Right Angle Sports #112 Pitt -7... 1 Unit #168 Baylor -10...1 Unit #204 AZ St. UNDER 52' ... 2 Units #194 Bama UNDER 52 ... 1 #192 Rut ... UNDER 52 ... 1 #169 TAM OVER 57' ... 1
Dr. Bob 3 Star Selection ***ARMY (-7.0) 28 Ball St. 10 09:00 AM Pacific, 19-Sep-09 Army is an underrated team and I made the Black Knights a Strong Opinion last week against Duke, a game that they lost 19-35. The reason that I didn't make Army a Best Bet in that game was my concern that Duke's good run defense would limit the success of Army's option running attack and force the Cadets to throw the ball, which they don't do well. That was exactly what played out, as Army's 274 rushing yards at 4.7 yards per rushing play wasn't quite good enough to give them the lead late in the game and the Knights turned to the air and turned a 13-21 deficit into a 13-35 deficit when consecutive passes were intercepted and returned for Duke touchdowns with under 2 minutes left in the game. Army did march down the field and score with time running out to make the final 19-35 and they actually out-gained the Blue Devils 385 yards at 4.8 yards per lay to 238 yards at 4.3 yppl (but were -2 in turnover margin). The reason I'm not afraid of making Army a Best Bet this week is because Ball State has a worse than average run defense that has allowed an average of 219 yards at 5.1 yards per rushing play to North Texas and New Hampshire, which are about average running teams. Army has averaged 5.9 yprp against two teams that would allow a combined 5.0 yprp to an average team, so the Cadets should be able to run on Ball State. Army also has a good defense that has limited Eastern Michigan and Duke to just 4.0 yppl (those teams would combine to average 4.6 yppl against an average defense). Ball State has one good player on offense in RB MiQuale Lewis, but Lewis' numbers are down (just 4.3 ypr) with just 1 experienced offensive linemen and because opponents don't respect the passing of freshman Kelly Page, who has connected on just 44% of his passes for a horrible 3.7 yards per pass attempt and 2.9 yards per pass play. Army shouldn't have any problem shutting down that attack just as North Texas and New Hampshire did. In their two games Ball State has been out-gained by an average of 3.7 yppl to 5.4 yppl against a schedule that is about 11 points worse than average. Army, meanwhile, has out-gained Eastern Michigan and Duke (schedule that is 10 points worse than average) by an average of 5.2 yppl to 4.0 yppl. My ratings favor Army by 10 1/2 points in this game and using this year's games only would favor the Cadets by 21 points. The reason for the play is a very strong 79-17-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that was a very profitable 7-1 for me last season. I'll take Army in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars from -9 1/2 to -11. 3 Star Selection ***BYU (-7.5) 34 Florida St. 17 04:00 PM Pacific, 19-Sep-09 BYU beat Oklahoma 14-13 in their opener as a 22 1/2 point dog and they were playing the Sooners even before Sam Bradford was hurt, so there was nothing fluky about that win. In fact, the Cougars should have won by more given that quarterback Max Hall averaged 7.4 yards per pass play and the offense averaged 5.4 yards per play as a unit (4 turnovers kept them from scoring more). The Cougars avoided a letdown and beat the crap out of Tulane 54-3 in a game in which they out-gained the Hurricane 532 yards at 7.0 yppl to 162 yards at 3.1 yppl. Hall should have no trouble exploiting a Florida State secondary that has been burned numerous times in 2 games by long pass plays. The Seminoles have allowed 18.2 yards per catch in two games, which is a bad omen for the big arm of Hall. I actually still rate Florida State's pass defense as better than average even though they've given up 8.0 yards per pass play in 2 games, as it's not likely that they'll continue to give up 18 ypc going forward. Even with that concession I still project Hall to average over 8 yppp and for the Cougars to rack up over 400 yard at 6.3 yppl in this game. Everyone expected BYU to be good on offense, but they've also been great defensively after a down year last season in which they were slightly worse than average. Bronco Mendenhall's defense has never been mediocre in consecutive years and he's done his magic again this year, as the Cougars held Oklahoma's