Someone want to explain the Arkansas/A&M line movement to me

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Aeroforz1, Oct 7, 2010.

  1. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
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    It's showing up as a very strong play based on 3 of the 5 guys I follow playing them at -7 earlier in the week. Down to -5 now. Usually they don't concern themselves with line movement but I'm just curious what could be driving the line moving towards A&M. Arkansas is coming off a bye and A&M is coming off a piss poor performance. Doesn't make sense to me. :idk:
     
  2. Gunners

    Gunners Nicking a living
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    Money must be on A&M. It doesn't matter the percentage of people that bet on the game, the lines move to where the money goes to try and get 50% on each side.
     
  3. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
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    Just doesn't make sense to me why it would. I just don't get what people could be seeing to think A&M is the play there.
     
  4. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
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    If I am not mistaken, that is a myth that they want 50/50 money split. They have a side that they want money on and more times than not, that side is the winner. If it was 50/50 they would only be making the juice and I dont think they are putting up all those tall buildings in the desert on just the juice.
     
  5. Trofie

    Trofie Well-Known Member
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    You are looking at the Public betting Ark and Big $ sharps on A&M. This line Mirrors the Nebraska- Washington line. Which the Sharps were wrong on
     
  6. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Exactly correct.
     
  7. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    they want money on Arky in a bad way. Everyone remembers the Aggie team that got smoked last year by arky. Personally, following both team, I dont think Aggie has the fire power in the end to keep it very close. Johnson (QB) is hurt more than people know and this is greatly affecting his performance.
     
  8. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
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    I agree that the line should be higher, but just dont trust J. Johnson to not make AT LEAST 2 big mistakes like he has every game I have watched him this year. I agree that he is elusive and great at times, but I will still take Mallet even though he gave away the Bama game, he wasnt playing solitaire. Bama forced him into bad decisions and then made plays on the back end of their defense too. I like Mallet
     
  9. Gunners

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    they make 10% on every winning bet. When people are betting millions and millions of dollars then that adds up to millions. Not to mention stupid prop bets and everything else that will add up to way more than 10%.

    Vegas wants 50% money on each side. Them suckering someone to a side is them knowing the winner which is not the case. These guys have a good idea and I'm sure some bet themselves but the mandate is to get 50% on each side or they are essentially just gambling themselves. Not sure how that is a myth. It's the smart move.
     
  10. Gunners

    Gunners Nicking a living
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    Vegas sportsbooks lost something like $10 million on the Pats/Giants Super Bowl. Giants were pounded and Vegas said the reason they lost money is because they thought big bets for the Pats would come in but they never did.
     
  11. stil seeing at at -6 a lot of places, only moved a half pt on my book
     
  12. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
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    What does that mean? :idk:
     
  13. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
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    First numbers are % of bets on the side, second number is the amount of bets on the ML
     
  14. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    It makes no sense. Vegas isn't in the business of winning the minimum they can win. They're in the business of profit maximization. They have more resources, more information, better technology than you. They know that the betting public is willing to bet into bad lines.

    They aren't gambling when they have the information advantage AND when they are doing this over 20x more games than the average bettor (so they aren't subjected to losses in small sample size variance).
     
  15. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
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    I think people are looking to much at the Bama game and over rating arkansas b/c of it even though I don't think they did much to prove it. Arkansas has yet to show they can run the football. Mallet is a stupid qb who loves to throw into coverage and who especially struggles on the road. Arks D is improved but still not worth a crap. They can't stop the run.

    I think A&M probably wins outright.
     
  16. Gunners

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    Think what you want but just like blackjack, roulette, and everything else they are in the business of taking that small % because that will equate to hundreds of millions by the end of the year. They put out sucker bets and the pros are gonna pound it and they are gonna lose money.

    Winning 10% means you have zero risk and get 10% of all winning wagers. That is profit maximization.
     
  17. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
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    Agree to disagree I guess. I am pretty confident that I am right, as are you. Good luck
     
  18. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Interesting stuff I came across. Chad Millman's blog is pretty solid, and they profile several games each week (both NFL and CFB):

    "This was a big move. Right away it got bet up by someone who I consider to be really sharp who played it at 6.5 and seven. It kept getting bet and the line went all the way to 8.5. Then, on Monday morning one of the betting groups gobbled up all the A&M plus-8.5, then the plus-7.5, then the seven, and now we are down to five."
     
  19. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
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    That ended up as a 1 TD game right? I just remember that I won it. Pretty funny if Arkansas did win by 7 cause that will mean that basically the sharp money completely destroyed the books on that game despite the fact that they were on opposite sides. Tons of sharp guys took Arkansas at less then 7 and tons took A&M at over 7. Not a good game for Vegas I reckon.