RAS: #326 WF -3... 1 Unit 390 MTSU -1 .. 1 392 UL Laff UNDER 58'... 2 380 Neb UNDER 55 .. 1 346 Buff UNDER 48' .. 1 350 BC UNDER 46' .. 1 347 VA OVER 40' ... 1 355 Wash. St. OVER 51' .. 1
Maddux #306 - NCAA - 3 units on Connecticut +4 #327 - NCAA - 3 units on South Carolina +7 #330 - NCAA - 4 units on Tennessee -9 #364 - NCAA - 4 units on Southern Miss -14.5
Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack Premium Plays Matchup: Notre Dame at Michigan Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Notre Dame (-3.5 -110) Line Source: BETED Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT Notre Dame Over MICHIGAN - The home team is 8-2 SU and the L/3 have been decided by 27 ppg. UM had 6 TO’s and trailed 21-0 just 4:00 in LY and despite losing 35-17 they had a 388-260 yd edge. In Rod’s 2nd year at WV his team went from 21.4 ppg to 30.5 ppg and with a mobile QB like Forcier (PS#16) should be potent. They beat ND 38-0 the last time here and also won 38-0 in ‘03 which is the only 2 times the favorite has covered recently (dog is 11-2 ATS) with 6 outright upsets the L9Y. ND is 2-7 ATS in their first road game. Both started the season with thrashings of solid foes as the Irish dominated Nevada leading 28-0 at the half in a 35-0 win (510-307 yd edge). Clausen hit 15-18 for 315 yd with 4 TD passes including 3 to Floyd (189 yds). The D pitched the 1st shutout in the Weis era in Tenuta’s debut as the D play caller. UM took a rough week out on WM leading 31-0 at the half while outgaining the Broncos 289-79. Forcier threw for 179 yd and 3 TD while fellow true frosh Robinson had 74 yds rushing including a 43 yd TD run. ND has the edges on both sides of the ball (#4-21 off, #11-24 D) but this should go to the wire. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Louisiana Tech at Navy Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Louisiana Tech (+8 -110) Line Source: HILTON Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT Louisiana Tech (+) over NAVY - First meeting. Navy has only faced one current WAC member and dropped a 48-41 (-3) decision to Hawaii in ‘99 in Honolulu. The Midshipmen are just 1-7-1 ATS (4-6 SU) in their first “true” (in Annapolis) HG. However, Navy is an outstanding 37-8 SU and 26-13 ATS vs non-BCS tms S/’03 incl a mark of 20-4 SU (9-8 ATS) in gms played in Annapolis. LY Navy went 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS vs non-BCS tms. LT played its first contest vs a service academy LY losing 14-7 (+2’) at Army gaining only 152 yds and 9 FD’s. The Bulldogs are just 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS in non-conf AG but Tech is 6-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs non-conf, non-BCS tms S/‘05. The two are nearly even on off (Navy #86-87), def (Navy #89-90) and ST (LT #71-84). The Bulldogs are coming off a 37-13 loss to Auburn where they were outgained 556-245 and outFD’d 27-19. Navy gave Ohio St a scare before falling 31-27 after scoring a pair of TD’s in less than four minutes but the potential game-tying 2pt conversion was returned the other way. The Midshipmen were only outgained 363-342 and FD’s were even at 19 apiece. LA Tech only has FCS Nicholls St on deck while Navy travels to Pittsburgh next. LA Tech now has the scheduling edge with Navy in a BCS sandwich and disregard LT’s performance LW vs a motivated SEC squad. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Rice at Texas Tech Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Texas Tech (-26.5 -110) Line Source: CAESARS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT TEXAS TECH Over Rice - Rice fell at home 59-24 (+28) to TT in their last meeting in ‘07. These schools played every yr from 1960-‘95 (SWC) and the HT had won 7 in a row SU prior to ‘07. Mike Leach has a big ego and will note that Rice passed for 327 ypg in ‘08 and he’ll be anxious to show that his attack is better. Rice does not have QB Clement or WR Dilliard and also lost their OC. While both teams have a young QB, TT always does well no matter who is at QB and Rice’s production LY with a veteran senior QB was 126 ypg better than when Clement was a 1st year starter. The L4Y Rice has lost to Texas and TT by 41.4 ppg. The Owls were hoping to rely on an experienced D as they broke in new QB’s, but they allowed 516 yds to UAB in a 44-24 loss LW. QB’s Shepherd and Fanuzzi split snaps and neither distinguished himself as they combined to complete 22-42 (52%) for 235 yds with a 1-1 ratio. Tech is off a 38-13 win over FCS North Dakota as new starting QB Potts completed 32-47 (68%) for 420 yds but only had a 2-3 ratio. Tech has a huge game vs Texas on deck, but Rice is just 1-9 ATS vs BCS teams the L4Y. Rice has inexperienced QB’s and a young O-line and that will be a problem in a very tough and loud stadium, so we expect the Red Raiders to cruise to an easy home win. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Miss. State at Auburn Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Auburn (-14 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT AUBURN Over Mississippi St - Last year Auburn had a 315-116 yard edge but only won 3-2. Both are coming off of losing years and in ‘07 Miss St beat Auburn here in Jordan-Hare 19-14 (+13). We liked the Bulldogs here in ‘07 but this year the situation favors Auburn. The fav is 12-5 ATS in the series and Auburn is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in their SEC openers. Miss St has just 10 ret sts and 28 lett lost while Auburn has 15 ret sts. Aub turned in an impressive opener with two 100+ yd rushers (true frosh McCalebb 148, 6.7 and Ben Tate 117, 5.8) while QB Todd threw for 255 (65%) and a 2-0 ratio. MSU defeated Jackson St 45-7 outgaining the lower-tier IAA team 410-194 with QB’s Lee and Relf splitting snaps (comb 172 yds, 64%, 3-0 ratio). Both tms have new HC’s and much more dynamic offenses with MSU HC Mullen bringing in Florida’s off and Aub OC Malzahn bringing in Tulsa’s spread which could mean that TY’s meeting might be the opposite of LY’s defensive slugfest. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Bowling Green at Missouri Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Missouri (-18.5 -110) Line Source: CAESARS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT MISSOURI over Bowling Green - Missouri is 10-2 in home openers (win by 25 ppg). Pinkel has many MAC ties as he was a KSU grad, BG WR’s cch and Toledo’s HC (‘91-‘00). BG has beaten Pinkel twice: 20-13 in his 1st home game here in ‘01 and 51-28 at home in ‘02 (last meeting). Both teams are young as the Tigers are the least exp team in IA and BG has just 10 starters back and a new HC and are making their first road trip. The Falcons upset Troy 31-14 but that was inflated by a late 64 yd IR TD as they only had a 389-305 yd edge. BG QB Sheehan has avg 280 ypg (62%) in 4 games visiting BCS teams, including guiding 2 outright upsets and threw for 339 (73%) with a 2-1 ratio LW. The Tigers are off a 37-9 win (+6’) over Illinois in which they had a 442-325 yd edge and were +2 TO. Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert threw for 319 yds (76%) with a 3-0 ratio in his first start. Missouri has an FCS team on deck and will be focused here. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: So. Cal at Ohio State Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: So. Cal (-6.5 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT Usc Over OHIO ST - 2008’s matchup between these programs was much closer than the final as OSU had the 1H yd edge but had TWO TD’s called back on pen, missed a chip shot FG and played without star RB Wells, plus phenom QB Pryor was just getting acclimated to the system. OSU is 47-1 at home vs non-conf (only loss vs #2 Tex ‘05) but may have been looking ahead somewhat vs Navy LW as they had to hold on for the 4 pt win (363-342 yd edge). OSU is 12-5 ATS in non-conf BCS gms and 9-3 SU/ATS vs the P10 but will be in unfamiliar territory as a HD here (1-2 ATS over L10Y incl loss to PSU LY). USC is 11-1 SU/ATS in their 1st RG and 8-0 ATS as a single digit fav over the L3Y, but does have true frosh QB Barkley making his first road start (233 yds, 79% LW). The Trojan D was suffocating as they recorded 16 tfl and held the Spartans to just 8 FD’s and 121 ttl yds. While both teams have just 12 ret sts and some major draft losses, the well wasn’t left dry for either program as they appear loaded again with this meeting playing a major role in the early BCS picture. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Utah at San Jose St Time: 10:30 PM EDT (Sat) Play: San Jose St (+14 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT SAN JOSE ST (+13) over Utah - Utah leads the series 4-1 SU (1-0 ATS) with the last meeting a 49-17 Utes win (-7) in ‘98. Utah currently owns the nation’s longest win streak (15) and finished last year #2 in the polls. The Utes are 5-0 SU/ATS on the road vs non-BCS/non-conf tms but all were vs Utah St. Utah is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS on the road and is on a current 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) run in AG’s. The Utes spent all but Wk 1 in the polls LY and entered TY ranked in a preseason poll for just the second time ever and the first S/’04. Utah opened the season last Thurs with a 35-17 win over Utah St, as they broke in a new starting QB. Utah has an edge on off (#67-95), def (#39-73) and ST (#57-99). SJSt was held to just 121 ttl yds (8 FD’s) in their opening 56-3 loss at USC. SJSt is 1-13 SU but 8-6 ATS against ranked tms S/’00. In the L/4 gms vs ranked tms at home the Spartans are 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS having lost two contests in OT and one on a last-second FG. SJSt is 7-0 SU (2-0 ATS) in home openers S/’03 but 5 gms were vs FCS opponents. Utah’s QB Cain now makes his first road start and you have to believe that HC Tomey looked past a “sure loss” to USC to focus on a winnable home opener against a ranked foe. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Oregon St at UNLV Time: 11:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: UNLV (+7.5 -110) Line Source: STATIONS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT UNLV (+) over Oregon St - This is the perfect time of year for UNLV to play OSU. HC Riley has done a tremendous job with the Beavers but opp coaches have noted that they are slow starters as Riley has gone 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS on the road in the first 4 weeks of the ssn with their avg ATS loss by 15.8 ppg! They have just 10 starters back and this is their 1st road trip and true test. The Rodgers brothers combined for 4 TD’s in their win vs Port St LW, however, it was somewhat alarming for the def as they allowed 349 yds to Vikings. QB Canfield (158 yds, 73% in just 1H) will line up behind center again TW and could be playing for his starting spot with LY’s #1 QB Moevao close to returning from spg shldr surgery. The Rebels won their 4th consec home opener LW vs Sac St 38-3 as they outgained the Hornets 466-228. HC Sanford is just 12-36 SU but is 8-2 ATS as an HD and LY beat #15 Ariz St on the road! UNLV has 14 ret sts incl vet QB Clayton (213 yds, 76% LW) and an excellent set of WR’s which could continue the early Beaver slide here as the Rebels look to knock off a BCS team at home for the 2nd consec ssn (34-31 OT win vs Iowa St LY). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Member Plays Matchup: Iowa at Iowa State Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Iowa (-6.5 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 10, 2009 @ 2:29:17 PM EDT Iowa over IOWA ST - The home team has won 5 in a row but ISU is 7-4 SU (dog in 9) and are 10-1 ATS. LY Iowa got an 81 yd PR TD with 6:19 left to lead 17-3 (-13’) but took an intentional safety with :28 left to give the Cyclones the cover. ISU beat FCS ND St 34-17 on Thursday night in HC Rhoads’ debut to end a 10 gm losing streak. ISU rec’d a fmbl in the EZ in the 1Q and led just 24-17 in the 3Q before pulling away despite being outrushed by the Bison 210-204. Iowa blocked 2 gm winning FG att’s to survive the FCS’s #4 team, N Iowa 17-16 as they were outgained 354-329 and trailed most of the game. QB Stanzi threw for 242 yds and the RB tandem of O’Meara and Robinson had just 79 yds. Iowa has a huge D edge (#14-96) and starts a new ISU losing streak.
