Team Littlefinger, Motherfuckers! [Book 7 Spoilers]

Everyone hates the best. You know George is gonna let this man live, he's too awesome to die.

Spoiler

He wins the game of thrones

Only man in the 7 Kingdom's that stands a chance is the half-man.


For all you too stupid to understand and accept his brilliance...
http://www.towerofthehand.com/blog/2011/03/29-mockingbird-part-1-as-high-as/index.html

As High as Honor

We didn't really know it until the end of A Storm of Swords, and for the most part, the world of Westeros and the characters who inhabit it remain largely unaware, but Petyr Baelish, Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Protector of the Vale of Arryn, has been a major influential force on the story of A Song of Ice and Fire from the word go. The unforgettable final chapter of that third book revealed the man called Littlefinger as, if not the villian of the piece, then at least its primary mover and shaker. On a smaller scale, we've seen characters grow in individual strength, or collapse into self-destruction; we've seen children crippled, warriors maimed, and more than one protagonist beheaded, all without the influence of Lord Baelish. On the larger scale, however - the political arena, the secret world of intrigue and betrayal, and the ever-present game of thrones - Littlefinger is the undisputed king, and the person who set everything in motion.

But a persistent question remains. We know who Petyr Baelish is, or at least, we think we do; that's something we'll come back to a little later. But what does he want? What are his goals? We know that he's the mastermind behind some grand scheme full of ambition and shifting power, but what is the purpose of the scheme? What are its ends? What does Littlefinger hope to gain, ultimately, from his intricate machinations?

That's the question tackled here. A Feast for Crows offered us some insight into Littlefinger's moves, some further ideas of his next step, and perhaps his overall plans. Since we likely won't see much of him in A Dance of Dragons, this seems like an appropriate time to speculate on his motives. And to be clear: as always, this is only speculation. Until the final books in the series arrive, we have no way of knowing the truth about this fascinating character, and it may be that the author is preparing us for a major swerve. However, I believe it's possible to take a critical and detailed look at Littlefinger's actions and stated intentions, to attempt to figure out what he's really up to.

Before we launch into the full analyis, let's take a brief look at the primary schools of thought among fans regarding Littlefinger's motives. As I've seen them, they fall into three primary categories. A large group of fans believe that Lord Baelish wants to become king himself. He certainly makes enough references to the game of thrones to warrant the belief that he's playing to win. But does winning necessarily mean becoming king? There's more than enough evidence to suggest that wearing a crown and sitting on the Iron Throne does not, in and of itself, equal power. In fact, the nature of power is a rather consistent theme of the series, and someone who plays the game as thoroughly as Littlefinger strikes me as someone with enough brains to realize that power does not emanate from the crown like some magical halo of authority. Does Littlefinger want to be king? It's a question that, hopefully, analysis will answer.

The second major camp on this issue says that Littlefinger's motives are entirely personal. Having been spurned for the hand of Catelyn Tully, he sought to prove his worth to the world, to spit in the faces of everyone who told him he was too small and too ill-born to play the game of thrones. In addition, he lured Ned Stark to his death out of jealously, he has been steadily working to get revenge on anyone who has ever belittled him, and he is now infatuated with Sansa Stark. These are all fair points, and we'll see if Petyr's ambition stems from personal factors rather than power-lust.

The final major theory is that Littlefinger is working with Varys to install Daenerys as queen and return the Targaryen Dynasty to prominence. This is something that we'll look into later, in great detail. For now, we begin our analysis of Littlefinger's actions throughout the series, beginning with the murder of Jon Arryn.

This seems the most logical place to start, since it was this murder-mystery that started us down this whole road in the first place. Had Jon Arryn not died, King Robert would not have come north to make Eddard Stark his Hand. And if Jon Arryn had died of natural causes, with no suspicion to the contrary, Ned would have refused Robert's offer and not gone south. The driving force of the story (at least, this part of it; Dany and the Others are a whole other matter) stems from Jon Arryn's death, Lysa's accusatory letter to Catelyn, and Ned's subsequent investigation.

This brief line of dialogue contains the central revelation around which we must work. Here we have Lysa Arryn, overcome with emotion, essentially telling us the answer to the aforementioned murder-mystery. She killed her husband herself, and sent a letter to her sister full of false accusations, and she did it under Petyr's urging and direction. It's been noted that Lysa is about one mental snap away from complete delirium during this scene, and that as a result, we cannot take her words as truth. I disagree. In fact, in many ways, we are seeing Lysa here at her most clear-headed. We've been given to understand her character as someone who avoids truth at all costs if it's something she doesn't want to hear; she's never been one to accept a painful reality if she can look somewhere else, instead.

The telling part is, "Why did you love her best?" It's true, Petyr always did love Catelyn more, and Lysa knows it. But he has told her otherwise, he's married her, he's sworn his love to her, and she believes him because she wants to. It's a big deal for Lysa to be admitting to anyone that Petyr loved Catelyn more. It's a big deal for her to even say those words out loud, because with admission of such a truth must come acceptance, and she doesn't want that. Lysa is not delusional during this scene. She's not making things up, or pretending things happened when they didn't. Her delirium, if it exists, lies in her indiscretion; she is saying things that she should most certainly not be saying in front of other people.

