Anyone have any thoughts on any of my early leans? Thinking the same or opposite? Penn St +2.5 @ Northwestern Cincy @ Houston -8 Auburn @ aTm -7 Utah +1 @ Washington LSU +6.5 @ Bama Because I'm a Nebraska fan I can't bet it but if I weren't I would be laying $$$ down on Sparty. My book as them -6.5 right now. We're just all kinds of terrible.
Week 1 4-6 Week 2 5-5 Week 3 5-5 Week 4 8-2 Week 5 6-4 Week 6 4-6 Week 7 4-6 Week 8 7-3 Week 9 6-3-1 -------------- Total 49-40 55 % Early leans.... CFB I want to take Ohio +22.5 at BG tonight but won't... Ball State +14.5 at WMU ULL -3 at Ga ST Akron +2 at UMASS (Akron ML) Stanford -16 at Col UCF at Tulsa -16.5 Cincy at Hou -8 NFL GB at CAR +2.5 Ten +8 at NO PHI -2.5 at Dal Mia +3 at Buff
College SMU +14 BC +4 NU +6 OSU -23 NFL Steelers -4 Redskins +14 Dolphins +3 Bucs ML Panthers ML Colts +5 Leans NW -2.5 Ok St +5.5 UW -1.5 Vikings -2.5
ESPN Chalk Best Bets. Spoiler After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games. 2015 season record: Fallica: 35-22-3 ATS (last week: 2-3) Coughlin: 25-18-2 ATS (last week: 4-1) 2014 season record: Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent) Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent) Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Alabama Crimson Tide (-6) vs LSU Tigers Fallica: The Alabama defense has been the most dominant unit I've seen this year and it is well equipped to offset Leonard Fournette. I love how Minkah Fitzpatrick and Eddie Jackson have been making plays all year in the secondary. In its last five games against Alabama, LSU has scored 13, 17, 17, zero and nine points. Do I think Alabama can generate 24 points vs. LSU? Yes, I do. With all the talk of these defenses, big plays in the passing game have proved crucial in this rivalry lately. Dating back to 2011 national championship game, LSU has been an underdog away from home five times and the Tigers haven't won or covered any of them. Four of the losses have come by at least 17 points, including a pair of 21-point losses to the Tide (one in Tuscaloosa, one in the previously mentioned title game). Can LSU win the game? Sure it can. Are the Tigers an attractive underdog? Sure they are. And I can't fault anyone who likes them here, but I'll side with the Tide. ATS pick: Alabama 28, LSU 17 Harris: Early betting notes for CFB Week 10 Will Harris offers his betting takeaways from Week 9 of the college football season and looks at the early line intel for Week 11. He also checks in on the Pac-12 title race. Experts: How to bet projected CFP games ESPN Chalk's Chris Fallica, Phil Steele and Will Harris give their best ATS college football bets for the projected playoff games between Clemson and Alabama and Ohio State and LSU. Coughlin: For the first time since 2009, I will not be on the sidelines for what is one of my favorite games of the year, every year. This year the teams square off in Tuscaloosa, which makes me miss it a little less, but that's just because Baton Rouge is my favorite campus in the country. Let's get to the game. It's pretty simple for me -- what do you expect from Brandon Harris, the LSU quarterback? I don't expect much, simply because I just don't see it. He's ninth in the conference in completion percentage and 11th in passing passing yards. Yes, I know, he's so low because of the success of the ground game. But as you know from my previous feelings, this Alabama front seven is unreal and I don't see the LSU offense doing much on a Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. Hey, be happy LSU fans. I'm picking against your Tigers ... again. ATS pick: Alabama 24, LSU 13 Florida State Seminoles (+12) at Clemson Tigers Fallica: I've thrown the question out there this week to a bunch of people: Is this the biggest game for Clemson since it won the national title? The Tigers can dispatch the kings of the ACC and would be a near lock to reach the College Football Playoff. A loss would have people saying they couldn't even beat FSU on their home field as a double-digit favorite, especially with the 'Noles as vulnerable as they've been in a while. Clemson should have won the game last year in Tallahassee, but a series of head-shaking mistakes did them in. On paper, this is no contest. Clemson is in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. FSU has just one win over a team with a winning record, injury concerns and, apparently, a decision to make at QB. I think Clemson will win, but I don't think it will be as easy as many people think, given all the stakes of this game and Clemson's new found position as CFP No. 1. ATS pick: Clemson 30, Florida State 24 Coughlin: What should we expect from Florida State at the quarterback position? Everett Golson or Sean McGuire? Only Jimbo knows, and that's the way Jimbo likes it. Speaking of Jimbo Fisher, this is the first time since he has been the FSU head coach that he has been a double-digit underdog and that makes me fascinated in the style in which Jimbo chooses to