vegas-runner | NFL Total Sun, 11/22/09 - 1:00 PM ¶ƒ triple-dime bet 419 SEA / 420 MIN Under 46.5 bodog Analysis: *** NFL "TRUE STEAM" 3* GAME OF THE WEEK *** ("11-3" the L3 Weeks..."69% ATS" Overall) This is a classic example of the Outfits seeing so much Value in a Bet, that they didn't even see the need to allow the "Betting Public" to force the Bookmakers, to adjust the line...and ultimately get an even better Total to go Under, than what they bet it at... Bottom Line, there is no doubt in any Bookmakers mind...of what side the Betting Public will be on...for the Total of this Match-Up...And if they are 100% sure that they will receive a lot of action on the Over as we approach, and on game-day...you can rest assured that the Wiseguys were aware of this as well...But yet they still went ahead and took this position, which guarantees us that it's a "TRUE STEAM" Bet... More importantly, after speaking to some of those "runners" who actually move "Steam"...They all agreed that fortunately, the books receive so much more Public Money, than they do Wiseguy Money, on the NFL...that their respective Outfits were able to take a significant position on this wager... This Total Opened at "47"...which is actually one of a handful of "Key Totals", due to the fact that there are plenty of combinations of Final Scores, that equal 47...And the books do not like coming off these Key Totals, anymore than they do the "Key Spreads"...So you can be sure that when they do, there is plenty of "Steam" behind it... And that is the case for this game...Where the books went ahead and opened it up at 47, and were immediately forced to adjust down to 46... Fortunately for us, the "TRUE STEAM" Bet that I believe offers up the most betting Value, based on my own Ratings/Lines...is in the NFL...Because as I stated above, the public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...and therefore, as the public begins unloading on the Over...we will still have no problem finding a great line... Let's go ahead and bet the UNDER 46.5 in this Match-Up...as our very 1st NFL "TRUE STEAM" BET OF THE WEEK...VR
Dover picks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- nfl arizona -7 4 units atl +7 2 units gb -6 1 unit det -3 1 unit ari/stl under 47 1 unit no/tb over 50 1 unit pitt/kc under 41 1 unit
1:00p Matt Fargo PICK:Jacksonville Jaguars: -8.5 () / 4 units **4** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **68% RUN** The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don’t wait two days into the week to do it. Buffalo was absolutely annihilated in the fourth quarter last week in Tennessee and that certainly finalized the coaching decision as Jauron lost control of that sideline. Now the Bills need to prepare for another road game on a very short week of planning and this just isn’t going to happen. A coaching change mid-season tells us one main thing and that is that the team has called it quits. In other sports, we can sometimes use the coaching change as motivation but not here as there are too few played in a season and too few games remaining. If Buffalo was facing a team that was in a similar position of fighting for a draft pick, this pick would probably not transpire. However, Jacksonville has gotten itself right back into the playoff race. Once left for dead after a 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Seattle, the Jaguars have won three of their last four games and even though the results were close, by a combined eight points, they outgained the opposition in all of those games which make the wins actually more substantial because other variables came into play. Jacksonville is now 5-4 on the season and just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Jaguars are tied with other teams so they will need help but they need to take care of business and they know this. The remaining schedule is very tough with the exception of a couple of games so they cannot falter here. Buffalo has been outgained on the ground in seven straight games no thanks to a rushing defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 173 ypg and 5.1 ypc. The Bills are the only team in football giving up over half of a first down per carry on the ground. Can Jacksonville exploit this Buffalo rushing defense? I’d say so as Maurice Jones-Drew is fifth in the NFL with 860 yards and he has had 123 or more rushing yards in three of his last four games. On the other side Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call at quarterback over Trent Edwards but that isn’t going to do much for the offense. The Bills will no doubt try and pound the ball and while the Jaguars have allowed a good amount of yards on the ground, they are allowing just 4.3 ypc.The passing defense has been the liability but Buffalo cannot exploit it with the league’s 29th ranked offense. The rushing edge for Jacksonville also puts it into a great angle. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 150 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +13.5 ppg. This is not a must win for the Jaguars but it is as close to it as possible as a loss would be detrimental. Even with the recent personnel changes for the Bills, this line has not done a whole lot. 4* Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00p Matt Fargo PICK:New York Giants: -6.5 () / 4 units The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York’s bye week. All told, the Giants week off could not have come at a better time. Atlanta continues to struggle on the road. The Falcons are 1-4 away from home this season and they have lost the first three in this stretch of four road games in five weeks. Some of the losses have been close but this team is still young and is having trouble away from the dome. Of the nine games played this season, Atlanta has had only