Lysa's words during her final conversation must be taken as truth. As a result, we know who killed Jon Arryn. What we want to know is, why?

There are two strong motivations for Petyr's conspiring to murder Jon Arryn. The first has to do with the fact that Petyr already has a strong connection with Lysa. We know that they maintained contact after Petyr's banishment from Riverrun, that she helped him get his first post in Gulltown, and that she convinced her husband to bring Petyr to court, where he quickly became Master of Coin. The link is there. One thing Lysa says during her final scene is that she put the poison in Jon's wine "for Robert, and for us!" This suggests that, in her mind, the ultimate end of the plot was for her and Littlefinger to marry and finally be together. And certainly, this motive makes sense for Littlefinger. By removing Jon Arryn, he makes Lysa an eligible widow. He can then use her connection to him to become the nominal Lord of the Eyrie, as indeed, he eventually does. Since one of the major benefits to this plan is getting himself a high seat as Lord of one of the major kingdoms, it stands to reason that Petyr is currently exactly where he had planned to be: ruling the Vale.

Of course, that marriage didn't happen right away, nor could it have. There's no reason, from the standpoint of the rest of the world, for Lysa to marry Littlefinger. Had they wed immediately after Jon's death, not only would it have drawn considerable attention, but it might give the lords of Westeros cause to wonder anew at the immediate cause of Lord Arryn's demise. Littlefinger needed a reason to marry Lysa. He needed someone to ask him to marry her. He needed a politically sound purpose behind it to serve as his pretense and justification.

Hence, the war. This is the second end that Petyr achieves through Jon's murder. As we'll continue to see, many if not all of Littlefinger's actions are geared toward destabilization. His spends a significant amount of time fomenting war, and that is the only rational purpose behind Lysa's letter to Catelyn, which Littlefinger asks her to write. Through the letter, he builds suspicion between Stark and Lannister, putting the two houses at odds. And he does it again when Catelyn comes to King's Landing looking for information about the dagger sent to cut Bran's throat. Petyr tells Catelyn that the dagger belongs to Tyrion Lannister. Again, a blatant lie, but one that serves to set the two houses against one another. Petyr probably couldn't have forseen the chance meeting between Catelyn and Tyrion at the Inn at the Crossroads; he wouldn't have known exactly how and when the bad blood he created between Stark and Lannister would finally spill over into action. But he had to have known that something would happen eventually, and as it turned out, Catelyn's capture of Tyrion - because of the dagger story - was the spark that set Westeros ablaze.

In A Game of Thrones, there is another series of incidents that reveals the depths to which Petyr is committed to the cause of war. One question that must be asked, once we accept Littlefinger's role in the murder of Jon Arryn, is why he spends so much of the first book assisting Ned Stark in his inquiries regarding that same murder. Rendering this aid serves a variety of different goals for Littlefinger, but first and foremost, it keeps Ned thinking about the Lannister threat. Not only does Littlefinger further distance himself from any suspicion - after all, what murderer would freely offer assistance in the investigation of his own crime - but he also gives Ned leads that are designed to bring him back, always, to a Lannister hand in Shitty AMC Show. It's Littlefinger who gives Ned the names of the four people who came to King's Landing with Lysa, but didn't leave with her. That puts Ned on the track of Ser Hugh of the Vale, a newly-made knight who becomes the primary suspect.

The most interesting thing about the above passage is the fact that it's a quote from Varys, not Littlefinger, but that's a subject for a bit later. Suffice it, for now, to say that Littlefinger helps Ned gather evidence to implicate Ser Hugh in the murder, with the Lannisters as the puppets holding the young knight's strings. Combined with the fact that Ser Hugh is killed by Gregor Clegane - a Lannister bannerman - before Ned can question him, along with Littlefinger's dagger story and Lysa's letter, provide convincing proof to Ned that the Lannisters are behind Jon Arryn's murder. And if that wasn't enough, Littlefinger puts Ned on the trail of Robert's bastards, too. Ned's visit to Tobho Mott, where he finds Gendry, came off information provided by one of Littlefinger's four leads, and Littlefinger leads Ned to the brothel himself, to see another of Robert's illegitimate children. In short, Lord Baelish works extremely hard to make sure that Ned has no choice but to suspect the Lannisters of Jon's murder, and he even provides a motive.

Meanwhile, as time goes by, it becomes increasingly clear to the reader that the Lannisters had absolutely nothing to do with the death of Jon Arryn. We know Tyrion didn't have a hand in it, we know Jaime does his killing with a sword, we know that Lord Tywin was off in Casterly Rock...the only other possibility - and the strongest one - is Cersei, particularly after Tyrion's interrogation of Grand Maester Pycelle.

