Yea it just moved to 4.5 at 5dimes and Pinnacle about 10 minutes ago. If it goes to 5 I'm going to grab it.
Not sure where you are getting your percentages from, but i am seeing a 50/50 split on the Pitt at ND game, I don't value ND much at all this week. They are coming off the big win at OU. My only concern is whether Pitt can score, but I don't see Notre Dame scoring more than 24. With Duke, the RLM concerns me, as does clemson's shit defense, but Duke got the beat up pretty good against FSU last week, and their defense is bad. Clemson should score 50 points on em pretty easily, and even with clemson's terrible secondary I don't think Duke breaks 35.
Serious RLM in UVA-NC St. game. Does anyone know if there was an injury or anything involved with that?
What I'm playing.. CALIFORNIA -4 PURDUE +3½ ARMY +7 KENTUCKY +7 INDIANA -2½ NEBRASKA -1½ SYRACUSE +5 USC +8 UCLA -3 NORTH TEXAS +4
sbrforum is what have been looking at. Idk how accurate they are, but I think they've been pretty good this year. I think ND is gonna start playing for style points the rest of the season. Also,the Pitt arrests. I agree with you that Clemson should beat the shit out of Duke, but I took Duke for a little bit cuz of the RLM. GL. One of us has to be right.
Cal -4 it is. Too bad a spot for Washington. They may be the strongest example of great home team/terrible road team in the Pac 10. You could make a lot of money if you blindly fade them on the road and back them at home. The fact that Keenan Allen is out and the line hasn't budged makes me like this even more.
Also, heard an interesting stat that every single team has lost their next game after playing Colorado this year. Food for thought in the USC-Oregon game.
I"m gonna get on TCU +4. I was thinking the bottom would fall out on WV when they played Texas, hopefully it was just a week too soon.
I give Sarkisian a pass for 2008 because he inherited an 0-12 team. In the last 3 years they haven't lost too many road games that they were expected to lose IMO... 9 of 14 were against ranked teams, 3 of the non ranked were better teams that year, the other one is BYU 1st game of 2010. I just don't get where the idea of their road vs home disparity comes from. unless it was a reputation they've carried prior to Sark's arrival Also I hiiiighly doubt vegas set that line without considering he got hurt in their game last week. so the line not moving shouldn't be that much of a surprise
so far the only game saturday I'm really sold on taking is Indiana. Leaning towards Under in Bama-LSU. Don't see how everyone saying "Les knows he has to open up the playbook" is actually going to translate to that idiot making adjustments or tailoring a gameplan to an opponent. I realize Bama could score 30 on their own. I don't think LSU gets into the endzone TBH someone talk me down from the ledge
I'm on the under. I don't think LSU scores more than 12 and I don't think Alabama will put up more than 24. The only way I see the over hitting is if Mett's arm punts result in big returns by the Tide, which is not that unlikely.
What I like this weekend aTm -7 @ Miss State Temple + 16 @ Louisville Rice @ Tulane +5.5 BC @ Wake -3 FIU @ South Alabama +3.5 (This line confuses me) Ole Miss +14 @ UGA SJSU -20 @ Idaho
This is a gambling thread man. I'm talking about ATS records. I could care less if they win certain games on the road or lose certain games on the road, I care about what they did against the spread. The fact is Washington is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2 ATS at home. If that's not a huge disparity then I don't know what is. This is a fade Washington play, especially with the public backing a bad road ATS team coming off a monster home win.
well actual football teams playing the games do mean something in gambling. you can lean so much on trends, especially in college due to player turnover. this year they are 0-3 ATS on the road. That's something you could use what are the public %s on the game?
oh well. going against the thread-grain here for better or for worse. think washington is a much better team and cal home field advantage is non-existant. x's and o's play. think washington should win straight up. 75 +4.5 25 +155 also locked in: Bama/LSU Under 41.5 bought a whole point to get 41 on my side UF -16.5 7pt Tease: Ark -2 / Oregon -3.5 N Illinois -34.5 (just a fade UMass play. Took Vandy last week) Leaning but haven't pulled trigger: Miss State +7. Boise -14 -would have to buy whole point
That makes up my mind. These have been money this year. If you are so inclined, I would love to know the details of what you use to come up with this.
I think I'm like 1-5 on the year playing weekday games. So, you people might want to get on them huskies.
I have a top secret formula in excel that I put in Sagarin numbers, offense and defense rankings and it spits out a number to me
usually works out for us I think .. the 3 contrarian amigos .. and I notice GOAB also on a lot of these with us ..
Explain. It seems like on one forum or another every season there is the sagarin debate. I just don't see much value in it as a predictor.
I am an idiot. I watched cal drive down the field and score the tying TD thinking it was Washington who just went up by 14. Instead, tie game.