one really good game and that was at San Francisco but that was an aberration. The Falcons have been outgained in five of the other eight games and in the other three games where they won the yardage differential, those totals were by 22, 5 and 20 yards. As you can tell, it has been not even close to dominant. Part of the problem was last year’s savior quarterback Matt Ryan. He is playing decent but his passer rating is only 78.8 on the season as he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and tossed 12 interceptions. That is one more interception thrown than all of last season and now he will not have main running back Michael Turner to help out. Despite the recent struggles, the Giants are still ranked first in the NFL in total defense. They have been average at getting to the quarterback and Atlanta has done a great job in protecting Ryan and it is imperative for New York to get pressure to help out the secondary. Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan probably will utilize lots of man and zone blitz schemes from all areas of the field to keep Ryan out of his comfort zone. On the other side, the Falcons defense is struggling as it is 24th in the NFL in total defense and they have been particularly weak against the run, allowing 130.3 ypg which is 25th in the league. The Giants running game is ranked seventh in the NFL so they will be able to take advantage and get the offense going once again as it has struggled to put up points the last three games. The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl under head coach Tom Coughlin so playing a bad defense can be exploited. Also they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they outrushed the opponent by 75 or more yards. This should be the perfect spot for the Giants to back to its winning ways. 4* New York Giants 4:15p Matt Fargo PICK:Oakland Raiders: +9.0 () / 4 units Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 4* Oakland Raiders 4:15p Matt Fargo PICK:New England Patriots: -10.5 () / 5 units I’ve been reading numerous articles pertaining to the Bill Belichick call against the Colts where he decided to go for it on fourth down instead of punting it. I for one thought it was a smart call and a good call as he was trying to win the game right there and then with his offense that had not been stopped all night. There are debates all over the joint and there are opinions that the defense was called out by Belichick saying that he had no choice because he had no trust in his defense and that this call could be a season ending one. Both of those answers are wrong and if anything, this is going to make this team even better. Had the Patriots won that game, this game would be a lot tougher call but coming off a loss, I will take my chances with the Patriots at home. Even bettering those chances is the fact that it is a revenge spot against a hated rival who is completely unraveling. The Jets took out New England in Week Two as they did not allow a touchdown in that game. After that came a win against Tennessee but it has been all downhill since as New York has lost five of its last six games. Four of those came by five points or fewer so it can be argued that the Jets record could be a lot better and I will not disagree with that. However, when these losses pile up, it makes it tougher to recover from and this is the last place that the Jets want to go right now to try and turn their season around. This is the first road test since October 12th when they traveled to Miami as since then there have been three home games, a bye and a trip to lowly Oakland. Watching networks like ESPN really solidifies the fact that people are more concerned about controversy than about reality. This Belichick decision has been the top story since it happened and quite honest, it is already getting old. The big storyline surrounding it is how it will affect the Patriots going forward and if there is one team in the NFL that can rebound and actually improve from it, it’s the Patriots. I certainly expect that here and with the division lead now just two games over Miami, New England knows it cannot slip up especially with a game at New Orleans on deck. The Patriots are 5-0 at home and with four of the final six games being on the road, a slip up here could be devastating. The Patriots are 4-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top ten and that one loss happened to come against the Jets. This game has been circled since that September 20th loss and not only because of the loss itself but because of what was said. The first time around for these two divisional rivals, the Jets relentlessly pressured Tom Brady and came out with the win. You can be sure that this game plan will not change, but the Patriots should be better equipped to handle the overload blitz and give to Brady enough protection to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. We have to remember that the first meeting was only the second game back for Brady after missing all of last season with a knee injury. It is safe to say he is now fully back as his passer rating of 100.6 is fifth in the NFL and four of his last six games have seen a passer rating of 100 or higher after not putting up an average rating of 79.3 through his first three games. His 53.1 rating against the Jets was easily the worst of the season and he no doubt knows it and he wants redemption probably more than anyone. The Patriots have a pretty bad recent record as double-digit favorites however they are 1-1 ATS this season with the lone loss coming by a half-point. Most of those losses came in late 2007 when New England was hit with some huge overinflated lines during its undefeated regular season. It closed 1-8 ATS that season. Coming off a loss, there are not many people I’d rather be behind than Belichick or Brady as the Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. 