explosive offense to just 4.7 yppl and shut down a pretty good Tulane attack last week (3.1 yppl). Even Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford was struggling against BYU's defense, as he averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt before getting injured (he averaged 9.8 ypa last year). Florida State has been mediocre offensively in two games, averaging 6.1 yppl against Miami and Jacksonville State, who would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. The Seminoles' rushing attack has been bad (just 4.4 yards per rushing play) and quarterback Christian Ponder hasn't proven to be anything more than just average so far this season after being horrible last year (4.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB). My ratings favor BYU by anywhere from 10 to 14 points depending on how much slack I cut Florida State on their pass defense, so the line is favorable even if the Seminoles have a better than average pass defense despite allowing 8.0 yppp in their first two games. Aside from the line value, BYU applies to a very good 108-39-1 ATS momentum situation and this a tough trip for Florida State, who has to travel over 2000 miles and play in high altitude for the first time. I'll take BYU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10. Strong Opinion Arizona 21 IOWA (-5.0) 20 12:35 PM Pacific, 19-Sep-09 Arizona has won their first two games by respectable margins of 19-6 over Central Michigan and by 34-17 over Northern Arizona, but the Wildcats have been much more impressive than those scores indicate. The Wildcats have out-gained their opponents by an average of 6.7 yards per play to just 4.1 yppl and Central Michigan went on to win 29-27 at Michigan State last week after struggling to move the ball against Arizona's tough defense (just 3.6 yppl). The Wildcats' defense should limit a mediocre Iowa attack that's averaged a modest 5.5 yppl in games against Northern Iowa and Iowa State. Iowa struggled to beat Northern Iowa in their opener and their 35-3 win last week at Iowa State was largely due to a +4 in turnover margin (although the Hawkeyes did out-gain ISU 5.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl, which would normally result in a 10 to 14 point win). My ratings favor Iowa by just 4 points in this game and Arizona applies to a solid 72-26 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Iowa is just 1-11 ATS the last few years after consecutive wins. I'll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at +4 or more and I'd take the Wildcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more. Strong Opinion Bowling Green (-2.5) 28 MARSHALL 20 04:00 PM Pacific, 19-Sep-09 Bowling Green has played well in 2 games under new coach Dave Clawson, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons' defense was solid last year and wasn't expected to be so with just 3 returning starters on that side of the ball, but that inexperienced unit yielded just 4.8 yards per play last week in a near upset of a good Missouri team and they gave up just 4.7 yppl in an upset of Troy in week 1. That unit isn't going to be quite as good without leading tackler SS P.J. Mahone, who has been suspended indefinitely, but they should be good enough to limit a sub-par Marshall offense that has averaged just 4.8 yppl in their first two games against Southern Illinois and Virginia Tech (those teams would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). Bowling Green is equally challenged offensively, but Marshall's defense gave up 4.7 yppl and 28 points to a bad Southern Illinois attack in week 1 (the Salukis would average about 4.2 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A team) and were stampeded by Virginia Tech last week (allowed 467 rushing yards at 10.2 yards per rushing play and 613 total yards at 9.0 yppl). Bowling Green applies to a solid 93-40-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Falcons have now covered the spread in 11 consecutive road games. I'll consider Bowling Green a Strong Opinion at -3 or better.
