a negative 15-37 ATS game 1 indicator. I'd still favor Cincy by 7 points even if Denver is average defensively, so there is certainly value on the underrated Bengals here. I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 (-1.15 odds or less) or better.
     
  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Sixth Sense

    BEST BETS

    3% CAROLINA +2.5 May see better numbers here by waiting

    3% CINCINNATI -4

    3% TAMPA BAY +6 May see better numbers here by waiting

    3% NY GIANTS –6.5

    3% GREEN BAY –3.5



    League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

    Average Points Scored 22.0
    Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
    Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
    Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3

    Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.


    ATLANTA –4 Miami 43.5
    ATLANTA 24 MIAMI 21

    BALTIMORE –13 Kansas City 36
    BALTIMORE 31 KANSAS CITY 13

    Philadelphia –2.5 CAROLINA 43.5
    CAROLINA 30 PHILADELPHIA 23

    CINCINNATI –4 Denver 42.5
    CINCINNATI 27 DENVER 17

    Minnesota –3.5 CLEVELAND 40
    MINNESOTA 24 CLEVELAND 14

    HOUSTON –4.5 NY Jets 44
    HOUSTON 24 NY JETS 21

    INDIANAPOLIS –7 Jacksonville 44.5
    INDIANAPOLIS 24 JACKSONVILLE 17

    NEW ORLEANS –13 Detroit 49
    NEW ORLEANS 37 DETROIT 21

    Dallas –6 TAMPA BAY 39
    TAMPA BAY 23 DALLAS 21

    ARIZONA –6 San Francisco 46
    ARIZONA 27 SAN FRANCISCO 26

    NY GIANTS –6.5 Washington 37
    NY GIANTS 27 WASHINGTON 10

    SEATTLE -8.5 St. Louis 40.5
    SEATTLE 27 ST LOUIS 16

    GREEN BAY –3.5 Chicago 46.5
    GREEN BAY 33 CHICAGO 23

    NEW ENGLAND –10.5 Buffalo 47.5
    NEW ENGLAND 27 BUFFALO 16

    San Diego –9.5 OAKLAND 43
    SAN DIEGO 24 OAKLAND 13
     
  6. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Colin Cowherd

    Miami (+4.5)
    N.Y. Jets (+4.5)
    Dallas(-5.5)
    Green Bay(-3.5)
     
  7. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

    SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don't handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting statistics from seven major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time line movement to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. We learn which way every game is being bet. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights' unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

    Atlanta Falcons -4 over Miami Dolphins

    The Atlanta Falcons is an interesting play highlighted by certain NFL sports marketplace indicators. When the lines for the first week of the season went up, much of the early action was coming in on the Dolphins. The heavy betting on Miami had SportsInsights' analysts keying in on Atlanta as a potential "contrarian" bet. However, during the past few days, "sharp money" started landing on Atlanta. The "betting percentages" have evened out, but the line has started to tick up to Atlanta -4.5 -- a sure indication of "big money" or "smart money" taking Atlanta. Betonline.com with a record of 8-2, + 5.4 units triggered a Smart Money Play on Atlanta -4.

    Our readers know that we love to follow the "smart money." We also like to "bet against the public." This game is unique in that both of these indicators pointed to the Falcons at different times during the week. Both Atlanta and Miami had strong seasons last year. Although Miami surprised everyone last year, they had a relatively easy schedule due to their horrendous season the year before. Look for the Dolphins to come back to earth a bit this season. If you shop the line around you'll find a couple of solid sportsbooks offering Atlanta -3.5 which gets you off the key number 4. We getting down at Atlanta -3.5 -110 at 5Dimes.

    Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (Bet at 5Dimes -3.5 -110)

    Tampa Bay Bucs +6 over Dallas Cowboys

    This is currently one of Sunday's most heavily-bet games, with over 80% of the bets taking the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is always a "public" team and SportsInsights' "betting percentages" highlight the heavy one-sided action. We like the value in "betting against the public" and taking the Tampa Bay Bucs, a very capable home underdog.

