I don't really disagree with you on the production side but there has been a lot of speculation for weeks now that deliveries would be intentionally/artificially depressed in June so as to avoid crossing the 200,000 sale mark and starting the clock on the tax credit phase-out until next (now this) quarter.
i've read that too. so price is going to increase by 3750 soon and eventually the 7500 credit will go away. so maybe thats good for the short term, but their 35,000 model 3 thats really a 70,000 model 3 is about to turn into a 77500 model 3. all with increased competition coming sooner rather than later.
just added this: Mon Jul 02 13:39:27 2018 Buy 4 TSLA Jun 21 '19 $195 Put Executed @ $20.12 to my jan 18 300 puts and jun 21 200 puts
You get into the weeds too much. The "tent" is an aluminum structure. Here is a list of a bunch of other projects the sprung structure has been used on: http://www.sprung.com/category/case-studies/ Here is DaimlerChrysler using one of these http://www.sprung.com/case-study/daimlerchrysler-corporation/ Here it is being used in aerospace applications, https://www.aerospace-technology.com/contractors/manufacturing/sprung-instant-structures/ Point is who cares, they found a way to create a space quickly and get what they needed done.
from that article: counting on fat gross margins of 25% to stay in the black. (Ford by contrast has 10% margins.)" data-reactid="29">But it won’t be, argues Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business. The margins on the Model 3 must still pay for a cost structure that legacy carmakers don’t have, including planned factory expansions, new automation investments, and its own dealership network. While Tesla has its own advantages, like integrated solar and energy storage products and no costly pension liabilities, the company is counting on fat gross margins of 25% to stay in the black. (Ford by contrast has 10% margins.) The $28,000 estimate for building the Model 3 “shows there’s some possibility of making money at the low end,” said Gordon. “But it actually doesn’t leave very much [money] per car for all the other expenses. If they’re selling it for less than $50,000, I don’t think it’s a good business.”
No duh its a growing company, this is how Tesla has worked from the get go build a higher priced vehicle in the roadster to fund the Model S line, Model S funds Model X line, Model S&X line funds the model 3 line. Now the model 3 line will eventually fund the Y/Semi/Truck whatever project they have down the line. All he wrote in their is the company will invest in itself, which is a good thing. If they stopped investing in itself it would be profitable and make money.
tesla had a cash balance of 2.7 billion after q1 and they expect to spend 3 billion by the end of the year. they've had two profitable quarters in the companies history. moodys downgraded their bonds to junk level they lost $785 million in q1
The 28,000 number is a two part number: material costs of 18,000 and a number of 10,000 that the german engineers randomly came to, that currently is probably high and will only improve as the line becomes more efficient (same thing that has happened on the prior cars).
And they are going to lose money in Q2, ramps in production are expensive. Now going forward what we should see is an increased focus on efficiency (see the layoffs and scrutiny of contractors they work with) now that the production ramp has leveled out some. Tesla will hold off on expanding the company in Q3 and Q4 to show the profitability of the Model 3. Important things to Tesla going forward: 1. Working efficiency to the point where they can begin producing the 35k base version by the end of the year (thats a target I believe is important to hit) 2. Improving overall gross margins on M3, which ties into point 1 above 3. Solar city, acquiring the company is a valid criticism but in the long run it was necessary. How are they going to navigate the solar city debt that has hampered Teslas ability to grow as fast as they have wanted. 4. The terms and conditions of the factory that will be built in shanghai, they will bypass all tariffs and enter into the largest EV market in the world. But how will it be funded? 5. The continued ramping of battery production at the Gigafactory to start on the backlog of Tesla energy projects, and the less talked about solar factory in Buffalo NY beginning roof tile installations.
I fully expect that they will use Q3 and Q4 profitability to get more favorable terms from capital markets and raise capital in early 2019 to begin investment in the Model Y production lines/Semi/Truck whatever.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcol...ment-schedule-is-the-real-issue/#640f12b8113d if this is right, tsla has to pay $487 million to it's creditors before the end of the year. in march of 2019, if it's stock price isn't $359.87 they'll have to pay 920 million.
Yup, its in shorts best interest to keep the stock below $360. They will likely have to pay out $487 million before the end of the year and $566 million in November of 2019. The $920 million is a wait and see. Like I said earlier Solar City was not a great move and it really constrained growth going forward, but its a necessary part in the future. Just remains to be seen if they can navigate it. Also looks like the factory is taking a break till after the 4th, wont affect guided numbers.
Gallant Knight just curious why you are so passionately anti-Tesla? It seems like a weird thing to care this much about.
I'm with Gallant Knight. I hope electric cars fail and thousands of people lose their jobs. :fingerscrossed:
don't think high end electric cars will fail at all. jaguars and porches will be available in 4-10 months.
So it's just American produced EV's you're hoping fail? It just seems weird that you are praying so hard for so many people to lose their jobs and a big American company to fail.
This doesn't really matter though. Until any of them have a expansive charging network like Tesla they're all years behind.
This is one part of the equation. No one has gone forward and put the investment into the charging network. Part 2 is no one else (outside of china) has invested in a large enough battery factory to mass produce EV cars and make them profitable.
You can like a company and at the same time think they are overvalued. What Gallant Knight thinks / does is irrelevant to whether or not Tsla succeeds. The valuation currently on TSLA and other Musk related companies seem pretty high to me. If anything, this tells me that the masses are over optimistic.
All I'm saying is that it's odd that he's not doing what you just said. I think being critical of the way Tesla does something is absolutely fine and normal. Begging and pleading for them to bankrupt is just weird. There's definitely some ulterior motive or something else going on. It's just not normal to pull for an American company's demise and thousands to lose their jobs for no reason. And my guess for why investors seem to see value in musk companies that others don't is probably because he always seems to make things work, especially when they seem certain not to. Will he continue that? I have no idea, but I feel like some people are just betting against him because they don't like him. I don't like a lot of CEO's, but I don't want their company to fail and cost thousands their jobs.
I don't want Tesla to fail. I want it to thrive. I want Musk personally to fail and I look forward to his ouster. There's a distinction.
Certainly. Musk isn't very likable. GK just seems to want the company to fail so he can make money. I don't know.
I actually think Musk is great. Maybe not personally but professionally. All his endeavors are serving to move humanity forward. I don't want that to fail at all.
Jim Chanos thinks he will stop down from TSLA soon and focus on space x Apparently his payment structure from tsla doesn’t change if he leaves but keeps some BS title
Oh I agree completely. I just understand that plenty of people hate him for always bucking the trend and doing things that have a bigger meaning than just making money.
Charging stations will be 3rd party for the most part anyway. I’m installing 2 charging stations on a project now for all EVs. Using the ChargePoint network. It’s a cool app if you have never checked it out.
For the record, I really like Elon Musk. However,when investing or trying to make money, I try to take my feelings out of it. Looking at the numbers, I don’t see the risk/reward of being long the stock. Gun to my head with those numbers and I would short every time. I don’t necessarily view it as rooting against a company as much as rooting for your analysis to be correct.
I get that. I wasn't referring to you or anyone else. GK just has an odd desire for this company to fold. If he just has a weird way of rooting for himself to make some money at thousands of people's expense, fine, but his position seems to be personal. Zero reason for you to white knight for him. I don't see you openly hoping the company folds. I agree that the numbers aren't great and I certainly understand anyone that took a short position or just avoided the company altogether. I think that's the draw for many with Musk. Tesla seems to be a very high risk/reward company and I completely understand what both sides see.