Week 2 CFB

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TheGodfather, Sep 8, 2015.

  1. *DIESEL*

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    What do we like? Pre-research, these caught my eye:

    Clemson -17 vs Appy State
    Rutgers -2 vs Wazzou
    GT -28.5 vs Tulane
    ND -11.5 at UVA
    UGA -20.5 at Vandy
    Middle Tennessee +34.5 at Bama
    Arky -21.5 vs Toledo
    Iowa St +3.5 vs Iowa
    OU pick at UT
    Marshall -3 at Ohio
    Mizzou -10.5 @ Ark St
    UK +7.5 @ South Car
    USC -43 vs Idaho
    UO +3.5 @ MSU
    FIU +7.5 @ Indiana
    Temple +6.5 @ Cinci
    Boise -2.5 @ BYU
    UCLA -28.5 @ UNLV
     
    #1 *DIESEL*, Sep 8, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2015
  2. Corky Bucek

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    Already on UGA -19.5 (-115)
     
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  3. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
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    I imagine the public will be all over Clemson
     
  4. b7

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    Do you mean Boise -2.5
     
  5. TLAU

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    same
     
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  6. *DIESEL*

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    Yup. Fixed in OP. Good catch.
     
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  7. dome foam

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    i really don't want to touch boise again after friday night. they fucking killed me.
     
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  8. b7

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    I have Boise at -2.5 and the Louisville Houston over 53 so far
     
  9. Guns

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    Thoughts on Western Kentucky -1.5 against LaTech? WKU beat Vandy.
     
  10. LeVar Burton

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    UMass +14.5 at Colorado
     
  11. Corky Bucek

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    Is UMass improved any? They were pretty terrible last season.
     
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  12. *DIESEL*

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    Faded them and smu pretty much all season last year.
     
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  13. Corky Bucek

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    SMU was a nice fade last year.

    My book has Colorado -13. I haven't looked into it, but this will be UMass's first game this season and Colorado is obviously coming off a loss at Hawaii and last year Colorado won at home 41-38.
     
  14. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    They bring back 10 starters on offense and 9 on defense. I like their linebackers and defensive backs and don't believe we'll see the same result from the Colorado passing game as we did last year (318 yards, 3 TD's).

    They were beating Colorado 31-20 at the end of 3 quarters last year. The only way UMass doesn't cover this game is if they badly lose the turnover battle. Might even take UMass ML
     
  15. Alshon

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    Also like OU pk @ UT. Just a hunch.

    On Cal -12 vs SDSU.

    Will be blindly backing Snyder for the full game and 2nd half just because he's an ATS God.

    I had App State circled for this week, but I wish they were getting a few more points. Kind of a weird spot for Clemson, just played a corky offense last week and have Louisville coming up on a short week. App state has a nice ATS streak going.

    as long as oregon's team total stays under 5 TDs, I will be all over that.
     
  16. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

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    I have a 7 point teaser in so far..

    UGA -13.5
    Clemson -11
    Louisville -5
    Missouri -4
    ND -5

    Feeling pretty good about it.
     
  17. Corky Bucek

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    :justsayin:
     
  18. King_Of_Expo_Park

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    I would be inclined to fade UCLA, UGA, ND and Temple
     
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  19. Shakenbake

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    I like the Temple fade. Coming off a high and on the road.
    I would fade BYU too in the same spot although at home. Boise will have a whole week to prepare for Tanner Mangum.
     
    #19 Shakenbake, Sep 9, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2015
  20. Alshon

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    No offense, Corky.
     
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  21. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Going to look at this some more but I might change my tune on this game. Thanks for the info. :heythere:
     
  22. 1

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    My book has this down to +12.5 already :embarrassed:
     
  23. *DIESEL*

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    Why them, specifically?
     
  24. dome foam

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    seems like everyone is on UGA. and it makes complete sense.

    vandy is awful. i have them a good 30 pts in difference. no situational stuff that makes me hesitate. UGA has no look ahead or let down.
     
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  25. 1

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    Just threw some decent money down on a 3 team, 10 pt teaser

    Notre Dame -2.5
    Georgia -11
    UMass +22.5
     
    #25 1, Sep 9, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2015
  26. LeVar Burton

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    Aight, oletdoit
     
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  27. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

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    Thoughts on the Friday night games?
     