Again, this is a quote that we'll come back to later, but it is also the only real suggestion, apart from those we know to be blatantly false, of Lannister involvement in Jon Arryn's murder. And even Pycelle doesn't know that Cersei wanted the man dead; he only says "when I looked at her I knew." Would Lord Jon have died without Pycelle's involvement? Likely, but the Grand Maester was smart enough to speed things along, thinking he was serving the Lannisters. The problem is, there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that Cersei even intended Lord Arryn's death. She denies the act to Ned Stark - no real surprise, she has no reason to confess to him - she denies it to Tyrion - the brother that she mistrusts, but has far less reason to lie to - Jaime's POV chapters make it clear that he knew nothing about it - strange, considering how much the twins confided in one another, but believable, since Jaime is, at this point, beginning to learn that Cersei has been keeping secrets from him - and finally, in A Feast for Crows, we get chapters from Cersei's POV - and she doesn't even think such a thing. In fact, the things she does think about, over and over again, are the most recent Hands of the King (including Jon Arryn), comparing herself to them and generally judging herself superior. But she never once remembers plotting Jon Arryn's death. The Lannisters, quite simply, were not involved in any way.

This means that it's all Littlefinger. He manufactured the Lannister "plot" from thin air and sold it, hook, line and sinker, to the Starks. And he did it brilliantly.

Now, does this mean Littlefinger's sole motivation here was discord and war? In all likelihood, that's his primary motivation, and it gives credence both to his possible desire to be king (wanting the realm to dissolve into chaos, paving the way for his own ascension) and his possible alliance with Varys (wanting the realm to dissolve into chaos in preparation for Dany's arrival). However, there is a personal motive, as well. After all, by bringing Ned to King's Landing, and then by giving him everything he needed to make the Lannisters his enemies, Littlefinger practically ensured the Ned wouldn't leave the Red Keep alive. In addition, he was able to gain Ned's grudging trust, which he promptly used to betray him and turn him over to Joffrey's justice. A jealous desire to see Ned's head on a spike may indeed have been a large part of Petyr's goals; Janos Slynt was his, as well, and he had a role to play in betrayal and beheading both. It must have been so sweet for Littlefinger to lead the man who had married Catelyn Tully around by the nose, and then bring him to a crushing end.

So, thus far Littlefinger has three primary motives for Jon Arryn's murder, and for his subsequent intrigues. He wants the Eyrie, which he can gain through Lysa. He wants personal revenge on Ned Stark (even if this is not a primary goal, I can't imagine he didn't consider it a bonus). And finally, and most importantly, he wants chaos and war to shatter the internal political structure of the realm. As we've seen in the books, war helps him gain possession of the Eyrie, since he was sent by the Small Council to marry Lysa and secure the Vale's swords. You can be sure that it was under Petyr's instructions that Lysa kept the Vale out of the war so thoroughly; it seems the height of folly to believe otherwise, particularly considering that Littlefinger now has effective control of one of the only kingdoms whose populace and fighting force have been left totally unblemished by the War of the Five Kings. In essence, starting the war in combination with his power over Lysa gave Littlefinger a brand new army in perfect condition, while every other army in the realm has spent a full year shattering themselves against one another. With the Seven Kingdoms in tattered disarray, Ned Stark dead, and a secure position atop the Eyrie, it seems that Littlefinger has everything he was going for.

Except, of course, that's not nearly the end of it.

 

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Tyrion, Tyrell, Tully

In Part 1, we examined the ways in which Petyr Baelish was able to cause rampant chaos throughout the realm, and take advantage of the situation he creates to establish himself in the Vale of Arryn. However, after setting off the chain of events which will eventually lead to his stint in the Eyrie, Littlefinger engages in a whole other series of intrigues, beginning in A Clash of Kings.

The war needs escalation, and Petyr needs more power. Tyrion Lannister offers him a brief taste of something else he wants, before snatching it away again. It occurs during A Clash of Kings, when Tyrion feeds Petyr a false plan to win the Eyrie by wedding Princess Myrcella to Robert Arryn, with Littlefinger as the executor of the match. In return, Tyrion says, he will make Littlefinger the Lord of Harrenhal, Lord Paramount of the Trident, with House Tully under his rule. Littlefinger's greed at the prospect is palpable, despite is efforts to conceal it.

It's hard to believe that the desire Tyrion sees on Littlefinger's face is faked. Despite the fact that Tyrion was playing him false, Littlefinger does end up Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident. We also know that part of his scheme to marry Lysa and gain the power of Eyrie relied on him previously acquiring an actual lordship. So, while the specific lordship of Harrenhal might have been originally planted by Tyrion, Littlefinger was certainly gunning for something of that nature. Two major lines of analysis spring up as a result of this. First, the conversation between Tyrion Lannister and Petyr Baelish referenced above is the opening foray of what will become something of a battle between the two men, though Tyrion may not know it. Second, because Tyrion's promise was a lie, Littlefinger was forced to find another way by which to gain his lordship. He found the Tyrells.