5* New England Patriots 8:20p Matt Fargo PICK:Philadelphia Eagles: -3.0 () / 4 units **4** NFL PRIMETIME ON NBC ***13-6 RUN*** The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago’s last three wins have come against the Browns, Lions and Seahawks and those three teams are a combined 5-22 so that is not exactly the best résumé. How the Bears defeated the Steelers back in Week Two is beyond me. Philadelphia is ninth in total defense and 12th in scoring defense and the Bears have struggled against the upper end of the league hierarchy. Jay Cutler in particular has had a rough time but his offensive line is just as much to blame. Chicago is 30th in the NFL in rushing offense and that comes down to the execution of the offensive line. That line will face a plethora of blitzes from the Eagles who love bringing pressure and that is what gets Cutler in trouble. The Eagles outgained San Diego by 131 yards in that game but their redzone offense was horrific as they had to settle for three field goals in their first three drives inside the San Diego 20-yard line. This has been an issue all season as the Eagles are 11th worst in the league in touchdown percentage in the redzone. The good news is that the Bears have the second worst redzone defense in the NFL as they have allowed touchdowns in 70 percent of the possessions inside the 20-yard line. Philadelphia will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as he got another concussion and was limited against San Diego. That is not ideal but the Bears defense is not playing well against the team that can take advantage and the Eagles can do exactly that. The Eagles fall into a simple yet very effective angle. Play against home underdogs or that are only averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being a potent +9.2 ppg. Both teams are struggling right now but Philadelphia is in a much better position and the struggles are things that can actually be taken care of this week. 4* Philadelphia Eagles All confirmed.
Teddy Covers > 11/22/09 NFL Seattle +11 (419)** > 11/22/09 NFL Washington +11 (421)** > 11/22/09 NFL Philadelphia -3 (433)
Sixth Sense YTD 30-27 +0.90% (Not counting Thursday night loss with Carolina) 3% SAN FRANCISCO +6.5 3% SEATTLE +10.5 3% NY JETS +10.5
DOCS SPORTS 5 Unit Play. #114 Take San Francisco +7 over Green Bay (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Play of the Week. The 49ers have played the NFC North tough this season, beating the Bears last week and only a fluke play kept them from beating the Vikings in Week 3 of the season. The 49ers are catching the Packers at the right time since they are coming off an emotional victory over Dallas and must play four days later in Detroit on Thanksgiving. San Francisco will enter this game with three days extra rest since they played on Nov.12. Expect another low scoring game and getting around a touchdown is just too good to pass up. I just do not believe that the Packers defense can play at the level that they did against Dallas one week ago. Dallas really threw in the towel when Marc Colombo went down with an injury last week. San Francisco takes this game down to the wire and we will come out on top with whoever emerges victorious. Green Bay 20, San Francisco 17. 4 Unit Play. #122 Take Over 46 in Atlanta @ New York (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Totals Play. We used the over with the Falcons last week and will ride this horse again in this critical game for both teams Sunday at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, NJ. The Falcons have trouble stopping teams and expect QB Manning to pick apart the 28th-rated pass defense. Atlanta will also be without Michael Turner, who is out with an ankle injury. Without him expect the Falcons to pass more and the clock will be stopped a lot more, setting up a nice play with the over. The Falcons have gone over five of their last six games and this one will follow suit as well. New York 37, Atlanta 17. 4 Unit Play. #127 Take San Diego -3 over Denver (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Chargers have caught the Broncos in the standings after trailing them by three games three weeks ago. Now they have a chance to put them in their rear view mirror with a victory this Sunday at Invesco Field in Denver, CO. The Broncos started off 6-0 and now have lost three straight games and a loss here could bury them. QB Orton will likely play in this game, but I do not think he will be able to turn the tide back to a favorable direction. Denver got a kick return and a punt return for a touchdown in the first meeting and that will not happen in this game. QB Rivers has played outstanding since his loss to Denver with a 9-3 touchdown to interception ratio. The Chargers take back the division and we collect big in the process as well. San Diego 24, Denver 14. 4 Unit Play. #135 Take Tennessee +5 over Houston (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans have righted the ship and will enter this AFC South battle having won three straight games to improve to 3-6 on the season. In those three victories the Titans have run the ball for an average of over 200 yards per game. Tennessee has covered against Houston in five of their last six meetings and getting over a field goal is too good to pass up. QB Young does not put up impressive stats but he does win ball games and that is what they quarterback position is all about. Houston is coming off a bye and expect them to be a little rust early in the game much like the Minnesota Vikings showed last week against Detroit. Tennessee gets out to an early lead and hangs on for the victory winning for the fourth time in their last four games. Tennessee 28, Houston 27.