call his offensive plays. On the other hand, I kind of challenged Deshaun Watson before he and the Tigers went to Miami and put it on the 'Canes, and he is now playing the best he's played all year. Let's go Dabo! ATS pick: Clemson 38, FSU 24 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs Fallica: Well, this is what we've been waiting for in the Big 12. It's time to find out how the backloaded schedule in November will shake itself out. The Cowboys rallied from 17 down last week to avoid the upset trap and have all their goals still in front of them. TCU has been putting up points on everyone, but has faced just one team with a winning record and three of its four road games were decided by a touchdown or less, including a comeback win at Kansas State. This will be the Horned Frogs' toughest test to date -- a top-25 defense on the road. I love what J.W. Walsh brought to the Cowboys offense last week. There could be something special going on in Stillwater this year and I would be surprised if TCU escaped the final four games unbeaten, with the two trips to the state of Oklahoma and a home game vs Baylor. The last time a top-10 team visited Stillwater, it left with a loss. I think it will happen again here. ATS pick: Oklahoma State 49, TCU 45 Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter Coughlin: Let me just start out by saying that I am worried about the path in which the Big 12 is headed as a conference as we get deeper in the season. That's because there is no title game and the conference schedule is so backloaded. I will also add that the only way a Big 12 team gets in the playoff is if it goes undefeated. It's really hard for me to go against Oklahoma State in this spot, because I know OSU head coach Mike Gundy will have his team ready and he will not be afraid to take shots in this game. But seriously, can't you just say whoever kicks the most field goals in this game will lose? I do think TCU is one of the most improved teams from the start of the season, and I simply trust them in this spot. ATS pick: TCU 48, Oklahoma State 35 San Jose State Spartans (+12.5) vs. BYU Cougars Fallica: The Spartan defense has played pretty well this year, holding opponents to 5.8 yards per pass attempt (No. 2 in FBS) and held Auburn to 342 yards in Jordan-Hare. Running back Tyler Ervin is coming off a huge game vs. New Mexico and if that confidence carries into this week -- and his running allows them to eat some clock -- that, along with a better than you would think pass defense, might cause the Spartans to stick around in this one. ATS pick: BYU 27, San Jose State 20 Vanderbilt Commodores (+21) at Florida Gators Fallica: This has all the looks of a letdown game for the Gators, who are coming off a throttling of Georgia last week. Vanderbilt's defense couldn't hold up against the Houston spread last week, but the Commodores are still No. 17 nationally in defensive efficiency and have been in every SEC game they have played this year. Now, the offense is horrific and I can't see them scoring more than 14, but that might be enough. The Gators win and clinch the SEC East -- and maybe national coach of the year honors for Jim McElwain -- but the Vandy defense keeps things relatively interesting for a little while at least. ATS pick: Florida 28, Vanderbilt 10 Idaho Vandals (+9.5) at South Alabama Jaguars Fallica: Sun Belt rivals Idaho and South Alabama -- OK, I'll stop right there. Kidding aside, the Vandals have turned it around since a 1-4 start and, if they hadn't coughed up a 23-point lead last week, would bring a three-game winning streak into this one. USA has really struggled to get solid QB play this year and with Matt Linehan coming off a couple of good outings, the Vandals offense again might put up some points. FPI has found some value here as well, saying South Alabama is roughly a five-point favorite. I'll take the better offense, the hotter team and the points. ATS pick: Idaho 24, South Alabama 20 Indiana Hoosiers (+6.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Fallica: Indiana has lost four straight since a 4-0 start and the Hoosiers are now scrambling for bowl eligibility. The Hoosiers have nearly pulled upsets over Ohio State and Michigan State, so they can definitely put a scare into the Hawkeyes as well, given that the Buckeyes and Spartans have better offenses (Iowa had just 293 yards vs. Maryland last week). The Hoosiers have a knack of allowing big plays (10 20-yard plays in losses to MSU and OSU) and have had lapses in the kicking game. IU will score, but the Iowa defense will grind out another win. ATS pick: Iowa 30, Indiana 27 Washington Huskies (-1) vs. Utah Utes Fallica: A common narrative I've seen this week is, "Utah is an underdog at Washington?" We've already had the somebody knows something chat a few weeks back, so in addition to that, I will say the Washington defense will make it very hard for Utah to run the ball. Travis Feeney and that group already shut down much better