The Boss 500% Untouchable Play BYU 300% 3 Team Steam Roll Parlay (Boise, BYU, Kansas) 200% Dog Pound! Michigan 100% Silent Assassins (Air Force, Navy, Virginia Tech)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook 9/10--9/14 NCAA Best Bets... 5* Air Force (+) over Minnesota by 11 4* UAB over SMU by 21 3* Auburn over Miss. St. by 24 Upset GOW (lost last week) Central Mich. over Mich St by 1
Pointwise Red Sheet 9/10--9/14 AUBURN 41 - Mississippi State 13 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 15, and is now minus 14½. That's right, the Tigers also graced this spot on LW's Red Sheet, with a solid 11-pt cover the result. Check a resounding 37-13 rout, while amassing 556 yds (311-yd edge) vs a LaTech team which returned 16 starters from its '08 bowl-winning squad. That's a far cry from a year ago, when Auburn ranked 104th in the nation on offense. New HC Chizik, along with a bevy of quality assistants has turned this normal power around. As we've written before: a team on a mission. 'Dogs hardly the team to curb this momentum. RATING: AUBURN 89 SO MISSISSIPPI 44 - Central Florida 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 14, and is now minus 15. Looks like the same old story for UCF, despite returning 10 offensive starters. Ranked as the worst offensive team in the nation in '08, the Knights managed only 14 FDs & 282 total yds last week, in barely getting by Samford, 28-24, at home, no less. Eagles also return a batch of "O" starters (9), & nearly match that with 8 veterans on "O". Led Alcorn, 35-0 at the half last week, & held a 398-62 RY edge at game's end. Six straight wins, five straight covers, & check 41:56-18:04 time edge over Knights LY. Highly doable spread. RATING: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 89 TEXAS TECH 55 - Rice 14 - (7:00) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 25, and is now minus 27. Not the best of openers for the Raiders, who would normally take no prisoners vs the likes of No Dakota. But a 405-PY effort from new QB Potts is an indication that this latest Leach edition has the potential to keep recent explosive efforts in tact. Owls were spectacular in '08, ranking 10th in the land in scoring & total "O". But the departure of record-setting QB Clement (44 TDs) puts too much pressure on newcomers. Cannot offset lacking "D". RATING: TEXAS TECH 88 TENNESSEE 34 - Ucla 13 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 10, and is now minus 8. As you know, the Vols sat in this exact same position a week ago, & came through with a 63-7 romper over lowly WesternKy (26-pt cover). Much like the Auburn Tigers above, who are in off a rare down campaign, UT is under new leadership, with a renewed dedication. So scores to settle, beginning with Bruins, who won in OT last year, so absolutely no peek ahead to new week's game with Florida. Host team is 30-13 ATS in Bruin contests. Ditto. RATING: TENNESSEE 88 East Carolina 26 - WEST VIRGINIA 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 7, and is now minus 6½. Here we go again. The Pirates have enjoyed superb success vs the Mounties in recent years, smothering WVa's highly potent overland game, in the process. As we wrote earlier, just 127, 153, & 179 RYs for Mounties in 3 of last 4 vs ECU (18, 3½, 28½ pt Pirate covers). WVa is now without the blazing White at QB, & has yet to top 35 pts under Stewart, who replaced Rodriguez LY. Call yet another series upset for the Pirates. RATING: EAST CAROLINA 88
Power Sweep 4* UNLV 27-24 3*South Miss. 37-16 3*Missouri 45-17 2*Tulsa 42-20 2*Iowa 34-20 2* Lousiana Tech (+) 23-26 Underdog Play San Jose +13 Outright 24-23
Pointwise Newsletter College Football Key Releases (2-4, 33%, "1" rated selections 0-2 last week) 1--Auburn (-14') over Mississippi State 38-13 1--South Carolina (+7) over Georgia 17-15 2--TCU (-10') over Virginia 30-10 2--S. Mississippi (-15') over UCF 41-17 3--Vanderbilt (+15) over LSU 24-30 4--East Carolina (+5') over West Virginia 26-20 5--USC (-6') over Ohio State 31-17
CKO 11 *IOWA STATE over Iowa Late Score Forecast: *IOWA STATE 23 - Iowa 16 10 VANDERBILT over *Lsu Late Score Forecast: VANDERBILT 20 - *Lsu 23 10 CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *Michigan St. Late Score Forecast: CENT. MICHIGAN 24 - *Michigan St. 28 10 *PENN STATE over Syracuse Late Score Forecast: *PENN STATE 45 - Syracuse 3 NINE-RATED GAMES: TENNESSEE (-7½) vs. Ucla—Only UCLA’s respected pointspread record as a dog (22-7 L5Ys) is keeping this payback game from being rated higher...SOUTHERN MISS (-16) vs. Ucf—Golden Eagles on roll offensively & defensively since beginning of last November; UCF doesn’t have the firepower to keep up...NEBRASKA (-23½) vs. Arkansas State—Husker starters played little more than a half in dominating 49-3 victory last week over Florida Atlantic; Ark. State 1-6 vs. the line on the road
Scott Ferrall NCAAF FREE PICKS FOR SATURDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS Ohio NORTH TEXAS +3 KANSAS STATE -7 ½ Louisiana –Lafayette KANSAS -11 UTEP DUKE +2 ½ Army IOWA -6 ½ Iowa State
Norm Hitzges (10-6 last week, 28-20 on the season including preseason) Double Plays Texas -32 UAB -12.5 Boise -37 Single Plays East Carolina +6.5 Cent Michigan +14.5 Northwestern -20 Auburn -14 South Carolina +7 TCU -11 La Tech +7.5 Air Force +3 Missouri -19.5 Southern Miss -14.5 Tulsa - 17.5 UNLV +7
DUNKEL SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 Game 305-306: North Carolina at Connecticut Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 95.818; Connecticut 94.763 Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1; 42 Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4 1/2; 46 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2); Under Game 307-308: East Carolina at West Virginia Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 86.001; West Virginia 94.098 Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8; 53 Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-6); Over Game 309-310: Syracuse at Penn State Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 79.631; Penn State 106.030 Dunkel Line: Penn State by 26 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Penn State by 28; 54 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+28); Under Game 311-312: Marshall at Virginia Tech Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 76.005; Virginia Tech 98.106 Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 22; 46 Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 19; 41 Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-19); Over Game 313-314: Central Michigan at Michigan State Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 79.752; Michigan State 96.820 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 17; 49 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-14 1/2); Under Game 315-316: Eastern Michigan at Northwestern Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 68.831; Northwestern 93.784 Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 25; 60 Vegas Line: Northwestern by 19; 56 Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-19); Over Game 317-318: Iowa at Iowa State Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 92.147; Iowa State 86.193 Dunkel Line: Iowa by 6; 48 Vegas Line: Iowa by 6 1/2; 46 Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+6 1/2); Over Game 319-320: Mississippi State at Auburn Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 82.121; Auburn 96.612 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 14 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Auburn by 14; 41 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-14); Over Game 321-322: Duke at Army Dunkel Ratings: Duke 77.739; Army 78.346 Dunkel Line: Army by 1; 38 Vegas Line: Army by 2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Duke (+2); Under Game 323-324: Fresno State at Wisconsin Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 79.531; Wisconsin 95.370 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 16; 47 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 8 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-8 1/2); Under Game 325-326: Stanford at Wake Forest Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 92.442; Wake Forest 91.861 Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1; 50 Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3; 46 Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+3); Over Game 327-328: South Carolina at Georgia Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 95.809; Georgia 100.927 Dunkel Line: Georgia by 5; 34 Vegas Line: Georgia by 7; 39 Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+7); Under Game 329-330: UCLA at Tennessee Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 86.054; Tennessee 100.818 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 15; 52 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-8 1/2); Over Game 331-332: BYU at Tulane Dunkel Ratings: BYU 96.715; Tulane 73.789 Dunkel Line: BYU by 23; 58 Vegas Line: BYU by 17; 54 Dunkel Pick: BYU (-17); Over Game 333-334: Purdue at Oregon Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 90.602; Oregon 103.935 Dunkel Line: Oregon by 13 1/2; 64 Vegas Line: Oregon by 12; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-12); Over Game 335-336: Texas at Wyoming Dunkel Ratings: Texas 111.517; Wyoming 78.290 Dunkel Line: Texas by 33; 61 Vegas Line: Texas by 33 1/2; 56 Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+33 1/2); Over Game 337-338: Louisiana Tech at Navy Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 81.244; Navy 87.433 Dunkel Line: Navy by 6; 53 Vegas Line: Navy by 7 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+7 1/2); Over Game 339-340: Notre Dame at Michigan Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 89.184; Michigan 92.252 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 3; 44 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 3; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+3); Under Game 341-342: Idaho at Washington Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 59.324; Washington 84.706 Dunkel Line: Washington by 25 1/2; 54 Vegas Line: Washington by 20 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-20 1/2); Over Game 343-344: SMU at UAB Dunkel Ratings: SMU 67.049; UAB 80.013 Dunkel Line: UAB by 13; 54 Vegas Line: UAB by 11 1/2; 58 Dunkel Pick: UAB (-11 1/2); Under Game 345-346: Pittsburgh at Buffalo Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 97.391; Buffalo 82.018 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 50 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Under Game 347-348: TCU at Virginia Dunkel Ratings: TCU 102.012; Virginia 93.079 Dunkel Line: TCU by 9; 45 Vegas Line: TCU by 11; 42 Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+11); Over Game 349-350: Kent State at Boston College Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 71.665; Boston College 96.849 Dunkel Line: Boston College by 25; 51 Vegas Line: Boston College by 20 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-20 1/2); Over Game 351-352: Rice at Texas Tech Dunkel Ratings: Rice 73.596; Texas Tech 108.139 Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 34 1/2; 69 Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 27; 66 Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-27); Over Game 353-354: Air Force at