Strike Point Sports NFL Plays 7-Unit Play. #431 Take San Diego (-3) over Denver (4:15 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 20) This game is huge for the Chargers. While Denver is the team slipping, it's pretty much the way everyone thought they would play to begin the season. Kyle Orton very well could miss this game because of torn ankle ligaments and Chris Simms was pretty inept last week in his replacement. Right now Philip Rivers is playing great football, the Chargers defense looks as good as they have all year and LT is beginning to produce on the ground. Forget about revenge from the first meeting this year. San Diego still needs this game more than Denver because they trail in the division. Chargers keep it rolling in the right direction and make another step towards the top of the division.
Ferringo NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS 5-Unit Play. Take #433 Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week. 3-Unit Play. Take #414 Baltimore (+1) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 2-Unit Play. Take #409 Buffalo (+9) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 1-Unit Play. Take #430 Oakland (+9.5) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) This week's totals: 3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 45.0 N.Y. Jets at New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 42.5 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Arizona at St. Louis (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.0 Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.5 Seattle at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.5 Washington at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #433 Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) AND Take #420 Minnesota (-3.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) 1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #411 Pittsburgh (-3) over Kansas City (1 p.m.) AND Take #423 Tampa Bay (+18.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m.)
Diceituponline - Fireman's NFL Plays Week 11 NFL: Eagles -2.5 = 15 Dimes NY Giants -6 = 10 Dimes Pitt - 10 = 10 Dimes Dallas - 11 = 10 Dimes 3 Team Teaser = 20 Dimes Pitt PK (Tease down 10) Dallas -1 (Tease down 10) Minn -.5 (Tease down 10)
Vegas Vick Eagles (-3) over BEARS National spotlight. Back in his hometown. What more could Donovan McNabb ask for? Maybe another run for him and his mom with a Campbell's Soup commercial? Or, a stinkin' win. At 5-4, the Birds could really use a W. It's not panic time because the NFC East is still kinda bunched up, with Dallas holding only a one-game lead. McNabb's air numbers last week bordered on the ridiculous. He was 35-for-55 for 450 yards and two touchdowns, which was wonderful for all the fantasy players, but 29 net yards rushing ain't gonna make it in this league. Fortunately, this is Chicago and Jay Cutler is at QB, so we don't have to worry all that much. Cutler threw five interceptions last week, and the Bears have covered only six of their last 18. The Eagles have won four of the last five times out in the Windy City, and we're expecting that trend to continue. Cardinals (-9) over RAMS Another homecoming of sorts. Kurt Warner spent the majority of his career in St. Louis, leading the Rams to a Super Bowl win over Tennessee, and since he left, has a few sweet wins over his ex-mates. The first time Warner faced the Rams, in St. Louis, was back in 2005, and Arizona posted a 38-28 victory. In 2006, the Cardinals beat the Rams again in St. Louis, even though Matt Leinart was doing the QB chores. In 2007 the Cards put up a 34-31 W in St. Louis, and last season, Arizona belted the Rams in St. Louis, 34-13. So that's a perfect 4-0 as either a starter or backup against his old team. And speaking of perfection, the Cards have rolled out to a 4-0 spread record on the road here in 2009, and have covered 10 of the last 14 away from home. Throw in the Rams ultra-disgusting 1-18 straight up record the last 19 times out, and this selection jumps right into the best-bet category. COWBOYS (-11) over Redskins Can't get uglier for Dallas than it did last week in a 17-7 loss at Green Bay. But the Cowboys are back home in their billion-dollar stadium, where, after the opening loss to the Giants, they have mashed the opposition by an average of 17 points per game. The 'Boys beat Carolina, 21-7, whipped Atlanta, 37-21, and rocked Seattle, 38-17. And considering the fact that Washington has covered only three of the last 17 (18 percent), Dallas is the obvious side. PATRIOTS (-10) over Jets And we thought there was no crying in football. Apparently, Jets head coach Rex Ryan burst into tears this week while talking to his club, but could really cry a river after this game. New England is gonna be really ticked off after blowing a 31-14 lead against the Colts last week. And the Pats don't like to lose. Coming off a loss, the Patriots are 9-0 since 2006, and have won by an average of 24 points. More than enough