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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Corky Bucek, Oct 4, 2018.
They left out the awesome 2pt conversion
About to stop raining in BHM
Weather is too shitty. I’m watching from a bar.
Bham already resting players for the playoffs
It’s surprising that I’ve kept up with this league more than the last, and we had a team in the last league.
To be fair, Joe Moglia was the coach. It's easy to get bored
These boys would roll a bama/Auburn all star team. The iron are the top tier of football in the state of Alabama and it isn’t even close.
He was throwing to the other WR behind dude that tried to catch it and he was open.
Iron +17.5 vs the oakland raiders, who ya got?
Brutal INT right there
Where’s the game being played?
The rose bowl.
Legendary Nebraska coach ending another Alabama dynasty.
Two upsets today
Three this weekend.
Everyone in Birmingham was out of town this weekend
The weather was also terrible, and it was snowing in SLC. Regardless, TV numbers are what will really matter.
AAF WEEK 4 BETTING RECAP, TAKEAWAYS, AND A WEEK 5 LINES PREVIEW: UNDERS STILL MAKE MONEY
We have four weeks in the books in the inaugural season of the Alliance of American Football (AAF). There were a couple of upsets this past weekend, leaving Orlando as the only remaining undefeated team and the West Division as wide open as ever.
AAF WEEK 4 SCORES
San Diego Fleet 23 at Memphis Express 26
Memphis covers as a home underdog and the game goes Over.
Orlando Apollos 20 at Salt Lake Stallions 11
Orlando covers as a road favorite and the game goes Under.
San Antonio Commanders 12 at Birmingham Iron 11
San Antonio covers as a road underdog and the game goes Under.
Atlanta Legends 14 at Arizona Hotshots 11
Atlanta covers as a double-digit road underdog and the game goes Under.
WEEK 4 BETTING TAKEAWAYS
Unders are money
It was yet another profitable weekend for Under bettors as the total fell short of the number in three of the four games. The Under has now hit in 12-of-16 games. Weather certainly played a factor this past weekend as the Apollos-Stallions game was played in the snow and the Commanders-Iron had to deal with very wet conditions.
Home-team trend fading
Home teams dominated the league early on but that trend seems to be evening out. Home teams covered in just 1-of-4 games in Week 4 after going 2-2 ATS in Week 2 and Week 3. Home teams are now 10-6 straight up and 9-7 against the spread.
Nelson out indefinitely
San Diego lost starting quarterback Philip Nelson to a shoulder injury in the second quarter of its loss to Memphis and he will not be available in Week 5. Alex Ross replaced Nelson but was pretty awful, going 8-of-18 for 80 yards, a touchdown, an interception and two lost fumbles. Mike Bercovici, the Fleet’s Week 1 starter, is also an option to start next week.
This is unfortunate for San Diego and the league as a whole as the AAF simply cannot afford to lose quarterback talent. San Diego general manager Dave Boller said the team would have to add another QB and would be looking to see who's available...let the Johnny Manziel rumors begin.
It’s Murray time!
Atlanta’s Aaron Murray finally got his chance to play after starting QB Matt Simms cut his hand on the first possession on Sunday night and he was, predictably, a huge upgrade, going 20-of-33 for 254 yards while also rushing seven times for 54 yards and leading the Legends to their first win. Nothing has been announced yet but it would be shocking if Murray doesn’t get the start in Week 5.
Bad beat of the week
The bad beat of the week definitely goes to San Diego Fleet backers. San Diego jumped out to a 20-6 lead but then the offense was terrible under Nelson’s replacement Ross as he gave the ball away three times in 2.5 quarters. The Fleet managed just three points in the second half and wound up losing outright. My apologies if you had money on San Diego.
AAF WEEK 5 BETTING PREVIEW
The AAF lines for Week 5 likely won’t be released until about Wednesday, but I’ll take my weekly shot at predicting the Week 5 lines and totals.