Northcoast Sports Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack Premium Plays Matchup: Ohio State at Toledo Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Ohio State (-20.5 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT Ohio St Over Toledo (Cleveland) - Last met in ‘98, OSU 49-0 (-37). This is a HG for Toledo but Cleveland is Tressel’s hometown and 90% of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. Toledo does have a great situation as they are off an impressive Friday night whipping of Colorado (we had an easy Friday Night Marquee Winner on the Over) and catches OSU off of their last minute loss to USC with the B10 opener vs IL on deck. OSU is 14-3 as an AF. New UT HC Beckman was OSU’s DB coach in ‘05 and ‘06 and he has a veteran QB in Opelt who avg 371 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. The Rockets’ D is T-#2 NCAA with 6 int. OSU allowed true frosh QB Barkley to lead the Trojans 86/14pl scoring the gm winning TD with 1:05 left and also all’d Navy 2 late TD’s to nearly tie it up. The Bucks were outFD’d 18-10 and outgained 313-265 LW as OSU had just 90 yds after taking a 10-7 2Q lead. OSU has to focus on the run gm which is #81 NCAA (121 ypg, 3.5). UT should be confident after knocking off Colorado and beating Michigan in the Big House LY. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Louisville at Kentucky Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Louisville (+14 -110) Line Source: BET365 Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT Louisville (+) Over KENTUCKY - This game is played for the Governor’s Cup and has huge stakes in terms of recruiting. UL is 7-3 in this series (visitors 9-6 SU) but the Cats have won the last 2 (both outright upsets). UK has never beaten UL 3 years in a row. Last year UL failed to score a TD for the 1st time since 2000 and UK (+3) won 27-2 despite only a 210-205 yd edge. Both teams are off a bye. In week 1, UK dominated Miami OH 42-0 with a 488-188 yd edge. UK QB Hartline threw for a solid 222 (67%) with a 2-0 ratio. UL beat FCS Indiana St 30-10 with a 419-101 yd edge. UL QB Justin Burke (PS#12, NCSt transfer) will make his 1st road start and threw for 223 yds (55%) but with an 0-2 ratio in the opener. Burke missed his 1st 8 passes but hit 17 of 23 after that. UL has 3 DL returning this week (missed opener). UK is on a 1-5 run as a HF and in this series UK has only been favored twice the L10Y and lost both outright. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: So. Cal at Washington Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Washington (+20.5 -110) Line Source: STRATOSPHERE Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT WASHINGTON (+) Over USC - New UW HC Sarkisian helped the Huskies earn their 1st win in 16 tries LW vs Idaho as QB Locker (287 ypg, 60%, 5-1 ratio) has proven to be a legit passing threat over the L2W in the new Husky offense. Sarkisian was the Trojans’ OC the L2Y so he has great knowledge of the USC players and preparation. LY in the 1st gm after the announcement of Willingham’s termination, USC shutout UW 56-0 at the Coliseum as the Huskies failed to get past the Trojan 45. USC is just 1-6 ATS in P10 road openers and is off their huge, last minute win in Columbus as true frosh QB Barkley (195 yds, 48%, 1-1 ratio) matured quickly against a stellar OSU def (lost LY at Oregon St as a 25 pt fav the week after Ohio St). The Trojan def has been dominant the L2Y as they have kept 7 of their L/10 opp under 200 yds incl surrendering just 184 to UW LY. They are, however, just 2-7 ATS in the 2nd of B2B RG’s, and meet an energized UW program that is the most improved team in the country. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Michigan St at Notre Dame Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Notre Dame (-10 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT NOTRE DAME Over Mich St - The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s MSU 23-7 win in East Lansing. ND had 3 TO’s deep in MSU terr and missed 2 FG’s. ND has faced the Spartans 8 straight years after playing Mich. MSU’s 6 str wins in South Bend is a record for an Irish opponent. Both teams were upset victims LW with the Irish allowing Michigan to drive 57 yd for the gm winning TD with :11 left after Weis called 2 passes in the series prior which saved UM 2 TO’s. The Irish finished with 27-21 FD and 490-430 yd edges and allowed a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clausen is #3 NCAA pass eff avg 326 ypg (66.7%) with a 7-0 ratio. WR Floyd (11, 320) is #2 NCAA rec ypg despite missing the last 6:22 LW while getting stitches in his knee. CM scored 9 pts in the final :40 capping a 72 yd TD drive, rec an onside kick missing a 47 yd FG but getting a 2nd chance to hit the gm winning 42 yd FG with :03 left to beat MSU for the 1st time S/’92. The Chips finished with 27-17 FD, 33:25-26:35 TOP and 418-316 yd edges. Cousins is #6 NCAA in pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 4-0 ratio despite being victimized by several drops. He QB’d the entire 2H LW and is likely to get his 1st road start here. The Irish have edges on both sides (#4-57 off) and (#21-29 D) and need to snap MSU’s streak if Weis wants to stay on the Irish sidelines. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Tulsa at Oklahoma Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Oklahoma (-16.5 -110) Line Source: BET365 Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: San Diego State at Idaho Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: San Diego State (-3 -110) Line Source: BET365 Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT San Diego St Over IDAHO - SDSt leads the series 2-1 SU/ATS. The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS in this series (‘96, ‘02 and ‘06). This is UI’s home opener in the Kibbie Dome, which is in stark contrast from the sunshine and grass field of the NFL’s Qualcomm Stadium that the Aztecs call home. The Vandals are hosting just their 3rd non-conf FBS game in the L/5Y having gone 0-2 SU/ATS in such a matchup with losses to NI in ‘07 (42-35, -3) and WM in ‘08 (51-28, +8). UI is on a 6-2 ATS run after ending a 4-18 ATS skid from mid-’06 thru mid-’08 and the Vandals are on a current 3-0 ATS run at home. SDSt has the edge on off (#92-107), def (#95-112) and ST (#67-111). LY SDSt led 38-3 after 3Q outgaining UI 603-351 in a 45-17 win (-11’). SDSt QB Lindley hit 24-38 for 433 yds and 4 TD and the Aztecs picked off three passes. SDSt is just 5-25 SU on the road (lost L/8) and 0-3 ATS as an AF over 6 yrs. The Aztecs haven’t been an AF S/‘07 and haven’t covered as one S/‘03. Idaho has a trip to NI on deck while SDSt has its MWC opener at Air Force up next. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Nevada at Colorado State Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Nevada (-3 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT Nevada Over COLORADO ST - CSU leads the series 8-1 SU but is 3-5 ATS. The Rams won all 8 meetings prior to their 28-10 loss (+3) in Reno in ‘06 in the last meeting. UN has the edge on off (#28-98) but CSU has the edge on ST (#103-115). Nevada’s “pistol” offense is capable of piling up lots of yds and pts and features a dual-threat QB, ‘08 WAC Off POY Kaepernick and two RB’s (Taua and Lippincott) who have led the WAC in rushing in each of the L/2Y. UN is coming fresh off a bye, however, following a 35-0 shutout loss in the season opener at Notre Dame where the Wolf Pack suffered just its second shutout loss in 343 gms (S/’80). UN was dead last in the NCAA pass D in ‘08 allowing 312 ypg and the Irish threw for 322 yds and 4 TD, incl strikes of 70 and 88 yds. UN is looking to rebound from an 0-4 ATS skid and has lost 3 of its L/4 gms SU. CSU started its season off with a bang defeating in-state rival Colo 23-17 (+10) in Boulder marking the first time the Rams won a game there in 23 yrs, but CSU needed a 4Q TD to squeak past FCS Weber St LW by 1 (24-23). The Rams have won 5 consec gms for the first time S/’02 and are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less (8 pts) under 2nd yr HC Fairchild. CSU is on a 5-1 ATS run going 4-2 SU during that stretch. UN has a home game with Missouri on deck while CSU has its MWC opener at BYU up next. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: SMU at Washington St Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: SMU (-6 -110) Line Source: M Resort Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT Smu Over WASH ST - 1st meeting. Wash St has won 11 straight vs non-conf teams in Pullman by an avg of 25 ppg. These two combined for a 1-22 record vs FBS teams in ‘08 but both are much improved. Only 1 of Wash St’s losses was by less than 25 while SMU had 4 losses by 7 or less and almost beat Houston and Tulsa in CUSA play, but blew late leads. The Mustangs are off a huge road win at UAB (4H LPS Winner) that snapped a 21 game losing streak to FBS schools. SMU jumped out to a 28-7 1H lead and withstood a furious Blazer rally stopping a 2pt conv with :13 left for a 35-33 win. The Mustangs ended up being outgained slightly (448-437) but forced 5 Blazer TO’s. SMU now has 9 int in 2 games (8 all of LY). QB Mitchell threw for 353 (60%) and 3 TD, but did throw 2 int. WSU fell to Hawaii 38-20 in a “neutral” game (Seattle). The Cougs trailed 35-6 at the half and were outgained 626-403 on the night. The lone bright spot for the Cougars was RB Montgomery who rushed for 118 (6.9). This is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Mustangs who are an AF for just the 3rd time S/‘03, but they do have a bye on deck. WSU has mighty USC on deck, so they see this as their best chance for an early season win. WSU all’d 489 pass yds to a similar Run n’ Shoot attack LW, and SMU now has some swagger, so expect Wazzou’s losing woes to continue. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Connecticut at Baylor Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Baylor (-10 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT BAYLOR Over Connecticut - LY QB Griffin (PS#34) made his 1st road start on a Fri Night game in a cross country trip to Conn and did well (4 ttl TD) as Baylor (+13) led 28-24 mid-4Q and had a 377-340 yard edge. This time Griffin is exp and Baylor has 16 ret sts, is off a bye and catches UC in an unusual trip to Texas (lost to SMU 30-31 ‘89). LW UC gave up 12 4Q pts incl a GW safety with 1:32 left in their 12-10 loss to NC. The Huskies lost their QB Frazer 3Q with a knee injury and UC may be playing w/o their top LB Lutrus (check status). The UC def is all’g 258 ypg and will have to carry the team as the new offense develops. After rushing for 259 (5.3) in Wk 1 UC ran for 72 (2.1) LW. Baylor had a 17 pt 3Q lead and held on to defeat Wake on the road 24-21 (+2’) in Wk 1 outgaining the Deacons 366-269. Griffin threw for 136 (63%) with a 1-0 ratio and rushed for 41 (3.2) while RB Finley had 91 yds (6.5). Although nearly even on def (UC #41-45), Baylor has the off edge (#42-96) as well on ST’s (#15-69). Baylor returns three 1st Tm B12 defenders and 8 starters on defense. Conn is 1-7 as an AD and 0-4 SU/ATS traveling to the deep south being outscored 18 ppg. This is Baylor’s home opener (4-0 as HF) so the crowd will be excited as the Bears look to avenge LY’s loss. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Bowling Green at Marshall Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Marshall (+3 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT MARSHALL Over Bowling Green - Marshall was 4-2 vs BG in MAC play from (‘97-’04). BG is 19-8 after a loss. Marshall has 16 ret sts and has bowl aspirations and BG has exceeded expectations early as they have just 10 ret sts and a new HC. This is in the 2nd straight AG for BG, as the Falcons are off a strong showing at Mizzou. BG led most of the game before the Tigers scored 14 unanswered in the 4Q to get a 27-20 win. BG was only outgained 353-320 by a Mizzou tm that put up 442 yds and 37 pts vs Illinois in the opener. BG Sr QB Sheehan is avg 273 ypg (68%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Geter has 148 (5.1). MU hung tough in the 1Q vs 14th ranked VTech, but the Herd was outscored 28-7 in the 2Q and lost 52-10. MU allowed a school-record 444 yds on the ground (8.4) and were outgained 605-252. The lone bright spot for the Herd was RB Darius Marshall who returned from a 1 game suspension and rushed for 109 (6.4), incl a 61 yd TD jaunt. BG has a huge home game vs a ranked Boise squad on deck and Marshall needs a win before heading into conf play (Memphis), so we like a Marshall squad that is 8-2-1 as a home dog since 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Florida St at BYU Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: BYU (-7 -110) Line Source: MIRAGE Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT BYU Over Florida St - These 2 have met twice, both BYU losses in ssn opening Pigskin Classics in ‘91 and ’00. BYU is 5-3 SU hosting BCS teams inc winning the L/2 by a combined 79-7. FSU is making a rare trip into altitude coming from sea level and traveling almost 2,100 miles. They have just 5 starters back on D and only 3 scholarship Sr’s on off. FSU had a short week LW and it showed as they barely got by JSU. QB Ponder is avg 309 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. RB Ty Jones has 99 rush yds (4.5). This is BYU’s first home game and they already have 2 wins under their belts and have won 18 straight home games. BYU had a 245-164 yd edge 1H vs then-#3 Okla when Bradford was healthy. QB Hall is avg a solid 319 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Kariya has 105 rush yds (3.6). BYU has already beaten Oklahoma and is confident with QB Hall while FSU is coming off a game vs FCS Jax St in which they trailed until in the 4Q. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: FAU at South Carolina Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: FAU (+21 -110) Line Source: ATLANTIS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT Florida Atl (+) Over S CAROLINA - This is a top situational game as FAU is coming off a bye while SC is between SEC games. SC also has a short week ahead as it plays Ole Miss Thursday. SC is 7-3 as a HF and 7-3 as a DD HF and this is their home opener. FAU usually uses these games (0-3 vs SEC avg loss 35 ppg) getting a lot of players action vs a quality team which helps them in conference play, but Schnellenberger talked tough about beating Texas (backfired) and may want a signature win. In their only meeting in ‘06 SC won 45-6 (-28’). SC has wins by just 10, 9, 7, 14, and 10 vs non-BCS foes in Sept and that includes 2 vs FCS Wofford. LW SC allowed 41 pts vs GA, the most since 2006, but held the advantage in yds 427-308 and FD 26-16. SC had a game winning pass broken up at the 7 with :22 left. FAU is worth the look with the generous points here. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Georgia at Arkansas Time: 7:45 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Arkansas (-1 -110) Line Source: BODOG Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT ARKANSAS Over Georgia - UGA is 30-5 on opponents home fields under Richt. In the last meeting in ‘05, UGA pulled out a 23-20 win in Athens but Ark covered easily as 19’ pt dogs. Georgia is 8-1 SU vs the Hogs. Ark is 10-6 ATS in SEC openers but LY was crushed 49-14 by Alabama as a 9 pt HD and is now 2-6 SU in them. UGA is 3-6-1 as an AF while Petrino has won his last 3 as a HD with 2 outright upsets incl LSU LY. Arkansas is the fresher squad off a FCS foe and a bye and UGA battled #9 OSU on the road and just battled for a 41-37 win over SC in their home opener LW and travels again. Ark HC Petrino admitted that his team had already spent time preparing for this gm in Aug prior to their opener vs Missouri St. Ark QB’s Mallett and Wilson set a school single gm record with 447 pass yds in their 48-10 win over Missouri St and Petrino used top RB Smith sparingly (4 carries, 43 yd) to keep him fresh for SEC action. UGA QB Cox is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and RB Samuel has 152 (4.3). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Matchup: Texas-El Paso at New Mexico St Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Texas-El Paso (-13.5 -110) Line Source: BET365 Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT Utep Over NEW MEXICO ST - UTEP leads the “Battle of I-10” series 49-35-2 as these two interstate rivals are just 45 miles apart. These 2 have combined to avg 63 ppg in the L/9 with the L/3 decided by 6 pts or less. The HT in this series is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, however, the visitor has covered each of the L/4 gms. NMSt has won the L/2 gms outright as a 7-pt dog in both ‘07 (44-34) and ‘08 (34-33). NMSt is on a 2-6 ATS skid and is 8-19 (just 4-19 vs FBS teams) SU and 8-15 ATS S/’07. UTEP has the edge on off (#78-120), def (#104-117) and ST (#92-100). The Miners are on a 3-1 ATS run in road openers but 0-5 ATS as an AF S/’05 with 4 outright losses. NMSt has another rivalry game on deck with a trip to in-state foe New Mexico while UTEP travels to Texas next week. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Member Plays Matchup: Boston College at Clemson Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat) Play: Clemson (-6.5 -110) Line Source: CAESARS Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT CLEMSON Over Boston College - BC had won 5 in a row in this series but Spiller had a schl rec (for RB) 105 yds rec and then-interim HC Swinney got his 1st win 27-21 (+3’) on the road. This matchup has been decided by a ttl of 13 pts the L4Y. In last trip here, #18 BC upset #15 CU 20-17 on a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left, stealing the Atl Div Title. BC has a 2 QB’s still trying to determine a starter and they’re making their 1st road trip to a very hostile place. BC is 11-2 ATS as an AD but does have their 3rd HC in 4Y. BC posted their 2nd str lopsided win LW vs a non-BCS. QB’s Shinskie and Tuggle have comb for 389 yds (43%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has rushed for 181 (5.3). CU is 4-11 ATS as an ACC HF. LW WR Ford and RB Spiller showed their blazing spd after GT had taken a 24-0 lead thanks to 2 ST’s scores as Spiller took off for a 63 yd TD pass and Ford went 77 yds for a TD (both track tm). QB Parker is avg 210 ypg (47%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Spiller has 99 rush yds (4.1) and 4 rec (17.3) despite missing most of the opener. WR Ford has 8 rec (22.4).
Phil Steele POWER SWEEP by Phil Steele PS won POW w/ UNLV last week and went 2-3 on others with a net loss of 0.8 units on star basis NCAA Star Selections: 4* UNLV over Hawaii - UH leads the series 12-6 SU and is 4-2-1 ATS vs LV, incl a current 3-1 run. UH has an edge on off (#48-71) but LV has the edge on def (#73-111) and ST (#72-118). UH finds itself in a similar situation here as in its last trip to Vegas (‘07) as the Warriors are again in the 2nd of B2B AG’s and stayed on the Mainland throughout the week. The Run-&-Shoot is back in gear at UH as QB Alexander is avg 379 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio and also leads the team with 87 yds rush (4.6) and WR Salas has 14 rec (26.8!) and 2 TD and already has 375 yds in 2 gms (188 ypg). UH is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the 2nd of B2B AG’s S/’05 and the Warriors are on a current 8-3 ATS run overall. LV has its MWC opener at WY on deck while UH has a bye. The Rebs are off a heart-breaking loss to Oreg St, losing on a 33 yd FG with :07 left. QB Clayton slightly injured his knee and left in the 4Q and UNLV rallied for 2 TD’s to go ahead 21-20 (4:16) behind bkup Clausen. Clayton is avg 192 ypg (72%) with a 2-1 ratio and his top target has been Wolfe with 14 rec (11.3). Clausen is experienced though, leading LV to a 2-1 record to end ‘08, so if Clayton is out (check status) the off will not miss a beat. This is LV’s 4th time S/’04 hosting 3 consec HG’s and the Rebs are 3-0 SU/ATS in that 3rd gm. With LW’s results there’s is added value which makes for a great Sept ember 5H. FORECAST: UNLV 41 Hawaii 23 3* TEXAS A&M over Utah St - Both schools are off a bye. A&M won a 4H on these pages 2W ago in dominant fashion beating up on NM 41-6 (-14’). Big difference from LY as A&M looked near perfect in Sherman’s West Coast system (606 yds) and smothering def (all’d just 231 yds). QB Johnson threw for 349 yds (76%) with a 2-0 ratio. Utah St hasn’t played in 16 days but looked good vs rival Utah (covered as 21 pt AD, trailed just 14-10 after 1Q). A&M has 16 ret sts and figures to use non-conf to gain confidence in the 2nd yr under Sherman. A&M is 12-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in non-conf HG’s winning by an avg of 29 ppg but will not take this game lightly after losing to Ark St and barely getting past Army at home in ‘08. Utah St is also a vet squad (16 ret sts) but like A&M LY are dealing with new schemes from a 1st yr HC. Utah St is 5-14 ATS as a dog vs BCS tms and has dropped 7 straight road gms (10-5 ATS as an AD). A&M wore down NM 2W ago and should do the same here in the heat and humidity of TX (avg temp high 80’s, low 70’s in Logan). A hungry team that needs big wins would make a great September GOM. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 48 Utah St 20 3* Air Force over NEW MEXICO - The Lobos are not off to a good start in the Mike Locksley era losing both games by 30+ pts. We have gone against the Lobos twice this season using a 4H Key Selection on Texas A&M in the first week and a 2H Key Selection on Tulsa LW winning both easily as the Lobos are struggling offensively and defensively with new schemes. Meanwhile, AF is coming off a tough loss to Minny LW blowing a 7 pt lead in the second half and usually play well on the road early in the season going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the MWC road opener. AF has also won 4 of 5 vs NM. LY NM forced 3 early TO’s and led 10-0 about to go up 17-0 when they fumbled and AF returned it 96 yds for a TD. AF scored the final 23 pts. The Lobos