Week 14 CFB/Week 13 NFL

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by NDXOS, Dec 2, 2015.

  1. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2
    Week 5 6-4
    Week 6 4-6
    Week 7 4-6
    Week 8 7-3
    Week 9 6-3-1
    Week 10 6-4
    Week 11 5-5
    Week 12 6-4
    Week 13 8-2
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    Total 74-55-1 57.3 %

    Pick 10

    Early leans...

    AF +5 at SD st
    BG at NIU +12
    App St -17.5 at South Ala
    Temple at Hou -6
    Mich St at Iowa +3.5
    So Miss +7 at WKU
    Texas at Baylor -21



    Car -7 at NO
    Sea v Minn PK
    GB -3 at Det
    SF at CHi -7
     
  2. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    ESPN Best Bets

    2015 season record:
    Fallica:51-37-3 ATS (last week: 2-5)
    Coughlin:35-27-3 ATS (last week: 2-3)

    2014 season record:
    Fallica:44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
    Coughlin:45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

    Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are inbold.Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

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    Clemson Tigers(-5.5) vs.North Carolina Tar Heels
    Over/under:67.5

    Fallica:This is one of those games where it's almost as if it's unknown against unknown. UNC is third among Power 5 teams in offensive efficiency, but hasn't faced a defense better than 20th -- and Clemson is sixth. However, the Tigers have faced just three top-30 offenses this year; gaudy numbers, but against suspect competition?

    [​IMG]
    Abrams: Alabama, Oklahoma sit atop latest Vegas ranks
    ESPN Chalk's Evan Abrams provides the CFB Vegas Rankings after Week 14, an aggregate power rating from Vegas handicappers.

    The Clemson defense has forced the most drives without a first down this season (80), while UNC has the fewest on offense (17). The Tar Heels also haven't beaten a ranked team this season, while the Tigers have close wins over Notre Dame and Florida State. I'm hearing a lot of UNC upset talk this week, which will probably drive this number down. Can UNC block Clemson? Can its wideouts get separation versus best secondary its faced? I think UNC is pretty good -- much better than the College Football Playoff selection committee is giving it credit for -- but Clemson has come too far to let a trip to the CFP slip away now.

    ATS pick: Clemson 31, North Carolina 21

    Coughlin:If there is one game that could be the toughest to predict this week, this is it. And that is why I am staying away from a side and projecting a big-time scorefest. The reason I am excited for this game is that both of these offenses love to take shots down the field and I'm thinking both of those teams will connect on a bunch of them. UNC averages 41 points on offense while Clemson averages 38, so let's go with the over here.

    Pick:Clemson 42, North Carolina 37 (over the total 67 points)

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    Florida Gators(+17.5) vs.Alabama Crimson Tide
    Fallica:I went down in flames with Florida last week and I can't imagine too many people will be on the Gators side here after that performance, but I'll hesitantly lean toward taking the points with the Gators here. The defense should come to play as it has all year and runningDerrick Henry46 times last week -- and 295 times on the year -- might take a little toll this week. What if the Gators pressureJake Cokerand get a short field a few times? Also, will Nick Saban pour it on Jim McElwain? I don't think Florida can win, but I can see a game within 17 points.

    ATS pick:Alabama 27,Florida 13

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    Coughlin:This one seems pretty simple: no one is taking the Gators after watching them last week, or the week before or the week before that. And why would you? I know I gave them out last week, but I thought the Gators would be able to kick field goals and hold Florida State to field goals. What might be the biggest factor in this game is whether or not Saban will run it up McElwain, his former offensive coordinator. I say he doesn't.

    ATS pick:Alabama 20,Florida 3

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    Michigan State Spartans(-3.5) vs.Iowa Hawkeyes
    Fallica:This is the best opponent Iowa has faced this year by 13 spots, according to FPI -- Wisconsin was the previous best at No. 27. Those waiting for Iowa to be tested in class will finally get their wish, as Michigan State has three wins (Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan) better than anything Iowa has accomplished. Michigan State is also the best offense Iowa has faced in terms of offensive efficiency (MSU is 23rd, Indiana is 26th) -- no other team Iowa has faced ranks in the top 35 nationally in efficiency. Iowa is a nice team, but Saturday I think the Hawkeyes finally face defeat to a better team, one which is still hungry to prove people wrong -- and maybe even more importantly as healthy as it has been in a few weeks even withoutRJ Williamson. Emotion and intangibles can carry a team a long way and they'll have to for Iowa to come out ahead in this one.