  28. Juan

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    Like a lot of favorites this week. That always makes me nervous when that happens. Here is what I got thus far.

    UGA -19 (got it Tuesday)

    ND -10 (got it Tuesday and bought half)

    Boise -2

    Arkansas -21

    Kentucky +7.5

    Louisville -12

    Bama -34

    GA Tech -28

    Buffs- 12
     
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  29. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Picks in Bold.

    I'm in a pool were you have to pick 10 games. So I wouldn't normally play this many.

    CFB

    Oregon @ Mich State -3
    Tulsa @ GT -28
    BUF +21 @
    Penn State
    UGA -20 at Vandy
    Tulsa +4 @ New Mexico
    UMASS +13.5 @ Colorado
    App State @ Clemson -18


    NFL
    Indy -2.5 @ Buf


    Some others I'm looking at........

    CFB
    Temple @ Cincy -6.5
    USF @ FSU -28
    ND -11
    at UVA
    ECU at UF -20.5
    OU -1
    @ Ten
    LSU @ Miss State +4


    NFL
    Ten +3 @ TB
    GB -6.5 at CHI
    PHI -3 at ATL
     
    #29 NDXOS, Sep 10, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 10, 2015
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  30. *DIESEL*

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    I'm laying a ton of chalk this week too:

    Sparty - 3 vs Oregon
    Oklahoma pick @ tenn
    UGA - 20.5 @ vandy
    Fiu +7.5 @ Indiana
    GT - 28 vs Tulane
    Boise -3 @ byu
    ND - 12 @ UVa
    Clemson - 17 vs app St
     
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  31. Juan

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    Leaning Sparty as well. BOL :beerchug:
     
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  32. *DIESEL*

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    Yeah. Didn't like how many points Oregon gave up last week, plus Sparty had them on the ropes in Eugene last year before Marcus took over, and I'm not confident that Oregon can even fully open the offensive playbook to Adams yet. Kid has only been on campus for 3 weeks.
     
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  33. Juan

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    Yeah all of that stands out for sure. Michigan State has had this game circled, they want revenge after blowing it last year. I know I would. Vernon is talented but he is not Marcus Maritota good. As you mentioned he doesn't know the offense as well as MM either. I think Sparty's O matches up well with Oregon's D. Oregon is going to score but MSU is obviously better all around on D. I think Sparty has control for most of the game.
     
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  34. bstaple12

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    Anyone with insider want to post Phil Steele's picks for the week?
     
  35. *DIESEL*

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    Idk about his picks of the week, but I caught him on ESPN radio and he took Sparty, lsu, Oklahoma, byu, and UVa all ats.
     
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  36. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Oh yea. And I had NE -7 for a billion dollars.
     
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  37. TLAU

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    pretty sure i'm just gonna roll hard on UGA, OU and then parlay them.
     
  38. TLAU

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    Actually think there's a lot of value in fading Temple this week. Has to be the biggest win for that program maybe ever right? And it was at home. Now they have to go on the road to a place that's not "tough to play at" but will have a pretty packed house I'd imagine.
    Cindy played a D2 school in week 1 and has M-OH in week 3, so they've pretty much been preparing for this game (didn't even know they were in the same conference but yea it's a conference opener) for a few weeks now...

    Cincy -6.5 at home looking pretty good to me

    /thinkingoutloud
     
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  39. TLAU

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    went ahead and went all in on the balance so I don't make a bunch of small bets on random games.

    UGA -19.5
    OU -130
    Cincy -6.5

    Parlay: UGA -19.5 / OU -130 / Cincy -6.5 / Mich St -180
     
  40. Patface

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    Sorry forgot to post I got it at +120 ML before the game started. :/
     
  41. 1

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    That sonuvabitch
     
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  42. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I agree with you on this. Temple's defense is good but Cincy has a solid QB and can score. New stadium for Cincy this week and you would think there has to be some sort of let down after the big PSU win.
     
  43. dome foam

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    this UGA game is throwing me off, esp after last night.

    wku's offense looked outstanding (albeit against La tech at home). but vandy held them to 246 total yards, and 20 yards rushing.

    vandy also put up a decent chunk of yardage against wku. turnovers killed them. i know the line moved from 17.5 to 21, but 95% of the bets are on UGA. i really hate being on the favorite side when that is the case.

    my gut tells me there is a 30 pt difference between UGA and vandy. no situational stuff that plays into this game. the line moved down to 20.5, meaning some people are actually playing vandy now.

    i'm dreading a 40-21 backdoor cover.
     