usually hold AF well below their season avg rushing but that was under coach Rocky Long and he is now gone. LY under Long, the defense held AF to a season low 227 rush yds with just 3 pass att. The new DC Dickey hasn’t seen many option attacks in his career and may struggle here. The visitor is 8-4 ATS and AF has covered 5 straight. Troy Calhoun is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as an away fav. Air Force should continue the Lobos woes. FORECAST: Air Force 37 NEW MEXICO 10 OTHER SELECTIONS 2* FLORIDA over Tennessee - The Vols have avg’d just 41 rush ypg vs UF the last 3 years (-11, 37, 96). The team who has rushed for more yds has won 17 of the last 19. The Gators are 11-3-1 ATS S/’94 in their first SEC game. UF had a 3-0 TO edge and got a 78 yd PR TD from James to win 30-6 (-7’) LY and the FD’s were even at 16 and UT had a 258-243 yd edge. The Gators are the best team in the country and this is their only game in the month of Sept that matters especially after UT’s new coach Kiffin made some disparaging comments about Meyer in the offssn. UF (-7’) won their last HG vs UT by 39 and that UT team made it to the SEC Title game. UF has our #1 off and #1 def and #2 spec tms and faces UT’s #45 off, #10 def and #65 spec tms. UF’s Meyer can name the score here as UF is fresh off of 2 blowout wins (outscored Char So and Troy 118-9 and outgained them by an avg of 644-231) in which the subs did most of the work while UT lost a hard-fought battle with UCLA 19-15 last week and has to travel. UT had a 208-186 yd edge but a 4-1 TO deficit LW. QB Crompton has struggled under pressure and is avg 163 ypg (63%) with a 5-5 ratio (3 int and a fmbl lost LW) while Tebow is avg 213 ypg (64%) with a 5-0 ratio. All UF has done is cover 15 of 16 regular season games. Sounds like a September 5H, doesn’t it? FORECAST: FLORIDA 38 Tennessee 3 2* KENT ST over Iowa St - Kent St knows they can win this as they beat Iowa St 23-14 on the road in ‘07 and LY had a 480-374 yd edge but lost in a gm an upset coach Martin felt he had the stronger tm (4 fmbl and 2 blk punts vs them). ISU is just the 5th current BCS school to visit Dix Stadium S/’76. ISU is making their first road trip and are off of playing their rival Iowa (outgained by 123 yds w/6 TO’s). QB Arnaud is avg 153 ypg (52%) with a 2-4 ratio (all 4 int LW) and was pulled for rFr Tiller (PS#54). They have a new HC and lost 22 lett while Kent has just 13 lett lost. ISU has dropped 17 straight AG’s and are 0-4 ATS as a rare AF. This will be their 5th MAC opp over the L4Y and they have been outgained in 3 matchups. KSU has outgained and outFD’d ISU in 2 of those (+47 ypg). KSU was blasted by BC LW (outgained 349-179) and have its MAC opener on deck. QB Morgan is avg 120 ypg (59%) with a 0-3 ratio as KSU played 3 QB’s vs BC. RB Jarvis has 158 yds (4.3). With the Cyclones road struggles and the Flashes past success vs them, KSU will be very confident vs this BCS opponent. FORECAST: KENT ST 30 Iowa St 24 2* OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures. FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 Tulsa 17 Underdog POW UDPOW Won last week with San Jose State Uab (+7') TROY Troy will be glad to have its first home game after two tough road trips. The Trojans are 18-0 in home openers under HC Blakeney. These 2 are locked at 3 games apiece, UAB defeated Troy 21-3 (Troy just 126 yds 1st 3Q’s) in 2006 and won at Troy 27-7 in ‘05. Troy is off Florida with their SBC opener on deck vs a prime contender. This is UAB’s first road game but they have vet QB Webb and 18 ret sts but they are just 2-19 SU on the road (13-14 ATS). UAB has the edge on off (#44-79) but Troy has large edges on defense (#81 vs #110) and ST’s (#12 vs #120). Troy did win all of their HG’s by DD in ‘08 with the avg home win of 40-9. Troy has been outscored 80-6 the last 6 quarters. LW in a 35-33 loss to SMU, UAB had 5 turnovers (4 int, 1 fmbl), incl an int in the EZ, and had a PAT blk'd, forcing them to go for 2 late in the game. UAB finished with a 448-437 yd edge. They are now back in their preferred role as an underdog and they have the talent to get this outright win. An upset here would make a nice September Game of the Month!!!FORECAST: Uab 34 TROY 33
Brandon Lang (REMEMBER TAKE THE OPPOSITE OF HIM) Friday's Selections ... 15 DIMER - LA ANGELS 5 DIMER - SEATTLE MARINERS 5 DIMER - BOISE STATE