    ATS pick: Michigan State 34, Iowa 24

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    Coughlin:I'm not sure there's a coach in college football I trust more than Michigan State's Mark Dantonio. Think about the spots you have seen his team win in recent years -- as an underdog in Big Ten title game two years back, as an underdog in the Rose Bowl two years back, as an underdog in the Cotton Bowl last year and most importantly as an underdog last month in Columbus. Now, I know Sparty is not the underdog, but I just can't get past this trust I have for Dantonio. Michigan State finds a way here.

    ATS pick: Michigan State 27, Iowa 17

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    Temple Owls(+6.5) atHouston Cougars
    Fallica:I'll side with the Owls and the points here as they have the eighth-most efficient pass defense in the country and did a great job against Memphis'Paxton Lyncha few weeks back. Houston has struggled in the favorite role lately, failing to cover the last three times. Temple has done a good job all year limiting turnovers and if the Owls can do that, along with getting some solid production fromJahad Thomas, they should put the defense in a position to be rested and giveGreg Ward Jr. and the Houston offense all it can handle. However, you do have to think Tom Herman apparently staying at Houston will give his team a spark.

    ATS pick:Houston 30,Temple 28

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    Baylor Bears(-20.5) vs.Texas Longhorns
    Fallica:After last week's loss to TCU in a monsoon, I have to think this is a "lay it and laugh" spot for the Bears. Texas is beat up physically (Tyrone Swoopeswill start at QB, among the injuries) and I would think Art Briles and Baylor would love nothing more than to blow out Texas like TCU did earlier this year to send the Longhorns to a 4-8 season and further its own dominance in the state en route to a likely Sugar Bowl berth. That Texas win over Oklahoma seems ages ago.

    ATS pick: Baylor 48, Texas 21

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    USC Trojansvs.Stanford Cardinal(-4.5)
    Coughlin:First off, why is the total for this game right around 60, when the two teams combined to score 72 points when they met earlier this year? That scares me off the total. Second, you can't like what you saw from the Stanford defense last week when the Cardinal were without starting cornerbacksAlijah HolderandRonnie Harris, as the Notre Dame offense went up and down the field at will. In my opinion, the Trojans have better weapons and that scares me. But the biggest factor in this game, will be the playcalling of Clay Helton in his first game since being officially named the new head coach. I think he stays in attack mode for the Trojans.

    ATS pick: USC 35, Stanford 34

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    Air Force Falconsvs.San Diego State Aztecs(-5)
    Coughlin:Do you ever have one of those teams you always like to bet, because you seem like you win whenever you take them? Well, that's Air Force for me. I always feel good when I take them or give them out because I know they're giving maximum effort -- and yes, I'm a sucker for the option offense. Plus, a wise man told me a long time ago that you always take the Falcons when they are underdogs.

    ATS pick: Air Force 34, San Diego State 30
     
    cal2431 likes this.
  3. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Donor
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    my card thus far (looks like we agree on houston, iowa, so miss, vikings; disagree on saints):

    southern miss +8
    southern miss o74
    UH -6
    USC +4.5
    UNC o67.5
    UNC +5
    Iowa +3.5

    texans +3
    vikings PK 3x
    saints +7
    ravens +4
    raiders +3
     
  4. The Hotch

    The Hotch Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Arizona WildcatsArizona DiamondbacksPhoenix SunsArizona CardinalsLos Angeles Chargers

    Entirely possible I'm way off on this but, NFL-wise, really like Stl +6 and the under 43 versus the Cards. Cards are legit but they're hurting at RB and are due for a let down plus the Rams usually get up for games like these and have a history of playing the cards tough in Stl.
     
  5. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
    Donor
    Tiger Woods

    Noon picks

    Temple +5
    Baylor -21.5
    WKU -7.5
    WKU/Southern Miss u77
     
  6. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati RedsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh PenguinsCleveland Cavaliers

    Does anyone know if Fsusem will post bowl sheet/picks this year
     
  7. dallasdawg

    dallasdawg does the tin man have a sheet metal cock?
    Staff Donor
    Texas RangersDallas MavericksDallas CowboysDallas StarsOklahoma Sooners

    What's up with the Florida line movement
     
  8. colonelrascals

    colonelrascals Mayonnaise-colored Benz, I push miracle whips
    Donor
    Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston AstrosHouston RocketsTennisTottenham HotspurTexas Tech Red Raiders alt

    WKentucky -7.5 WIN
    UH -5.5 WIN
    ULL -2 WIN
    Clem -6.5
     
    LeVar Burton likes this.