Orlando at Birmingham (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Orlando -4.5, 39.5
Salt Lake at San Diego (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Salt Lake -2.5, O/U 38.5
Memphis at Atlanta (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Atlanta -1, O/U 39
San Antonio at Arizona (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)
Projected line: Arizona -9, O/U 40
Orlando Apollos 4-0
Birmingham Iron 3-1
Memphis Express 1-3
Atlanta Legends 1-3
Arizona Hotshots 2-2
San Diego Fleet 2-2
San Antonio Commanders 2-2
Salt Lake Stallions 1-3
Time to Forge On! Fuck you, Mix and Mr Bulldops and all other Apollos fans. Apollos came into the Gray Lady and they ain't leaving happy. Woo!
This offense is all kinds of shitty imo
I may have been needlessly rude before this game and for that I apologize. Let's all just have fun.
We benched Perez
what channel is this one on
We want Blake Sims
No we don’t.
_______ Price is our guy. That's evident.
that fucking illegal defense call
Da fuck Price, he was wide ass open
who is this price guy
Keith Price. He went to Washington.
that guy was so far out of my memory
wasn’t terrible in college
No posts on the ATL/Memphis game?
I want to put my redskins icon into the trash can and put up an Apollo’s icon. When will this possible? #takeaim
Don't know. We've asked several times but it seems to fall on deaf ears.
Hot Shots look terrible
We’ve reached the second half of the season in the Alliance of American Football (AAF). Are we finally going to see some offense in this league after the Over went 4-0 last week? Oddsmakers have adjusted the totals slightly with only one total for the week opening in the 30s. We dig into the Week 6 betting odds, trends, leans, and give a best bet.
WEEK 5 BETTING RECAP
Make it back-to-back best bet winners after the Salt Lake Stallions staged a late rally to cover the +6 spread. The bet wasn’t looking great as they trailed 24-11 with less than five minutes remaining but two quick touchdowns gave them a late lead, which they then squandered. They still covered, however, moving my best bets to 2-2.
My leans went 2-2 last week with Orlando covering the -3.5 points and the Memphis-Atlanta game going Over the 38.5-point total. My other two leans were Unders, which, of course, were losers after all four games went Over the total in Week 5. If you were following me on Twitter (@coversBD), I also gave out a winner with Atlanta -1.5, but that won’t count towards my overall record.
Season totals: Leans 7-9, Best Bets 2-2
AAF BETTING TRENDS
The Over went 4-0 last week and is now 8-12 on the season.
The road team went 3-1 against the spread for the second straight week.
Home teams are now 10-10 ATS on the season and 12-8 straight up.
Favorites went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS last week.
Favorites are now 15-5 straight up and 11-9 ATS on the season.
No double-digit favorite has covered the spread yet this season (three occurrences).
AAF WEEK 6 ODDS AND TOTALS
MEMPHIS EXPRESS (1-4) at SALT LAKE STALLIONS (1-4)
Opening line: Salt Lake -8, O/U 40
TV: 4 p.m. ET, B/R Live
Memphis: 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U. On the road, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U.
Salt Lake: 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U. At home, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
The one notable trend is that both of Salt Lake’s home games have gone Under the total, but bad weather has played a factor in those games. The forecast for Saturday is sunny with a temperature in the 40s, so the weather shouldn’t affect this one.
Zach Mettenberger has made Memphis’ offense respectable as it is averaging 23 points in his two starts after averaging 11.7 in its first three games. The defense has been consistently mediocre, allowing between 20-26 points (average of 22.6) in each of its five games.
Salt Lake’s only win came at home in Week 3 over what we thought to be a very good Arizona team. The Hotshots, however, haven’t won since and have gone from looking like one of the AAF’s best teams to one of its worst.
Lean: Memphis +8. I had projected this line to be closer to a field goal so I'm happily taking the extra points with the Express. Every game that Memphis has played from Week 2 on has been decided by four points or less. Also, how is a 1-4 team with -22 net points laying eight against anyone?
