So which of the 70 toss up districts (538 has 110 seats as likely-s, leans, or toss-ups, or 46 seats as only lean or toss-up) are you worried about? Let's dissect this. Cook Political report almost universally is trending blue.
Government spends millions to guard Confederate cemeteries By JIM SALTER7 minutes ago 1 of 6 In this photo made Wednesday, Sept. 19, 2018, a security guard walks the grounds at North Alton Confederate Cemetery in Alton, Ill. The federal government has hired private security firms to guard several Confederate memorials across the U.S in the aftermath of clashes between white nationalists and counter-protesters last year. Information obtained by The Associated Press shows that nearly $3 million has been spent on contracted security since last summer and another $1.6 million is budgeted for similar protection in fiscal 2019. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson) Spoiler ALTON, Ill. (AP) — After last year’s deadly clash between white nationalists and counter-protesters in Charlottesville, Virginia, the federal government quietly spent millions of dollars to hire private security guards to stand watch over at least eight Confederate cemeteries, documents from the Department of Veterans Affairs show. The security effort, which runs around the clock at all but one of those VA-operated cemeteries, was aimed at preventing the kind of damage that befell Confederate memorials across the U.S. in the aftermath of the Charlottesville violence. None of the guarded cemeteries has been vandalized since the security was put in place. Records obtained by The Associated Press through the Freedom of Information Act show that the VA has spent nearly $3 million on the cemetery security since August 2017. Another $1.6 million is budgeted for fiscal 2019 to pay for security at all Confederate monuments, which could include other sites. The agency has not determined when the security will cease. Private security was needed “to ensure the safety of staff, property and visitors paying respect to those interred,” Jessica Schiefer, spokeswoman for the VA’s National Cemetery Administration, said in a statement. The agency “has a responsibility to protect the federal property it administers and will continue to monitor and assess the need for enhanced security going forward.” Most of the protected cemeteries are in the North, in places far removed from the Confederacy. Vast numbers of the buried soldiers were prisoners of war who were held nearby. Many succumbed to smallpox and other diseases. The cemetery monuments are typically simple and solemn, serving more to acknowledge the deceased than to celebrate the slaveholding nation they defended. Government watchdog groups and some members of Congress question if the spending is still necessary. Steve Ellis, executive vice president of the non-partisan Taxpayers for Common Sense, said the cost of security represents the sort of “spending inertia” too common in government. “Unfortunately what happens with the government is once you start spending money on something, you generally continue to spend money on it,” Ellis said. Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush of Chicago, whose district includes one of the protected cemeteries, said in a statement that while he supports the VA’s decision to prevent vandalism, officials “must remain vigilant in evaluating” government spending. Monuments to the Confederacy have become especially polarizing since nine black parishioners were gunned down by an avowed white supremacist at a church in Charleston, South Carolina, in 2015. The confrontation in Charlottesville on Aug. 11, 2017, reopened the wound. In the weeks that followed, vandals damaged Confederate sites across the country, and cemeteries were not spared. A bronze statue of a rebel soldier was toppled and decapitated on Aug. 22, 2017, at Camp Chase Confederate Cemetery in Columbus, Ohio. Two days later, the VA contracted with the Westmoreland Protection Agency, based in Sunrise, Florida, to provide unarmed security guards at Camp Chase and two other cemeteries — North Alton Confederate Cemetery in Alton, Illinois, and Woodlawn National Cemetery in Elmira, New York. The 30-day contract cost $91,357, according to the documents. About a week later, someone threw paint on a 117-year-old Confederate memorial at Springfield National Cemetery in Missouri, hours before President Donald Trump was scheduled to speak in Springfield. On Sept. 6, 2017, the VA amended the monthly contract to add Springfield and four additional national Confederate cemeteries: Point Lookout Confederate Cemetery in Scotland, Maryland; Finn’s Point National Cemetery in Pennsville Township, New Jersey; Confederate Stockade Cemetery in Sandusky, Ohio; and Confederate Mound at Oak Woods Cemetery in Chicago. Schiefer did not directly answer questions about why the eight cemeteries were chosen but said the National Cemetery Administration “routinely monitors the need for additional protection and security at all of its sites.” Decisions, she said, are based on factors such as historical significance, replacement and repair value, and previous vandalism or threats of vandalism at particular sites. The monthly contract for all eight was renewed in September 2017. All told, the VA spent