This is the sixth time in MLB history a team has thrown a no hitter and lost. Every day is a new record. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33923277/cincinnati-reds-allow-hit-fall-1-0-pittsburgh-pirates
Ashcraft has really come out of nowhere. Wasn't ever one of our top prospects but has filthy stuff. He walked a lot of guys in the minors so I guess we'll see if he can stay good in the majors the more teams see him. Really like our young pitchers, now need to find some other hitters to go with India and Stephenson.
Can’t expect much for a platoon OF and a pitcher with an ERA over 11. Two upside lottery tickets, I’ll take it.
Oh yeah I guess that's reasonable. I didn't even see who they were giving up. I just felt like being negative.
Yeah anything we can get for Naquin is fine. He was never going to being back top tier prospects. It's the Castillo and Mahle trades they need to nail.
Wasn't sure what the initial tweet was referencing at first and got scared that they traded Castillo for nothing. Lol were people expecting a real return for those guys?
Seems like a good haul. Would have preferred a top 25 prospect that was closer to the majors but we’re not winning anything in the near future anyways.
Seems like a good haul and baseball economics and Phil make it have to happen. But fuck losing Luis love that dude. Him and Johnny have been absolute treats to watch.
Also very excited to actually trade for prospects instead of 25 year old second baseman who are major league ready.
Buddy of mine was all hyped up today, “Reds got a haul for Castillo”. Had to remind him that there’s no such thing as single A stars. We’ll find out in 3 years if they got a haul.
Spoiler Law: Mariners go all-in for Luis Castillo, sending the Reds 2 top prospects and more By Keith Law Jul 30, 2022 151 The Mariners just landed probably the best pitcher who’ll change teams this month, sending four prospects, including their top two at the moment, to Cincinnati for right-hander Luis Castillo. Castillo is an above-average starter who’s been very durable for the Reds. He works mostly off his fastball, averaging 97 mph on the pitch and getting more whiffs on the four-seamer (as classified by Statcast) this year than on anything else he throws. His changeup has been his best off-speed pitch over his tenure with the Reds, ranking among the best in baseball in 2018-19, although it has been less effective this year as it’s been harder and more true. He has a slider that has always outplayed its quality, as it’s not a high spin pitch and has a very short break, but before this year he would miss a lot of bats with it anyway. It’s just very deceptive, with spin direction opposite that of his other pitches, and without much horizontal movement it probably looks to a lot of hitters like a changeup or even a fastball until it starts to drop. He has cut his walk rate this year from when he led the NL in free passes in 2021, so he’s over three wins above replacement this year already and likely to produce another two before the season is out. It’s a curious move for Seattle, though, as the Mariners’ rotation isn’t an area of weakness. What Castillo could provide is innings, as two of the five Seattle starters are young ’uns in Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, neither of whom has ever seen 150 innings in a professional season. None of the five starters is a free agent after the season, though, so the Mariners will have six starters going into 2023 unless another trade is coming. Castillo is also an insurance policy against an unexpected injury somewhere in the rotation down the stretch, because after the lone trade deadline you don’t have another way to cover a sudden player loss. Noelvi Marte runs the bases with the Modesto Nuts last season. (Larry Goren / Four Seam Images via Associated Press) The Mariners sure paid a premium for that insurance, though. They traded the two best prospects still in their system, plus another solid prospect and a minor-league reliever, for a year and a third of Castillo. Shortstop Noelvi Marte, who is No. 12 on my midseason prospect rankings, moved up to the top spot on the org list after Julio Rodríguez graduated. Marte got off to a slow start in High A this year but has been raking for about two months now, making more contact, hitting for more power and getting on base, all of which are things he can do regularly. He’s more physically mature than the typical 20-year-old, and he might have lost a little speed since last year, which probably increases the odds that he moves off shortstop, probably to third base. He has good hands and a plus arm to stay there as long as he doesn’t slow down too much, but the OBP and power combination will play anywhere. Edwin Arroyo is currently in the honorable mentions for my midseason top-60 rankings, as the Mariners’ second-round pick from last year has been one of the best hitters in the Low-A California League this year despite being its youngest regular. He’s hitting .316/.385/.514 with just a 22 percent strikeout rate, stealing 21 times in 25 attempts, all as an 18-year-old who is actually younger than the Mariners’ first-round pick from this year, Pennsylvania high school shortstop Cole Young. Arroyo projects to stay at shortstop, and with the way he’s showing contact and power already, he might end up in Noelvi’s territory as a potential star. The Reds also gained two other pitchers in the deal. Right-hander Levi Stoudt is a starter in Double A who works mostly fastball-changeup but has suffered for his lack of an average breaking ball, giving up a .512 slugging percentage to right-handed batters. His stuff backed up some this year as well, and he can’t succeed with lower velocity. Right-handed reliever Andrew Moore, who is not that Andrew Moore (drafted by Seattle in 2015) but a different Andrew Moore (drafted by Seattle in 2021), is probably just an organizational arm in the end, a reliever in High A now who has walked too many guys but throws hard and has a solid enough changeup that might help him get to the majors. The two bats coming back to Cincinnati could be difference-makers, with some risk in each case but more than enough upside to justify the move, and it feels like the Reds went for ceiling here rather than playing it safe. The Mariners didn’t necessarily need Castillo, but he was the best starter out there, and if he’s the addition who ends their playoff drought, I don’t think anyone will question the cost. The Reds do have to trade Tyler Mahle at this point — there is no reason to keep him when his value is only going to go down from here as he approaches free agency after next year, and with Frankie Montas just back from a shoulder injury, Mahle might be the best starter available.
