Evan Altemus Philadelphia vs. Orlando These two teams met last season in the NBA playoffs, and Orlando proved that they were the much better team. In addition, I feel that the Magic are still under-rated in the Eastern Conference, despite beating BOTH Boston and Cleveland in the playoffs. I also feel that this team will be better this season with a healthy Jameer Nelson, as well as Vince Carter entering the starting line-up. The Magic appeared very motivated in the preseason, as they crushed almost every opponent they faced. I feel that these are two teams heading in completely different directions. Look for Orlando to get a dominant opening night win at home by double digits.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS WORLD SERIES Philadelphia (7-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-2) Back in the World Series for the second straight year, the Phillies send Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA) to the Yankee Stadium mound while New York hands the ball to ace CC Sabathia (22-8, 3.17) in a Game 1 pitching matchup of ex-teammates and former Cy Young winners. Philadelphia punched its second straight ticket to the Fall Classic with last Wednesday’s 10-4 home rout of the Dodgers in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, the second time in as many years that the Phillies beat Los Angeles in five games to advance to the World Series. Last year, the Phillies won their first world title since 1980 by beating the Rays in five games in the World Series. Meanwhile, New York needed six games to dispose of the Angels in the American League Championship Series, clinching its 40th A.L. pennant and its first since 2003 with Sunday’s 5-2 home win. Philadelphia, which knocked out the Rockies 3-1 in the best-of-5 National League Divisional Series, is 18-5 in its last 23 playoff contests, including 6-2 on the road (3-1 this year). Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 10-3 as an underdog (8-3 as a road pup), 37-14 after an off day, 5-1 on Wednesday and 36-16 against left-handed starters. However, Philly has dropped nine of 12 interleague games, all against the A.L. East. The Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS and have won all five of their postseason home games this month. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, sports impressive runs of 48-19 overall, 41-10 in the Bronx, 40-12 as a favorite, 43-14 on Wednesday, 37-14 against left-handed starters, 51-20 at home versus southpaws, 5-0 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-25 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven straight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 10 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003. Philadelphia went to the Bronx in late May and took two of three in a weekend interleague series. The Phillies won 7-3 and 4-3, with the Yankees rallying for a 5-4 victory in the middle game of the set, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth off Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge. Prior to this year, New York had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999, and the visitor has won six of the last eight meetings. Lee is 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three playoff starts, all Philadelphia wins. He gave up just four runs (two earned) in 24 1/3 innings with three walks against 20 strikeouts. Since joining the Phillies in late July, Lee is 9-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 15 starts, including 4-2 with a 3.68 ERA in eight road efforts. The Phillies are 11-4 behind last year’s A.L. Cy Young winner (6-2 on the road). Lee faced the Yankees twice this season with Cleveland. He gave up one run on six hits in a 10-2 victory in the Bronx on April 16, but six weeks later he lost 3-1 at home, yielding all three runs on nine hits in six innings. For his career, Lee is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts against New York (3-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five games at both new and old Yankee Stadium). Like his former Indians teammate, Sabathia was flat-out dominant in the opening rounds of this postseason, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. He gave up one earned run in each game over a total of 22 2/3 innings – including a pair of eight-inning efforts against the Angels in the ALCS – and like Lee, he had a 20-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the playoffs. Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 13 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.52 ERA (16 earned runs allowed in 95 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-1 in Sabathia’s last 15 trips the hill, all multiple-run victories. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 9-0 at home and 10-1 against winning clubs. Sabathia was on the mound on May 24 when the Yankees lost 4-3 to the Phillies. He didn’t factor in the decision, though, giving up three runs on five hits in seven innings. With the Brewers, Sabathia faced the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLDS last year, getting rocked for five runs on six hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings, losing 5-2. Prior to that, he faced Philadelphia twice in interleague play with the Indians – once in 2002, once in 2007 -- going 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA, meaning the Phillies are 3-1 all-time when facing Sabathia. All three Yankees-Phillies games in New York back in May stayed under the total, and the under is 7-1 the past eight meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four in the Bronx. As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 13-3 on the road, 4-0 after an off day, 5-1-1 in the opening game of a series and 5-2 as an underdog. However, the under is 9-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 12 interleague road games, 3-1-1 in their last five against the A.L. East and 9-4-1 in their last 14 as an underdog in interleague action. New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 6-2-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 15-4-2 after a victory, 16-6 in interleague play, 15-6 versus the N.L. East, 7-3-1 against left-handed starters, 5-0 on Wednesday, 5-1-1 after an off day, 6-0 in World Series home games and 7-1-1 when Sabathia pitches at Yankee Stadium. ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER NBA Philadelphia at Orlando The Magic begin their quest for a return trip to the NBA Finals when they open the season by hosting the 76ers at Amway Arena. Philadelphia went 41-41 last year (36-44-2 ATS), but that was good enough for a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division and a second straight trip to the playoffs. However, as was the case in 2007, the 76ers got bounced in the first round in six games, this time losing to Orlando. Although Philadelphia went 4-2 ATS in the six-game series loss to the Magic, they finished the regular season in a 1-6 SU and ATS funk. Orlando’s second-ever NBA Finals appearance was a brief one, as it lost to the Lakers in five games (1-4 ATS). The Magic did roll to the Southeast Division title and No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 59-23 regular-season mark (49-32-1 ATS), winning 32 of 41 home games. However, Stan Van Gundy’s squad failed to cover in five of its last six regular-season contests. In addition to eliminating Philadelphia in six games in the playoffs, the Magic went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Sixers in the regular season, and Orlando has won and covered four straight regular-season matchups. Additionally, the Magic are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in the last five regular-season clashes at Amway Arena. The Sixers lost five of their final six regular-season road games last season both SU and ATS, the only win coming in a meaningless regular-season finale at Cleveland, a 111-110 overtime triumph with LeBron James and several Cavs starters sitting out. Meanwhile, the Magic went 7-1 ATS in their last eight Eastern Conference playoff games, but have failed to cover in 13 of 19 against Atlantic Division foes and five of seven on Wednesday. The under was 4-1 in the final five games of last year’s Sixers-Magic playoff series. Also, the under is on runs of 15-7 in Orlando’s last 22 home games and 7-2 in its last nine on Wednesday. ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER New Orleans at San Antonio Two Southwest Division rivals with NBA championship aspirations get together for the first of four times this year, with the Hornets visiting the Spurs at A&T Center. After a solid 49-33 regular season (35-45-2 ATS), New Orleans got dumped in the first round of the playoffs last year by the Nuggets, losing the best-of-seven series in five games. The one victory was a two-point nail-bitter, while the four defeats came by point margins of 39, 15, 58 and 21 points. Including the playoffs, the Hornets went 3-10 SU and ATS to end last season. San Antonio was 54-28 (40-40-2 ATS) in the regular season last year, edging the Rockets by one game in the Southwest race. However, the Spurs failed to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2000, getting upended by the Mavericks in five games (1-4 ATS). Gregg Popovich’s squad won nine of its last 13 regular-season games, including the last four in a row, but including the playoffs, the Spurs closed the season in a 7-15 ATS slump. The home team swept last year’s four-game season series, but the Hornets went 3-1 ATS. Including a 2008 playoff series, the host has won 12 of the last 13 meetings (11-2 ATS). San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings at AT&T Center, and the favorite has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this rivalry. Including the playoffs, the Hornets failed to cover in five of their last six road games and five of their last seven on Wednesday. San Antonio enters this season in ATS ruts of 3-10 overall, 3-10 at home, 3-11 on Wednesday and 1-7 against division rivals. The under is 17-7 in New Orleans’ last 24 contests overall, 18-7 in its last 25 against Southwest Division foes and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry. However, the Spurs carry “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 4-1 on Wednesday. ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO Utah at Denver The Nuggets play their first meaningful basketball game since getting bounced by the eventual-champion Lakers in last year’s playoffs, as they host Northwest Division rival Utah at the Pepsi Center. Denver (54-28, 44-37-1 ATS last year) tied with the Blazers for the Northwest title last year, but won a tiebreaker to earn the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets rolled over the Hornets and Mavericks in the first two rounds, going 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS, before losing to Los Angeles in six games in the conference finals. Before ending the year with losses of 103-94 and 119-92 to the Lakers, Denver had started the postseason 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS, with the four losses coming by 2, 2, 2 and 6 points. Utah (48-34, 39-43 ATS) finished just six games behind Denver in the Northwest, but barely held off Phoenix for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff berth. However, the Jazz didn’t hang around long, losing to the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). Including the postseason, Utah lost 11 of its final 14 games while going 7-16 ATS in its last 23. The home team swept last year’s four-game season series, but the Nuggets got the cash in each contest. The host is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, including Utah’s 98-94 victory as an eight-point home favorite in last year’s season-opener for both teams. The favorite is 22-10-1 ATS in the last 33 head-to-head matchups. In addition to its 7-16 overall ATS drought, Utah has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 on the road and each of its last four on Wednesday. Denver went 8-2 ATS in its 10 playoff home games last spring and enters this year on a 21-7 ATS run overall. The over is on runs of 9-1 for the Jazz on the road, 7-2 for the Jazz on Wednesday, 5-2 for the Jazz against the Northwest Division and 4-1 for Denver at home. Also, four of the last five series meetings in Denver have hurdled the total, but the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes overall. ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
LT Profits: Cavaliers/Raptors UNDER 191 -110 Spurs -8.5 -110 LT Profits (NHL) Buffalo/New Jersey UNDER 5.5 -135 Montreal/Pittsburgh UNDER 5.5 +100 Ottawa -1.5 +235 Toronto +170
Dr Bob NBA Opinion Phoenix (-3) over L.A. CLIPPERS The Clippers played pretty well last night in their 92-99 loss as an 11 point dog to the Lakers, but Los Angeles applies to a negative 33-71-1 ATS early season indicator. The line on this game opened at -1 1/2 and is now at 13 and I would have made it Suns by 2 1/2, so there is at least 1/2 a point of negative line value. The situation is still good enough to lean with Phoenix at -3 but I'll wait for better opportunities that will arise when the strongest early season indicators start to apply later this week. NBA Opinion Cleveland (-6) over TORONTO Cleveland was 15-4 ATS after a loss last season and 56-28-1 ATS in their last 85 games after a loss when not laying more than 7 points. With that being the case I expect the Cavs to bounce-back from last night's loss to Boston with a good effort tonight against what I think will be another sub-par Toronto team. My ratings favor Cleveland by 6 1/2 after adjusting for the Cavs' lack of rest, so the line is fair and Cleveland will be motivated.
