Tesla

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by TheFreak55, Apr 29, 2015.

  1. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington RedskinsAtlanta United

    In the US, don't dealers buy the cars from the maker? So they are technically delivered? Then the Dealers own them while they sit on their lot?

    Wonder if the EU has regulations Tesla couldn't get around while selling cars there.

    Could be some commons sense reason IDK, but probably Elon trying to defraud everyone again. That Elon
     
  2. MA

    MA Surprisingly normal looking
    Donor TMB OG
    Houston TexansManchester UnitedAtlanta UnitedAlabama Crimson TideSan Antonio SpursWashington Capitals

    My favorite seasons:
    1. Summer
    2. Fall
    3. End of quarter random Twitter posts
    4. Spring
    5. Winter
     
    Arliden, Doc Louis, captbunch and 2 others like this.
  3. HuskerInMiami

    HuskerInMiami Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Miami DolphinsNebraska Cornhuskers

    Can you explain how this made you $825? Your life fascinates me.
     
  4. Joe_Pesci

    Joe_Pesci How can less be more? It's impossible
    Donor
    Wolfsburg

    Lol you lost money betting they'd be bankrupt like 6 months ago
     
    Arliden likes this.
  5. Doc Louis

    Doc Louis Well-Known Member
    Donor

    It might be lower for them but in general Q2 & Q3 are strong for sales volume
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/671496/quarterly-vehicle-sales-united-states/
     
    Where Eagles Dare likes this.
  6. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    I had a bunch of $300 puts that expired in January. I was ~4 Months too early
     
  7. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Just closed out the remaining 25 outs at $4.85.

    Made $4325. Not bad
     
  8. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    Just bought 25 $232.5 outs that expire today for $1.80
     
  9. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
    Donor TMB OG

    So...need it to go under 230.70 to make money?
     
  10. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    Bought some 3/20/20 215 calls in early June, sold them on the 5th. Would've liked to have sold them on the 3rd but work and forgetting the market closed early pre 4th cost me.
     
  11. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    Wait what? You bet on the stock going down?
     
  12. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    No a call is when you expect it to go up, puts are when you expect it to go down.
     
    captbunch likes this.
  13. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    Ahh missed that part. How do those work? You bought them for $215?
     
  14. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    No, its a different cost structure. These were trading at 36.70 per share, but you have to buy a 100 shares in each contract so 1 contract was $3,670. Bought 7 and sold at 52.05, could've done better but shit got in the way like I said.

    You are betting its over $215 on march 20th (the reality is if you held till March 20th you'd need it to be around $250 due to time decay).

    Easier to show via a chart below is a March 20 2020 call at 245 with current prices. Every box shows % return.

    Screen Shot 2019-07-08 at 11.25.45 AM.png
     
    HuskerInMiami and dblplay1212 like this.
  15. pianoman

    pianoman my drinks are free
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesChicago CubsDetroit Red Wings

    No, 215 is the strike price meaning he needs the stock to be over 215 on 3/20/20 for them to have value. By buying them in early June he bought them when they were below $215 or what is called "out of the money" so they were priced at about $35 an option. Then since the price has risen over 215 significantly they're "in the money" and they're trading at about $52 an option right now. If he had held them he could exercise them and would have the right to buy 100 shares of the stock on 3/20/20 for $215 a share and then if the price was higher than that he could immediately turn around and sell it for a profit.
     
  16. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington RedskinsAtlanta United

    I commend yalls risk tolerance for options
     
    Louis Holth and CoastalOrange like this.
  17. pianoman

    pianoman my drinks are free
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesChicago CubsDetroit Red Wings

    Go big or go home. Options trading is way more fun than just stock trading, also considerably more heartbreaking.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  18. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    i flushed away my profit on friday. :(
     
    Where Eagles Dare likes this.
  19. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    I would love ot mess with options but I just don't follow the market enough to really do it.
     
  20. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member


    Also its not really understood on here but the basic napkin math on Tesla is this:

    Example:
    25k S/X with a $25,000 average margin= 625M
    75k 3 with a $10,000 average margin= 750M
    Gross profit from autos: 1.375 B

    Teslas costs per quarter are roughly 1.5B each quarter or 6 B a year
    Opex (R&D+SG&A) = 1.1B a quarter
    Service 150 M
    Interest 150 M
    Income tax etc. 50 M

    with Q2 production numbers:

    17.5k S/X at 25,000 avg margin
    77.5k 3 at 10,000 avg margin
    GP from autos is like 1.2B

    They wont pull a profit.

    Now you'll say well how did they pull a profit in Q3 and Q4? Thats because their ASP on the 3 and therefore the margins were significantly higher in Q3 and Q4 when they only sold LR versions to North America.
     
    HuskerInMiami likes this.
  21. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    So going forward heres the story:

    -Teslas fixed costs will have to stay relatively flat around 6B to 6.5B.

    -Generate cash from operations and get to 2020 where they add new models like the Y, Semi, Truck, etc.

    -Can they improve margins and keep the average sales price above 50k while introducing the SR+ and abroad.
     
    Eric The Viking likes this.
  22. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    Normally I wouldn't but Elon's "leaked emails" were showing their cards. Plus if you know where to look you can kind of keep a pulse on deliveries.
     