All this is threaded together fairly intricately, so let's just take a moment to line things up. When it became clear that the Lannisters needed to win the loyalty of House Tyrell by marrying King Joffrey to the recently widowed Margaery, Littlefinger was sent to make the arrangements. He deftly placed himself in the position of envoy, making himself an indispensible part of the negotiations. He was successful, and brought the Tyrells to the Lannister side just in time to win the Battle of the Blackwater. For his efforts, he was made Lord of Harrenhal. Then, after Lord Tywin Lannister took control of the realm as King Joffrey's Hand, Littlefinger was sent on his mission to the Eyrie, to wed Lysa Arryn and bring the Vale back into the king's peace. He didn't go immediately, however; he lingered, unseen, long enough to ensure Joffrey's death, and to secure Sansa Stark. Only then did he proceed with his plans to marry Lysa, plans which, as we've seen, had been in place for a very long time.

Late in A Storm of Swords, Littlefinger reveals to Sansa a few details regarding his meetings with the Tyrells at Highgarden, and elaborates on his role in Joffrey's assassination.

"Gentle, pious, good-hearted Willas Tyrell. Be grateful you were spared, he would have bored you spitless. The old woman is not boring, though, I'll grant her that. A fearsome old harridan, and not near as frail as she pretends. When I came to Highgarden to dicker for Margaery's hand, she let her lord son bluster while she asked pointed questions about Joffrey's nature. I praised him to the skies, to be sure...whilst my men spread disturbing tales amongst Lord Tyrell's servants. That is how the game is played.

"I also planted the notion of Ser Loras taking the white. Not that I suggested it, that would have been too crude. But men in my party supplied grisly tales about how the mob had killed Ser Preston Greenfield and raped the Lady Lollys, and slipped a few silvers to Lord Tyrell's army of singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, and Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. A harp can be as dangerous as a sword, in the right hands.

"Be that as it may. Lady Olenna was not about to let Joff harm her precious darling granddaughter, but unlike her son she also realized that under all his flowers and finery, Ser Loras is as hot-tempered as Jaime Lannister. Toss Joffrey, Margaery, and Loras in a pot, and you've got the makings for kingslayer stew. The old woman understood something else as well. Her son was determined to make Margaery a queen, and for that he needed a king...but he did not need Joffrey. We shall have another wedding soon, wait and see. Margaery will marry Tommen. She'll keep her queenly crown and her maidenhead, neither of which she especially wants, but what does that matter? The great western alliance will be preserved...for a time, at least."

While we should take these statements as truth, at least for the most part, it should be noted that Littlefinger probably did deal directly with Lady Olenna at some point. Involving her in the scheme with the hairnet would have been impossible, otherwise. Still, this is merely detail; the fact of the matter is that Littlefinger and Lady Olenna successfully consipired at King Joffrey's death. Olenna's reasons are admirably explained in the above quote by Littlefinger...but why should he want Joffrey dead?

So, according to Lord Petyr, he killed King Joffrey simply because it was a confusing move with no purpose behind it? In general, we are drawn to believe the things Littlefinger says to Sansa regarding his plans, because for one reason or another, he wants her to know exactly how devious he is. Also, at first glance his original explanation of having no motive makes some sense, considering his previously established goal of fomenting dissent and destabilization. Still, in this instance, it seems utterly impossible for this to be the only reason behind the assassination. Littlefinger has already proven capable of killing King's Hands, and has now graduated to killing kings. This is no small move, and it required a great deal of effort, as we saw earlier. Killing the king has major consequences for the realm, which Littlefinger must know, and there must be a reason for his actions that stems from something beyond mere confusion.

If Littlefinger wants to be king, obviously the first step is killing the current king. However, there is the matter of the succession to consider. Joffrey might be dead, but Tommen is king now, and in Dorne, there have been plots to crown Myrcella. If Littlefinger hopes to rule, one of two things would need to happen. Either he would need to eliminate Tommen, and perhaps Myrcella, as well, thus destroying Robert Baratheon's "official" lineage and open the door for someone like himself to claim the crown, or he would need to rule from the shadows, making the child king his puppet and dictating policy without actually claiming the title of sovereign. Essentially, this is what Cersei spent most of AFFC doing; in name, she has no real authority, but her unique position of power over Tommen ensures that she, and not the king, is actually ruling the realm.

There are obvious flaws in this idea, none greater than the fact that Littlefinger has, in many ways, removed himself (temporarily, we must assume) from the court, and the administrative affairs of the Seven Kingdoms. If Joffrey's death was the crucial step for Littlefinger to assume the reigns of power for himself, it seems completely counter-intuitive for him to subsequently withdraw to the Vale. There, he has no way of setting himself up to take the throne, or of gaining influence over King Tommen. And Petry Baelish is certainly not Cersei Lannister. Cersei would rule herself, if she could. The deaths of her father and eldest son put the Seven Kingdoms in her hands, as the strongest influence over the tractable Tommen, but there's no charade going on in Cersei's power play; everyone knows that she's in charge, and she flaunts her power at every turn. Littlefinger, if we assume he's trying to gain influence rather than the crown itself, would go about things in a very different fashion. Consider his words to Sansa when discussing the happenings in King's Landing, near the end of the fourth book.