Minnesota Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 93.079; Minnesota 89.004 Dunkel Line: Air Force by 4; 43 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+3 1/2); Under Game 355-356: Hawaii at Washington State Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 72.910; Washington State 72.776 Dunkel Line: Even; 52 Vegas Line: Hawaii by 2 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+2 1/2); Over Game 357-358: Western Michigan at Indiana Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 79.018; Indiana 77.688 Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 1 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Indiana by 1 1/2; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+1 1/2); Under Game 359-360: Bowling Green at Missouri Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 86.833; Missouri 103.003 Dunkel Line: Missouri by 16; 53 Vegas Line: Missouri by 19; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+19); Under Game 361-362: Kansas at UTEP Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 97.391; UTEP 81.153 Dunkel Line: Kansas by 16; 58 Vegas Line: Kansas by 11 1/2; 62 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-11 1/2); Under Game 363-364: Central Florida at Southern Mississippi Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 74.767; Southern Mississippi 90.187 Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 15 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 14 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-14 1/2); Over Game 365-366: Houston at Oklahoma State Dunkel Ratings: Houston 88.915; Oklahoma State 108.533 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 19 1/2; 65 Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 15; 67 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-15); Under Game 367-368: Miami (OH) at Boise State Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 68.126; Boise State 106.200 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 38; 47 Vegas Line: Boise State by 36 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-36 1/2); Under Game 369-370: Vanderbilt at LSU Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 86.314; LSU 103.545 Dunkel Line: LSU by 17; 45 Vegas Line: LSU by 14; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LSU (-14); Under Game 371-372: Tulsa at New Mexico Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 95.121; New Mexico 77.066 Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 18; 53 Vegas Line: Tulsa by 17 1/2; 57 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-17 1/2); Under Game 373-374: USC at Ohio State Dunkel Ratings: USC 117.521; Ohio State 112.776 Dunkel Line: USC by 4 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: USC by 7; 47 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7); Over Game 375-376: Utah at San Jose State Dunkel Ratings: Utah 100.276; San Jose State 82.443 Dunkel Line: Utah by 18; 53 Vegas Line: Utah by 13 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Utah (-13 1/2); Over Game 377-378: Oregon State at UNLV Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 90.725; UNLV 87.420 Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 3 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Oregon State by 7; 54 Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+7); Over Game 379-380: Arkansas State at Nebraska Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 77.223; Nebraska 103.888 Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 26 1/2; 53 Vegas Line: Nebraska by 23; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-23); Under Game 381-382: Florida International at Alabama Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 75.443; Alabama 108.296 Dunkel Line: Alabama by 33; 52 Vegas Line: Alabama by 34; 48 Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+34); Over Game 383-384: South Florida at Western Kentucky Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 92.833; Western Kentucky 65.344 Dunkel Line: South Florida by 27 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: South Florida by 24; 48 Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-24); Under Game 385-386: Troy at Florida Dunkel Ratings: Troy 79.236; Florida 120.500 Dunkel Line: Florida by 41 1/2; 64 Vegas Line: Florida by 36; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-36); Over Game 387-388: Ohio at North Texas Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 73.457; North Texas 71.667 Dunkel Line: Ohio by 2; 46 Vegas Line: Ohio by 3; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+3); Under Game 389-390: Memphis at Middle Tennessee St. Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 78.204; Middle Tennessee St. 76.659 Dunkel Line: Memphis by 1 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 1; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1); Under Game 391-392: Kansas State at UL Lafayette Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 83.760; UL Lafayette 78.123 Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 5 1/2; 59 Vegas Line: Kansas State by 8; 64 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL Lafayette (+8); Under
Teddy Covers CFB East Carolina +6.5 (307) CFB 20* Big Ticket: Auburn -14 (320) CFB Louisiana Tech +7.5 (337) CFB Air Force +3 (353) CFB Southern Miss -14.5 (364) CFB North Texas +2.5 (388)
Dave Busk 5 Unit Pick #356 Take Washington State (+2) over Hawaii (Sept. 12, 7:00) Hawaii head coach Greg McMakin did a nice job stepping into that role and winning seven games and taking Hawaii to a bowl game after June Jones bolted the program. Hawaii returns just two starters on the defensive side of the ball this year and has a lot of young guy’s hitting the mainland for the first time visit Washington State. As bad as Washington State was last year and they were bad I don’t think they should be a dog in this situation. Washington State lost last week vs. Stanford in week one in a neutral field game vs. Stanford 39-13, but this team will improve this year. Second year head coach Paul Wolff put this program through a rigid off season workout program and they have installed a no huddle offense, they have a combined 14 starters back from a team that lost at Hawaii last year in the last game of the year at Hawaii 24-10. I like the Pac ten team here and I think they should be the favorite. Great Value 4 Unit Pick #365 Take Houston (+15) over Oklahoma State (Sept.12, 3:30) These two teams scored a combined 93 points as Oklahoma State registered a 56-37 comeback win vs. Houston ironically in week two of the 2008 season. Big difference this year, Oklahoma State is coming of a big win vs. Sec power Georgia and I think they could be a little full of themselves here. That was a physical game last week and I’ am sure it took a toll on the Cowboys. They now have to deal with standout Houston quarterback Case Keenum who rip apart Okie State and has thrown over 300 yards in 14 of his last 15 starts. I think it will be awful hard for the favorite to cover this how number in what should be another shootout. 2 Unit Pick Take Over (45.5) Iowa at Iowa State (Sept. 12, 12:00) The last two games of this rivalry have been low scoring with a 17 -5 Iowa in 2008 and 15-13 Iowa State win in 2007. I think this year will play out much different with Iowa State improving their power on that side of the ball with Florida Transfer Bo Williams and returning quarterback Austen Arnaud with the addition of new offensive coordinator Tom Hearn who set records with the Rice offense the last two years and installing the spread offense. Iowa offensive improved by fifty yards a game in 2008 from 2007 and have quarterback Ricky Stanza back along with three offensive lineman from 2008. Last year total closed at 48 in that low scoring game and now the odds maker has made adjustment but I believe it is the wrong adjustment, I made this total 51 by my numbers and I’ am playing that value. 1 Unit Pick Take Over (38) South Carolina at Georgia (Sept. 12, First Georgia quarterback Joe Cox is going to play and if he didn’t I would still be on the over here. This total is all about precipitation after South Carolina 7-3 win at North Carolina State and Georgia holding a powerful Oklahoma State offense to 24 points. This is just two low for two offensive minded coaches and while this is not a big play on the weekend it is still a play.
Allen Eastman 3-Unit Play. Take #305 North Carolina (-4.5) over Connecticut (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 12) Connecticut was just a small road favorite at Ohio last week and now they are a home underdog against North Carolina this week. The oddsmakers obviously don’t think much of this Connecticut team and I think that their beliefs are justified. They do have a strong running game but this strong North Carolina front is going to be much better than Ohio’s. North Carolina won at Rutgers last year by 32 points and beat Connecticut by 26 points at home. UNC has 15 starters and a majority of lettermen back from that team while Connecticut has just 12 starters back and is battling some injury issues. I like laying the small line on the more talented team. 2-Unit Play. Take #319 Mississippi State (+14) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12) Last year defense dominated this game and the final score was 3-2. That’s not a misprint! Defense should again control this game and as a result I think that the points will hold up. I’m not a big believer in Gene Chizik at Auburn and I haven’t seen enough to justify them being this large of a favorite in a conference game. The Bulldogs won 19-14 in their last trip to Auburn in 2007 and that means they have lost the last two meetings by just a total of five points. 3-Unit Play. Take #339 Notre Dame (-3.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12) Notre Dame and Michigan are both coming off routs last week but I was much more impressed with the Irish. Notre Dame has a significant experience advantage in this game. And they proved last year with their 35-17 win that the talent is clearly there. These games are very hyped up but recently they have been blowouts. The last three have been decided by an average of 27 points per game so I don’t have a problem laying just over a field goal. Experience wins out here. 4-Unit Play. Take #347 TCU (-11) over Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12) Virginia is coming off a loss to a Div. I-AA school last week and they were sloppy while doing it. The Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the sorry ACC and they just don’t have the talent to compete against top teams. TCU did not play last week so they are chomping at the bit to get after the Cavs this weekend. TCU is a solid 13-6 SU against teams from BCS conferences over the last six years. They play their best against the top competition and I expect more of the same this weekend. 2-Unit Play. Take #387 Ohio (-2.5) over North Texas (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12) North Texas went into Ball State and stole a win last week. But Ohio is a better team than Ball State this year and they are coming off a tough loss at home to Connecticut. North Texas is just 17-30 ATS over the last four years and they are just 6-8 ATS as a home dog. They have lost 21 of 25 games since the start of 2007 so I don’t think I’ve seen enough to think that last week wasn’t just a fluke.