Law posted his mid season updated top 60 prospects today. de la Cruz is 8, Marte 12, Cam Collier (this years first round pick) 29 and Arroyo in others receiving votes. Spoiler Top 60 MLB prospects: Keith Law’s updated 2022 midseason ranking Keith Law Aug 1, 2022 289 This is my midpoint check-in on the best prospects still in the minors, including players drafted two weeks ago who have signed by now but have not debuted in pro ball. As with my offseason list, I’m focused more on ceiling than floor, but I do consider the player’s probability of reaching his ceiling or something close to it. I say within these capsules that the prospect I consider the highest-ceiling guy on the list is not actually at No. 1. Please keep in mind that my offseason top-100 ranking is a month-long process, while this ranking is more of a week-plus process, and has some more built-in recency bias than the rankings I run every February. Note that this list only includes players currently in the minor leagues who retain rookie eligibility. These are not the same criteria I use for offseason lists, where I only go by rookie eligibility regardless of roster status, since there is no active 26-man roster in the winter. Spencer Torkelson isn’t here because he exceeded the limits for rookie eligibility, Shane Baz isn’t here because he’s on the major-league roster (and injured list, unfortunately), and Brayan Bello isn’t here because he’s also on the major-league roster at this writing. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks Previous ranking: No. 16 Carroll slid to the 16th pick in the 2019 draft — he was fourth on my final Big Board — and had a great start to his pro career that summer before losing the next two years to the pandemic and a shoulder injury he suffered after playing just seven games in 2021. The D-Backs, however, sent him right to Double A this year, trusting in the 21-year-old’s exceptional makeup. He’s mashed both there and in Triple A, with a .312/.440/.647 composite line, 20 homers, eight triples and 25 steals in 28 attempts. He’s an 80 runner underway who can play plus defense in center, makes a ton of hard contact and has plus power, along with an incredible work ethic. The only reason I might pump the brakes on his hype is that both of his home parks this year are strong hitters’ environments, although he’s hit well on the road too. He looks like he’s going to be a superstar and should see the majors before the year is out. Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles Previous ranking: No. 73 The O’s have split Henderson’s time in the field almost evenly between his two positions. While he’s at least a solid-average defender at short, he might end up a Gold Glover at third, and I think he’ll provide more value at the hot corner. He’s shown a huge capacity for making adjustments at the plate over his two full years in pro ball, especially against right-handed pitchers, whom he’s dominated so far this year. He’s still got some work to do against lefties. Since he reached Triple A, he’s been hitting the ball on the ground more, so he might not be ready for an imminent call-up, but he has huge upside on both sides of the ball and could be the Orioles’ best defensive player since Manny Machado. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers Previous ranking: Unranked My No. 8 Brewers prospect coming into the season is now their No. 1, as he skipped over the Arizona Complex League and went right to A-ball as an 18-year-old and started to hit for a lot of power, slugging .600 in Low A before a promotion in late July to High A. He’s added a little bit of a stride before he swings, getting his legs more involved, but it looks like a lot of the power just comes from his wrists. He’s at least a 70 runner and a no-doubt centerfielder who gets raves from scouts for his overall feel for the game and on-field demeanor. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers Previous ranking: No. 13 Cartaya played just a month last year, all in Low A, before an injury ended his season. While that was a very good month indeed (.298/.409/.614), it was fair to question whether that was a meaningful sample. He’s done the same thing all year now, earning a promotion to High A, all at age 20, with 17 homers and a .408 OBP for the season. Scouts say he’s improved behind the plate enough that he’s clearly going to stay there, although he still needs some work coming out to catch the ball further from his body and streamlining his release on throws. It won’t matter much with this kind of power and OBP. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays Previous ranking: No. 6 There’s no real reason for Moreno to be on this list, when he should be in the majors — the Blue Jays optioned him because they activated Danny Jansen from the injured list and already have Alejandro Kirk in the midst of a huge breakout season. In almost any other organization, Moreno would be in the big leagues, as he played well in his brief stint with Toronto and doesn’t have much to learn in Triple A. At this writing, he’s had a hit in every game since the demotion, and continues to make a ton of contact. He’s hitting more groundballs this year than before, with less power, but even as an 8-to-12 homer guy with high OBPs and plus defense, including at least a 70 arm, he projects as a longtime regular who’ll make some All-Star teams. Francisco Álvarez (Lauren Haak / Buffalo Bisons) Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets Previous ranking: No. 8 If you throw defense out, Álvarez is probably the best prospect in the minors — which is not to say he’s a bad defender, just that it costs him the top spot. He ranks second in the Double-A Eastern League in slugging at .558, although he was promoted earlier this month, and 13th in OBP, as one of the youngest players there at 20. He’s an adequate defender, but that’s probably it, and scouts have been harder on his receiving as he’s been catching better stuff. His bat will play anywhere, though, so he could come up and DH some this season and still help the club. Jordan Walker, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals Previous ranking: No. 30 Walker’s ascent through the minors has been astonishing. As one of the best pure athletes in the 2020 draft class, the main question everyone seemed to have was whether he was ready to hit. He’s continued to do so, hitting and drawing walks, making contact in Double A this year as a 20-year-old, and showing doubles power that I think will translate into a lot of home run power down the road. The main question now is his position, as he’s really big for third base and might still get bigger, so it’s a good thing his bat will profile just fine in right field. Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds Previous ranking: No. 69 If we’re just going on upside, de la Cruz is the best prospect in the minors right now; he just carries more risk than some of the players ahead of him, stemming from the hit tool. De la Cruz is an incredible athlete, with 80 raw power and 80 running speed, lightning quick hands, and a 70 arm. He has the tools and agility to stay at shortstop, although he’s not consistent on defense and is going to be very big for the position. He does swing and miss too often, including on pitches in-zone, but that’s why he’s not at No. 1. There is a much lower probability for de la Cruz than the seven guys ahead of him, but his ceiling tops them all. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees Previous ranking: No. 10 After a slow start in Double A, Volpe has resumed hitting like he did in 2021, with a .310/391/.583 line since the start of June and 19 steals. He’s at least a plus hitter with above-average power, and already passed his 2021 stolen total thanks to above-average speed and outstanding instincts on the bases. He’s a no-doubt shortstop who should end up a plus defender there. I think he’ll be in the majors by this time next year, soon enough to justify the Yankees’ decision to pass on the big free agent shortstops of last winter. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks Previous ranking: No. 31 There was a lot of talk last spring that Lawlar might be the best prospect in the draft class, but between his age (he turned 19 the week of the draft) and some small questions about his hit tool, he slid to the D-Backs at the sixth pick. After a shoulder injury in his second pro game ended his 2021 season, he went to Low A to start this year and hit .351/.447/.603 with 24 steals in 44 games before a promotion to High A last month. He did miss a month with a back injury, but health has been his only issue so far in pro ball. Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami Previous ranking: No. 64 Pérez has no business throwing strikes as easily as he does with the way he’s built and the way he pitches, and yet he does, all 6-foot-9 of him. Coming from a low slot that puts more life on his fastball, he’s up to 99 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a changeup that’s at least plus, maybe a 70, and a slider he just started throwing this year. The Marlins have been careful with his workload, so the 19-year-old hasn’t reached 90 pitches in any game, but so far he’s striking out over a third of opposing batters with just a 6 percent walk rate. He’s a No. 1 starter in the making. Noelvi Marte, SS, Cincinnati Reds Previous ranking: No. 11 The best prospect of the four heading back to the Reds for Luis Castillo, Marte got off to a slow start this year, but the big-bodied shortstop has been hitting the cover off the ball for the last six weeks, more than doubling his season home run total in that span while walking about as often as he strikes out. I think he’s going to outgrow shortstop, and he’s lost a little speed as he’s filled out even since last season, but he has the hands and arm to move to third. He’s already outpacing his offensive performance from last year and is still just 20 years old in High A. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants Previous ranking: No. 15 Luciano was off to a great start in High A when a lower back strain put his season on hold in mid-June, and he’s still on the injured list at this writing. He continued to hit for average and show power, returning to a level where he struggled last year and improving across the board. But for a guy who already projected to move off shortstop due to his frame, a back injury doesn’t boost his odds of staying there. His bat still projects to be an impact one at any position. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles Previous ranking: No. 14 Another player in a holding pattern due to injury, Rodriguez was dominating Triple A when he strained a lat muscle in early June, potentially ending his season even though the injury didn’t seem that severe. It’s a great sign that he moved to Triple A, where they see major-league baseball, and had no problem adjusting, continuing to work with an elite fastball that can touch 100 mph with more vertical and horizontal movement than the typical four-seamer. His secondary stuff isn’t quite as good, although they play up because hitters are so geared up to hit (or not hit, more likely) the fastball. The lost innings are a shame, as he could be in the big leagues improving his slider and changeup, but perhaps he’ll get that in the Fall League or elsewhere. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox Previous ranking: No. 18 Mayer was the fourth pick in last year’s draft, No. 1 on my final Big Board, and has hit well so far in Low A despite a wrist injury and some minor back soreness. He is showing patience, doubles power and speed while playing plus defense at shortstop. He’s had a bit more swing and miss than I anticipated, especially on stuff in the zone, although I’m less concerned seeing that in a 19-year-old making his full-season debut than I would for an older or more experienced player. As the doubles power — he’s second in his league in doubles so far — turns into more home run power, he’ll get toward that huge upside everyone saw in him in the draft. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants Previous ranking: No. 82 Harrison is now third in the minors in strikeouts, doing so with far fewer batters faced than the two pitchers ahead of him, working with a wipeout slider, a 92-94 mph fastball with good ride and a solid-average changeup. The delivery is funky and should be hard to repeat, but he does so, consistently, and benefits from the deception it provides. As long as he stays healthy, he’s got No. 1 starter upside. Henry Davis (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press) Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates Previous ranking: No. 20 The first pick in last year’s draft has played well when he hasn’t been on the injured list, where he’s spent most of this season with a non-displaced fracture in his wrist. Prior to his most recent IL stint, he’d hit .269/.399/.483, mostly in High A, catching reasonably well with a low caught stealing rate, and he’s continued to be very hard to strike out. This might be something of a lost year for Davis if the wrist issue lingers, and he might not have his usual power or strength even if he returns, but he did show enough to keep his standing as a potential All-Star at catcher. Robert Hassell III, OF, San Diego Padres Previous ranking: No. 24 Hassell was the Padres’ first-round pick in the 2020 draft and has hit for average with doubles power in both years in pro ball, while playing better defense in center than expected. He does everything well and nothing poorly, from defense to hitting to baserunning, lacking only plus power at this point — although that might still come. I think it’s more likely he settles in as a 15-20 homer guy, but with a 60 or 70 hit tool. That player in center field is a hell of a regular. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals Previous ranking: Unranked If you saw just one thing from the Futures Game, I hope it was Winn’s throw from shortstop, which was harder than any shortstop throw to first in the major leagues … ever. Well, ever recorded by Statcast, at least, and that wasn’t around when Shawon Dunston played. Winn does have a cannon, but his bat has been way beyond expectations in pro ball, as the two-way player, drafted in the second round in 2021, was supposed to be kind of raw at the plate. He has incredible bat speed, and he’s calmed down his approach while showing solid plate discipline. Few players can match the upside here, given Winn’s tools and athleticism. George Valera, OF, Cleveland Guardians Previous ranking: No. 29 Valera continues to show power and patience as a 21-year-old in Double A, while even improving his results against left-handed pitching (in a small sample). He still has projection left, with a swing that will let him get to 30-homer power at his peak, and he plays solid-average defense in right field. With his patience, he should end up a middle-of-the-order bat once he finishes filling out. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians Previous ranking: No. 22 Rocchio is another member of the slow-start club this year, but has returned to form recently, once again making a ton of contact while hitting for power and playing strong defense at short. He’s a switch-hitter and above-average runner, although once again, he’s been below par as a base stealer (9 for 15 this year). Even with the disappointing first two months, he’s still at .269/.357/.442 as a 21-year-old in Double A, and likely to improve on that before the year is out. Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks Previous ranking: 2022 No. 2 draft pick Jones was the No. 1 prospect in this year’s draft class and the second pick, but, as you probably know, after signing he hurt his shoulder taking batting practice before he got into a game. He’s a plus defender in center, following in his father’s footsteps, with power and speed, while the main question was how advanced his bat was at the time of the draft. We may have to wait for him to make his pro debut until next year to find out. Zac Veen, OF, Colorado Rockies Previous ranking: No. 23 Veen is pretty tooled up, with above-average speed that he deploys ridiculously well on the bases — he’s 44 for 47 (94 percent) stealing this year — and plus raw power that is gradually showing up more in games. He’s incredibly projectable still, even at 20, and should end up a plus defender in right field, where the Rockies have played him. He’s also cut his strikeout rate this year even with the move up to High A, possibly the best indication at his potential to continue developing as a hitter. Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Guardians Previous ranking: No. 51 Espino would be higher on the list if he hadn’t spent almost this whole year on the IL with patellar tendinitis in his left knee, making just four starts in April. When he pitched, he looked like a future No. 1 starter, working in the upper 90s with a slider that would show plus, although his changeup still lags behind. He also walked just four batters in those four starts and was throwing more strikes in general, although it’s too small a sample to draw a conclusion yet. We just need to see him pitching again, and to know this knee injury isn’t a long-term concern. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies Previous ranking: Unranked The Rockies bumped Tovar up to Double A this year, even though he had just 32 games at High A and didn’t hit there at all last year. But he has risen to the challenge, hitting .318/.386/.546 and already blowing past his walk total from the year before. He’s a true shortstop with solid to plus tools across the board, but went from a too-aggressive approach to a disciplined one, letting the bat speed produce more contact and above-average power already. He’s just 20 and has some physical development ahead of him, but this skills growth is a fantastic sign for him. Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers Previous ranking: No. 50 Miller probably has the crown for the best pure stuff of any starter in the minors right now, with a fastball up to 102 mph, two distinct breaking balls, and a changeup that has come and gone this year. He does get hit more than someone with his stuff should, given the velocity and movement on his four-seamer, and there are some modest delivery concerns. The changeup looked like it would be a better weapon for him, but he’s had more trouble with left-handed batters this year and scouts report it’s been far less consistent. He’s got No. 1 starter upside given this stuff, with the high-spin curveball plus and the slider not far from it, but some risk that he underperforms his arsenal, too. DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles Previous ranking: No. 81 Hall can show you three above-average to plus pitches on any given night, with a good delivery and incredible athleticism that give hope that he’ll get to average control in the near future, while also making it surprising he’s not there yet. He did miss most of 2021 with an elbow issue that didn’t require surgery, and of course as I write this his last start was a disaster (six runs on six hits in just two-thirds of an inning). But even so, he’s striking out 38 percent of batters on the year in Triple A, working with the major-league ball. It’s a four-pitch mix, up to 99 mph with a big action changeup and high spin on the curveball, enough that you can dream and see an ace … but he’s going to need at least another full grade of control to get there. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs Previous ranking: Unranked Crow-Armstrong has one of the highest floors of anyone in the minors, because he’s going to be at least a 60 defender in center, probably 70, who’ll hit — everyone agrees he’s going to hit. More of a contact/speed hitter in high school, he’s changed his stance and swing since hurting his shoulder last spring, starting more upright and less open, getting into his legs more to get to more power for 13 homers this year between Low and High A. The Mets’ first-round pick from 2020 played in just six games in 2021, then went to the Cubs in the Javier Báez trade. This year marked his Cubs debut, and now he’s their best prospect, a true centerfielder with very strong hit/OBP skills who might end up surprising us all with 20-ish homers at his peak. Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds Previous ranking: 2022 No. 18 draft pick Collier was the 18th pick in this year’s draft, a 17-year-old who played for Chipola College, the top JUCO program in the country, and showed plus raw power (but not game) along with an advanced feel to hit for his age. He’s got great hands and a plus arm, giving him a good chance to stay at third base in the long run, even though he’s likely to get a good bit bigger. The son of former MLB outfielder Lou Collier, Cam has a solid approach but it’s more geared to contact than power. As he learns to get to that power more in games, we’ll see more of his very high ceiling as a middle-of-the-order bat, with some floor because he’s got a very good chance to hit for average, too. Termarr Johnson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates Previous ranking: 2022 No. 4 draft pick Owner of the best pure hit tool in the draft class this year, Johnson has a sweet left-handed swing that produces hard contact, has shown he can hit good quality pitching and has some of the best makeup for a high schooler in recent memory. He has a great understanding of hitting and often functioned as an extra coach for his high school team — even when he was on base. He’s a solid-average runner, maybe a tick above, who’ll probably move to second or third in pro ball. I haven’t met or talked to any scout who doubts that Johnson, at the very least, is going to hit for average, making him unusually high probability for a high school hitter. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox Previous ranking: No. 56 Casas’ 2022 season has been a disappointment, mostly because an ankle sprain kept him out for nearly two months, although he also hasn’t hit as well as expected in the 43 games he’s played for Triple-A Worcester. Casas projects to hit for average and 25-30 homer power, with a solid eye at the plate that should produce above-average OBPs. His production issues this year are mostly around his struggles against lefties, which was true in 2021, as well. He will need to close that gap fairly soon, but his eye and his two-strike approach give reason to think he’ll be able to do so. Gavin Stone, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers Previous ranking: Unranked Signed for just $100,000 as a money-saving pick in the last round of the truncated 2020 draft, Stone now has a 1.50 ERA in 84 innings between High A and Double A this season, with a 33 percent strikeout rate and 8 percent walk rate. He still hasn’t allowed a homer in 11 Double-A starts, somehow, even though it feels like almost every hitter is trying to put the ball in the seats. Stone is 95-97 mph with a 65 changeup, so he’s had a reverse platoon split this year — lefties are hitting .198/.235/.204 against him, with one (1!) extra-base hit this year. As a short right-hander without much depth on his breaking ball, he might have a lower ceiling than the stat line implies, but this guy is banging on the door of a big-league rotation right now. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates Previous ranking: No. 57 Priester missed two months after straining an oblique muscle in his last spring training outing, and the Pirates brought him back cautiously, but he’s back to full strength and full pitch counts now and looks like he did at the end of last season. Priester has four pitches, working up to 97 mph with the potential for any of the other three pitches to end up plus, although I don’t think any is there yet. He drives the fastball down in the zone but can miss bats with it up top, the curveball has solid spin rates with a ton of depth, and he has good deception and tail on the changeup when he doesn’t overthrow it. He’s got a great delivery and fields his position well, with some room to continue filling out. He might be a mid-rotation guy with the stuff he has now, but has the chance to be a No. 2 if any of the secondaries becomes an out pitch. Miguel Vargas, 3B/IF, Los Angeles Dodgers Previous ranking: No. 62 Vargas just keeps on hitting, with a .294/.385/.504 line so far in Triple A as a 22-year-old, making a ton of hard contact and hitting all pitch types. He’s still more of a contact/doubles hitter than a big power guy, although that can change quickly when you have the hard contact skill (especially when you’re a Dodger), and he’s probably not going to stay at third in the long term. There’s a chance he gets to 25-plus homers, though, and a chance he stays at third; it’s just more likely he’s a high-average 20ish homer guy at first who’s an above-average regular for a long time. Brennen Davis (Matt Kartozian / USA Today) Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs Previous ranking: No. 28 Davis had a rough start to the season and ended up having surgery on his lower back in early June, which was thought to be the end of his 2022 season, but there’s a chance we’ll see him before the minor-league season wraps up or in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, he’s shown plus raw power and could end up a 25-30 homer guy who gets on base at an above-average clip and plays strong