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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Shock Linwood, Jun 22, 2016.
They are headed for a No Deal shitshow, right?
The leave party talked a big game about how great this was going to be and now it seems they would rather fuck themselves over completely than admit the entire thing was a mistake.
Very unlikely. Long extension coming. Wouldn't be surprised if its coupled with election.
You think the EU is going to give them a long extension? I thought the 2 week extension was surprising?
I think so. EU is much more prepared for a no-deal situation than the UK because they haven't been incompetent the whole way, but it would still be a terrible impact, particularly on Ireland. See Donald Tusk's comments earlier this week. Everyone but about 35-40 really hardcore Brexiteers really want to avoid no deal.
Long extension will be: (1) either used to get a softer form of compromise Brexit through the HoC -- the Norway+ option; (2) May gets extension, steps down/calls general election.
The E.U. absolutely doesn’t want a no deal Brexit, and they probably want to give the British people as many chances to vote these morons out as possible.
Though I don't see how she could put Meaningful Vote back up again, as there wouldn't be any changes to what was previously shot down a few weeks ago, and the speaker has said he won't allow that.
From what I understand, a further extension would mean that Britain would have to participate in EU voting and that would make for a long delay and the leave people are too angry to allow that.
Seems the best strategy for Britain would be Parliament first figuring out what exactly the fuck it is that they want.
Highly unlikely. Doubtful really.
Monday will be another round of votes. If an option(s) garners a majority, they can take that to the EU in asking for an extension. Likely going to be some version of a Soft Brexit (Brexit in name only really) + then a Public Referendum to affirm it. Really good outcome for us.
There's no easy way forward. It is very slightly possible that May could have gotten her deal across if she had gotten enough changes to the Irish Backstop to placate the DUP. But even then, just looking at this vote I don't know if she could swing 20 more votes from either Conservative or Labour. But EU isn't renegotiating the back stop, so it looks like her deal is done to me.
Long extension will leave a lot of the hardcores angry, and will boost support for some pretty nasty groups like UKIP, but I think it's inevitable. I think a general election is inevitable too, because if May pivots to a permanent customs union with EU, she'll split her party.
And even if one of the indicitave votes passes on Monday, those aren't binding on government. The executive negotiates, not the legislature. May has indicated that she'll probably just ignore them. Now, Parliament could then turn those votes into legislation, but that's a whole different process.
How likely is it that the hardcore leavers hijack the entire process by having enough votes to effectively block anything and force a hard exit?
Maybe the UK should, like, just stay.
Pretty unlikely. That's what they think they can do, but it in reality they've made it much more likely that Brexit is either (1) very very soft; or (2) that it doesn't happen at all.
The hardcore Brexiteers are really idiots. They'd rather be purists and get nothing they want than compromise and get some of what they want.
It's great that that is the obviously rational thing to do but they can't do that because of reasons.
Everything seems to be going well then...
Can’t they just admit a majority of the UK were idiots and fucked up and pretend this never happened?
True to an extent.
But at least there was a sliver of intellectual honesty about No Deal. Although most of them arrived at that position only after years of bullshit about how the UK could join the EEA like Norway and it would he great. During the campaign when it was clear this was horseshit they switched to the cake and eat it nonsense and No Deal as a back up.
If only we could pretend a minority of Americans were deplorable idiots and pretend this never happened
What is Norway's agreement w the EU?
Soft as possible
Part of single market through membership of the EEA, but it is not in a custom's union with EU.
Holy shit 3 votes
Extremely good thread
The UK bends the knee again. Extension requested until June 30 but the EU will demand a long one (which May knows, but she is too much of a coward to acknowledge in her letter).
The U.K. will be competing in the European elections. Could be transformative for U.K. politics. I thought 2016 couldn’t be beaten for political drama but here we are.
Some great responses to the liar Mogg acting like a child
Turkey is a better example of Parliament’s custom union deal than Norway, right?
Basically, as I understand it, this comes down to not enough Conservatives supporting May’s deal due to the Irish backstop and Labour pushing for either a 2nd referendum and/or throwing out article 50. SNP is in the latter group.
Plus, you’ve got the issue of no one liking Labour’s leader so May stays despite having no real pull with anyone.
Thrown in the mix is a bunch of MPs that think a 2nd vote is a disgrace to democracy.. instead they’ll ram through any deal because of what voters said they wanted in the most simplistic terms possible at the foundation of numerous lies 1,000 days ago..
Even if they finally agree on something then there’s no guarantee the EU is okay with it and they have to start over.
And the most likely solution at this point is the one that ends in a version of what they had before but with no say in how the EU is run whatsoever.
Remember when May ran that stupid snap election two years to get a bigger majority?! And instead of that she had to make a deal with the Northern Irish to form a government?
It always looked like the UK would end up paying a lot of money for single market access with no say and will have to take a lot of immigrants anyway.
They would take even more immigrants from the Rest of the World because their welfare system, like most western ones, will collapse without young labour to fill the hole.
Looks more and more like the U.K. will stay in on long extension after another.
Just spitballing here...
Would giving Northern Ireland back to the Republic help things?
Britain want well rid of it and have done since the 1960s really.
It would help this but would create a whole host of other problems.
It would help get a new government. Also probably help people die.
Tally ho and what not
Fuck needs to hurry up and explain this shit to the rest of us.
31 October is the new date after Theresa May went on her begging tour of Europe. Ireland and Germany backed a long extension till next March but Macron wanted June this year. Interesting snippet about humiliation...from Greece of all places.
First time Germany and France haven’t been on the same page for a looooong time but the UK’s humiliation continues to be the headline grabber.
The Conservative Party are going to destroy themselves.
There are no good options .
By the way, since we're on the subject, there are no lesser of two evils options either.
Pretend it never happened and get May out?