about $462,500 on security through Oct. 23, 2017, when it agreed to an annual contract with Westmoreland at a cost of just under $2.3 million. Westmoreland hired The Whitestone Group, based in Columbus, Ohio, as a subcontractor. The funding came from the VA’s budget and did not require an emergency appropriation, Schiefer said. Contract specifications call for round-the-clock security at seven of the cemeteries, and during daytime hours only at the Chicago cemetery. Spot checks by the AP found guards at the cemeteries in Columbus and Alton, but no one during the day at the Chicago cemetery. Schiefer said the VA does not discuss security procedures. At the Alton cemetery, a lone guard watched over the grounds from his truck. The guard, who works for the Whitestone Group, declined an interview request and would not give his name. The cemetery, near St. Louis, consists mostly of grass and a few stately trees over rolling hills. Its main feature is a 58-foot-tall granite obelisk with plaques naming the 1,354 Confederate dead buried there, including many who died of smallpox while prisoners of war. Jeff LaRe, executive vice president of The Whitestone Group, said an uptick in vandalism of Confederate monuments this past summer was evidence that cemetery security remains necessary. Protesters in August toppled a century-old statue at the University of North Carolina, and vandals put paint on statues in Salisbury, North Carolina, and Richmond, Virginia. Darrell Maples, a Missouri-based commander for the Sons of Confederate Veterans, agreed. “I don’t think it’s going to go away anytime soon,” Maples said. Whether because of the added security or other reasons, no vandalism has occurred at any of the cemeteries since the August 2017 incident in Springfield, the VA said. Protesters gathered at Confederate Mound in Chicago in April, at the same time the Sons of Confederate Veterans rallied there. But amid a heavy police presence, nothing was damaged. Schiefer said that twice in September 2017, suspicious vehicles were spotted near the statue at the Elmira cemetery but drove away when the guard approached. Curtis Kalin, spokesman for the government watchdog group Citizens Against Government Waste, said the additional security was understandable after the rash of vandalism in 2017. “However, when the threats and vandalism have all but ceased, it might be time to rethink” the spending, Kalin said in a statement. ___ Associated Press photographer/videographer Jeff Roberson in Alton, Illinois; writer Andrew Welsh-Huggins in Columbus, Ohio; video journalist Teresa Crawford in Chicago; researcher Jennifer Farrar in New York; and former Jefferson City, Missouri, writer Blake Nelson contributed to this report.
You seem very confident. Even though the Dems have close to 80% odds of taking the house (well according to you and nate silver) ill still bet you 1:1 that the republicans hold the house after midterms. Loser donates $100 to TMB. Deal?
His gut. He should actually take the same bet with 10 of us to up the stakes a little bit. Chump change for such a rich, smart guy like he says he is.
I worked at a commodities trading firm for about a year. He reminds me of the traders to a T. They almost all thought that because they were good at reading the tea leaves in a narrow slice of the market, they were smart as fuck in everything else.
Democrats really overplayed their hand in the Kavanaugh hearing. It will backfire at the polls in midterms. I don't trust the polling at all, not even from king of bias Nate silver. Trump has a way of getting his base fired up. So while traditionally the the lead party would lose seats during a mid-term, I think the Kavanaugh hearing and the master of media will make his base rabid to go vote.
It's not juat that the president almost always loses seats at the midterms. If you're counting on the Kavanaugh stuff to help, I have some bad news: voters rarely, if ever, show up to say "thank you" for past accomplishments
On the real odds ill bet as much as you want. Ill bet 3 people a $100 donation to TMB if you want in.
And it's not just "traditionally" the president loses seats at the midterm, I think it's happened twice since WWII. One of which being after 9/11 when Bush and co. were preparing for war and scaring the hell out of everyone
That's because while it's true that white men have historically held and enforced power in this country, it's also true that white women benefit from keeping the status quo due to them often being linked to or protected by white men. A lot of white women are fine with not being #1 as long as they're guaranteed to not slip below #2.
Serious question. When are you guys going to figure out that Trump bucks the norm in everything? What voters have done in the past is irrelevant. No one has campaigned like Trump. No one has delivered to their base like Trump. If i had a $1 for ever time you guys told me Trump could never do something only to have him do it, I would be able to pay off all the losses if i lose this bet.
I'm happy that you are confident. I'm not in a financial position to do the bet with you, I'm sorry. Someone else can take his offer to be the third.
Small consolation that at least the first bitch has been fired. It would be great if she can be evicted (if she rents).