  44. fattus

    fattus Well-Known Member
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    BSU@BYU under 55
    USU@Utah over 44.5
    Hawaii +41 @ OSU over 65
    UGA -21 Vandy
    OU@UT under 63
    Arizona -11.5 @ Nevada
    Mizzou -10.5 @ Arky State
    Idaho +43 @ USC over 67
    LSU @ MSU +4 under 50
     
  45. Juan

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    Here you go

    Best Week 2 college football bets
    23h - INSIDER COLLEGE FOOTBALL
    • [​IMG]
      Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
    Boise State Broncos at BYU Cougars(+3)[/paste:font]
    10:15 p.m., ESPN2

    When I wrote my magazine, I figured the two guys BYU could ill afford to lose would be quarterback Taysom Hill and running back Jamal Williams. Well, here we are after one game and both are gone! However, I am actually still siding with BYU in this one.

    Boise State is a very experienced team with 17 returning starters. The Broncos just faced their ex-coach Chris Petersen in one of their biggest home games in history, knocking off Washington with a 337-179 edge in yardage. Boise State is my pick as the team to nab the top Group of 5 champion bid to one of the major bowls.

    Tanner Mangum is BYU's new QB and is further along coming off a mission than I thought he would be. He had the big Hail Mary touchdown pass last week versus Nebraska. He is a better passer than Hill, is also mobile and was my No.8-rated QB when he came out of high school. I believe that quarterbacks usually have one of their roughest games of their career in their first road start in front of 50,000-plus fans. That is the case for Ryan Finley for Boise State. Both teams have solid home edges and it's no surprise the home team has won the past four meetings. I like BYU in this one.

    ATS pick: BYU
    Score: BYU 27, Boise St. 24

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    No. 22 Arizona Wildcats at Nevada Wolf Pack (+12)
    7 p.m., CBS College Sports

    Arizona is No. 22 in this week's AP poll, but didn't impress me last week. The Wildcats' opponent was UTSA, which is a young team that had just two returning starters on offense yet still had a 525-392 edge in yardage. UTSA with a rebuilt offensive line and young QB threw the ball 45 times and wasn't sacked once -- and that was in Arizona.

    Nevada did beat UC Davis by only 17, but led 31-10 before allowing a long, late drive for a TD with just six seconds left against its backups. Nevada was 7-6 last season but had three net close wins, so was basically three plays away from being 10-3. I think Nevada held some things back last week and will spring some surprises here. The Wolfpack will be confident at home; they went to Arizona last season and lost by only seven.

    Nevada coach Brian Polian is 7-5 at home; only one of those losses was by more than seven points. Arizona is also without its star linebacker Scooby Wright IIIfor a few more games.

    ATS pick: Nevada
    Score: Arizona 35, Nevada 30

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    Toledo Rockets at No. 18 Arkansas Razorbacks (-21)
    4 p.m., SEC Network

    Last season, Arkansas hosted eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois and was my first best bet on the ESPN Friday Night halftime selections. The Razorbacks rolled to a 52-14 win and covered by 24.5 points. Here they take on a Toledo team I think will win the MAC this year, but the situation favors Arkansas. Toledo had its game last week against Stony Brook delayed, then canceled at halftime, because of severe weather, with Toledo leading just 16-7.

    The Rockets have a big game and a more winnable one on deck at home vs. a Power 5 member in Iowa State. Their goal this weekend should be to stay healthy against the huge Arkansas offensive line. The Rockets will be without RBKareem Hunt and defensive end Allen Covington (two of their top players) for a second straight week.

    Toledo's biggest problem here, though, is its own offensive line, which has zero returning starters and was far from overwhelming against Stony Brook. Facing this solid Arkansas defense on the road, the Rockets will struggle.

    ATS pick: Arkansas
    Score: Arkansas 48, Toledo 17

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    No. 14 LSU Tigers (-4.5) at No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs
    9:15 p.m., ESPN

    LSU had won 14 in a row in this series and was at home last season but was ambushed by Dak Prescott and Co. Mississippi State jumped to a 34-10 lead in Death Valley before LSU mounted a comeback, but lost 34-29. The previous time in Starkville, in 2013, LSU handled the cow bells and won 59-26.

