Thursday Night College Football Betting Discussion

I like the Minnesota line with Dasher out for MTSU.

I'm going to be researching the UAB line since RAS liked it ~12

 

What happened today? RAS?

 

Bako I capped last night Thursdays games and I have both games you have as well as two other but waiting for a couple things on that.

Then I saw RAS on Northern Illinois/Iowa State Over and it made me scratch my head.

But I agree with you on both unders. Those are my only plays as of this day. Like I said waiting for a couple things to come through before I make 2 more plays

 

I need to look into it more, but I like the Under on the UAB/FAU game for a few reasons. UAB replaces their QB who was the whole offense and the guy replacing him is definitely not on his level. FAU is also replacing a good amount on offense, so it seems that both teams will most likely struggle to score points. Anybody else have any insight to this game?

 

I'd be nervous to give advice on something like this, but with MTSU missing their starting QB I think you could tease Minnesota to around 18.5 right? Tough not to like that.

 

When I looked at it I got exactly what you were thinking. But both these teams defenses were TERRIBLE last year. Both giving up 30+. That scared me enough to stay away

BTW someone is jumping on that USC/USM under. Down to 45.5

 

I'm nervous just saying it because I don't want some freak Forcier-like effort for the backup QB to fuck you haha

BOL with however you put it together.

 

Looking at it now, 50 is a pretty low number for teams that are notorious for shitty defenses.

Here was a write up I saw that had piqued my interest (yes it is a few weeks old)

I think this is likely a game that is flying under everybody's radar both ATS and O/U. Here's why I like the UNDER here: UAB lost their best offensive producer for the last 3 to 4 years in former QB, Joe Webb. Webb did everything for this offense. While he is being replaced by a talented athlete in David Isabelle, the word is that Isabelle may not be the sharpest tool in the shed. We can expect this offense to struggle while Isabelle has his growing pains. FAU has a problem with personnel -- they bring back only 2 starters from last year's team and only 8 lettermen!! Defensively though, they bring back 9 starters and 21 lettermen. Again, we have the disastrous mixture of a new QB working with a totally new offensive line. This one looks to soar UNDER the 54 mark.

 

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Southern Mississippi/South Carolina Under 45 (2 unit)
Southern Mississippi Team Total Under 16 -115 (1 unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes -28 (1 unit)
Northern Illinois/Iowa State Under 51.5 (2 unit)
Southern California Trojans -21 (1 unit)
Florida Atlantic Team Total Under 18.5 -115 (1 unit)

 

Here is an analysis from Dr. Bob about the game.
UAB lost the only thing that was good about their team last season, quarterback Joe Webb, who was among the national leaders in passing efficiency while also running for over 1500 yards at 7.7 yards per run (not including sacks). Thanks to Webb, the Blazers averaged an impressive 6.9 yards per play last season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but that still wasn't good enough to offset a horrendous defense that allowed 6.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. UAB's defense is likely to improve with 8 returning starters (although they had 7 returning last year and were much, much worse than the previous season), but the Blazers' offense is not going to be as good. New quarterback David Isabelle actually may be just as good running the ball as Webb was, as he was second on the team in rushing at 288 yards at 9.0 yards per run as a backup. The problem is that Isabelle doesn't throw the ball very well and his numbers have been bad in UAB's scrimmages, which is particularly troubling given how bad the UAB defense is that he's practicing against.

Florida Atlantic also loses their best quarterback ever, as Rusty Smith departs after an injury plagued senior season. Smith was great before he was injured and likely new starter Jeff Van Camp got plenty of experience with 5 starts to end the season. Van Camp posted good numbers with 59% completions and 12 TD passes against just 2 interceptions, but his solid numbers (6.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average QB) are considerably worse than Smith's numbers. Van Camp will probably be a better quarterback this season but his numbers are likely to decline with the loss of 5 of the top 6 pass catchers and an offensive line with no experience (all 5 starters depart). Florida Atlantic was actually 0.4 yppl better than average on a national scale last season but I rate that unit at 0.5 yppl worse than average heading into this season (which is pretty good for a Sun Belt team). The Owls should move the ball at a slightly better than average clip in this game against what figures to be an improved, but still bad UAB defense. The Florida Atlantic defense was even worse than UAB's defense last season, as the Owls had the worst defense in the nation based on my ratings. That unit is much more experienced this season (9 returning starters compared to 3 last year), and teams that were among the worst in the nation the previous season tend to improve greatly. However, the Owls will still be bad defensively and UAB should move the ball at will on the ground in this game, which will keep Isabelle from having to throw it too much. Even with that being the case my ratings still only favor UAB by 10 points. The line opened at 13 points and has gone up, so the line value sides with Florida Atlantic. However, Owls' coach Howard Schnellenberger doesn't put too much emphasis on non-conference games, which he uses to get his team ready for the Sun Belt Conference portion of the schedule by playing lots of players and trying not to get his good players hurt. As a result, the Owls are 0-14-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference road games, including a 29-56 loss as a 6 1/2 point dog at UAB last season. I'll pass.

 

At first glance I was in love with Pitt. But then looking more and more into it, it got me very sketchy. Yes Utah doesn't have nearly anyone coming back. But I really see this going any way and think there are better games out there.

 

Adding

Northern Illinois Huskies +4.5 (2 unit)

 

I think it's the NIU/ISU under right?

 

Hmmm not sure then. Plenty of people seem to be jumping on that moved under.

OSU/Marshall seems split
Utah/Pitt obviously split
Not sure what to do with SCe/SoMiss
People split on how much home field helps Hawaii tonight.

 

If I had to go with 1 play, it would be with Northern Illinois. Before I looked at injuries I like the Under alot. Then with Injuries/Suspensions NIU looks real good.

They are supposed to have the best defense. ISU returns 8 starters including their QB but Star OL (my buddy) Scott Haughton has been kicked off the team.

Northern Illinois returns 6 on offense including their QB. They averaged 29 ppg last year against a defense that returns 5 players but Starting SS is out for Iowa State.

I like this to be a 24-21 victory for Northern Illinois

 

What was the line for the Wake Forest game? They are going to destroy

 

I finally have been able to look at the Added games. Adding a couple more.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes -40 (1 unit)
Nevada Wolfpack -28 (2 unit)
Eastern Washington/Nevada Over 66.5 (1 unit)