You asked. You don't have to agree, but a large part of America is warming to Trump. He is getting results. Its showing in the polls. He has a way of firing up his base like no other. He truly is a media manipulator and master marketer. Before the election democrats would talk about their grass roots campaign etc, but Trump comes along and has these massive rallies that people actually enjoy going to. They are covered by FOX, CNN et all and its like free advertising. Its not your boring political speech read off a teleprompter like so many previous presidents. His style is certainly not normal and i dont think its fair to extrapolate "normal" ways of measuring polls etc and apply them to him. Is he crass sometimes yes. He is just a loud mouthed New Yorker. But the other types of politicians weren't getting it done, so we ended up with him. The show is entertaining and the results are good, who wouldn't want to continue watching? I think Repubs defy the odds and hold the house.
Des Moines Registers cock blocks every GOP candidate The Register's endorsements for Congress: GOP has failed to govern; give Democrats a chance The Register's editorial Published 6:00 p.m. CT Oct. 13, 2018 Spoiler TWEETLINKEDINCOMMENTEMAILMORE When Republicans achieved the trifecta in 2016, winning the presidency as well as holding the House and Senate, it seemed the country was poised to move beyond the GOP-engineered partisan gridlock that had characterized much of the previous six years. Americans had reason to expect action from Congress, for better or worse, on a variety of issues ranging from health care and immigration to reducing government overspending. Not so much, as it turned out. The Republican majority in Congress tried and failed to dismantle the Affordable Care Act without offering a plan of their own that a majority of their own members — let alone a majority of the American people — could support. Instead, they have allowed the system to become increasingly unstable, leading to a lack of competition and rising premiums. Republicans in Congress have not only failed at comprehensive immigration reform, but their action allowed protection to expire on young, undocumented Americans brought here as children. They haven’t even fully funded President Trump’s border wall. They stood by as the administration tried to bar Muslims from certain countries from entering the United States. They looked the other way as the administration shocked and dismayed the nation by separating young children from their parents at the border, holding them in detention and losing track of some of the kids. Republicans promised fiscal responsibility, yet they have punted on putting the nation back on sound financial footing. Their one major legislative success, the 2017 tax cut, is projected to add $1.9 trillion to the debt. This, after Republicans howled endlessly about the comparatively meager deficits created during the Obama administration. The Congressional Budget Office said in August that these tax cuts and spending increases would become “unsustainable” if extended. But the House GOP, including Iowa’s three Republican representatives, voted last month for another $3.8 trillion in tax cuts. The Republican majority has twiddled its thumbs while President Trump started a trade war with China, imposing tariffs and provoking retaliation that is hurting Iowa farmers by threatening export markets. They have even allowed the Farm Bill to expire, leaving town without resolving differences. Some have argued that this election should be a referendum on President Trump. We disagree. This is about Congress, which has abdicated much of its constitutional duty and has failed to provide a check and balance to the executive branch. Not only has the party failed to act as a check on the president, key Republicans have been complicit in trying to obstruct and undermine the investigation of a foreign power’s interference in a U.S. election. And by their silence they have tacitly endorsed the president’s racism, misogyny, white nationalism, divisiveness and crudity. In becoming the party of Trump, the Republicans have forsaken traditional conservatism and given voters no rational alternative to the Democrats. The party needs to be voted out of power and spend a few years becoming again the party of Lincoln, not the party of Trump. The Register’s editorial board normally considers each congressional race individually before making endorsements. We interview the candidates, if possible, and review their backgrounds and public positions. We consider character and the candidate’s depth of understanding of issues. We have been known, at times, to endorse a candidate we disagree with on issues rather than one we doubt could follow through on promised change. We went through the same process this year, although no Republican incumbents chose to meet with us. Some of the challengers are more prepared than others. We were especially impressed by Republican Christopher Peters’ growth as a second-time challenger to Rep. Dave Loebsack in the 2nd District. But the stakes are too high this year to worry about whether some candidates have sufficiently detailed agendas or know enough about how some parts of the government work. Nothing short of a change in party leadership in Congress will move this country forward. That’s why we’re recommending that Iowa voters send home Reps. Rod Blum, David Young and Steve King and return Rep. Dave Loebsack to the House. 