Strike Point Sports 6-Unit Game of the Month. #305 Take North Carolina -4.5 over Connecticut (9/12 Saturday, 12 p.m. EST) 4-Unit Play. #323 Take Fresno State +8.5 over Wisconsin (9/12 Saturday, 12 p.m. EST) 3-Unit Play. #319 Take Mississippi State +14 over Auburn (9/12 Saturday, 7 p.m. EST) 4-Unit Play. #388 Take North Texas +3 over Ohio (9/12 Saturday, 7 p.m. EST) 3-Unit Play. #356 Take Washington State +2 over Hawaii (9/12 Saturday, 7 p.m. EST) 4-Unit Play. #354 Take Minnesota -3.5 over Air Force (9/12 Saturday, 7 p.m. EST) 4-Unit Play. #333 Take Purdue +12 over Oregon (9/12 Saturday, 10:15 p.m. EST)
Dr. Bob It's rare that I don't have any Best Bets, but this is one of those weeks. There were a lot of games that were close to being Best Bets, but I didn't want to force the action as there will be plenty of Best Bets over the course of the season. I do have 8 Strong Opinions. Strong Opinion - Rotation #301 Clemson (+5) Strong Opinion at +4 or more. Strong Opinion - Rotation #304 Toledo (+4) Strong Opinion at +3 or more. Strong Opinion - Rotation #318 Iowa State (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +6 or more. Strong Opinion - Rotation #322 Army (pk/-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less. Strong Opinion - Rotation #332 Tulane (+17 1/2) Strong Opinion at +17 or more. Strong Opinion - Rotation #336 Wyoming (+33) Strong Opinion at +32 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +35 or more. Strong Opinion - Rotation #340 Michigan (+3) Strong Opinion at +3 or more. Strong Opinion - Rotation #350 Boston College (-20 1/2) Strong Opinion at -21 or less. Strong Opinion Clemson 24 GEORGIA TECH (-5.0) 23 04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Sep-09 Redshirt freshman quarterback Kyle Parker makes his first road start after playing pretty well last week in his home debut, a 37-14 win over Middle Tennessee State. Parker got plenty of help from great special teams play, but the Tigers starting offense out-gained their Blue Raiders' counterparts 5.8 yards per play to 3.9 yppl even with an injured RB C.J. Spiller getting just 4 carries due to a tweaked hamstring (he's practicing and listed as probable this week). Clemson looks just average offensively this season even with Spiller, but the Tigers have a very good defense that I rate at 1.0 yppl better than an average team and their special teams continue to be among the best in the nation. Georgia Tech had a pretty easy time against Jacksonville State, as the starters jumped out to a 31-7 half time lead before coasting to a 37-17 win. Jonathan Dwyer has 95 yards on just 7 carries before taking an early seat on the bench, but Clemson's defense will provide a huge test for the Yellow Jackets' option attack given how strong the Tigers are on the defensive front. My ratings favor Georgia Tech by just 3 points and Clemson applies to a 41-8-2 ATS game 2 situation. I'll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at +4 or more based on the situation. Strong Opinion TOLEDO 30 Colorado (-4.0) 28 06:00 PM Pacific, 11-Sep-09 Both of these teams were beaten pretty soundly last week, as the Rockets lost on the road 31-52 at Purdue while Colorado was upset 17-23 by Colorado State as a 10 1/2 point home favorite in a game that really wasn't that close (the Buffs were out-gained 4.1 yards per play to 6.0 yppl). Colorado looks as dismal on offense this season as they were last year (0.9 yppl worse than average) and the Buffaloes' rebuilt defense (4 returning starters) was exploited with numerous big plays by the Rams, who took advantage of two young Colorado safeties to average 20.8 yards per completion. Toledo's 4th year starting quarterback Aaron Opelt should have pretty good passing stats against that Buffs secondary after throwing for 423 yards at a solid 6.3 yards per pass play on 67 pass plays against a good Purdue secondary last week. The absence of last year's leading rusher Morgan Williams (suspended for 2 games) isn't that big of a deal considering that Toledo threw the ball nearly 80% of the time last week and will probably do so again tonight. Toledo's defense was a huge problem, allowing 535 yards at 8.0 yppl to the Boilermakers, so it appears that the Rockets are having a tough time grasping the new defensive scheme. However, Colorado doesn't appear to be able to fully take advantage of that defense like Purdue did last week. My ratings favor Colorado by 2 points and the Buffaloes apply to a negative 35-83-7 ATS scheduling situation. Toledo, meanwhile, tends to play much better at home than they do on the road, as the Rockets are 38-21 ATS all time at home. I'll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 or more. Strong Opinion IOWA ST. 26 Iowa (-6.5) 27 09:00 AM Pacific, 12-Sep-09 Iowa nearly escaped with a 17-16 win over Northern Iowa last week and this game could be another tough one for the Hawkeyes. Northern Iowa is a good FCS team that rates at just a few points worse than an average FBS team but Iowa played a slightly below average team even at 5.1 yards per play apiece on their home field. The Hawkeyes were down two starting offensive lineman last week and the makeshift line averaged just 4.6 yards per rushing play and allowed 4 sacks. One of the Hawkeyes' offensive linemen returns from suspension this week, so the line play should be better. Even so, Iowa is without starting RB Jewell Hampton for the season and Robinson and O'Meara showed nothing last week (just 79 combined yards on 24 carries) that suggests Iowa will be able to run the ball successfully this season. The Hawkeyes should run the ball at a pretty good clip today against a Cyclones' defense that allowed North Dakota State to run for 232 yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play and quarterback Ricky Stanzi should post good passing numbers as long as the Cyclones' new found pass rush (4 sacks last week against a decent N. Dakota State team) takes advantage of Iowa's line. Iowa State's Austin Arnaud is a good dual threat quarterback and the Cyclones do have a good offense this season, but Iowa's defense should play better than it did last week. My ratings actually favor Iowa by 8 points, which is what the line opened at. The reason for taking Iowa State is a number of good situations, including a negative 35-83-7 ATS game 2 situation applying to Iowa and a 56-15 ATS early season indicator that favors Iowa State. The technical analysis is enough to make Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +6 or more. Strong Opinion ARMY (pk/-1) 23 Duke 17 09:00 AM Pacific, 12-Sep-09 Army was an underrated team heading into last week's game with Eastern Michigan, but a 27-14 upset win with a 6.0 yards per play to 3.8 yppl advantage has people taking notice. Army's new option offense ran for 317 yards at 7.0 yards per rushing play against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense, but doing that against a good Duke run defense will be a tougher task today. Duke lost 16-24 at home to FCS team Richmond, but Richmond has a ton of talent returning from a team that was the FCS champion last season and last year's team was about 5 1/2 points better than an average FBS team, so that was not really an upset (Duke was favored by just 2 points at home). Duke did, however, out-gain Richmond 5.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl, which is actually pretty impressive. Army's defense was solid last year when LB Stephen Anderson played (he didn't start until game 4) and the Cadets' defense looked good last week, so Duke should also have some trouble moving the ball - although experienced quarterback Thaddeus Lewis had a pretty good game (6.1 yards per pass play) against a very good Richmond defense that would rate at 0.6 yppl better than an average FBS defense. My ratings favor Army by 2 points but and the Black Knights apply to a very good 56-15 ATS early season indicator while Duke applies to a negative 60-124-1 ATS situation. My only concern is the match-up, as Army's offense could stall if Duke's good run defense can stop the run, as Army quarterback Trent Steelman accounted for -4 yards on 7 pass plays last week. I'll consider Army a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less based on the technical analysis, but I'll pass on making this game a Best Bet due to the uncertainty of how well Army's rushing attack will perform against a good run defense. Strong Opinion BOSTON COLLEGE (-20.5) 33 Kent State 7 11:00 AM Pacific, 12-Sep-09 Boston College opened the Frank Spaziani era with a 54-0 win over Northeastern last week and that victory is impressive even after accounting for the fact that their opponent is 25 points worse than an average Division 1A (FBS) team. Kent, meanwhile, wasn't so impressive in a 19-0 win over lowly Coastal Carolina, who is about 21 points worse than an average FBS team. Kent's defense played well, but the Flashes have struggled defending the run against better competition in recent years and Boston College should be able to run the ball very well in this game while their quarterbacks post decent numbers in support of the rushing attack. Kent's offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play last week against a bad Coastal Carolina defense and they will likely struggle against what appears to be another good Boston College defense that gave up just 2.5 yppl to a Northeastern offense that would average 4.1 yppl on the road against an average FBS team. Boston College does have some injury problems on the defensive side of the ball, but the backups played well last week and are certainly more talented than Kent's offensive personnel. Eugene Jarvis is a good back, but he appears to be Kent's only weapon and BC's tradition of good run defense should continue this year under their new leadership. My ratings favor BC by 21 1/2 points, so the line is pretty fair, but the Eagles apply to a very good 101-32 ATS momentum situation and Kent is 0-8 ATS following their last 8 victories. I'll consider Boston College a Strong Opinion at -21 or less. Strong Opinion MICHIGAN 26 Notre Dame (-3.0) 23 12:30 PM Pacific, 12-Sep-09 Both of these teams were impressive in week 1 blowouts against decent competition and this will be a true test for each squad. Notre Dame came into the season with more hype and they were more impressive last week in beating Nevada 35-0 than Michigan was in beating Western Michigan 31-7, but the team that looks the best rarely gets the money in this game. In fact, the underdog in this game is 12-8-1 straight up and 18-3 ATS since 1982, including Notre Dame's 35-17 win as a 2 point home dog last year. That pushed the mark of home underdogs in this series to 7-0 ATS and I see that pattern continuing. My updated ratings favor Notre Dame by 3 points, which is right on the number, but aside from the series trend the Wolverines apply to a very good 77-24-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a 56-15 ATS early season indicator. The technical analysis is strongly in favor of Michigan in this game and I'll consider Michigan a Strong Opinion as an underdog of 3 points or more. Strong Opinion TULANE 23 BYU (-17.5) 35 12:30 PM Pacific, 12-Sep-09 If ever there were a letdown game this is it. BYU opened the season by knocking Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford out of the game and upsetting the #3 ranked Sooners 14-13 as a 22 1/2 point dog. BYU was playing the Sooners even when Bradford was in the game and the Cougars out-gained Oklahoma 5.4 yards per play to 4.6 yppl (5.3 yppl with Bradford stats only), so their win was no fluke. In fact, it should have been easier than a 1 point win given how easily Cougars' quarterback Max Hall dissected the Sooners' defense for 26 of 38 passing for 329 yards. That win, however, sets up BYU in a very negative 0-15 ATS subset of a 5-30 ATS game 2 letdown situation and Tulane wasn't that bad last week against an explosive Tulsa team. Tulane didn't cover as a 14 point dog in their 13-37 loss, but being out-gained by just 1.2 yppl (5.5 yppl to 6.7 yppl) was exactly what I expected in that game. It was the Tulane special teams that cost them about 10 points (a 66 yard punt return TD by Tulsa and about 3 points worth of field position). Tulane's special teams aren't likely to be quite as bad and star running back Andre Anderson should perform better this week after averaging just 2.6 ypr last week after being weakened by the flu. In fact, 23 of Tulane's players were hit with the flu in late August and the entire team should have more energy for this game. New Tulane quarterback Joe Kemp is a good passer (16 for 26 for 278 yard) that can take advantage of a BYU team that is probably spending more time this week taking pats on the back than studying film on how to beat the Green Wave. BYU will get their points, but Tulane has a good enough offense to compete. My ratings favor the Cougars by 18 points - so the line is fair - I'll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more based on the strong situation. I'd take Tulane in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more. Strong Opinion WYOMING 13 Texas (-33.0) 41 12:30 PM Pacific, 12-Sep-09 Wyoming is still a bad offensive team, but the Cowboys are better than average defensively and should slow down the Texas offense enough to stay within a huge number at home. Wyoming's defense gave up just 5.0 yards per play last season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and I rate the Cowboys' stop unit even better this season with 8 starters returning, including all 4 defensive linemen and their best 3 defensive backs. Wyoming allowed just 27.8 points per game in 2008 despite a horrible offense and a -22 in turnover margin that constantly put them in bad field position. That unit was tested last week by a very good Weber State attack that averaged 455 yards at 6.9 yppl last season and would have averaged 6.4 yppl against an average FBS defense. All of Weber's star offensive players are back from that team and Wyoming held them to 5.7 yppl and picked off 5 passes in last week's 29-22 victory. My math has that Wyoming defense limiting Texas to just 6.0 yppl in this game, so it will be a challenge for the Longhorns to score enough points to cover such a huge number even if Wyoming's offense struggles as expected (I project just 4.0 yppl for the Cowboys). Wyoming isn't likely to get more than 1 or 2 scoring opportunities against the Longhorns' #1 defense, but UL Monroe marched down the field twice in the 4th quarter last week against Texas subs to cover a big spread and Wyoming has a pretty good chance to cover in this game with just one touchdown. My ratings favor Texas by just 28 points and the Longhorns will be dealing with high altitude and could be caught looking ahead to their big revenge game with Texas Tech next week. Wyoming has 16 returning starters and teams with 16 or more returning starters are a solid 91-52-4 ATS as home underdogs in the first 3 games of the season over the years, including Washington's spread win against LSU last week. I'll consider Wyoming a Strong Opinion at +32 points or more and I'd make the Cowboys a 2-Star Best Bet at +35 or more.