to cover this spot. Titans (+5) over TEXANS We have been riding Tennessee for the last two and don't plan to get off the money train right now. Coming into the bye week, the Titans were 0-6 and going nowhere. After the bye, Vince Young took over for Kerry Collins, and Tennessee has won three in a row, covered all three, winning by an average of 16 points per game. And not to belabor the homecoming angle, but guess where Mr. Young was born? Yup, Houston. GIANTS (-6) over Falcons All the Giants have to do is remember their 5-0 start, remember that they have won nine of the last 13 at home, and that Atlanta has dropped four of the last five on the road. RAIDERS (+9) over Bengals Cincy beat Pittsburgh back in September, and failed to cover the following week against Cleveland. The Bengals beat Pitt again last week, and will fail to cover this week against Oakland. Book it. LIONS (-3) over Browns This game is blacked out. Too bad it wasn't canceled. JAGUARS (-9) over Bills Does it really matter who coaches Buffalo? Short answer is no. Jax by at least two dozen. Steelers (-10) over CHIEFS On a 1-16 run at home, there's no way Kaycee comes close to Pittsburgh. Colts (-1) over RAVENS Indy might have a little Patriot-lag after that spectacular win, so we'll just keep the play small. 49ers (+6) over PACKERS The 'Niners know how to stay close, especially on the road, where they have a 3-0-1 spread record. VIKINGS (-10) over Seahawks Seattle has only two wins in its last 15 games on the road, so go Purple. BUCCANEERS (+11) over Saints Could a 9-0 team be scuffling? New Orleans is on an 0-3 spread run, so maybe it's a miniscuffle. Chargers (-3) over BRONCOS Phil Simms? Yes. Chris Simms, No!
Pointwise Phone Service 4* NY GIANTS 3* PITTS, WASHINGTON, UNDER IN DETR/CLEV GAME 2* OAKLAND, ARIZONA, NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON The Black Cat record is 38-40 Buffalo +8.5 Tampa Bay +11 Cinn -9.5 Rams +9.5 Indy -2 Pitt -10 Atlanta +6.5 New England -10.5 Cappers Access Bears Chiefs Jets
DAVE HOCHMAN 423 Saints OV 51 413 Colts -1 436 Texans -5 ATS Weekly Blitz: 3* New England 31-14 3* SF / GB over 40 2* Buff/Jax Over 42 2* Indy 28-20 2* Detroit 17-10 2* NY Giants 30-21 John morrison nfl system plays 11/22 >> Official NFL System Plays Note: It is okay to wager on Detroit at the ML and lace w:st="on">Clevelandlace> at the Point Spread! 11/22 Detroit [A] (Bet on the Money Line) 11/22 Cleveland [A] (Bet on the Point Spread) 11/22 New York Giants (Bet on the Money Line)
Diceituponline - Hammer's NFL Picks (11/22) NFL Picks (week 11) 10 Dimes: Miami Dolphins +3.5 --> WIN 10 Dimes: Detroit -3 20 Dimes: Indianapolis -1 10 Dimes: Indy/Baltimore Over 44 15 Dimes: Philadelphia -3 Jon Russo 4 Units Bengals -9 1/2 4 Units 49ers +6 1/2 4 Units Eagles -3 3 Units Colts -1 3 Units Saints -11 DCI NFL Sunday, November 22, 2009 Indianapolis 21, BALTIMORE 18 DALLAS 25, Washington 10 Cleveland vs. DETROIT: TOO CLOSE TO CALL GREEN BAY 24, San Francisco 21 JACKSONVILLE 25, Buffalo 15 Pittsburgh 23, KANSAS CITY 13 MINNESOTA 32, Seattle 17 N.Y. GIANTS 26, Atlanta 24 New Orleans 38, TAMPA BAY 20 Arizona 35, ST. LOUIS 12 San Diego 25, DENVER 21 NEW ENGLAND 34, N.Y. Jets 13 Cincinnati 25, OAKLAND 6 Philadelphia 23, CHICAGO 22 Monday, November 23, 2009 HOUSTON 28, Tennessee 20
NFL Dunkel SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22 Game 407-408: Cleveland at Detroit Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.543; Detroit 120.318 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5; 35 Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 38 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Under Game 409-410: Buffalo at Jacksonville Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.031; Jacksonville 129.807 Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6; 40 Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 9; 43 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under Game 411-412: Pittsburgh at Kansas City Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.675; Kansas City 126.321 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 40 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Over Game 413-414: Indianapolis at Baltimore Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 141.294; Baltimore 142.210 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 47 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 44 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Over Game 415-416: Atlanta at NY Giants Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.138; NY Giants 134.398 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 43 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 46 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); Under Game 417-418: San Francisco at Green Bay Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 128.529; Green Bay 135.589 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 40 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under Game 419-420: Seattle