Lines are popping up. First glance. Trap of the week: Louisville at Syracuse. #10 team (and undefeated) only 3 point favorites on the road against a team that just lost by double digits on the road. This is the week Vegas thinks Louisville goes down. I'll be all over the Orange. NC State -7.5 v. Wake seems high which means I'll likely be on the Wolfpack. NC State coming off brutal home loss, Wake coming off home win. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/college-football/
I know Virginia Tech is struggling (on the road), but they are a beast at home especially on Thursday night. At home they've won 17 of 18, they are 19-6 on Thursday night and they are getting almost 2 TD's against FSU. FSU is 0-3 ATS on the road this year including a loss to NC State. This is a tougher venue than what FSU faced in Raleigh and FSU is facing a better home team in VT. If this goes to 14 I'm grabbing it.
BGSU is on quite the winning streak, will watch that Ohio line. L'Ville -2.5 @ Cuse is tasty if you can grab it before it goes to 3 Minnesota -3 @ Illinois Wisconsin -6 @ Indiana seems like an easy W Oregon -27.5 Iowa St +10 UCLA -15 Tx Tech -25 Oregon State +5.5 Florida -26
worst season through week 10 I can remember for myself .. I had one awesome week like in week 3 and got on a little roll for a couple .. but week's 8-present have been brutal for me.
I went 8-1 (plus a push) ATS and then 2-0 on Teasers, I am almost back to even on the season after losing two huge plays on Nebraska (vs UCLA and Northwestern).
I think the line was set at +2.5 for a reason. I really like Ville to win a close one. The line seems spot on to me.
I was down to my last available $ at 2pm on saturday. Set a limit of $750 on myself with local. Was at -$500 thanks to some horrible drunk NBA betting on wednesday/thursday night and starting the week -$190 (200 is payout #). Lost $210 on morning games: MSU and UF. put my last $40 on a N.Illi / Indiana parlay. P much accepted the fact that I was gonna be paying $750 on wednesday. Won that, Parlayed Kstate/Bama Under and teased Bama/Oregon Saturday night. Yesterday: Panthers straight and 10pt tease: hou/gb/balt. 3pm parlayed: Seahags ML and Bucs. Steelers +4 and Steelers ML. Bucs 2H. 11pm last night I was at +$54. Feel like I'm getting paid $750 just because I'd already accepted that I was paying that out. Normally don't survive those kinds of weekends. Now that bookie is fucked
it might....I had Cuse +2.5 for +105 today so i bought to +3-115. I really like Cuse, UVA, Illinois, and Houston
I kind of do, I am considering trying to middle it and grabbing Louisville -2.5 and then hoping to grab syracuse +3.5
Yea it was set that way to get money on Louisville because the books think Syracuse to win straight up.
Exactly, that .5 off of 3 is key .. they could easily have set it at 3 or even 3.5 and still got plenty on Louisville .. Now, Buffalo screwed us last week with that late garbage TD when they were -3.5 .. but clearly that was the right side and Syracuse is here.
Bingo. The 2.5 is like Wal-Mart selling something for $9.99 instead of $10. They are inciting you to take the "deal" they are throwing at you.
Degen dream week. Games every day. Ball State @ Toledo -7 O/U 69 anyone like? Pretty high total. Heard BS has an improving D
On a neutral field Sagarin thinks Toledo is only 1.5 points better than Ball State on a neutral field. Definitely not the determining factor for placing a bet but at least gives a baseline. I really need a win. Sucked on Saturday, sucked on Sunday, and REALLY sucked last night.
Decided I wasn't going to go full degen on these weekday shit games. One 4 game 6.5 point teaser for all of them. Pays 2-1 Toledo pk Tol/BS Ov 62.5 Ohio +3.5 Arkansas St pk
What are some more public books that are well established? I'm not sure what mine is (bookmaker) but it always seems I'm getting a raw deal on numbers when other people post some of theirs. Is it beneficial to you guys that are members of a bunch of different books? Do you find better numbers enough to matter?
Am I missing something on Miami +1 to UVA? Like...is Vegas really fucking with me? Or should Miami not be a decently sized favorite to UVA?
I'm taking Ball State +6.5 tonight. Also, I wrote an Election Special - I think y'all will find it pretty funny. I've also included a write-up of the game tonight. Tuesday Night Election Special
What are some more thoughts on tonight's game? Percentages and line movement make me lean towards Ball State...