Some interesting things come out of this quote regarding Littlefinger's potential political motivations. For one thing, it confirms our prior observation that Littlefinger's chosen brand of intrigue is far above Cersei's level. This seems obvious, of course, but the more we see of Petyr's disdain for those who openly proclaim their power, the less likely it seems that his ultimate goal is the crown for his own head. At this point in the series, we've gotten into Cersei's head and realized how paranoid and stupid she actually is, so when Littlefinger dismisses her as a pawn who has no idea what she's doing, we can't say it's an inaccurate analysis. Still, he's made a point of proving that those who claim to have power are often very, very wrong, and that's something that shouldn't be ignored when discussing his motivations.

The second thing gleaned from this quote is that Littlefinger foresaw Cersei's situation, at least in the general sense, and planned for the collapse of the realm from the center outward after he killed Joffrey. This clearly indicates that Joffrey's murder served the purpose of greater destabilization, which in turn indicates that Littlefinger was not (and likely still isn't) finished in his quest to foment discord and war. He organized Joffrey's assassination, then removed himself to the Eyrie, where he had set up a relatively stable kingdom under his command, to await the complete breakdown of the administration in King's Landing. This leads us to believe that he's not particularly interested in trying to rule through Tommen, nor is he putting himself in the best position to eliminate Tommen. Littlefinger says he was expecting a few years to work with. Why didn't he get them?

Aside from Cersei's utter incompetence, the primary reason Littlefinger didn't get those years is Tywin Lannister's death at the hands of his son, Tyrion. This leads us nicely to the Petyr-Tyrion conflict, which has been brewing since Littlefinger named a certain dagger as belonging to the Imp. Consider: Littlefinger expresses resentment at being played for a fool via Tyrion's false Myrcella-Robert Arryn marriage ploy, which Tyrion considers to be payback for the dagger lie. After he leaves King's Landing to marry Lysa himself, Littlefinger nominates Tyrion for his replacement as Master of Coin, which leads to a further spate of public revulsion toward Tyrion. Littlefinger suggests the idea of jousting dwarfs to Joffrey as a wedding entertainment, which leads to a public confrontation between Joffrey and Tyrion at said wedding, during which Joffrey is murdered in accordance with Littlefinger's plans. Tyrion's escape and subsequent murder of his own father disturbs other aspects of those plans, which seem to have involved Tyrion's death and the continuance of Lord Tywin as Hand of the King so as to slightly delay the realm's descent into chaos and give Petyr the time he needs in the Eyrie. Later, when telling Sansa of his plans to marry her to Harrold Harrdyng, Littlefinger casually suggests that Sansa will soon be a widow, indicating that he has further designs on the demise of everyone's favorite dwarf.

Littlefinger's duel of intrigue with Tyrion gives some credence to idea that he's doing everything from the standpoint of personal revenge. Tyrion's false marriage plot stung Petyr; he seemed on the verge of unexpectedly being gifted the very things he had always wanted and spent years working toward (the Eyrie and the Riverlands) only to have it snatched away. As a result, Tyrion made Petyr's list of people who needed to suffer before they died. The personal revenge theory seems to hold that Tyrion was just another scapegoat at first, until he made things personal with the false marriage plot. Why use Tyrion as the scapegoat in the first place? Because he needed to implicate the Lannisters, and while Ned Stark would surely have balked at the notion of Cersei betting against her brother, the idea of Tyrion cashing in on Jaime's losses was far more acceptable (we know this, because Ned instantly accepted it).

The only problem with this is that if Ned had asked a single court regular if Tyrion had ever bet against Jaime, the whole scheme comes crashing down. In fact, this nearly happens in A Game of Thrones, Eddard VII, when Littlefinger himself backs Jaime in the jousting, and Lord Renly bets against him.

Both lances exploded, and by the time the splinters had settled, a riderless blood bay was trotting off in search of grass while Ser Jaime Lannister rolled in the dirt, golden and dented.

For each of these, there are both political and personal motivations. If Littlefinger wants an apprentice in intrigue for political reasons, he has personal reasons for choosing Sansa as that apprentice. If he wants to teach her how his unique brand of intrigue is performed, he also wants her to marvel at his brilliance. He sets his first trap for her - "Come to the godswood tonight, if you want to go home" - well before the "deaths" of Bran and Rickon, so her status as the perceived heir to Winterfell cannot be the sole reason behind his choice of Sansa. However, now that she has that status, her political value to him has undergone a dramatic increase, as demonstrated by his plan to marry her to Harry the Heir. In this, as in so many other things, Petyr's personal and political motivations are hopelessly intertwined.

Still, it's hard for me to imagine that Littlefinger's infatuation toward Sansa, his personal motive, is stronger than his desire to use her as a political pawn. Indeed, he has never failed to use her as such. If you'll recall, Littlefinger is the man who brings the Lannisters the news that the Tyrells are planning to marry Sansa to Willas, in ASOS. As a result of that information, the Lannisters immediately marry Sansa to Tyrion, instead, leading to Sansa's implication in Joffrey's murder. Now, with his Harrdyng-Stark scheme, he is using Sansa's claim to Winterfell in a merger with Harrold's claim to the Eyrie, creating an important alliance that, for all intents and purposes, will be under his control (don't forget that Littlefinger is technically the Lord Paramount of the Trident, so that's conceivably three of the seven great houses under his power). What we find here, it seems to me, is another example of Petyr acting primarily for political gain, with the fruition of his personal goals and vendettas coming as a bonus.

