It's absolutely a fair value draft pick-wise, but I wouldn't do it. I'm not nearly as down on Tua as most of the non-Bama TMB contingent though. Three 1s plus Tua is a lot of you have confidence in Tua
nick wright made the argument that khalil mack, jamal adams and jalen ramsey got 2 first rounders apeice, so thats the going rate. He'd rather have watson then all 3 of those guys put together. So, by default, a prime star QB like Watson is worth 6 first rounders. That begins to get close to a fair trade for his value
Not all 1s are the same, though. If they made this kind of trade before the draft, I think this is where you can't really compare this to any of that kind of stuff from the past because this would be unprecedented for a QB of Watson's caliber. When those teams traded for those three players, the assumption was those picks would be somewhere in the 20s, and at least outside the top 10 barring catastrophe. If you're trading Watson before the draft, there's a massive difference between the 2nd pick and the 12th pick, for example, if we're comparing the Jets to the 49ers. In a draft where there are legit QBs to take at #2 or #3 (NYJ and MIA), those picks alone are worth the 12th pick + at least a 2/3 this year and a 1 next year. And I'm not sure even that gets it done.
The Saints pick 28th. If they wanted to replace Brees with Wilson or Fields by moving into the top 3, what would they have to give up? The minimum would almost have to be something like three 1s, two or three 2s, plus some other picks sprinkled in. If we're talking about Watson, the Saints could offer five 1st round picks and not be able to beat a NYJ or MIA offer of two 1s and a 2, or something like that.
The Raiders chose the Bears in the Mack deal over a similar deal from GB because they figured the picks from Chicago would be higher than the Packers. At least after year 1, that was far from the case. But if you put Mack on GB they probably flip spots so probably made no difference.
there is absolutely no way that the texans can possibly get a fair value for a player like deshaun. which is why the franchise should be contracted if they are stupid enough to trade him
My guess is we would have to trade one of our young stars like Lattimore or Ramz with multiple picks. Hopefully we try, but I don’t see a path. Payton’s offense with Watson would be fun to watch.
I honestly feel bad for whoever ends up taking that job. Easy for me to say sitting here but I think I'd tell the Texans thanks but no thanks if I'm Bieniemy at this point.
if they retain Watson it's a pretty great job IMO. Dude is a top five QB and that's a pretty big deal. Colts have no clarity at the QB spot. Titans were historically bad in some areas on D this year and need to replace a superstar OC. And the Jags are in the same division, so that's a big plus regardless of Lawrence likely going there
If they keep Watson it's not bad but Im starting to actually believe they may be dumb enough to move him.
If they can keep Watson this offseason, I don't think it's over and they'll just move forward. Watson combined for 37 TDs and almost 5500 total yards last year, and the Texans finished with the third-worst record in the league. They're well over the cap currently and don't pick in the first two rounds. Even if he likes the coaching hire enough to not demand a trade and make things ugly, it's pretty unlikely that situation gets much better in the next 12 months unless there's a ton of internal improvement that happens with a new coach. What happens then if he was already unhappy going into the season?
Why aren't they asking Dabo to name his price? He checks the religious box and might be able to convince Watson to say. The funny thing is Easterby sounds like Dabo if Dabo never got into coaching.
barnwell article on trade ideas for the 17 teams who either would be able or willing to go after deshaun
What sort of return could the Texans get for Tunsil? I could get onboard with the scenario Barnwell gives for a trade with the Dolphins, but excluding the Bears. Keep Tua + the Dolphins’ picks, draft Sewell, trade Tunsil for additional picks to continue the rebuild. This also could have been accomplished by the Texans never trading that 3rd overall to the Dolphins in the first place, but fuck BOB forever.
The problem with the whole idea of the trade and the reason you never see young star QBs in their prime move is that you just aren't gonna get full value for it.
In a backwards way it might be more desirable. I don't see a path to winning any time soon for that roster with or without Watson. If they trade him you at least have the built in excuse of starting a rebuild, and some draft resources to make that happen. With Watson they will still stink and have no resources to improve.
Yep Houston is in an unpredecented deep hole with contracts & draft picks available in the coming years, so they should take unpredecented action You cant hand wave away BOB screwing the franchise, plus the owner being a dumbass, plus Easterby, plus JJ Watt telling Watson to GTFO while he can, plus... Whoever offers the most and is approved by watson, pull the trigger