    The line opened at Dallas -3 but the heavy action on "America's Team" has moved the point spread a huge 3 points. This huge line move through several "key football numbers" gives us some nice value. Take Tampa Bay as a "live home dog" and shop around for the best line you can get. You can currently get Tampa Bay +6 at nice vig -- but with the continued pounding of bets down on Dallas, the line could tick up to +6.5 or better.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +6 -105)

    Washington Redskins +6.5 over New York Giants

    The Giants are one of the favorites to get to the Superbowl. On the other hand, the Redskins are Superbowl long-shots who finished in the basement of the NFC East. Readers of our NFL MarketWatch series of newsletters know that we love to find "sports investing value" by taking teams that look overmatched. With about 70% of the bets coming down on the Giants, we will "bet against the Public" and take the Washington Redskins.

    When seeking "contrarian value" -- we like taking underdogs in rivalries -- and particularly divisional rivalries in the NFL. The Washington Redskins should be particularly fired up for this divisional match-up on opening day. As we near game-time, the line may tick up to Washington +7. For now, we'll take the widely available +6.5.

    Washington Redskins +6.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction +6.5-105)

    So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

    Games to Watch (0-0-0)

    Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -110
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105
    Washington Redskins +6.5 -105
     
  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Maddux

    #462 - NFL - 3 units on Cleveland +4 (SUN)
    #464 - NFL - 3 units on Houston -4.5 (SUN)
     
  9. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Robert Ferringo

    NFL Week 1 Selection

    7-Unit Play. Take #478 Green Bay (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)

    Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Power Sweep

    4* Dallas 23-9
    3* Cinn. 33-17
    2* Detroit (+) 17-27
    2* Minn. 23-9

    3* KC Under 37
    3* Eagles Under 44
    3* Cowboys Under 40
    2* Denver Over 43
    2* Jets Over 43

    Power Rating Play Cinn.
    System Play 49er's
     
  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Pointwise Newsletter

    NFL Key Releases...
    3--Cincinnati (-4') over Denver 30-20
    3--New England (-11) over Buffalo 31-13
    4--Pittsburgh (-6) over Tennessee (THURSDAY) 20-10
    4--Seattle (-8') over St. Louis 30-16
    5--Carolina (+1) over Philadelphia 24-20
     
  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Marc Lawrence's Playbook

    NFL...
    5* NY Giants over Washington by 17
    4* San Francisco (+) over Arizona by 6
    3* Denver (+) over Cincinnati by 7

    NFL Totals...
    5* Redskins/Giants UNDER
    4* Vikings/Browns UNDER
    3* Dolphins/Falcons UNDER
     
  13. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Mti / killer sports
    MTi’s Newsletter Side Play 4-Star Denver +3’ over CINCINNATI


    Cincinnati won three in a row to end last season and that is inflating this line significantly. Also inflating the line here is the fact that the Broncos are projected to win only 6.5 games this season. Both of these reasons are faulty. Last season the Bengals beat the Redskins, Browns and Chiefs over their last three games to finish at 4-11-1 on the season. Washington had just dropped 4-of-5 and were off a tough road game vs the Ravens the previous week. The Browns had lost four straight and were off a Monday Night game vs the Eagles and they had a head coach that was on his way out. The Chiefs had lost three straight and were 1-10 their last 11 when they faced the Bengals in Cincinnati on the final week of the season. Clearly, Cincinnati’s three-game win streak is very suspect. To use a horse racing analogy, they “passed tiring horses.”Now let’s turn our attention to the Broncos low win total for this season.The Denver Broncos finished the 2008 season at 8-8Unfortnately for them this was good enough for second place in their division, which means that they drew the second place teams from the AFC East and AFC South as Wild Card opponents. Again, unfortunately for them, the Colts and Patriots finished in second place in their divisions in 2008, matching them up with the Broncos in 2009 and giving the Broncos a brutal schedule this season.The linesmakers have noticed, as their futures line is 6.5 wins for the season. If the Broncos don’t win seven games this season, it will be the first time since the turn of the century that they have done so. If their tough schedule means anything in THIS game, it will have them motivated for their first two games of the season, as they get the Bengals and Browns.We see very little reason for optimism for the Bengals this season. They have a head coach who has not had a winning season in three years, they lost their best receiver to free agency (apologies to Ocho-cinco). They have a center who will be making his first NFL start and have a weak running back squad.The only reason for any hope would be the return of Carson Palmer. This is a LOT of responsibility to put on a QB –especially one who is returning from injury.In 2008, Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 69 in the four games in which he appeared.The Bengals lost all four, although the competi-tion was pretty tough. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who filled in for Palmer in 2008, had a QB rating of 70 and was 4-3-1 over the last eight games of the season. The Bengals then let him go to the Bills as a free agent in the off-season. Chad Ochocinco had a terrible season in 2008. After 1369 and 1440 receiving yards 2006 and 2007 respectively, he dropped precipitously to 540 in 2008.The hype for the Bengals this season has no substance. The de-fensive coaches are high on pick-ups DB Roy Williams from Dallas and DTTank Johnson from the Bears. However, both of these players were released by their teams. Dallas releasedWilliams because he can’t cover anyone and the Bears released Johnson because of his off-field troubles. This hype is merely to sell tickets – and they need to sell tickets because their home opener isn’t sold out as of September 1st. Their fans aren’t buying the hype and neither a serious handicapper.The Shanahan era is over in Denver and young Josh McDaniels take the reins. He has been groomed for a head coaching position in the NFL his entire life. He is not under a lot of pressure to win this game, as he is a significant road dog. We expect his team will play tough and hard for him. The Broncos appeared to have been ready for a change at the head coach position, as Shanahan was burned out last season, and it started to show in 2007.This line has steamrolled out of control. The pundits are saying that the Broncos are in for a terrible season and some are even calling the Bengals a ”dark horse.” Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. Grab this 3’ and check out the price on the moneyline.