So, let's say that Sansa and Harrold Harrdyng marry as planned (Ser Shadrich might have something to say about that, but we're discussing what Petyr wants to happen, not what will happen). The knights and armies of the Vale, thus far untouched by the war, descend on the North and drive out the Greyjoy presence. The lords of the North, in all likelihood, swear fealty to Sansa and her lord husband (Karhold and the Dreadfort may prove to be exceptions, but they can't stand alone) and Stannis Baratheon, instant losing all hopes of northern support, becomes even less of a political threat than before. Just as he was when uniting the Lannisters and Tyrells, Littlefinger is the man behind the match, the facilitator who brought Stark and Arryn together, and the controlling power behind this new alliance.

Consider, once more, the following quote.

Given what we know of Martin's original plan for this series - following the opening trilogy with a rest period of a few years and beginning the next book after that time has passed - I strongly suspect that last line, "I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now...it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos," to be, in part, at least, the author speaking directly to the reader. Taking it on the story's own terms, however, requires us to ask what Littlefinger would have been doing during that time. Four or five years is a long time in the current political climate of Westeros; during that time, Walder Frey may have died, leaving the Twins torn apart by feuding brothers scrabbling for the old man's chair; Stannis may have been finished off by the Lannisters; the prophecy of Maggy the Frog may have been completed, leaving no heir to the Iron Throne. Any number of things might have happened, including the fostering of other, more secret plots by Petyr himself, but to what end? Once more, destabilization is the most likely answer. Petyr is annoyed that the realm is falling apart more quickly than he'd planned, indicating that he most certainly is not annoyed that it's falling apart in the first place. Once complete chaos has overtaken Westeros, I can see Petyr sweeping up all the forces loyal to him - Sansa and her claim to the North, Harry and his to the Eyrie, the leaderless Riverlands with their divided Freys and their original loyalty to House Stark - and forging them into the army that will take control of the Seven Kingdoms.

What then? Most likely, Petyr plans to annoint Harry and Sansa as king and queen and help them rule from a powerful position of support, perhaps as Hand of the King. It's also possible that he plans to eliminate Harry in the end and rule the realm himself, with Sansa by his side. While this would require considerably more manipulation than even Petyr Baelish has yet pulled off, it certainly fits into the trend we've been seeing of Littlefinger combining his political ambition with personal pleasures. Insofar as we can pick out Petyr's ultimate goal at all, either outcome could represent the most likely picture of his ideal endgame scenario.

And that would pretty much be all she wrote for our investigation into Littlefinger's motives, if it weren't for a spider, a dragon, and a single, telling sentence.

 

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Along Came a Spider

In Part 2, we looked at Littlefinger's dealings with House Tyrell, Tyrion Lannister, Lysa Tully and Catelyn and Sansa Stark. We determined that Littlefinger's motives might be equal parts personal and political, but that he has never flinched from using personal relationships for political ends. We've covered two of the three popular theories on Littlefinger's motivations; it's now time to look at the third.

To begin, let's take a look at one of the most maddening sentences in the entire series (from my perspective, at least).

This quote appears directly after the one presented at the end of Part 2; it's actually the culminating sentence of Petyr's brief ruminations on Cersei's demise and the realm falling to pieces too quickly for his liking. The question that leads us here is one asked by Sansa, but to which Littlefinger gives no reply: Who are the three queens?

Given the topic under discussion and the things currently going on in King's Landing, it seems somewhat obvious that two of the three are Queen Cersei and Queen Margaery, who represent their respective houses at court and whose relationship has devolved into a bitter feud that is having a rapid and dramatic effect on the political landscape. But who is the third? Selyse Baratheon seems an extremely unlikely contender, Balon Greyjoy's wife was never an important player, and Jeyne Westerling has dropped completely off the political map as far as the principal movers and shakers are concerned (I have a slightly different view of that particular situation, but you all probably know that already, and it has no relevance here). There are only two likely possibilities for Littlefinger's third queen: Myrcella Baratheon and Daenerys Targaryen.

Get ready, folks, because this is the swampiest part of the whole Littlefinger mess. Given the position of Alayne's second POV chapter, near the very end of the book, it's reasonable to assume that Arianne Martell's failed plan to crown Myrcella (which occurs pretty much in the middle, and closer to the beginning than the end) has already taken place. This occurrence has the potential to cause a great deal of damage to relations between the Iron Throne and Dorne, and may end up being the catalyst for even more war and destruction. This certainly fits Littlefinger's notions on the end of the peace, and Myrcella's situation is directly connected with that of Cersei and Margaery. The problem is that Doran Martell has done all he can to prevent word of his daughter's attempt at rebellion from getting out. If Petyr has friends or agents in Dorne, he might easily be aware of what's going on; however, it's hard to judge this because he's never demonstrated any interest in Dorne thus far.