defense in right field. We may not see that version of Davis again until he gets a full offseason of rehab and rest. Taj Bradley, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays Previous ranking: No. 58 Bradley started the Futures Game for the American League and sat 95-97 mph in his inning of work, while throwing his slider/cutter at 89-92 mph. He’s got a third pitch, a hard changeup that he’ll use often to lefties, and a great delivery that should make him a durable starter. He’s really athletic and still looks like he’s going to get stronger. I think there’s one more step of development here for the 21-year-old, who just reached Triple A and dominated in his first start for Durham. Gavin Williams, RHP, Cleveland Guardians Previous ranking: Unranked Williams was the 23rd pick in 2021, but has exploded since then, striking out 40 percent of batters in High A. He has a fastball he runs up to 98 mph that misses bats and a four-pitch mix that should leave him with at least one plus secondary pitch, with the changeup the laggard right now. He’s been durable so far in pro ball, with a short arm action he repeats well, although his strike-throwing has taken a hit after a recent promotion to Double A. He’s definitely a starter if he stays healthy, at least a mid-rotation guy, but could end up a No. 1 depending on how good his offspeed stuff gets. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets Previous ranking: No. 41 Baty is doing exactly what he needed to do this year, hitting the ball on the ground less so more of his extremely hard contact is leaving the yard — he’s at 16 homers, already four more than his total from last year, a 32-homer pace for a 162 game season. He’s always had the hit tool and a good eye, even with some swing and miss, and is so strong it seemed inevitable he’d get to plus game power before too long. He’s worked hard to keep his body in infield shape, but the Mets have had him play a little bit of left field to give him more paths to the majors and, I presume, prepare him in case they end up with a plus defender at third somewhere else. Elijah Green, OF, Washington Nationals Previous ranking: 2022 No. 5 draft pick Green was the fifth pick in the 2022 draft, and the IMG Academy standout was probably the highest-upside guy in the class, just lacking some of the probability of the hitters who went ahead of him. Green is 6-3, 225 pounds, yet is a 70 runner and can flash that kind of power. He moves well enough that he might stick in center field and has the plus arm for right. He has shown more propensity to swing and miss, including on stuff in the zone, than his peers in this draft, which is why he went fifth and not first. Sometimes players of this type turn into Jordan Walker, and sometimes they turn into Jo Adell, but I’m in favor of rolling the dice on this kind of athleticism and upside when you can. Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins Previous ranking: 2022 No 8 draft pick The Twins ended up with the top college player in the draft class this year when Lee, who was in the mix at No. 1 for much of the spring, ended up at the eighth pick. He’s an extremely advanced hitter who struck out under 10 percent of the time this spring, walking far more often than he whiffed, while making a lot of hard contact for Cal Poly. He tied for fifth in Division I in doubles with 25, one off the lead, while also hitting 15 homers, which I think is a good indicator of the sort of hitter he’ll be in pro ball. He’s got great hands and instincts but doesn’t have the speed or agility to stay at shortstop, most likely moving to third where he might be a plus defender. We often say this or that college player should move quickly to the majors, but Brooks Lee is the ne plus ultra of those players. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays Previous ranking: Unranked Tiedemann has been up to 100 mph this year and sits in the mid to upper 90s with an above-average to plus changeup and above-average slider. He starts on the extreme first base side of the rubber and finishes a bit on that side too, so left-handers get a horrendous look at the ball. And he’s dominated batters on both sides. He’s supposedly headed for Double-A New Hampshire, where his below-average command will be better tested, but hasn’t pitched anywhere since July 8. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles Previous ranking: 2022 No. 1 draft pick The son of longtime big leaguer Matt Holliday, Jackson was the first pick in this year’s draft, a true shortstop very likely to stay there with a chance to hit for average and power. In the offseason he improved his conditioning and reworked his swing, getting stronger and wowing scouts during a spring break trip from Stillwater to Arizona in March. He hasn’t done it against better quality pitching yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rake whenever he makes his pro debut. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox Previous ranking: Unranked Montgomery was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2021, out of an Indiana high school, and the 20-year-old has shown plus defense at short and an advanced approach at the plate. After a mid-June promotion, he’s hitting .298/.423/.464 at High A, with more walks than strikeouts. He was supposed to be more power than hit, but he controls the barrel well enough that I think he’s going to continue to hit for average and get on base, with maybe 15-20 homer power – which makes him an above-average regular, at least. James Wood, OF, San Diego Padres Previous ranking: Unranked Wood worked on everything this past offseason, losing 20-25 pounds and cutting down on his swing so that his natural athleticism can come to the forefront more – and it has, as he’s hit .319/.443/.568 in 48 games in Low A as a 19-year-old, with nine homers and 15 steals. He’s huge, 6-foot-7 and still listed at 240 pounds, running plus with 80 raw power, and so far the swing and miss tendency he showed in high school last spring hasn’t shown up in pro ball. He does still have huge risk, as the history of hitters his height is very poor, but his plate discipline and huge power/speed upside make him the Padres’ latest breakout prospect. Jack Leiter, RHP, Texas Rangers Previous ranking: No. 26 I don’t think this is really the debut the Rangers wanted, as Leiter, the second pick in 2021, went right to Double A for his pro debut this year. He’s struggled with command and, surprisingly, even control, walking one of every eight batters he’s faced. Leiter’s still up to 95-96 mph with big riding life and can show a plus curveball, but he’s been wildly inefficient and has been hit harder than he should with this stuff. He hasn’t gotten 15 outs in a start since June 7, and has made it through six innings once all season. The sum of the parts here shouldn’t lead to a 6-plus ERA in Double A. He’s also just 22 and in his first pro season, so there is time to right the ship. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies Previous ranking: Unranked The Phillies’ first-round pick from 2021, Painter just overwhelmed Low-A hitters this year, striking out 46 percent of them and not treating the rest of them much better. He has been almost as dominant in High A since a mid-June promotion. He is huge, listed at 6-foot-7, 215 pounds, and already probably heavier than that (in a good way), working 95-98 mph with a plus curveball. The main challenge for him will be staying healthy, and perhaps refining his changeup. He offers front-of-the-rotation upside with the attendant risk of any 19-year-old who throws a billion miles an hour. Kevin Parada, C, New York Mets Previous ranking: 2022 No. 11 draft pick Parada was, in my opinion, the best overall player in Division I this spring, a catcher who hit .361/.453/.709 while playing for Georgia Tech and facing ACC pitching. But he ended up sliding all the way to the Mets at the 11th pick. He’s a bat-first guy, with an excellent eye and a history of hard contact, while his defense behind the plate is fringy at best, from his receiving to his throwing. I don’t think his glove will matter if he hits like he’s capable of hitting. He’s not going to have to move to another position and he should hit for average with solid OBPs and 20-plus homers. Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians Previous ranking: Unranked The Guardians’ fifth-round pick from 2021, has added at least 7 mph to his fastball in the last 12 months, now hitting 99 mph regularly without any loss of the command or control that made him a prospect in college despite just fringy velocity. He’s walked under 5 percent of batters this year, even with a recent promotion to Double A, and is showing a plus changeup. I think the Guardians should keep drafting California college pitchers with good command and last names that start with B. Yosver Zulueta, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays Previous ranking: Unranked Zulueta threw all of one pitch in the Futures Game, so yay for that, but he’s emerged from nearly three lost years as a four-pitch starter who mostly needs to build up his workload. Zulueta defected after the 2018-19 offseason, ended up having Tommy John surgery and suffered a season-ending knee injury in his first outing back in 2021. His outings this year have been short, but he’s been up to 100 mph with improvement to both his slider and curveball, while he needs to throw his changeup more consistently for strikes. If he can handle the workload, he’s a mid-rotation guy at least, while he could also help the big club as a reliever right now. Shea Langeliers (David Durochik / Diamond Images via Getty Images) Shea Langeliers, C, Oakland A’s Previous ranking: No. 80 Langeliers is a power-over-hit guy who can really catch and throw, enough that he could probably play regularly for Oakland right now if it ends up trading Sean Murphy at some point — and he’s quite similar to Murphy in skills and expected production. The best of the players coming back from Atlanta in the Matt Olson trade, Langeliers should be a 20-homer catcher who walks enough to make up for modest batting averages and adds value across the board with his defense. Curtis Mead, 3B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays Previous ranking: No. 94 Mead messed around with his swing in May, but he struggled so he went back to his previous mechanics and resumed hitting like he had in 2021, with a lot of contact and doubles power. He’s not great at third base, so the Rays have moved him around the infield, playing him at second and a little at first, but the bat is the carrying tool, and he should hit for high averages with low strikeout rates and 15-20 homers a year. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals Previous ranking: No. 36 Liberatore has a plus curveball and an above-average to plus changeup, but in his first major-league call-up he struggled because hitters hit his fastball, which has velocity but not movement or high spin, hard enough that he didn’t get to those secondary pitches enough. Some of this was command, as he was middle-middle too often and missed up more than he missed down, but he may also need to change his approach to deemphasize the fastball or tweak the pitch to reach his full potential. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Minnesota Twins Previous ranking: Unranked Rodriguez signed with the Twins for $2.7 million in 2019, had an unremarkable pro debut in the Florida Complex Leave last year, but was having a huge breakout this spring in Low A when he tore the meniscus in his right knee in early June, ending his season. He hit .272/.493/.552 in 47 games — that OBP is not a typo, he reached base in nearly half his plate appearances — as a 19-year-old, playing mostly centerfield, although his most likely future home is right. He has huge raw power already that should get him to 30-plus homers in the majors. He should be good to go for spring training. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers Previous ranking: No. 32 Jung must wonder if he was born under a black cloud, as he was drafted in 2019, played just 78 games last year around injuries, then tore a labrum in his shoulder in spring training this year and underwent surgery. He is just now playing rehab games in the Arizona Rookie League, and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play defense this year or just return as a DH. He can really hit — and with power — reaching Triple A last year and swatting 19 homers between two levels, with a .436 OBP at the higher stop. He would be in the majors right now if he hadn’t gotten hurt, and maybe he’ll at least get some at bats in Arlington before the year is out. The bigger question is whether he’ll remain at third or move to first, where he’d still be a regular but have a slightly lower ceiling. Gordon Graceffo, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals Previous ranking: Unranked The Cardinals’ fifth-round pick last year out of Villanova, Graceffo was a command guy in college with a good changeup, but he’s exploded this year, hitting 99 mph, pitching in the mid to upper 90s, with a plus changeup and two breaking balls that are at least average. He’s been hit a little harder in Double A, a lot of which is about fastball location, but he’s already got a mid-rotation floor and the potential to exceed that by a lot. (By the way, last year’s fifth round included Graceffo and Bibee on this list, plus Griff McGarry of the Phillies and the toolsy Mason Auer of the Rays, an incredible early showing for such a late round.) Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers Previous ranking: No. 88 Frelick is a no-doubt centerfielder who puts the bat on the ball a ton and has continued to make enough hard contact to profile as more than just a regular there. He might never be more than a fringy power guy, but he doesn’t have to be with his defense, speed and OBP skills. I’m a big fan of Tyler Black, the Brewers’ second pick last year, as well, but he doesn’t have Frelick’s defensive value and may end up playing multiple positions. Owen White, RHP, Texas Rangers Previous ranking: Just missed White was the Rangers’ second-round pick in 2018, but never threw a pitch in pro ball before having Tommy John surgery, then the pandemic pushed back his pro debut to 2021, and then he broke his hand. I don’t know who the Rangers angered, but their prospects have had more injuries, routine and bizarre, than any other system I can remember. Anyway, White blew up (the good kind) in the Arizona Fall League last year and has carried it over to 2022, throwing a ton of strikes with a four-pitch mix, sitting 93-96 mph with two above-average secondaries in his slider and change. He’s already in Double A and continuing to dominate across he board, shutting down lefties even more than righties. Jace Jung, 2B, Detroit Tigers Previous ranking: 2022 No. 12 draft pick Jung was the 12th pick in this year’s draft, following in his brother’s (Josh Jung) footsteps as a first-rounder after a successful career of mashing baseballs for Texas Tech. Jace does it with a very weird setup, but gets the bat head to the ball on time, and his track record gives me more confidence in his future ability to hit than Josh’s (even though Josh has better mechanics and more raw power). Josh is not a great defender on the dirt, but should at least go out there for a year or two before we see if he has to go to an outfield corner. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t hit, wherever he plays. Vaughn Grissom, SS, Atlanta Previous ranking: Unranked Atlanta’s 11th-round pick in 2019 — the year the organization went hog-wild after the 10th round and signed a bunch of promising high school players to above-slot bonuses in the $200,000 to $600,000 range — Grissom hit .312/.404/.487 in High A this year before a July promotion to Double A, where he’s continued to rake. He’s a plus runner and a great hitter for contact, but may not have a ton of pop and probably moves off shortstop. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but has established himself as a likely regular who could be a borderline star. (He’s unrelated to Marquis, by the way.) Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs Previous ranking: Unranked Alcantara was the highest-ceiling prospect the Cubs got back in all of their trades last summer. The now 19-year-old outfielder has as projectable a body as you will ever see and surprising bat control for a still gangly 6-6 kid. Alcantara is hitting .265/.353/.462 in Low A, playing half his games in the notorious pitchers’ park of Myrtle Beach, with a team-leading 12 homers and 16 doubles — tying for the team lead in that category. He’s played mostly center since Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, but Alcantara is going to put on at least another 20 pounds and I think he ends up in right. He has similar OBP/power upside to Emmanuel Rodriguez, although Alcantara’s power is still on the come. Honorable mentions (listed in alphabetical order) Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies Edwin Arroyo, SS, Cincinnati Reds Michael Busch, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners Zack Gelof, 3B, Oakland A’s Brady House, SS, Washington Nationals Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers Alex Ramirez, OF, New York Mets Bryan Ramos, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Let's us have this right now. All we can do is look at our nice prospect list for the next couple of years.
Pham to the Bo Sox Yeah I get it I just wish they would have gotten someone closer to Big league level. Seems like the Reds are stacked at single A
That’s been the problem with all their trades sacrificing big league ready for potential. Go big, it’s their only chance. Having fringe players doesn’t do nothing if not supplemented by signings.
Yeah we're not ready to compete next year and maybe not even the year after. I'd rather they trade for who they view are the best players then the best AA or AAA players. If these guys continue to hit they'll move up the system quickly. All we have in the majors in India and Stephenson (when healthy) so plenty of open positions for young guys to win in 2024/25. Also have Votto and Moose coming off the books after 2023 so maybe Bob will actually spend some money lol no he won't
I guess I was more worried about being too stacked at one level and not having the talent evenly spread out. I guess the nice thing with having a log jam of shortstops in the A and AA level is a SS can play about any position. Wonder if Berrea will get moved to the OF soon as well?
Being too stacked at any level works itself out and is a Dodgers Yankee problem. Not the Reds. Get the best you can.
In my non-empirical, not really paying attention observations, it seems like they’ve been playing a lot better lately.
We wouldn't get a bag of balls for Senzel with his injury history. He's controllable for 3 more years, might as well keep him and see if he ever lives up to his hype.
This is probably the most excited I’ve been about the Reds since the Dusty years, at least they’re trying to rebuild this thing.