    MTi’s FORECAST: Denver 17 CINCINNATI 16


    MTi’s Newsletter Totals Play

    3-Star Washington at NY Giants UNDER 37’ – The Redskins are 0-6OUintheirlastsixseasonopeners,stayingunderbyanave rage of 11.0 ppg. The average final score in these six games has been 13.3 to 13.0 ppg. We see no reason for this to change here.TheRedskinsare0-11-2OUasasingle-digitroaddogvsadivisional opponent when they face a non-divisional opponent next week. Last season, Washington was 0-5 OU in this situation, staying under by a whopping 15.2 ppg.More specifically, these two are 0-9 OU since 2000 in New York. Over the past four seasons, the Redskins have scored a total of six points in the second half vs the Giants in New York. It is also worth mentioning that the Redskins are 0-9 OU (-9.9 ppg) on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing at home.The re-signing of DeAngelo Hall and the big free-agent signing of Albert Haynesworth has demonstrated the Redskins’ commitment to defense this season. Take these two

    UNDER.MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 17 Washington 13
     
  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    SportsBook Breakers

    SportsBook Breakers’ Top Total

    3-Star Detroit and NEW ORLEANS Under 48.5 -

    Simply put, totals should just not be this high during week one. Generally speaking, we know less about teams from year to year than we think we know. This is particularly true when dealing with offenses and defenses expected to be amongst the best and worst of the league. For instance, the Saints finished first in the NFL for total offense in 2008. Over the last three seasons, the team that finished first in offense last season finished an average of 10th the next year. This is part of the reason why the last four total offensive leaders have all gone under in week one of the next season.Similarly, the Lions were the league’s worst defense in ‘08. Teams that have finished last in total defense the last three seasons averaged 21st in that category the next year. Further proof that the total should not be so high can be found in this trend; The league is 0-15 OU since 2001 in non-divisional games on opening weekend if the total is over 45 and the game is not on the first Thursday. ( See pg. 10 for further details)The Saints’ offense should certainly be high powered once again, but will likely need time to gel with the return of RB Reggie Bush and WR Marques Colston to full strength. The Saints traditionally play conservative in game one, going under in eight of their last 10 openers.ScoringfortheLionswilllikelybemuchmorediff icult.Withrookie quarterback Matthew Stafford, it is likely that the Lions will use a very conservative playbook for the first week. Without taking chances that cause touchdown scoring turnovers, and with Kevin Smith leading an improved running game, Detroit should be able to hold the ball long enough to keep New Orleans score down.

    SportsBook Breakers Prediction: NEW ORLEANS 24, Detroit 14
     
  15. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Doc sports

    4 Unit Play. #113 Take San Francisco +6 ½ over Arizona (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top Underdog Play. Arizona 27, San Francisco 24.