Scott ferrall record: 2-3-1 388 north texas +3-- 391 kansas state -7 ½ 361 kansas -11-- 321 duke +2 ½ 317 iowa -6 ½
HQ REPORT 5* 316 NORTHWESTERN (-17) 3* 339 NORTE DAME (-4) o 3* 313 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+14) 3* 323 FRESNO STATE (+9) HQ UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK *337 LA TECH (+7) over NAVY HQ TOTAL RECALL OVER /UNDER SINGLE PLAY --329 UCLA vs TENNESSEE PLAY OVER A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems) SYSTEM PLAY --353 AIR FORCE (+4)
igz1 sports Saturday 9/12/09 CFB Card CFB 4* Over 60 (-110) Troy State vs Florida 4* North Carolina -4 (-110) 3* BYU -18 (-110) 3* Washington -20.5 (-110) 3* Oklahoma State -15 (-110) 3* Alabama -33.5 (-110) 3* Southern Miss -14 (-110)
Indian Cowboy 3 Unit Play. #330. Take Tennessee -10 over UCLA (Saturday @ 4pm est). The Vols certainly remember the loss to the Bruins last year. I look for Kiffin to continue his era with a big win over a quality program this weekend. Tennessee is a buzz after the Vols put up 63 points in their last game and covered the spread while they were at it. With a big win over the Bruins program I expect Tennessee to be riding high going into week three. Kiffin understands that its not just about winning for him, he has to win now, and win big to continue providing fodder as to why he is given the wiggle room and the resources that he has been given so far by the program. I like Kiffin in some ways because he does talk a big game it forces him to put up or shutup. Hence, that is great for us spread backers. 3 Unit Play. #328. Take Under 37.5 between South Carolina @ Georgia (Saturday @ 7pm est). The total continues to go down. I think this will be a drag out, ugly game. South Carolina has limited offense and has to rely on their defense. This team went to NC State and yielded just three points on national television. Quite impressive. I suspect the only way they have a shot in Athens is through their defense and I look for Georgia's defense to be very strong as they showed some great signs of improvement in Oklahoma State. I look for this game to dip below the 38 and possibly even below 30 as both teams will have trouble finding the endzone in this game in my opinion. The Under is 10-3 for the Bulldogs when they are favored by this margin and the Under is 6-1-1in the last 8 games for the Gamecocks in September. 3 Unit Play. #319. Take Mississippi State +14 over Auburn (Saturday @ 7pm est). Mississippi State and the offense looked great in their first contest. Granted it was not against a major school, but I state that to say that the Bulldog offense looked good with their new ball coach. Auburn looked shaky against Louisiana Tech in the early going but managed to put up fourteen points on the board and consequently cash last week's spread. I don't see them doing that this week against a quality SEC foe. I like the dog here as when you give an SEC team fourteen points it is certainly quite a lot as who is to say the Bulldogs cannot win this game outright? The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 SEC Conerence games and the Tigers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as double-digit favorites or greater.
Doc's Sports The Magnificent 7” Saturday, September 12th, 2009 6 Unit Play. #40 Take Auburn -14 over Mississippi State (Saturday 7 pm ESPN Gameplan) Top Selection of the Week. Auburn 42, Mississippi State 10. 5 Unit Play. #27 Take Fresno State +8 over Wisconsin (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Top Big Ten Selection. Wisconsin 27, Fresno State 24. 5 Unit Play. #7 Take Kent State +21 over Boston College (Saturday 2 pm ESPN Gameplan) Top Underdog Play. Boston College 24, Kent State 10. 4 Unit Play. #86 Take Under 45 ½ in Southern Cal at Ohio State (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Top Totals Pick. Would like to take the points, but I will not fall into that trap and just collect with the UNDER. USC 21, Ohio State 17. 4 Unit Play. #17 Take Central Michigan +14 ½ over Michigan State (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) MSU 24, Central Michigan 20. 4 Unit Play. #60 Take Buffalo +10 ½ over Pittsburgh (Saturday 12 pm ESPN Gameplan) Buffalo 27, Pittsburgh 24. 4 Unit Play. #94 Take UNLV +7 over Oregon State (Saturday 11 pm CBS College Sports) UNLV 28, Oregon State 24.
Bettorsworld Two Key Releases for Saturday. We generally start off slow with the ratings, which will be the case this year as well.* Our Plays are rated anywhere from a 1* opinion on up to a 7* play, with an average, or "regular play being a 3* or 3% of bankroll. 2* South Carolina +7* over Georgia - There was a move yesterday on this game across the board which saw some straight 6's show up, but then shortly after, there was a move right back to 7. So it looks like we have some fairly balanced action as far as "sharp" play goes on this game. Hard to pass up getting a touchdown in a game like this. These two have played some defensive battles over the years and all signs point towards more of the same (11 straight games in this series have gone under). Last year was a 7 point game. 2007 was a 4 point game. A 2 point game in 2005 and a 4 point game in 2004. Get the picture? Losing Stafford and Moreno is HUGE. That's an NFL QB/RB combo that you can't replace. Joe Cox has looked terrible and word out of Georgia is that he has an injured shoulder. Here's a quote - Coach Mark Richt said Thursday that Cox skips one day of throwing during the week — Wednesdays — and ESPN quoted Cox on Friday as saying that is because of “nerve problems caused by a muscle that protects my rotator cuff. One of the muscles that protects the rotator cuff has wasted away, and that puts pressure on the rotator cuff.” South Carolina may not return as many starters from a year ago as Georgia, but they didn't lose anyone with the talent of Stafford and Moreno. Even with those two a year ago, South Carolina held Georgia to 250 yards of offense and has also only allowed 1 td in the last two games against them. We're a little concerned with the South Carolina offense which is what keeps this from being a higher rated play. Spurrier teams at South Carolina always seem to struggle offensively early in the year. But the talent level and the series history suggest this one can go either way, so we'll bite and take the touchdown. 2* South Carolina +7 * 2* Ohio State +7 over USC - As hard as it might be for Big 10 and Buckeye fans to admit, Ohio State, in this era, will never be as good as USC. Nor will any Big 10 team. It's simply a different class of athlete across the board at USC than at most other schools with very few exceptions (Florida). USC has NFL caliber talent 2 and 3 deep at some positions. Ohio State does not. There's no better example of the Big 10's talent level than the two back to back BCS Title games that Ohio State lost, in 2006 and 2007. We're not here to bash Ohio State or the Big 10. We love Big 10 football. But as the saying goes, "it is what it is". Having said that, that doesn't mean Ohio State is necessarily a bad bet, in certain situations, against the likes of the Trojans. The better team doesn't always win in college football. College Football is unique as far as the situations that present themselves. Situations that can lift a good team over a better team. This may be one such spot for the Buckeyes this week. Let's take a look. Let's start with the "look ahead". It's a classic handicapping angle. A team is so excited about a game that's a week or two away that they overlook a current opponent and look mediocre. In that situation, we always get a little extra value in the line. The betting public assumes the team that looked mediocre last week, is just that, mediocre. When the team they are playing this week, looked like world beaters the previous week, that also adds to the public perception of the game. Make no mistake about it. Ohio State was looking ahead to USC last week when they took the field against Navy. You can be sure that Ohio State has been preparing for USC since spring practice. Heck, you can be sure that many coaches and players were looking ahead to USC since early last season when USC whipped Ohio State 35-3. That's where our next angle comes in, revenge. Revenge can be powerful in college football providing you have the right circumstances. If USC beats San Jose, and they play next year, well, there is likely not much San Jose can do about it. However, when two elite programs meet like Ohio State and USC, we have a different story. Athletes at any level want another crack at an opponent that defeated them, especially when the defeat was humiliating. If revenge isn't enough, how about a little added motivation. They don't play too many night games in Columbus. But in the games they do play at night, the Buckeyes have a 6-2 record, (although they have lost the last two). With the night game comes a National TV audience. The fans and the players are amped twice as much as they usually are. A chance for revenge against #3 ranked USC and a chance for the Buckeyes to take a leap up in the rankings. The adrenalin alone can keep things close. Ohio State is 39-4 at home since 2003. Tressel has been knocked for choking in big games, and rightly so, but he is also 24-1 against non conference opponents at home. The Buckeyes get to go against a Freshman Quarterback in Matt Barkley. Between the 105,000 rabid fans and that veteran Ohio State offensive line, expect the kid to at least struggle a bit. Also expect USC to try and pound the ball after having watched Navy run through the Buckeyes like Swiss Cheese last week. We'll make a 2* play on Ohio State +7. We'll also offer opinions on Ohio State +1/2 in the first quarter, Ohio State +3.5 in the first half, and under 23 for the first half. Can'tPickaWinner is offline Reply With Quote
Ben Burns Play Title **BIG TV BLOWOUT** Burns' ANNIHILATOR! (11-3 L14!) Play Selected Point Spread: -3.5/106 I'm laying the points with MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Gophers last week. They won but didn't cover at Syracuse. I feel that result has set them up perfectly here. For starters, it's helped to keep the line lower than it would have been if they had blown out the Orange. Note that the line has also come down from its opener, providing even further value. Perhaps most importantly, the Gophers had to "survive a scare" in their first game. They rallied for an overtime win though and I expect that experience to help them here. Conversely, Air Force absolutely crushed Nicholls State (an FCS or 1-AA team) by a score of 72-0 nothing last week. That type of win may be good for confidence but it doesn't exactly prepare a team for the "real thing." This will be the Gophers first game at TCF Bank Stadium, something they've been waiting a long time for. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games against teams from the Mountain West and I look for them to give the fans a victory, covering the small number along the way. *Annihilator Ben Burns 10* Main Event I'm taking the points with OHIO STATE. Betting against the Trojans is always a bit "nerve-wracking." However, I believe that this will be the perfect place to do so. Its true that the Trojans rolled in their opener while the Buckeyes were tested in theirs. Those results will have the majority of the betting public backing USC. However, I believe those results will actually work in the Buckeyes' favor. Like everyone else, the Trojans are already reading about how good they are. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have already had to fight through a close game. That should have helped to keep them extremely motivated all through practice this week - not that they should need any motivation for a visit from USC, a team which destroyed them last season. Despite last year's loss, the Buckeyes are still 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against teams from the Pac-10. With the o/u line currently down to 44.5 at most shops, it's also worth noting that Ohio State is 13-7 ATS (17-3 SU) the last 20 times that it played a home game with a total ranging from 42.5 to 45. While USC is always tough at practically every position, I like Tyrelle Pryor at QB better than Matt Barkley, at least at this stage of their careers. Yes, Barkley had a great debut. He's still a true freshman though and this will be a much tougher test. Pryor, a dual threat, has now had plenty of big games in his career. The Buckeyes bring back a relatively experienced defense and they're always tough on that side of the ball. I expect them to force the young USC QB into some mistakes. Including their 1/5 cover vs. Texas, the Buckeyes are 12-8 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. This is the first time that they've been able to play the Trojans at the Horseshoe since 1990 and I expect them to make the most of their opportunity, earning at least the cover. *10 Main Event
Vegas Sports Informer 3 Unit Play. #318 Take Iowa St +6 ½ over Iowa (Saturday 9/12 12:00 PM) The Iowa Hawkeyes were lucky to come away with a win in their opener (N Iowa) and they will surely not take any other opponent for granted. Iowa St possess matchup problems for Iowa and if they can make a few big plays they could get the home win. Taking the home underdog in this game! Iowa St is 10-1 ATS against Big 10 teams. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in this series. 3 Unit Play. #322 Take Army -1 ½ over Duke (Saturday 9/12 12:00 PM CBSC) Duke struggled at home against Richmond and now the Blue Devils play a much improved Army squad on the road. The Black Knights should once again lean on the run and yes the Army Black Knights could be 2-0. Army is 7-3 ATS in their 10 games. 3 Unit Play. #364 Take So Mississippi -15 over UCF (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM) Southern Miss are flying high following their opening win and they will now try to begin conference play in the same impressive fashion. Last year the Eagles beat UCF on the road by double-digits so Saturday night we should see the same outcome. Southern Miss will control this game from start to finish and emerge with an easy home win. Southern Miss is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. 2 Unit Play. #373 Take Under 45 ½ USC at Ohio St (Saturday 9/12 8:00 PM ESPN) USC is 9-21-1 O/U in their last 31 games as a favorite. Ohio St is 1-5 O/U in their last 6 games as an underdog. Both teams will want to establish the run and both QB’s will be conservative. 5 Unit Play. #388 Take North Texas +3 over Ohio (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM) (Game of the Week) I’m not surprised about the turnaround by North Texas from last year and Saturday night at home we should see another solid game from the Mean Green. The Mean Green were solid against Ball State, and against a weaker MAC opponent (Ohio), North Texas should be able to grab another victory. Ohio is 9-19-1 ATS in the month of September.