  23. Prospector

    Prospector I am not a new member
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    craps vs. blackjack imo
     
  24. BP

    BP Bout to Regulate.
    Donor
    Atlanta BravesGeorgia BulldogsAtlanta Falcons

  25. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    :laugh:

    He's saying they are going to stop making cars. That comes across as a desperate attempt to push cars now. There's zero chance they stop making cars. :facepalm:

    https://electrek.co/2019/07/08/tesla-will-stop-selling-cars-full-self-driving-elon-musk/


    Do consumers have limited time left to buy a Tesla car, since prices would have to go up severalfold to balance supply & demand once you solve FSD?

    — Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) July 8, 2019



    And Musk answered, short and sweet, in one word:

    Yes

    — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 8, 2019
     
  26. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington RedskinsAtlanta United

    Can't sell a 250k vehicle that only increases in price for 35k

    That's just business
     
  27. Mix

    Mix I deserve to be blown before the Jacuzzi
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    UCF KnightsPittsburgh PenguinsOrlando CityPittsburgh Steelers

    Is the gist of the plan that in the future car ownership will be dead or near dead? Everyone just renting time as needed? I could see that happening in 20+ years
     
    THF likes this.
  28. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    Yea, basically Elon’s thought is Tesla owners would rent out their cars at all times and Tesla itself would have its own fleet.
     
  29. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    I could only see that in large cities. I drive 20 miles one way to get to work and pass 2 stop lights and 1 grocery store on the way. Too much land outside of the cities to not always have a car available.
     
  30. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington RedskinsAtlanta United

    Yup, I know people in Atlanta that use Uber exclusively b/c it is cheaper than owning a car. That's basically the principal of Zip car too.

    I don't know how fast we'll get there. I think the reasonable approach will be FSD will be available and "buying into" the Tesla Car Share network will be expensive.

    Then you can have best of both worlds
     
  31. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    Right. You live in a rural area. Your kid falls and busts their head open and needs to get to the hospital. Are you going to wait 30 minutes for a car to show up? Fuck no.
     
    Eric The Viking likes this.
  32. Mix

    Mix I deserve to be blown before the Jacuzzi
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    UCF KnightsPittsburgh PenguinsOrlando CityPittsburgh Steelers

    I will not apologize for my big city liberal bias.
     
    Where Eagles Dare likes this.
  33. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    When I say big city, I'm talking the heart of NYC, LA, and Chicago. A city like Tampa or Jax isn't big enough to have a robo taxi sitting at the end of your block when you walk outside.
     
  34. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    Also, 3 of my coworkers in rural upstate SC own Model 3s.
     
    Clemson327, Bankz and Arliden like this.
  35. Mix

    Mix I deserve to be blown before the Jacuzzi
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    UCF KnightsPittsburgh PenguinsOrlando CityPittsburgh Steelers

    You have sprawl issues in new South cities but I think there is enough density in certain areas for it to work well in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, ATL
     
    Harrison Beck likes this.
  36. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    Yea the very central downtown areas it would work. But man you're cutting off the majority of the country if people outside of those areas can't buy your car.
     
  37. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    I mean we are discussing something that MAY show up a decade from now.

    Maybe Tesla is the first to solve FSD, therefore just offers subscription services and their business model is completely different. Maybe that has a huge margin and beats the hell out of making cars and so they abandon that.

    Someone else can fill the selling cars to rural places void it doesn't have to be whoever solves FSD.
     
  38. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    i'll prob just keep owning my own car
     
  39. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    There's never going to be a time when Tesla is unwilling to sell a car to John in Montana.
     
  40. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    These are hypothetical scenarios so no point in arguing about it.
     
  41. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    looking out my office window in houston i can see approximately 2,500 cars.

    all of these people will be in rideshare robotaxis in 15 years? not likely.
     
    texasraider, letan and dblplay1212 like this.
  42. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    Elon is speaking in absolutes.
     
  43. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    A lot of them probably will be.

    Tesla won't tell the rest they can't buy their own Tesla.
     
  44. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas Razorbacks

    If that happens the urban sprawl will be insane

    If you want to read an account of the sprawl that occurred when cars were introduced read the magnificent ambersons

    Won the Pulitzer in 1910s and is great
     
  45. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    Elon believes or says lots of things.

    I can see a realm where they stop selling cars, but its not worth arguing about because a lot of technological advances would need to happen first for this to happen.
     
  46. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    Let's be honest, Elon could say he's going to have day trips to the moon that cost $20 and say "Well it could happen..."
     
  47. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    We could (meaning we could argue in circles all day). Ones reusable rockets and solving Fusion.

    The other is a camera perception equation.


    I just think if Tesla is the first to get FSD I see a path where they don’t have to sell cars. They become what Uber/Lyft want to be.
     
  48. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville JaguarsTiger Woods2pacSneakersWu-tang

    They can make money from the Uber side in metro areas and still make money by selling cars to people in other areas. They aren't just going to turn away people from buying their car.
     
  49. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member

    Why would you sell a car that could then compete against you. Why wouldn’t you keep that car to make money for you.

    One nets you 10k the other can net you 200k.
     
  50. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington RedskinsAtlanta United

    This is something that will be a segment and not force everyone to use.

    I know people in ATL that do this now. I know ppl that are bikes/transit only, no cars.

    He isn't going to take away people's cars