Daenerys is the far more likely candidate, particularly considering that she, unlike Myrcella, has actually been crowned as a queen. The prologue of AFFC features a group of novices at the Citadel discussing the rumors surrounding Dany's movements, so it seems the tales of her exploits have finally begun to cross the narrow sea in earnest as the book begins. Similar to his disinterest in Dorne, Petyr has thus far appeared remarkably ignorant, or at least unconcerned, about Dany's growing power in the east. His only real action in response to her occurs early in AGOT, where he votes to have her assassinated. Despite his assurances to Ned Stark later that he has ensured her continued safety by offering an open bounty for a lordship rather than hiring the Faceless Men, it is Varys who warns Ser Jorah of the imminent attempts on Dany's life, not Littlefinger. Since then, Petyr Baelish has been conspicuously silent on the subject of the last Targaryen.

It's undeniable that her return, if it ever happens, will shake up the power structure significantly, so if she is the third queen, Petyr puts forth a legitimate claim that she will be among the powers to cause the end of the brief peace. Still, even though Dany is the more obvious choice, either she or Myrcella could fill that role. Either one requires Littlefinger to have both knowledge and interest that he has not shown himself to have thus far, and remember, the respective situations of Dany and Myrcella are tied together by the scheming of Prince Doran Martell. A connection between Littlefinger and the Dorne-Daenerys storyline is unavoidable at this juncture, no matter which one turns out to be the third queen.

And here, finally, we come to the last of Littlefinger's three potential motivations. Is Petyr Baelish working with Varys to facilitate Dany's return and ascension?

There are several passages in the series that seem to make clear the absurdity of the entire suggestion that Varys and Littlefinger are working together. The first book alone offers numerous examples.

This passage features Littlefinger's claim to have Varys under control. While this could lead readers to believe that Littlefinger is manipulating Varys to serve his own purposes, it could also easily be interpreted to mean that the two are at odds with one another. It certainly does very little to suggest a partnership for a common goal. It should also be considered that Littlefinger is speaking here to Ned and Catelyn, both of whom he goes on to deceive and betray, so this dialogue, in truth, is proof of nothing. He is almost certainly exaggerating the power he has over Varys, and it seems most likely that he is mainly trying to keep the Starks thinking about the Lannister threat.

From A Game of Thrones, Eddard XV:

"Is this your own scheme," [Ned] gasped out at Varys, "or are you in league with Littlefinger?"

That seemed to amuse the eunuch. "I would sooner wed the Black Goat of Qohor. Littlefinger is the second most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms. Oh, I feed him choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks I am his...just as I allow Cersei to believe I am hers."

This dialogue is from Eddard's final POV chapter, when Varys visits him in the black cells. The eunuch comes off perhaps at his most sincere during this chapter, speaking truthfully and bluntly with Ned while claiming that he serves the realm and is working for the ultimate goal of peace. The passage contains his outright denial of any partnership of Littlefinger, and the fact that Varys feeds Littlefinger information "sufficient so that he thinks I am his" actually fits with the earlier quote and suggests that Varys is outplaying Petyr Baelish.

An interesting side note here is that Ned suspects the two of working together after Varys suggests the same plan Littlefinger had suggested earlier; namely, support Joffrey as king. Interesting how when Ned finally follows this advice, he dies for it.

This is part of the secret conversation between Varys and Magister Illyrio, overheard by Arya in the depths of the Red Keep. Everyone knows the passage, so there's no need for a lengthy quotation here, but Littlefinger does come up briefly in the talk between the two conspirators. Specifically, Varys admits that he has no idea what Littlefinger is really doing (which in itself indicates that they are not working together) and blames Littlefinger for Catelyn's capture of Tyrion.

The passage in its entirety is pretty much the only evidence for the extremely popular theory that Varys is working with Illyrio to bring Daenerys back to the Seven Kingdoms. Aside from the warning he gives Ser Jorah regarding an early assassination attempt, this passage is the sole basis for almost every Varys theory out there. If we assume this is correct, that Varys is speaking truthfully and is actually working with Illyrio to bring Dany back, we must assume also that he is not working with Littlefinger. In the context of the passage, it's clear that Littlefinger is not conspiring with them in their schemes, and that he is actually a hazard that must be guarded against. If the popular theory holds, Varys and Littlefinger cannot be partners in the Dany plan. Varys is doing things slowly during A Game of Thrones, biding his time with Illyrio. Littlefinger is setting his plans into motion at breakneck speed. Varys wants peace, Littlefinger wants war. The two men cannot have a common goal.

However, what if Varys is actually double-crossing Illyrio? What if he's not trying to help Dany, after all? It's far fetched, but possible, particularly considering the dearth of evidence regarding Varys' true intentions. If it's difficult to put a picture together of Littlefinger's motives, it's impossible to do the same for Varys. There's simply not enough information, unless we accept the truth of the Varys-Illyrio conversation. Accept that, and we know what Varys wants; fail to do so, and his true intentions could be anything.