Lenny Del Genio Philadelphia vs. Yankees This is probably the Yankees series for the taking and the superb lefty vs. lefty matchup (Sabathia vs. Lee) in Game One works to their favor. They led all of MLB in most hitting categories vs. southpaws, going 36-18 while averaging 5.5 runs per game. In addition, they have gone 62-24 in their new stadium this year. Last year’s World Series aside, the Phillies typically do not perform well in Interleague Play, going 14-24 vs. the American League the past two seasons. They did manage to take two of three from the Yankees here in the Bronx earlier this season, but that was back in May when New York wasn’t playing nearly as well as they are now. This season alone, the Bombers are 69-25 as a favorite of -150 or more and Sabathia has a career 98-36 TSR in that same role himself. NY Yankees are our World Series Game One Winner.
Street Rosenthal *200 Charotte Bobcats +10 *200 Cleveland Cavaliers -6 *200 Houston Rockets +7 *200 New York Yankees -163 *200 Calgary Flames -182 *200 Minnesota Wild -140
Bob Balfe NBA Basketball (All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager) Spurs -9.5 over Hornets MLB Baseball Yankees/Phillies Under 7.5 runs Sabathia/Lee Balfe won his NBA play last night on Portland. Season record 1-0. Good luck tonight everyone.
Marc Lawrence | NBA Sides Wed, 10/28/09 - 7:05 PM Uq double-dime bet 701 PHI 9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 702 ORL
Elite Guru Sports 3-2 this week +14 units. They released two 10* plays tonight (10* are 20-1 this year when released by them). Lets hope these plays cash cause i'm all over them!! 2 team teaser- Toronto Raptors +12.5 - New York Knicks +11 10* New York Knicks +5 10* Colorado Avalanche +165 5*
KBHoops NBA 3* Toronto UNDER 194 **POD** 2* Toronto +6.5 2* NY Knicks +5 2* Orlando Magic -9 -120 MLB 2* Phils/Yanks OVER 7.5
SPORTS INSIGHTS Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 over Boston Celtics The Bobcats took a few steps forward last season, fighting for the last playoff spot in the East until the very end and generally showing some Larry Brown-style gumption. They also rose to the occasion in a few big games, including two wins against the Lakers and one double-overtime loss in Boston. Tonight, they'll face a Celtics team coming off a huge opening-night win in Cleveland. Kevin Garnett looked solid after last year's mysterious knee injury, and they even got a solid contribution off the bench from newcomer Rasheed Wallace. After last night's primetime victory, the Celtics have received 71% of spread bets and 87% of parlays. Yet the line has dropped from where it opened - 10.5 at both CRIS and Pinnacle - to -10 almost across the board. That reverse line movement indicates sharp bettors coming in on Charlotte, and indeed we've seen a Smart Money play on the Bobcats. It's too early to tell exactly which books will rise to the top of our Betting Systems' rankings this NBA season, but Cata/VegasVic was on the right side of the Mavericks/Wizards game last night, and we'll follow them here. You can find an extra half-point at bodog. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 (bodog) Sacramento Kings +7 over Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City made even bigger strides than Charlotte did last season, and with a young nucleus of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook, many are expecting the future in OKC to be very bright. Their only significant weakness might be in the frontcourt, and that's where the Kings match up with them the best. Everyone knows the guard combo of rookie Tyreke Evans and All-Star Kevin Martin will put points on the board, but young big men Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes are both animals on the glass. The Thunder opened at -7.5 and, despite the franchise's dearth of results the past few years, are getting a stout 61% of spread bets, as well as 74% of parlay wagers. The public support isn't impressing the Bookmakers, however, as the line has dropped to -6.5 at most sportsbooks. A full-point move is significant this early in the season, and when it goes against the betting percentages, it can be even more persuasive. Move quickly, and you can find the Kings getting 7 points with low juice! Sacramento Kings +7/-105 (Grande)
andre gomes, anyone? Oct. 28th, 2009 - 10:35 pm NBA 1.0 Houston Rockets +6.5 (-110) Oct. 28th, 2009 - 8:05 pm NBA 1.0 Detroit Pistons / Memphis Grizzlies Over 191.5 (-110) Oct. 28th, 2009 - 7:35 pm NBA 1.0 Charlotte Bobcats / Boston Celtics Under 183.0 (-110) Oct. 28th, 2009 - 7:05 pm NBA 1.0 Indiana Pacers / Atlanta Hawks Under 205.0 (-110)