1st District: Finkenauer Democrat Abby Finkenauer, who is challenging Blum, is a 29-year-old state representative from Dubuque. She’s run a highly competitive race against Blum, the two-term incumbent, and has demonstrated a solid grasp of issues facing the district. If Finkenauer wins, she’ll be one of the youngest women ever elected to Congress. Buy Photo Abby Finkenauer, Democratic candidate in Iowa's 1st Congressional District, meets with the Des Moines Register editorial board Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018, in Des Moines. (Photo: Rodney White/The Register) She noted during her interview with us that she is still trying to pay off about $20,000 in college loans. She’s incredulous that Congress has not made it possible for people like her to at least refinance their student debt. “When I think about why maybe it hasn’t gotten done, it could be because there’s not a lot of people, again, sitting around the table making these decisions that are paying off student loans, who have any idea what that’s like. … I think it’s important that we have that viewpoint in D.C.” So do we. It’s just one of the reasons we endorse Finkenauer. Blum has joined in some successes for the 1st District, including bipartisan work to secure federal money for a much-needed flood wall in Cedar Rapids. But he also joined the House Freedom Caucus, which has been responsible for walling up action on many issues. Iowa doesn’t need more obstruction in Congress. 2nd District: Loebsack Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack is seeking a seventh term in Congress. He sits on the Energy and Commerce Committee in the House, where he’s been working to expand access to rural broadband as a vital component to economic development. Loebsack retains Iowa's 2nd District seat in U.S. House Loebsack, who grew up poor in Sioux City and owes some of his success to federal assistance and Social Security survivor benefits to his family at the time, has been a consistent voice for low- and middle-income Iowans. He has also worked hard to help people in Cedar Rapids, which is no longer in his district, recover from the 2008 floods. He deserves re-election. His Republican opponent, Peters, is an engaging candidate. The Coralville surgeon offers market-driven solutions for health care, some of which would be worth considering to help reduce health-care costs, even though we disagree with his position that the Affordable Care Act should be replaced. In another year, against a different opponent, he might get our support. But not this time. 3rd District: Axne Of all of the Republican incumbents seeking re-election, we’ve been most disappointed in Young. The Register endorsed him in 2014 as a “center-right” Republican who had expressed pragmatism and a willingness to compromise to get things done. Instead, what he has compromised is his credibility with voters last year by supporting a repeal of the Affordable Care Act that included no plan for replacement, despite his stated interest in protecting patients with pre-existing conditions. A day after clinching the Democratic nomination for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, Cindy Axne said she is ready to challenge Republican David Young to a debate in each of the county's he represents. Michael Zamora/The Register His Democratic opponent, Cindy Axne, is running a competitive race against Young. We endorsed her in the Democratic primary based largely on her state government experience in strategic planning, operations improvement and performance oversight. While she often lacks details about how to implement her proposals, she offers a get-it-done pragmatism that we wish Young had displayed more often. We endorse her, hoping again for change. 4th District: Scholten This one’s a no-brainer for any Iowan who has cringed at eight-term incumbent King’s increasing obsession with being a cultural provocateur. In his almost 16 years in Congress, King has passed exactly one bill as primary sponsor, redesignating a post office. He won’t debate his opponent and rarely holds public town halls. Instead, he spends his time meeting with fascist leaders in Europe and retweeting neo-Nazis. Buy Photo J.D. Scholten, Democratic candidate for Iowa's 4th Congressional District, meets with the Des Moines Register on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018, in Des Moines. Scholten is running against Republican congressman Steve King and Libertarian challenger David Aldrich. (Photo: Kelsey Kremer/The Register) His Democratic challenger, J.D. Scholten, a 38-year-old former professional baseball player from Sioux City, is a breath of fresh air. He’s focused entirely on working for the 4th District, particularly rural communities that are struggling with the effects of low commodity prices, Trump’s trade war and workforce shortages as a result of the immigration crackdown. His party label doesn’t match that of many of his voters, but he can relate to people across the political spectrum. We particularly like Scholten’s willingness to vote for new leadership of his caucus in the interest of easing partisan gridlock. We endorse him not just as an antidote for King’s virulent xenophobia but as a promising new leader. Watch: Dave Loebsack meets with the Register editorial board Cindy Axne meets with the Register editorial board J.D. Scholten meets with the Register editorial board Abby Finkenauer meets with the Register editorial board This editorial is the opinion of the Des Moines Register’s editorial board: Carol Hunter, executive editor; Kathie Obradovich, opinion editor; Andie Dominick, editorial writer, and Richard Doak and Rox Laird, editorial board members.
I will always say the quote I heard after this bedshitting tv performance. Stephen Miller is “remarkably uncharismatic.” Truth.
This headline is misleading in that the resolution condemns the death penalty more broadly, and the we obviously still have it... That said outside of Japan, it puts us in some fucking terrible company.
Interested to see the spin Talking Head puts on this. The modern GOP is far more radical than the democrats.