There are a few strange things about Varys' behavior that come up during the course of the books, and cast faint shadows of doubt on the belief that he and Littlefinger are enemies.

This passage came up in Part 1, but it achieves new significance here. We know that Ser Hugh was not, in fact, the poisoner of Jon Arryn. Varys knows the tears of Lys were used, but not, it seems, the truth of who used them. Has Littlefinger fooled the Master of Whisperers, or does Varys know the truth, but lies to Ned about it? In the latter case, Varys would seem to be acting on Littlefinger's scheme to pit Stark and Lannister against one another, lending credence to the idea of the two working together.

Additionally, Arya hears Varys complain about Littlefinger's meddling regarding the dagger lie, and yet, we must recall that Varys was in the room with Petyr and Catelyn when the lie was told. Varys surely knows that Littlefinger's story is impossible, but does not act on the knowledge. If Varys' true aim is peace, as he tells Ned, why allow the dagger lie to play out? Furthermore, if Varys wants peace and "was truly desperate to keep Robert Baratheon alive," as he also tells Ned, how does that translate to his supposed plan to return Daenerys to Westeros? Her coming will surely mean war, and would have even if Robert had lived. In fact, had Robert survived, Dany would be preparing to enter battle against a nation unified under a king who hated Targaryens with a burning passion, instead of a nation divided between a group of squabbling would-be sovereigns who couldn't care less about what's going on across the narrow sea. Wouldn't Littlefinger's efforts at destabilization be more conducive to Dany's return, not less?

In the end, Varys' true motives remain as shadowy as Littlefinger's have proven to be. Lacking POVs, all we know of them is what they tell others, and we cannot determine as yet whom is lying to whom. I think it safest to assume, for now, at least, that Varys is working with Illyrio and not with Littlefinger. The evidence that supports this viewpoint comes from Varys' conversation with Illyrio under the Red Keep, and his conversation with Ned in the black cells. These are the only locations we've seen in which Varys might feel comfortable speaking honestly, and so it's far more likely that, in these situations, he is being honest. It's not much to go on, and it could be utterly false, but it's the best we have at the moment.

So, what have we gathered about Littlefinger's motives from this analysis? The extent to which what we don't know outweighs what we do know is damnably frustrating. Littlefinger's political and personal motivations are inextricably entwined, and we can't tell if his ambition is stronger than his desire for revenge, or vice versa. While it appears that he and Varys are not working together, it is possible that they are. The identity of the third queen remains a mystery, though it's my personal belief that Littlefinger is referring to Daenerys. He may not be helping bring her across the water (or he may) but that doesn't mean he doesn't recognize the danger she poses. He might even be trying to bring her back independent of Varys and Illyrio, hoping to secure her gratitude for himself and cut the two of them out of the deal. Perhaps he's arranging things so that Dany will arrive at Gulltown with the Vale's armies at her disposal. Perhaps one of Arianne Martell's companions (Darkstar?) was in Petyr's employ, and he had a hand in foiling her plans, wounding Myrcella and bringing more destabilization to the realm. Perhaps he's working with Illyrio against Varys, instead of the other way around.

And perhaps he's the secret bastard son of Jon Arryn and Joanna Lannister. There's just no way to know. As much as I hate presenting so much analysis for a question that must ultimately go unanswered, no definitive statements regarding Littlefinger's motives can really be made at this point. We know what he's done, and we know a little of his future plans, but his final goal remains a mystery. Whether it's to be Hand of the Queen to Daenerys and govern on her authority, or to rule the realm himself with Sansa by his side, we simply cannot see where his ideal path ends. Petyr Baelish is playing the game of thrones, and he's playing to win. The question here, and perhaps one of the central questions of the entire series, is this: when you play the game of thrones, what is victory?

For now, we'll have to leave the answer in the hands of an author who seems to work at a positively lethargic pace. While I failed to provide a firm solution, I hope that this series of essays have given readers insight into Littlefinger's actions and possible motives, so that they might examine the evidence presented and make their own judgments.

 

Some theories have him being with Dany, helping her take the throne. I think he's probably gonna be killed, I just hope its not that dumb bitch that does it because he's just had to much go right for him for fatass to allow him to live. He's does have the underdog thing though and Martin likes the underdogs.

I also really hope he gets a pov eventually and gets the Jaime treatment.

 

I was in the camp that Littlefinger and Vary's were together but their interaction in the show (specifically the scene b/w just those two) makes me think they aren't. maybe book5 sp, i don't know

Spoiler

plus Vary's/Bealish combo would just be unfair to the rest of the real

Mainly because I think George is pretty open with the show creators. I hope I'm wrong bc I want Littlefinger to eventually end up on the "Good" side. Unless the bad side wins, then I want Bealish sitting at the top of the Evils.

 

George has made him far too human to be with the others, imo. And I thought it was confirmed that Joffrey tried to finish off Bran?

 

Been too long since I've read some Baelish scheming. Can't wait for him to start raping faces again in WOW