offenses in USC and Arizona. The Huskies are No. 5 in the country in defensive efficiency and while the offense has struggled, I suspect it will do enough at home to push their mark to 5-4 this season. ATS pick: Washington 24, Utah 16 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd Fallica: Marshall is outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency in part to numerous injuries suffered this season. That should help a MTSU defense that has been beaten up by Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech the last few weeks. Middle Tennessee has been a pretty good home team this year, scoring 70, 73 and 42 in its three home games against non-SEC teams. Coming off an embarrassing road loss last week at Louisiana Tech, the Blue Raiders need a win this week to avoid having to win out in order to reach a bowl game. I'd be very surprised if they didn't come to play this week. ATS pick: Middle Tennessee 37, Marshall 24 Maryland Terrapins (+13) vs. Wisconsin Badgers Fallica: The Terps have shown a good bit of life the last two weeks under Mike Locksley. Problem is, they just can't stop turning the ball over. They have nine in the last two games and 28 on the season. But the defense has held up in the last two games despite those turnovers. Maryland outgained Penn State by 103 yards and held Iowa to 293 yards. Wisconsin's defense has held four of five Big Ten teams to 13 points or fewer. The return of Corey Clement was a boost to the Badgers offense last week and he'll have to make some plays this week as well to survive an upset trap. ATS pick: Wisconsin 24, Maryland 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (+11) at Ole Miss Rebels Coughlin: When we get this late in the season, call me crazy but I will more often than not always take double-digit points in a conference game, let alone it being a division game. The Ole Miss offense comes in averaging more than 39 points, so we will have to hope the Hogs' defense can slow them down a little, but I honestly think the Razorbacks will do an effective job in keeping Chad Kelly off the field with their own running game, which features Alex Collins, who is 40 yards away from 1,000 this year. Coach Bret Bielema keeps it close ATS pick: Ole Miss 27, Arkansas 20 Cincinnati Bearcats (+9) at Houston Cougars Coughlin: Houston has easily been one of my favorite teams of the year, and I was on them early, even in the preseason -- but I did shy away from calling them to go undefeated. The reason is because I worry about how ready the Cougars are in their first season under Tom Herman. He made it a point to make training camp the toughest thing his team has ever had to overcome, but I just think Cincinnati is more battle tested in terms of competition on the field. These two teams are ranked No. 2 and 3 in the conference in points per game, so expect a Big 12-type pingpong match. I'll take coach Tommy Tuberville and the points ATS pick: Houston 48, Cincinnati 42
i hit FSU +12.5 early this week hoping the line moves down like i think it should. if it gets to 9.5 then i am going to half the bet on clemson. i think this game sits right at 10 or 11.
Mizzou under 42 I feel like a chump but I can't figure out why that total isn't about 10 points lower so I'm rolling with it
Week 1 4-6 Week 2 5-5 Week 3 5-5 Week 4 8-2 Week 5 6-4 Week 6 4-6 Week 7 4-6 Week 8 7-3 Week 9 6-3-1 -------------- Total 49-40 55 % 10 games. 1. Ball State +14.5 at WMU LOSS 2. Cle at Cincy -11 WIN 3. Cincy at Hou -8 4. ULL -3 at Ga State 5. Duke +8 at UNC 6. TT +8 at WVu 7. Akron +2 at UMASS (akron ML) 8. Phily -2.5 at Dal 9. Ten +8 at NO 10. Navy +8 at Memphis
this week's picks thus far (L)Toledo -7.5 (W)Bengals -11 (W)NC State -4 (PUSH)Clemson -10 (L)Michigan State -4 (L)Houston -8 (W)Iowa -6 (W)Clemson -7.5 (halftime) (W)Bama -7.5
Would've went 2-3 if I had went through with these. I didn't bet the Houston or Utah games though so went 1-2.
Decent week for me. 6-4. Close on ULL. Big time miss on Ball State and Duke. Made some other money plays that hit. Week 1 4-6 Week 2 5-5 Week 3 5-5 Week 4 8-2 Week 5 6-4 Week 6 4-6 Week 7 4-6 Week 8 7-3 Week 9 6-3-1 Week 10 6-4 -------------- Total 55-44-1 55.6 % 10 games. 1. Ball State +14.5 at WMU LOSS 2. Cle at Cincy -11WIN 3. Cincy at Hou -8 LOSS 4. ULL -3 at Ga State LOSS 5. Duke +8 at UNC LOSS 6. TT +8 at WVu WIN 7. Akron +2 at UMASS (akron ML) WIN 8. Phily -2.5 at Dal WIN 9. Ten +8 at NO WIN 10. Navy +8 at Memphis WIN
Baylor -3 I know OU has looked dominant against the bottom of the big 12. And I know Baylor almost lost a trap game @KSU and is starting a freshman QB. But Baylor is going to win that game. Mike Stoops doesn't have a clue how to stop Baylors offense. This is the same OU team who got whooped at the LOS on both sides of the ball against Texas. OU struggled with Tulsa, who runs basically the same offense as Baylor. OU has been getting lit up by teams with good passing offenses the past 3 years (maybe more). Baylor has talent on both lines.