ARIZONA HOTSHOTS (2-3) at ORLANDO APOLLOS (5-0)
Opening line: Orlando -9, O/U 43.5
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Arizona: 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U. On the road, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U.
Orlando: 4-1 ATS and 2-3 O/U. At home, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
At this point, Orlando looks completely unstoppable. The Apollos have scored the most points in the league (149) and have allowed the second fewest (77) for a whopping +72 margin in net points. They’re coming off a game where they scored 31 against the league’s best defense, with QB Garrett Gilbert throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns and running back De’Veon Smith running for 119 yards on just 14 carries.
Arizona is a complete mess of late after starting the season 2-0 having lost three straight, two of which were at home. The Hotshots did show a little bit of life in the second half last week, outscoring San Antonio 25-3 but that was after they had fallen behind 26-0 in the first half.
Lean: Under 43.5. I went back and forth between Orlando -9 and the Under but ultimately settled on the Under for two reasons. First, the Under trends for Arizona road games and Orlando home games. Second, the fact that the Apollos still live in Jacksonville and practice in Georgia — this has to take a toll on them eventually.
SAN ANTONIO COMMANDERS (3-2) at ATLANTA LEGENDS (2-3)
Opening line: Atlanta -1.5, O/U 40.5
TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
San Antonio: 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U. On the road, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U.
Atlanta: 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U. At home, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U.
San Antonio looked amazing in the first half last week, shutting out Arizona 26-0, but then almost blew it as it was outscored 25-3 in the second. The Commanders now play their fourth game in a row on the road.
Aaron Murray has saved the Legends from being the laughingstock of the AAF as he is 2-0 straight up and ATS as the No. 1 quarterback. It’s also important to note that Atlanta is playing much better on offense under offensive coordinator Ken Zampese — he’s the team’s third OC of the young season after Michael Vick quit in the preseason and Rich Bartel left the team just prior to Week 3.
Lean: Over 40.5. Atlanta's offense continues to improve each week while the Commanders have given up 25 or more in three of their last four games.
BIRMINGHAM IRON (3-2) AT SAN DIEGO FLEET (3-2)
Opening line: San Diego -6, O/U 36
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Birmingham: 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U. On the road, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U.
San Diego: 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U. At home, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U.
Birmingham became the latest AAF team to make a change at quarterback as it yanked starter Luis Perez in favor of Keith Price late in the first quarter of last week’s loss to Orlando. Price went 18 of 29 for 234 yards and threw the team’s first passing touchdown of the season. The Week 6 starter hasn’t been announced yet but expect Price to get the call. Another key note here is that this is only Birmingham’s second road game — its first was a trip to Atlanta in Week 3.
San Diego is undefeated at home and probably should be 3-0 ATS as last week’s almost-collapse was the only time the Fleet haven’t covered the number at home. There were questions as to how San Diego’s offense would respond without Philip Nelson but Mike Bercovici, the Week 1 starter, was serviceable last week, throwing for 304 yards and a touchdown, though he completed under 50 percent of his passes (22 of 43).
Lean: San Diego -6. When at home, San Diego is the clear-cut second-best team in the AAF. I'm also just not sold on Birmingham — its only wins have come against Memphis, Salt Lake, and Atlanta when Matt Simms was its QB.
WEEK 6 BEST BET
My best bet for Week 6 in the AAF is the Atlanta Legends -1.5 for a couple of reasons. First, this four-game road trip has to eventually take its toll on San Antonio as football teams rarely, if ever, are forced to play four straight away from home. The road may have started taking its toll on the Commanders last week after they almost blew the 26-0 lead they had built in the first half at Arizona. Second, I really think that Atlanta is finally starting to develop some stability and consistency as a team after going through all the coaching and coordinator changes early in the season, plus the switch at quarterback to Aaron Murray. Take the Legends at -1.5 and let's make it three straight best bet winners.