Randall the Handle 9/12 Texas Christian -11 over VIRGINIA PINNACLE At first glance this wager seems like a grave overreaction to Virginia losing to FCS opponent William and Mary. Unfortunately for Virginia, the loss wasn’t on a last second field goal or fluke play. The Cavaliers were legitimately beaten in time of possession, total yards and first downs to a team that hadn’t beat a BCS opponent since 1998. The ACC had an embarrassing weekend all around and it certainly seems as if the Big East has a challenger for worst BCS conference this year. Now Virginia must regroup against a team that has BCS aspirations itself in Texas Christian. With BYU and Utah winning over the weekend, TCU is highly motivated to prove that the upper half of Mountain West is a legitimate threat to any BCS team. Texas Christian has a suffocating defense that only allowed 11 points a game last year and hasn’t a allowed more than 18 in the past four seasons. Virginia runs a spread offense that obviously had disastrous results last week. If you look at teams that have installed the spread offense the past few seasons, two things are abundantly clear. One – you need spread oriented players, which after Virginia quarterbacks three interceptions and combined 137 yards passing is still a mystery, and two – it takes time to see positive results. Texas Christian returns six starters on offense, including quarterback Andy Dalton and running back Joe Turner to a unit that averaged 33.6 points a game. Texas Christian prefers to run the ball and limit mistakes, which means they lean heavily on their defense to create turnovers and limit clock killing drives. If you feel confident that Virginia’s offense can turn things around in seven days against a highly motivated TCU team and play at an elite level for 60 minutes – take the Cavaliers. I’ll back a Gary Patterson coached Texas Christian team that has proven it isn’t intimidated (11-5 vs BCS teams), has the defensive pedigree and absolutely must win this game if it has any chance of crashing the BCS. Play: #347 Texas Christian -11 (Risking 2.05 units to win 2) Notre Dame -3 +1.01 over MICHIGAN PINNACLE All was well for both historic college football powers in Week 1. Amid all the controversy surrounding both Charlie Weis and Rich Rodriguez, both coaches managed to pull of impressive victories against non BCS teams. Notre Dame finally looked like it had NFL caliber players on the defensive side of the ball as it pitched a shutout and managed to force three turnovers against Nevada. The offense, whose calling card all summer long was that it returned nine starters looked very impressive racking up 510 total yards of offense. Michigan’s offense also looked way better than last years, as highly touted freshman Tate Forcier threw three touchdowns as Michigan rolled over WMU. The key to this game for Michigan will be to repeat its offensive performance against a markedly better Notre Dame defense. Sure, Michigan looked great against WMU but they’re still very inexperienced at key positions to be counted on to score on every drive. A well-run spread offense is supposed to neutralize the talent disadvantage, but Michigan cannot be considered a team that has mastered the spread yet. With the inability to score, Michigan’s defense will have to hold the fort against a much more talented Notre Dame offense. For the first time since Brady Quinn suited up for the Fighting Irish, Notre Dame finally has an offense that will be capable of scoring against averages defenses like Michigan. Jimmy Clausen is an NFL caliber talent that can be trusted to make smart decisions and accurate throws. When backing a road favorite, especially at Michigan Stadium, it is extremely important to have the edge at the pivot as an inexperienced quarterback can single-handedly kill a wager, as Georgia backers will attest to last week at Boone Pickens stadium. The facts are that Notre Dame’s offense is more experienced and talented than the Wolverines and the same can be said on the opposite side of the ball. I expect Notre Dame to neutralize the inexperienced and less talented Michigan offense and continue to gain steam in the top 25 rankings. Play: #339 Notre Dame –3 +1.01 (Risking 2 units)
Wunderdog Game: N. Carolina at Connecticut (Saturday 9/12 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Connecticut +4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) Last year the Tar Heels destroyed a then-ranked Huskies’ squad to the tune of 38-12. The game turned as the Huskies played an unusually mistake-prone game, with three INTs and the Heels blocked three punts, which turned the game completely around. When you look at the numbers from that game without knowing the final score you'd think UConn won. The Huskies outgained the Heels 378-263, but the special teams gaffs along with the three INTs changed the entire complexion of the game. Now the Huskies look for revenge at home where they have gone 11-2 over the last two years. When posted as a home dog, they have gone 12-6 ATS. Butch Davis has done a good job at Carolina, but when taking to the road as a favorite, his squad is 0-2-1 ATS, still seeking their first cover. The Huskies have reigned supreme in out-of-conference games going 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45, and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four as a home dog of 3.5-10 points. They are also 20-8 ATS returning home from a road game and 9-2 ATS in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Randy Edsall. I'll go with the Huskies in this one. Game: Syracuse at Penn State (Saturday 9/12 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Penn State -28.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) At 80-years-old, Joe Pa was said to have seen the game pass him by. Looking at an 11-1 regular season a year ago and a team returning capable of doing the same, it looks like business as usual at Penn State. The Nittany Lions ran to a 31-0 halftime lead a week ago vs. Akron, and held the Zips to just eight first downs. The defense was excellent, allowing just 28 rushing yards on 30 carries. This one will see even more intensity, as these schools are in close proximity to each other and battle each other off the field for recruits. I'd expect starters to log more minutes here to get ready for a full game, and the intensity level showing no let up. Last year, Penn State was 27.5 point favorites on the road and won by 42 in week three. Not much has changed in the overall strength and weaknesses of these teams, and the line is similar to last year, but they are at home. Coach Paterno’s teams are not afraid to roll it up as heavy chalk coming in with a 9-3 ATS mark as a favorite of -17.5 plus in their last 12 such games.Penn State is 80-28 ATS over the past 17 years when they score 28+ points in a game and they will reach that figure here. Penn State can name the score here, and I think Joe Pa names this one big. I’m on Penn State in a blowout. Game: Iowa at Iowa State (Saturday 9/12 12:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Iowa State +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) This is one of those intrastate rivalries in which you can often through out the stats. You don't have to look at the relative strength or weaknesses of these teams when they meet. All you have to do is look at the history between these two. One thing for sure, Iowa State is going to show up here and play their best game of the season. Iowa looked weak against Northern Iowa last week, a school they should have dominated in all aspects of the game. But in the end they needed to block two late field goal attempts just to escape with a 17-16 win. In the last 11 games in this series, Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in this game, has won straight up as a dog of 17.5 points, 9.5, 3, 5 and 28 points! That is five underdog outright wins to an average line of +12.6. They have outperformed the line in the 10 wins by 14 points per game, or two TDs. The Hawkeyes are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five road openers. Iowa State is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games coming off a win. This one has too much history of Goliath getting slayed to not make this one a play. I will go with Iowa State in this one. Game: Kansas State at U L Lafayette (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on U L Lafayette +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) You really have to question this Kansas State team. They scheduled a non-FBS team at home (UMass) and had to hold on to squeak out a 21-17 win. Now they must take to the road where they are 4-17 SU in their last 21 games and lay a touchdown. Last year, Kansas State had the Cajuns at home and were outgained and torched for over 500 yards as a three TD+ favorite. Despite laying 21, they won that game by just 8 points and it was withing 5 in the fourth quarter. The Cajuns return 17 starters and get this one at home where they piled up 42 points and over 500 yards last week. Yes, the competition wasn't as great, but neither was it for Kansas State. The Wildcats have been more like “Mildcats” as a road chalk as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have more than held their own when facing a Big-12 school as they are 8-3 ATS against the BCS power conference. I like the dog here. Game: Bowling Green at Missouri (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Missouri -19.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) Last week we cashed with Missouri as they won outright as a 7-point dog to Illinois. I am on them again this week. Last week no one believed that the formerly high-octane offense of Missouri could still win without Chase Daniels and Jeremy Maclin. They proved the doubters wrong as they went into Illinois and hung 37 on a stout defense on the road. The defense held a potent Illini offensive attack lead by Juice Williams to just 9 points. Opponents beware... the demise of the Tigers is unfounded! Bowling Green looked premier taking to the road in similar fashion - a TD dog and rolling over Troy State. That's the good news. The bad news is that last year, three teams won on the road as a dog, and came back the following week on the road, were torched 120-17 going 0-3 SU and ATS. Missouri has been abusing out-of-conference opponents to the tune of a 9-1 ATS mark in their last 10 such games. Bowling Green might be lavishing in a surprising road win, but that feeling won't last long. Missouri gets the call here, hanging 50+ on the Falcons and winning big. Game: Central Florida at Southern Miss (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Southern Miss -14.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Last year, Central Florida had one of the worst offenses in college football. This season things don't look much brighter as they managed to gain just 282 yards against Samford last week. That certainly doesn't bode well for them here as Southern Miss was putting together a high-octane display of offense in their opener, good for 631 yards. Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora has put up a 26.6 points per game win margin when the Golden Eagles win as the offense leads the way. And as the offense gets better, the covers keep coming as the Golden Eagles covered their final five a year ago, including their Bowl win as an underdog. When you play at home against Samford, get out-gained and have to come from behind to win, it doesn't bode well heading on the road against a high-octane offense, especially when you've proven that you can't move the ball. Under George O'Learly, UCF is 0-8 ATS on the road following a non-conference game. I'm going with Southern Miss in this one. Game: Tulsa at New Mexico (Saturday 9/12 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on New Mexico +17.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) The Golden Hurricane dispatched lowly Tulane in their opener 37-13. That has put a bump in this line. Heading on the road is one thing, but when you look at the schedule and see Oklahoma coming up for Tulsa next week, you can be sure they will have part of their minds on that game. That can result in a lack of emotion in this one. After all, they trounced the Lobos 56-14 a year ago, so how will this one get their attention, especially with the Sooners on deck? The Golden Hurricane haven't fared well on grass as they have turned in a 3-8 ATS mark recently. They are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven road games after allowing 325+ yards the game before. Under head coach Todd Graham, they are 1-8 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points the week before. The Lobos have been getting it done after a straight-up loss by following it up with a 12-5 ATS mark. They have also covered each of their last four at home. All eyes on Oklahoma here on the Tulsa sidelines opens the door for a Lobo’s cover to an inflated spread. I'm backing New Mexico here.