at Minnesota Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; Minnesota 137.314 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 46 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under Game 421-422: Washington at Dallas Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.798; Dallas 138.917 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12; 47 Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10 1/2); Over Game 423-424: New Orleans at Tampa Bay Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.560; Tampa Bay 131.674 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 48 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+11 1/2); Under Game 425-426: Arizona at St. Louis Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 132.391; St. Louis 123.721 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick St. Louis (+9 1/2); Over Game 427-428: NY Jets at New England Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 133.917; New England 145.321 Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Under Game 429-430: Cincinnati at Oakland Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 132.104; Oakland 124.067 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8; 40 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10; 36 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10); Over Game 431-432: San Diego at Denver Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.307; Denver 136.545 Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 39 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A Game 433-434: Philadelphia at Chicago Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.920; Chicago 129.547 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over Bob Valentino 50 DIME: BALTIMORE RAVENS Tuley the Tout 11/22 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Bills +9 vs. Jaguars...Jags shouldn't be favored by this much over anyone (see two weeks ago vs. Chiefs) Chiefs +10 vs. Steelers...we're still seeing inflated lines even with dogs barking lately *Ravens +1 vs. Colts...Colts moved to favoritism from earlier in week, I like that, gonna keep fading Colts Falcons +7 vs. Giants...we got the +7 we wanted...Turner out but so is Pierce *49ers +6.5 vs. Packers...not sure we'll get 7 here, but will still play as this should be low-scoring tight game *Seahawks +11 vs. Vikings...Seattle can actually win this if they don't beat themselves, grab 11 before it disappears Redskins +11 vs. Cowboys...more inflation, though I don't like backing this Skins team Bears +3 vs. Eagles...change in plans, wait in case we get 3.5 as it's heading that way *Titans +5 vs. Texans...Tennessee playing like last year; Texans still not reliable as fave Cappers Access Bears Chiefs Jets BRYAN LEONARD'S AFC SUPER PLAY New York at New England The Jets are fading fast after taking care of the Patriots 16-9 in the earlier meeting. New York has dropped 5 of their last 6 games with the only victory coming against the Raiders. They have lost two key cogs along the defensive line which has really slowed down their pass rush. Offensively New York has struggled a bit against questionable defenses. In fact, if you look at whom the Jets have played you can make a case that the offense is actually worse than the numbers would show. The Patriots are off an embarrassing loss last week to the Colts. They had that game firmly in their grasp and let it slip away. Now they are back home looking to avenge the earlier loss to the hated Jets. Wes Welker didn't play in that meeting and his absence was a major reason why Brady struggled. That and it being his second game back since his season ending injury. New England has been money in the bank off a loss under Belichick. This year alone they covered the spread by margins of 12 and 50 points after suffering defeats. New York has played the Patriots tough the past few seasons but this is a game in which New England will run up the score if given the chance. Remember that 59-0 victory over Tennessee earlier this season. PLAY NEW ENGLAND
Al DeMarco on NY Daily News Live Best Bet-Minnesota Vikings (-11) over Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots (-10) over NY Jets New York Giants (-6) over Atlanta Falcons Detroit Lions (-3) over Cleveland Browns Chicago Bears (+3, and moneyline) over Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Lang Sunday's Selection ... NOTE: Doesn't get much better than this. Peyton Manning, on the road, where he has won 8 in a row, versus a team he has beaten 6 in a row. You will not get this kind of value with the Colts the rest of the year, and by God I am not about to pass it up. I haven't lost in the NFL on Sunday in 2 weeks. I am 10-1-1 paid and comp plays the last 2 weeks. I just handed the world the Dolphins outright Thursday. Now here is why Indy is my One-and-Only 75 dime winner today. 