    Mississippi State had only a 442-413 edge in yardage at Southern Miss last week, and the Golden Eagles actually had more time of possession (37:45 to 22:15). LSU had its game against McNeese State canceled by lightning after a few plays, so the Tigers are at a disadvantage, having not played a game yet.

    From 2010 to 2013, Mississippi State was 0-8 at home vs. ranked teams, but last season, with a veteran squad that had 16 returning starters, the Bulldogs went 2-0. Now they have a much less experienced team, with just seven returning starters. LSU recently had been hit hard by underclassmen leaving early for the NFL draft, but now has its most veteran team in quite some time with 15 returning starters.

    The Bulldogs have the edge at quarterback with Prescott, but LSU has the edge at every other position, ranking in my top 16 in six of the other seven categories and No. 21 on the offensive line. None of Mississippi State's other seven units (outside of QB) rank in my top 30. LSU has the edge on offense, defense and special teams. I will go with the stronger team in LSU to grab the road win and get revenge for last season's rare upset loss.

    ATS pick: LSU
    Score: LSU 30, Mississippi State 20

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    No. 7 Oregon Ducks at No. 5 Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)
    8 p.m., ABC

    I can make a great case for Oregon, which is 7-1 on the road versus ranked teams and has been an underdog exactly one time in the past six years, and it won that game 53-30. Vernon Adams Jr. led the Ducks to 61 points last week against Eastern Washington.

    Michigan State did not meet expectations last week but did lead Western Michigan 31-10 and maybe started peeking ahead to this game. The Spartans lost only two games last season, and they were to the two teams that played in the national title game.

    This year, the Spartans look like the stronger team. They have my No. 1-rated offensive line, No. 2-rated defensive line and a veteran senior QB in Connor Cook. Adams did well last week but did not arrive until after August camp had started, so he can't have 100 percent of the offense at his disposal. Michigan State has the home and defensive edge; Oregon allowed 549 yards and 42 points to Eastern Washington, despite EWU having a first-time QB starting on the road.

    ATS pick: Michigan State
    Score: Michigan State 37, Oregon 30

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    Western Michigan Broncos at Georgia Southern Eagles (+5)
    6 p.m.

    Western Michigan was impressive in its big home game versus Michigan State last week, and as I expected, it stayed under the number, losing by 13. Georgia Southern suspended QB Kevin Ellison for the first two games this season. Favian Upshaw may be the fastest player on the team but hit just 2 of 13 passes as the Eagles were shut out by West Virginia.

    I expect a different Upshaw this week. He is a young quarterback who was making his first start, facing a veteran West Virginia defense that is the best coach Dana Holgorsen has ever fielded. Now Upshaw is taking on a Western Michigan defense that was thinking about Michigan State all August, he is at home and still has Matt Breida in the backfield.

    Last season Georgia Southern went on the road and almost upset both North Carolina State (lost by one) and Georgia Tech (lost by four). While Western Michigan was in a bowl last season and has some solid offensive weapons, the Broncos are not in that class. Georgia Southern has only the Citadel on deck and will be fired up for its home opener and could pull the upset.

    ATS pick: Georgia Southern
    Score: Georgia Southern 31, Western Michigan 30

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Wisconsin Badgers (-32)
    Noon, ESPNU

    Last week I used Alabama as my best bet on the ESPN Friday Night halftime going against Wisconsin and it played out just like I thought. In that game I had the Tide winning by 18, and that was their margin of victory (35-17). Wisconsin's offensive line had little cohesion in the month of August, was taking on the best defensive front seven in football away from home and managed just 40 yards rushing on 21 carries.

    The situation and opponent are much different this week. Miami was just 2-10 last season and has only 12 returning starters. The Redhawks were competitive in some games down the stretch, but that was due to Notre Dame transfer QB Andrew Hendrix, who threw for more than 3,000 yards. Hendrix is gone, as are last season's top rusher and receiver, and they have just two starters back on the offensive line, a unit that allowed 42 sacks in 2014.