    5 Unit Play. #120 Take Green Bay -3 ½ over Chicago (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) Game of the Week. Green Bay 31, Chicago 13.

    4 Unit Play. #123 Take San Diego -9 ½ over Oakland (Monday 10:15 pm ESPN) Top Monday Night Play.
     
  16. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Strike Point Sports

    Week One NFL plays

    5-Unit Game of the Week. #460 Take Cincinnati -4 over Denver (9/13 Sunday, 1 p.m. EST)

    3-Unit Play. #454 Take Atlanta -4 over Miami (9/13 Sunday, 1 p.m. EST)

    3-Unit Play. #474 Take New York Giants -6.5 over Washington (9/13 Sunday, 1 p.m. EST)
     
  17. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Wizzard's Picks
    NFL: Sunday 9/13/09

    50* Houston Texans - 4.5
    30* NY Giants - 6.5
     
  18. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    NFL DUNKEL

    Week 1

    SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

    Game 453-454: Miami at Atlanta
    Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.346; Atlanta 134.249
    Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 45
    Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 43
    Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over

    Game 455-456: Kansas City at Baltimore
    Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.024; Baltimore 134.133
    Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 35
    Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 37 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9); Under

    Game 457-458: Philadelphia at Carolina
    Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 141.749; Carolina 144.653
    Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 46
    Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-1); Over

    Game 459-460: Denver at Cincinnati
    Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.598; Cincinnati 124.924
    Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 51
    Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over

    Game 461-462: Minnesota at Cleveland
    Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.080; Cleveland 128.895
    Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 36 1/2
    Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 39 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under

    Game 463-464: NY Jets at Houston
    Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.730; Houston 138.240
    Dunkel Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 41
    Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 43
    Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

    Game 465-466: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
    Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.039; Indianapolis 139.395
    Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 48
    Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45
    Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

    Game 467-468: Detroit at New Orleans
    Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.925; New Orleans 133.469
    Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
    Vegas Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+12 1/2); Under

    Game 469-470: Dallas at Tampa Bay
    Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.674; Tampa Bay 128.129
    Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8 1/2; 38
    Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under

    Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona
    Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.708; Arizona 139.069
    Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 52
    Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 47
    Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Over

    Game 473-474: Washington at NY Giants
    Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.475; NY Giants 140.912
    Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
    Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 38
    Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6); Over

    Game 475-476: St. Louis at Seattle
    Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.293; Seattle 130.343
    Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42 1/2
    Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 43
    Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Under

    Game 477-478: Chicago at Green Bay
    Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.555; Green Bay 131.413
    Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 41
    Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under
     
  19. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Scott Ferrall

    NFL FREE PICKS FOR SUNDAY
    PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


    Philadelphia

    CAROLINA +1 (1)


    JETS +4 ½ (2)

    Houston


    Dallas

    TAMPA BAY +6 (3)
     
  20. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
    TMB OG

    Wunderdog

    Game: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (Sunday 9/13 1:00 PM Eastern)
    Pick: Jacksonville +7 (-110)


    The 2009-10 NFL season will open without Tony Dungy at the helm of a team for the first time in over a decade. Dungy established himself as one of the all-time greats, winning at Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, including a Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Jim Caldwell takes over for the Colts as they face the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jags could never get anything going a year ago as nothing seemed to go right for this team. They went from 11 wins in 2007 to five in 2008 thanks primarily to an injury-riddled offensive line that forced them away from their successful play action passing attack. They lost both starting guards and their center in the very early going and no team is going to win when that happens. It led to a running game that was literally grounded and exposed QB David Garrard to 42 sacks (double his previous high). The offensive line is healthy to start the season and Garrard lost 20 pounds in the off-season, setting up a swifter QB and back to the rollout play action formations in which he has had his greatest success. Maurice Jones-Drew finally gets to tote the rock exclusively and this team will be better for it. I expect the Jags to improve tremendously on offense this year. The Jags match up well with the Colts up front and their hard-nosed smash mouth tactics have taken advantage of Indy's weak interior defense. The Jags have always played well against the Colts and these games are very frequently tight and hotly contested. The last 14 times these teams have met, 12 games were decided by eight points or less and the Jags have covered four straight at Indianapolis. Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is now 5-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+ points. This is just too many points in a division rivalry like this one. The line is big because Jacksonville is underrated. I like the Jags to put up a real fight here.