75 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - MONEY LINE - (Buy down the 1/2 point in this game if you have Indianapolis at -1 1/2, -2, -2 1/2 or even -3. Never get beaten by the hook.). Peyton owns the Ravens. Last year he was rusty when he faced them, and lit them up 31-3 like it was nobody's business - and how did Joe Flacco do against Indy's cover two defense? The Ravens only crossed into Colts territory on three of their 12 drives and turned the ball over five times. Not enough for you, let me take you back to the 2006 season when the Ravens met the Colts in the 2nd round of the NFL playoffs in Baltimore. Ravens were off a bye week. They had the # 2 run defense. The # 6 pass defense. The # 1 overall defense. They were ready. Peyton Manning and the Colts won the game 15-6 on the way to their Super Bowl victory. Now let's fast forward to 2009. Trust me folks, a lot has changed. Ravens are no longer the big feared defense. In fact, they are nowhere close, and you had better believe Peyton can't wait to attack them again. Let me break it down a little easier for you. In their 5 wins this year the QB's the Ravens have beaten are Matt Cassell, Philip Rivers, Brady Quinn twice and Kyle Orton. Let me point out that in their win over the Chargers, Rivers was 25 for 45 for 421 yards and if not for a horrific 4th and 1 play call, they don't beat Philip Rivers. The weakness of this Ravens defense is their secondary and if you don't get pressure with your blitz, your man to man coverage behind it is going to get lit up like a Christmas tree at night. Question, who is the best QB in the NFL at handling the blitz? Answer is 100% without a doubt Peyton Manning. This is as bad a matchup for the Ravens as you can ask for, and I fully expect Peyton to do what he always does versus this Baltimore team and that is execute his offense to precision and get the win. I am aware of the flat spot for Indy in this game off the big home win over the Patriots and if they were playing anybody else other than the Ravens I might be inclined to look the other way. Fact of the matter is Ray Lewis and this Ravens defense could match wits with Peyton 100 times, and I would go with Peyton all 100, unless the Ravens made a drastic change in their defensive philosophy. That is not happening in mine or yours lifetime. The Ravens do what they do. Blitz, and play man behind it. If you can protect and beat us. Congrats. You beat us but it still won't stop us from blitzing. It is who they are. Honestly, beating a team once or twice in a row, or even 3 times in a row maybe considered lucky...but 6 times in a row? With the same QB and the same basic defense this QB has seen all 6 times. Do you really think the Ravens can come up with anything in this game Peyton hasn't seen from them before? And he faces probably the easiest Ravens defense he has seen in the previous 6 meetings. Offensively the Ravens are struggling bigtime. You saw those struggles on Monday night versus the worst run defense in the NFL of the Cleveland Browns and a pass attack which made 2nd year QB Joe Flacco look very average. Truth be told, the offense is regressing with Cam Cameron, and I don't see it getting that much better on a short week versus the Colts. Indy is 9-0 and I just don't see Joe Flacco doing something Tom Brady couldn't do and that is beat the Colts. Teams now have film to work with on young Mr. Flacco and you can see it with how he is struggling in year # 2 as is Matt Ryan of Atlanta. Lastly, the line move in this game doesn't scare me at all as I felt Indy should have opened at -3 and it seems the line is working it's way up to that as kickoff draws near. At the end of the day you will never get Peyton Manning at this kind of money line price any probably for the rest of his career and it's because of this I am banking on him big time today. 15 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Great spot for the road dog here. First and foremost, great line value here with the Niners courtesy of the Packers big win over the Cowboys. Off that win the linemakers sees fit to jack up this number near a touchdown, and it's value I will not pass up. This is a Niners team that in the same situation went into Indy and took Peyton and the Colts down to the wire in an 18-14 Indy win. The 49ers have covered every road game this year, including an outright win at Arizona, and we all know what should have been an outright win at Minnesota if not for the last second heroics of Brett Favre. Their other two road games were the aforementioned Colts, and the 3 point loss at Houston catching 3 1/2. This team performs well in the role of road dog, and they have also been performing well under Mike Singletary to the tune of 6-1 ATS last 7 on the road. The Packers are not good enough to be laying this kind of number against anybody as evidenced by their 2 outright home losses to the Bengals as a 9 1/2 point favorite, and the Vikings as a 3-point favorite. I will gladly grab great value with San Francisco today and watch them be in this game the whole way and it wouldn't suprise me if they won the game outright. FREE SELECTION - MINNESOTA VIKINGS