    The matchup I like best is that big Wisconsin offensive line versus a smallish Miami defensive line. Last season against the four toughest rush offenses it faced, Miami allowed 291 YPG rushing and 6.1 YPC. Wisconsin has only Troy on deck, and even with RB Corey Clement questionable, I expect that big offensive line to gain a lot of confidence.

    ATS pick: Wisconsin
    Score: Wisconsin 44, Miami (Ohio) 3

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Virginia Cavaliers (+13)
    3:30 p.m., ABC

    Last week I had the Irish in this spot when they hosted a young Texas team, and they delivered with a 38-3 rout and 30-to-8 first-down edge. They take on a Virginia team that was outgained by host UCLA 503 yards to 336, losing 34-16.

    Virginia is an under-the-radar team and the only reason I didn't put the Cavs on my most improved list is their brutal schedule, which features 10 bowl teams from last season, with five of the games on the road. They have only 10 returning starters but brought in a lot of solid transfers.

    Virginia last season played UCLA tough, and upset both Louisville and Miami (Fla.), all at home. In August, the line was Notre Dame minus-6.5, but after last week's results, the number is 13 and could climb higher. I originally had Notre Dame winning by 10, and still do. It has a huge home game on deck against ranked Georgia Tech next week, so this is a sandwich game.

    ATS pick: Virginia
    Score: Notre Dame 30, Virginia 20

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    Oregon State Beavers at Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)
    Noon, ABC

    If you are wondering why this makes it as one of the marquee games for the week, it is because it's Jim Harbaugh's first home game as the Wolverines' coach.

    Oregon State true freshman QB Seth Collins is electric and will probably leap over a Michigan player at some point in the game, just like he did against FCS Weber State last week. He had 152 yards rushing, but keep in mind that was against a team that was 2-10 last season and was at home (and the Beavers led just 6-0 at the half).

    Last week, I called for Utah to beat Michigan by seven -- and while it did, I came away impressed with the Wolverines. They were just 5-7 last season, but they had a top-10 defense that allowed just 311 yards per game. The Wolverines have seven returning starters on defense and get the addition of Jabrill Peppers, who won the starting job last season but was injured and redshirted.

    Collins may be confident now, but this is not Weber State at home. It is Michigan, in front of 100,000-plus on the road, and the crowd will be loud for Harbaugh's home debut. Oregon State is a rebuilding team with just 10 returning starters, and it will show.

    ATS pick: Michigan
    Score: Michigan 35, Oregon State 13

    [​IMG][​IMG]
    Tulane Green Wave at No. 15 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-28)
    3:30 p.m.


    Last season, Tulane did very well against Georgia Tech at home. Tulane led 21-14 in the second quarter but got worn down and ended up losing by 17, despite being outgained on yards by only 359 to 327.

    Georgia Tech does have Notre Dame on deck, but the Yellow Jackets figure to wear down Tulane and pull away late. Since they lost to North Carolina last season, they have been on quite a roll. They are 7-1 SU and in their seven games against FBS teams in that stretch, they have covered by 23 PPG. Tulane has to be disappointed after last week's blowout loss at home. I like Georgia Tech big in this one.

    ATS pick: Georgia Tech
    Score: Georgia Tech 45, Tulane 10
     
  46. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Any thoughts on Minnesota -6.5 @ Colorado State?
     
  47. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
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    I'm going to pass, but if I were to play, I'd go gophers
     
  48. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I thought so too...

    I need 3 of games for my pools, any leans?

    UMASS +13.5 AT Colorado
    ND -11 At UVA
    FSu -28 Home v USF
    Clemson -18 Home v App State

    Ten +3 at TB
    STL +4 Home v SEA
    GB -65 AT CHI
    NYG +6 AT DAl
    Jax +.38 Home v Car
     
  49. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
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    I'm a bears fan, so take this how you will, but I think gb absolutely pushes our shit in. It pains me to say it, but it's the truth. All our wr's are hurt, our d sucks, cutler sucks even when our wr's are healthy....think we're in trouble.
     
  50. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I agree. I'm in this pool that lock the lines on Friday morning to submit picks Friday night. So I have GB -6.5. In Chicago also and the local chat hasn't been good. With Alshon semi hurt and the K White kid out I think it might be tough for CHI.

    Just hate taking road favs. Thanks man.

    Best of luck.
     
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