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 COLLEGE FOOTBALL (3) USC (1-0 SU and ATS) at (8) Ohio State (1-0, 0-1 ATS) The game of the day comes from the Horseshoe in Columbus, where Ohio State will be out for revenge as it hosts USC and true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley. The Trojans ran their winning streak to 11 last Saturday and did so in emphatic fashion, pummeling San Jose State 56-3 and covering easily as a 34-point home favorite. USC actually trailed the Spartans 3-0 after the first quarter then scored 28 points in less than 11 minutes in the second quarter and never looked back, finishing with a 621-121 edge in total offense, including 343-9 on the ground. Barkley, the first true freshman to start under center for the Trojans, went 15-for-19 for 233 yards with one TD and no INTs. The Buckeyes survived a scare against Navy in their opener, holding on for a 31-27 victory but coming up way short as a 22-point home favorite. Ohio State held a 29-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but it needed a two-point interception return on a botched Navy two-point conversion try with 2½ minutes to play to seal the win. The Buckeyes had 363 total yards (153 rushing) but allowed the Midshipmen to pile up 342 (186 rushing), and QB Terrelle Pryor was inconsistent (14-for-21, 174 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). USC crushed the Buckeyes 35-3 as a 10½-point home favorite exactly a year ago, but Ohio State had two first-half touchdowns called back on penalties. The Trojans’ defense allowed just 207 yards, Pete Carroll’s squad finished with a 164-71 edge in rushing yards, and then-USC QB Mark Sanchez tossed four TD passes. USC went just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road chalk in 2008, but the Trojans otherwise are on impressive pointspread upticks of 35-17 in non-Pac-10 games, 8-2 in non-conference roadies and 7-0 against the Big Ten and 14-2 as a single-digit favorite (8-0 last eight). They’re also 11-1 SU and ATS the last 12 years in their road opener. Ohio State has won 47 of its last 48 non-conference home games, the lone defeat coming against Vince Young and No. 2 Texas in 2005. The Buckeyes are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after a non-cover and 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 against Pac-10 foes. On the downside, the Buckeyes have failed to cover in seven of their last eight at home as well as six straight September outings. The Trojans carry “under” trends of 17-7-1 overall, 13-6 in non-league games, 21-9-1 as a favorite, 11-1 as a single-digit chalk and 4-1 in September. Meanwhile, Ohio State has topped the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise the under is 11-5 in its last 16 in September, 4-1 in its last five versus the Pac-10 and 5-1 in its last six as an underdog. ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER (19) North Carolina (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Connecticut (1-0 SU and ATS) The Tar Heels’ stingy defense will be put to the test when they stroll onto Rentschler Field for a non-conference matchup with UConn. North Carolina allowed just 30 yards rushing in a 40-6 blowout of The Citadel on Saturday in a non-lined contest. The Heels’ defense, with nine returning starters from a year ago, forced three turnovers in the victory, including two INTs for Deunta Williams. Coach Butch Davis’ offense wasn’t too shabby either, gaining 357 total yards, including 261 on the ground, its most productive rushing game since 2004. The Huskies went to Ohio on Saturday and scored a 23-16 victory, cashing as four-point road favorites. Despite the loss of RB Donald Brown (first-round NFL pick), UConn’s running game was in midseason form, amassing 259 yards on 49 carries, with Jordan Todman going for 157 yards and a TD, while teammate Andre Dixon chipped in with 100 yards. On the downside, coach Randy Edsall’s team committed four turnovers on Saturday, with QB Zach Frazer leading the way with three INTs after getting picked six times last year in just 83 attempts. These two squads met last season at Chapel Hill, N.C., with the Tar Heels delivering a 38-12 beatdown, easily cashing as eight-point favorites. North Carolina comes in at just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite, but otherwise it is on ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference action and 5-2 against winning teams. UConn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a spread-cover and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 against winning teams, but the Huskies are on positive pointspread streaks of 8-3 at home, 5-2 in September, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 30-14-1 in non-conference action. North Carolina has stayed below the posted total in 10 of 14 games as a road chalk, but otherwise the Heels are on “over” runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on the highway, 4-0 in non-conference action and 8-2 against Big East teams. The Huskies have gone over the number in five of six at home and four of five non-conference games, but the “under” for UConn is on streaks of 7-3 versus ACC teams and 13-6-1 in September. ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE Iowa (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Iowa State (1-0, 0-0 ATS) A week after surviving a scare at home against a Division I-AA opponent, Iowa makes the short trek to Ames, Iowa, for its annual battle with the Cyclones. The Hawkeyes needed two blocked field goals in the waning seconds to hold off Northern Iowa 17-16 in a non-lined home game last Saturday. Iowa actually got outgained 354-329 and managed just 87 rushing yards, but still managed to win its fifth straight game dating to last season. In fact, the Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU in their last eight and 6-2 ATS in lined action since last October. The Cyclones snapped a 10-game losing skid with last week’s 34-17 home win over Division I-AA North Dakota State, with QB Austen Arnaud throwing for 227 yards and two TDs, though the defense surrendered 210 rushing yards. It was the first time since a 17-5 loss at Iowa in Week 3 of last season that Iowa State had given up fewer than 28 points and just the second time in that span that it had allowed less than 34 points. The home team has taken the last five meetings in this annual matchup, but the Cyclones took the money in all five (all as an underdog), cashing in last year’s 17-5 setback as a 13-point underdog. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 against the Hawkeyes, including 4-1 ATS in the last five in Ames. Despite their spread-covering struggles against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-1 on the road and 4-1 as a favorite, but they’re 4-8 ATS in their last 12 as a road chalk. The Cyclones failed to cash in five of their last seven lined games of 2008, but they’re 15-6 ATS in their last 21 on grass and 6-2 ATS in their last eight in September. The under is 4-0 in the last four battles in this rivalry. Also, Iowa is on “under” tears of 17-7-1 overall, 20-7-1 on the road, 13-3 in September, 11-1 in non-conference play, 5-0 versus the Big 12 and 11-5 as a favorite. However, the over is 5-0 in Iowa State’s last five lined contests overall and 5-1 in its last six at home. ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA STATE and UNDER Fresno State (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Wisconsin (1-0, 0-1 ATS) Wisconsin and Fresno State hook up in a non-conference meeting for the second year in a row, with the scene shifting from central California to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. The Bulldogs hammered UC Davis 51-0 in a non-lined season opener last week, finishing with a 511-231 edge in total yards (310-43 on the ground) in snapping a two-game losing skid to end last year. Fresno State cashed easily in their season opener in 2008, whipping Rutgers 24-7 as a 3½-point road underdog, but then went 1-10 ATS the rest of the way. Wisconsin overcame three turnovers and held off Northern Illinois 28-20 a week ago, but failed to cover as a 16½-point home favorite despite outgaining the Huskies 433-274. New QB Scott Tolzien hit on 15 of 20 passes for 257 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two interceptions. The Badgers have won four consecutive regular-season games, but they’ve failed to cover in their last three lined outings. The Badgers jumped out to a 10-0 halftime lead at Fresno last year then held on for a 13-10 victory, cashing as a two-point road favorite despite getting outgained 343-304. The Bulldogs were doomed by three missed field goals in the contest. Fresno State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against Big Ten foes. Also, in addition to its 1-10 ATS slump to end last season, the Bulldogs are in pointspread ruts of 10-29-1 overall, 1-6 on the road, 4-13 against winning teams, 1-5 in September and 0-4 in non-league action. One bright spot: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road pup. Wisconsin is on ATS slides of 7-16 overall (0-3 last three), 1-4 at home, 3-7 as a double-digit favorite and 2-5 in September, but the Badgers are 13-6 ATS in their past 19 non-conference affairs. Fresno is on “over” streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 7-2 in non-conference games and 6-0 on artificial turf. The over is also 7-3 in Wisconsin’s last 10 on turf and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite. ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER South Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS) at (21) Georgia (0-1 SU and ATS) The Bulldogs return home after a disappointing season-opening loss at Oklahoma State, and awaiting them will be SEC rival South Carolina. Georgia marched down the field on the opening drive in Stillwater last Saturday and scored a touchdown, then got stymied from there, falling to the Cowboys 24-10 as a 5½-point road underdog. Senior QB Joe Cox, replacing NFL No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, played despite having flu-like symptoms and went 15-for-30 for 162 yards with a TD and an INT. Cox and the offense produced just 257 total yards. South Carolina rode a stifling defense to a 7-3 upset win at North Carolina State last Thursday, prevailing as a five-point road underdog. The victory snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide for the Gamecocks, who gained just 256 yards but limited N.C. State to just 133 yards and 11 first downs. The winner has covered in each of South Carolina’s last nine games. These teams meet in the second week of the season every year, and Georgia is 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS in the last seven battles. Last year, the Bulldogs earned a hard-hitting 14-7 victory, pushing as a seven-point road chalk. The visitor has won the last three meetings and is 6-2 SU in the last eight (5-2-1 ATS). Finally, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four, and six of the last eight meetings were decided by seven points or less. Despite last week’s upset of North Carolina State, South Carolina is still just 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog. As for the Bulldogs, they’re in ATS slumps of 2-8 overall (1-5 last six), 1-5 at home, 1-6 as a favorite and 1-6 in SEC action. The under has hit in 12 consecutive Georgia-South Carolina clashes, with the last five battles in Athens, Ga., staying low. Also, the under is 24-8 in Georgia’s last 32 September contests and 6-1-1 in South Carolina’s last eight in September. Finally, both teams stayed way under the total in their Week 1 games. ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and UNDER UCLA (1-0 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (1-0 SU and ATS) After an impressive performance in coach Lane Kiffin’s debut, Tennessee now looks to exact some revenge on UCLA when the two powerhouses meet at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. The Bruins spotted lowly San Diego State a quick 14-3 lead last Saturday then turned on the jets and cruised to a 33-14 victory, barely covering as an 18½-point home favorite, thanks to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown late in the third quarter, the final score of the contest. UCLA finished with 359 yards and outgained the Aztecs on the ground by a 144-39 margin, and the secondary came up with three interceptions. Tennessee torched Western Kentucky 63-7, easily cashing as a 29½-point home favorite in Kiffin’s debut. QB Jonathan Crompton was sharp, going 21 of 28 for 233 yards and five TDs, but he also threw two picks. The Vols piled up 657 total yards while surrendering just 83. The Volunteers thoroughly outplayed UCLA for 3½ quarters in Pasadena, Calif., last year, but still lost 27-24 in overtime as a seven-point road favorite. Tennessee gave up a go-ahead score with 27 seconds left, but managed to get a tying 47-yard field goal as time expired to force the extra session, with the Bruins getting a 42-yard field goal to win it. The Vols lost despite forcing four interceptions and despite having a 366-288 yardage edge (177-29 in rushing). UCLA is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with the Vols going back to 1994, covering three times as an underdog and once in a pick-em contest. Additionally, the Bruins are on pointspread rolls of 12-5 overall, 14-8 in non-conference road games, 22-7 as an underdog, 5-0 against the SEC, 14-5 in September and 27-11 versus winning teams. Tennessee has won and covered three straight dating to the end of last year, and the Vols are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home chalk and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when laying between 3½ and 10 points. However, they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five against the Pac-10. The over is 4-0 in UCLA’s last four non-conference games and 7-1 in their last eight in September. Otherwise, though, the Bruins carry “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 13-4-1 against winning teams and 8-2-1 after a non-cover. Likewise, Tennessee is on “under” streaks of 17-5-1 overall, 35-16-3 at Neyland Stadium, 8-2-1 as a favorite and 14-3 when playing on grass. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams going back to 1991, with the lone “over” occurring last year in Pasadena. ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER Purdue (1-0 SU and ATS) at Oregon (0-1 SU and ATS) The Ducks look to put a tumultuous week behind them when they entertain Purdue in a non-conference game under the lights at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. Not only did Oregon get pushed around in last Thursday’s 19-8 loss at 14th-ranked Boise State as a 3½-point road underdog, but the Ducks lost star running back LeGarrette Blount for the remainder of the season. Blount was suspended by first-year coach Chip Kelly for punching a Boise State player after the game ended. Oregon’s explosive offense, which averaged 42 points and nearly 280 rushing yards per game last year, was limited to one touchdown and 152 total yards (31 rushing), while the defense allowed 361 yards (164 rushing). Unlike Kelly with Oregon, new Boilermakers coach Danny Hope had a successful debut, leading his team to a 52-31 rout of Toledo, cashing as a 10-point home favorite. The normally pass-happy Boilermakers had 315 of their 535 total yards on the ground, and while new QB Joey Elliott threw for 220 yards and three scores, he also tossed three INTs. Also the defense allowed 423 passing yards. Oregon went to Purdue a year ago and earned a 32-26 double-overtime victory, but came up just short as a seven-point road favorite. The teams combined for 911 yards of offense, with the winning score ironically coming on Blount’s 3-yard TD run after Purdue missed a winning field goal on the final play in regulation. Purdue has now covered in three straight games since last season and is on additional ATS upticks of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10 , 4-0-1 as an underdog of more than 10 points and 5-1-1 in non-conference roadies, but the Boilers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine on artificial turf. The Ducks had a four-game SU and a three-game ATS winning streak snapped with the loss at Boise. However, Oregon remains on pointspread surges 13-6 in September, 7-3 against the Big Ten, 15-6 as a home favorite and 12-3 when laying more than 10 points at home. The under is 5-2 in Purdue’s last seven road games, but the over is 10-4-2 in its last 16 non-league contests (all in September). Conversely, despite staying well under the total at Boise State last Thursday, the Ducks are on “over” stretches of 4-0-1 at home, 7-0-1 after a non-cover, 16-5-2 in September and 4-1-1 versus Big Ten competition. ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE (18) Notre Dame (1-0 SU and ATS) at Michigan (1-0 SU and ATS) The Fighting Irish and Wolverines hope to capitalize on the momentum gained from easy season-opening victories, with Notre Dame traveling to the Big House in Ann Arbor for this annual September tussle. Notre Dame throttled Nevada 35-0 as a 14½-point home favorite last Saturday, with junior QB Jimmy Clausen going 15-for-18 for 315 yards and four TDs – including one from 70 yards and another from 88 yards – in helping the Irish build a 28-0 halftime lead. While Clausen and the offense (510 total yards) were sharp, the defense stole the show, holding one of the nation’s most prolific offenses to 307 yards, forcing three turnovers and posting Notre Dame’s first shutout since 2002. Michigan put aside some off-the-field turmoil and manhandled Western Michigan 31-7 as a 13-point home favorite in Week 1. The Wolverines, who lost seven of their final eight games (SU and ATS) in coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season with the team in 2008, had a 439-301 edge in total offense, and new quarterback Tate Forcier was on the mark (13-for-20, 179 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs). The Irish ended a two-game SU and ATS slide to Michigan with last year’s 35-17 victory as a one-point home underdog. The Wolverines dominated from a yardage perspective (388-260) but committed six turnovers, including a fumble that was returned 35 yards for a score in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and the visitor has won eight of the last 10 battles outright (6-4 ATS). The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Michigan’s last 11 games, 8-0 in Notre Dame’s last eight and 7-0 in the last seven years in this rivalry. The Irish are on ATS runs of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite and 6-0 as a road chalk. On the flip side, despite the easy cover against Western Michigan a week ago, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 1-4 at home, 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as an underdog, 0-4 after a SU win and 3-8 on artificial turf. The under is 4-1 in the last five Notre Dame-Michigan battles in the Big House. The under is also 4-1-1 in the Irish’s last six overall, 11-2 in their last 13 on the road, 5-0 in their last five on artificial turf, 4-1 in Michigan’s last five on turf and 8-2 in Michigan’s last 10 in September. ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME and UNDER
(16) TCU (0-0 SU and ATS) at Virginia (0-1, 0-0 ATS) Coming off one of its most embarrassing losses in school history, Virginia now has to deal with the 16th-ranked Horned Frogs, who make their season debut at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. After closing out 2008 with four straight defeats (1-3 ATS), the Cavaliers christened 2009 with a shocking 26-14 home loss to William & Mary in a non-lined game, their first loss to a Division I-AA opponent since 1986. Virginia held a 14-10 lead late in the first half but failed to score from there and got outgained 309-268 while committing a whopping seven turnovers, including three interceptions by QB Jameel Sewell. TCU (11-2, 8-4 ATS) posted its third 11-win season in the last four years in 2008 and finished ranked No. 7 in the national polls after knocking off then-undefeated Boise State 17-16 in the Poinsettia Bowl, though the Frogs failed to cover as a three-point favorite in that contest. TCU fielded the top-ranked defense in the country last year, giving up just 11.3 points, 170.7 passing yards and 47.1 rushing yards per game. The Horned Frogs’ only losses came at Oklahoma (35-10) and at Utah (13-10 in the final seconds), two teams that finished ranked No. 5 and No. 2, respectively. Coach Gary Patterson, who enters his ninth season at TCU, has to replace seven starters from last year’s top-ranked defense, but his top offensive weapons return, including dual-threat QB Andy Dalton (59 percent completion rate, 2,242 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 432 rushing yards, 8 TDs). These schools last met in the 1994 Independence Bowl, with Virginia prevailing 20-10 but failing to cover as an 11-point favorite. The Horned Frogs have failed to get the money in four of their last five road games, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 25-10 as a favorite, 6-1 when laying more than 10 points and 8-4 in non-conference games. Virginia is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 lined non-conference games, 0-4 ATS in its last fourt against the Mountain West Conference and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 in September. However, the Cavaliers are on pointspread upticks of 5-2 as a pup, 16-5 as a home underdog and 4-1 when catching more than 10 points at home. TCU is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road and 15-7 as a favorite, while the Cavs are on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 8-2 after a SU defeat. ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER Houston (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (5) Oklahoma State (1-0 SU and ATS) Oklahoma State looks to avoid getting caught in a letdown when it hosts Houston a week after knocking off 13th-ranked Georgia. The Cowboys spotted Georgia a quick 7-0 lead last Saturday and didn’t get on the scoreboard until less than three minutes remained in the first half, but they took control in the second half and scored a 24-10 victory as a 5½-point home favorite. Star QB Zac Robinson tossed two TD passes and didn’t get intercepted, but he was otherwise pedestrian in going 11-for-22 for just 135 yards while rushing for 39 yards on nine carries. Oklahoma State’s much-maligned defense stole the show, limiting the Bulldogs to just 257 total yards and forcing three turnovers. Houston throttled Northwestern State 55-7 in a non-lined home game last week, piling up 538 yards and allowing just 263 despite having the ball for just 23½ minutes. QB Case Keenum was sensational, going 23-for-30 for 359 yards with four TDs and no picks. These teams met in Week 2 last year and the Cowboys cruised to a 56-37 victory as a 15½-point home favorite. In 2006, the Cougars earned a 34-25 home win over OSU, cashing as a 2½-point home chalk. The Cougars lost their first three Division I-A games last year, including the Oklahoma State blowout followed a pair of three-point defeats, but since then, they’re 7-2 SU (4-4 ATS in lined action). While Houston has covered in five of its last seven as a road pup of more than 10 points, it is otherwise in pointspread slumps of 5-12 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-4 in non-league contests, 1-4 in September and 2-9 after a SU win. Oklahoma State snapped a four-game ATS slide with last week’s spread-cover. The Cowboys are on ATS surges of 7-2 at home, 42-20-2 as a favorite, 7-0 as a home chalk, 22-5 when laying double digits, 10-1 as a double-digit home favorite, 5-1 in non-conference play, 8-1 on artificial turf and 4-0 in September. Houston is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in September, 5-2 as an underdog and 8-3 as a double-digit pup, while the Cowboys carry “over” trends of 29-10 at home, 9-3 as a home chalk and 5-1 in September. Finally, both meetings between these schools this decade have eclipsed the posted total. ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and OVER Vanderbilt (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (11) LSU (1-0, 0-1 ATS) After a lackluster season-opening victory at Washington, LSU returns to Tiger Stadium looking to knock off the Commodores for the sixth consecutive time in an SEC clash. The Tigers fell behind 7-0 five minutes into the game at Washington last Saturday and never led by more than two touchdowns, but still prevailed 31-23, never threatening to cover as a 17½-point road favorite. LSU’s defense got torched for 478 yards (321 passing) while the offense produced just 321 yards, and the Tigers had the football for barely 23 minutes. Vanderbilt cruised to a 45-0 non-lined home victory over Western Carolina, finishing with a ridiculous 620-125 advantage in total offense, including 433-51 on the ground. However, if you take away a 16-14 upset win over Boston College in last year’s Music City Bowl, the Commodores have lost six of their last seven to Division I-A competition (2-5 ATS). These teams last met in 2005, with LSU cruising to a 34-6 win as a 17-point road favorite. Prior to that, however, Vanderbilt had cashed in four of five meetings against the Tigers (all as an underdog). The last time the Commodores beat LSU outright was in 1990, a 24-21 home win as a 17-point pup, and Vanderbilt hasn’t won in Baton Rouge since 1951. Vandy is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, but otherwise it is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 on the road, 8-2 as an underdog, 14-4 as a road pup, 9-2 as a double-digit ‘dog and 13-3 in September. LSU has failed to cover in seven consecutive regular-season games and carries further ATS downturns of 5-19 overall, 0-7 at home, 0-5 as a favorite, 1-10 as a double-digit chalk, 7-19-1 in SEC action and 1-5 in September. The Commodores are on “under” runs of 18-6-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1-1 in September and 13-3-1 in SEC play. On the flip side, LSU has topped the total in 16 of 22 overall, nine of 13 at home, 11 of 16 in September and 13 of 18 as a favorite. Finally, the last six series meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total. ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT