Lines are out: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/college-football/ Going to jump on Auburn -17. Like UNC +4 What looks good early to everyone?
Think it will move down? Could see it going either way because the public loves chalk but they also might be enamured with LA Monroe after that win.
Virginia Tech -13.5 UL Lafayette +24 Northwestern -4.5 UCF -13.5 Kentucky -6 Kansas State -28 Georgia -44.5 BYU -3.5 UCLA -17.5 Two Overs I will take almost no matter what Rice/La. Tech Over Houston/UCLA Over
Sports Insight's picks have done pretty well so far. Square Plays: 6-2 +3.5 Steam Moves: 5-1 +3.5 Smart Money: 15-8 +6.2 Best Bet: 8-5 (not sure the unit count) Anybody know if these plays are posted anywhere on any forum?
First look this is what I like. Texas -11 Mizzou -7 Ga Tech -10 New Mexico +33 Wisconsin -13 Ok State -22
not sure how responsive that tracker is, but it's fun to watch the boards light up after sharp moves, RAS releases, etc
I also like FSU, Tennessee, and GT for the same reason I like Auburn. Letdown spot for Wake, UF, and UVA.
Not sure the win against Arky doesn't make ULM even more dangerous. Gives them the confidence they can win again and do something special. Auburn at 0-2 is going to be feeling some major pressure in this game, probably will be hearing the boo-birds early at home if things don't go well from the start.
Those are fair points. I just see this as a huge letdown spot. Game reminds me of Michigan State last year after that huge emotional win against Wisconsin only to lay a goose egg following week against Nebraska. Public was all over Michigan State in the second game and Vegas cleaned up. Different teams so obviously doesn't automatically translate, that's just how I sort of look at these type of games. I also like that the public is going to load up on ULM and that Vegas set that line that high (although like you said will likely come down over the week).
This Auburn team is not good. They can't consistently do anything well offensively, and they aren't good at all against spread offenses. Auburn may right the ship somewhat on offense, but they won't be able to shut down ULM's offense. Now, Auburn could be a completely different team at home on Saturday, but don't hold your breath. I doubt they can beat anyone by 17 or even 14 at this point.
At the risk of seeming argumentative, let me further explain my perspective. The letdown angle is very powerful and is validated all too often. But I don't think you can group ULM in as a letdown candidate with teams like Michigan State and a hail mary win over Wisconsin. The situations are different. Do they have enough emotional capital to sustain a winning effort two weeks in a row? I think so. It's not like they had miraculous play after play to stay in the game. ULM pretty much just stayed within themselves and played solid football against Arky throughout. Things just took care of themselves. The same level of execution will be enough to keep up with Auburn, if not win the game outright. A small time (yet capable) school coming off a huge upset just makes them more dangerous. Pretty easy to sell a team that just beat a top 10 SEC team on the road on the fact that they can do it again against a much lesser team and rattle the SEC's cage. I'm much more worried about Auburn imploding on itself as they deal with major QB/head coach/defensive question marks in front of a restless home crowd.
I feel like I'm in on secret that no one else is aware of at the moment .. but Arizona State is going to beat Missouri by 14 points .. I don't really want another 5 page argument with that Gator fan in Iowa about my lack of money management skills, so I won't put exactly what I have on this game .. Let's just say it will be the only game I bet and leave it at that.
Certainly good points all around. I admit, I can be own worst enemy sometimes when I rely on certain angles too often. Even if you throw out the letdown game all together, I also like to look at team value. Right now ULM is at all time high having just put up their best win in school history. Now I consider them extremely overvalued. The Arkansas game was a huge win no doubt, but that was also their first game of the season and had all offseason to prepare for it, and they did it against Arkansas team who played their backup quarterback for the majority of the game (who prior to playing had 7 career pass attempts). Now they have to turn around and play their second SEC East team (albeit an average Auburn team) on the road with 5 days to prepare. Auburn on the other hand I consider undervalued. Their loss to Miss State was bad. But also played very well for 3.5 quarters against a top ten Clemson team. I just view the pressure differently. I think Auburn will come out pissed and put it to LA Monroe. They could certainly lay an egg again, but I just think they are better than their 0-2 record shows and I think Vegas agrees with that line opening so high.
Good discussion. One point I have to agree with you on: ULM stock is at a high, and Auburn's is at a low. would love to hear your thoughts on this one
- New ASU coach has this team playing at a crazy tempo - QB Taylor Kelly has been an efficiency machine so far this season - Illinois defense is significantly better than Missouri D, should be even more opportunities for plays - ASU has recruited very well recently, but now they don't make dumb plays or penalties to keep opposing team on the field - Missouri had a huge game this past week (SEC opener) came out and played their hearts out and ultimately got pounded into submission. Now they have to recover and gameplan for a team that runs an offense with very little game film available and a team that is unranked from the Pac-12. "Georgia effect" will carry over to this game and aid in the loss
Think ASU is the most undervalued team in the country at the moment, Missouri doesn't have the DL to get pressure on the ASU QB and their secondary won't be able to keep up. Team got pounded against Georgia and now need to defend a team that snaps the ball every 12 seconds. They will get gassed, and Kelly who is completing passes at 78% so far will pick them apart. I think Franklin is regressing as well, don't see where they can go score for score.
Just an odd thing to consider, not that Kansas is supposed to be any good (obviously they aren't) but just how not good are they? They were -13 to Rice, and lost. That means Rice is coming off a win on the road as a DDD .. Now they travel to La Tech and are getting 3 TDs .. moral to the story, don't back Kansas, ever.
Ohio -6.5 to Marshall is the biggest head scratcher of the season .. would definitely look into the Herd here.
I don't want to be too reactionary to yesterday and all, but Wisconsin is giving 14 pts to probably the best team they've played so far.
And they just fired their o-line coach: @AdamMertzWSJ: Mike Markuson is out as #Badgers offensive line coach
I'm at a loss here as well. Ohio has played two mediocre teams and one both games, the 2nd game convincingly. Marshall got waxed by West Virginia and beat up on W Carolina. Not sure about that line.
I've done decent the first few weeks, but I am getting back into my trap of betting too small on too many games. I am nickel and dimeing myself to death and it makes the weekend not very fun to have so many negligible bets out. I've picked 3 games which I am going 4 units on, and will hopefully leave it at that. Texas A&M -13 at SMU. SMU lost by 35 at Baylor. Texas A&M is coming off a huge home loss, but they have too much firepower to not score 45 on SMU. Texas A&M's defense looked surprisingly good against Florida. Ohio St -17 at home against Cal. Cal is terrible -- see Nevada loss. Ohio St should shred them. Early (11am kick) for west coast team traveling to the Shoe? AZ State +7 against Mizzou. Following Expo Park mostly.
A few games I like this week: BC +4 Ohio -6.5 Arizona St +7 Utah +3.5 Ohio State -17.5 New Mexico +34.5
Others may disagree but when a line feels dirty (too small or too large) and/or too good to be true, there's a good chance it is. Just last week three lines that felt dirty and the public fell for them and backed all three favorites: Nebraska -5 (UCLA wins straight up), Oklahoma State -10 (Arizona wins straight up and BIG), and Wisconsin -6.5 (Oregon State wins straight up). Vegas is smarter than all of us. They know what kind of lines entice the betting public and they use that to their advantage.
I agree with everything you just said. Also, people get too hung up on wins and losses from week(s) before without any regard for specific match ups and such
I agree, but I think the Auburn line is way too high, which will most likely get the public to back ULM. Maybe Vegas knows something about Auburn that I don't.
Yea I definitely agree with Friends. Have been fooled too often by too good to be true lines. As far as Matchups go... This is a horrible matchup for AU. ULM is good at an offense that we have not shown the ability to stop or even slow down in the last 3-4 years. The only angle I could see is that we could stop them consistently in the red zone and somehow our offense clicks one game. At this point betting on AU at that line is betting on Frazier to have a good game and AU to figure out something when we're in the RZ on offense. Think I saw we've had 20 plays in the RZ for a total of 5ish yards and 0 TDs.
- Maybe Vegas knows something about Auburn that I don't. - I would say they know something about all these teams that we don't .. their success is predicated on having the most information possible
texas -10.5 at ole miss. it's ole miss. terrible OL. our DL will get pressure and make it a rough night for the JUCO QB. however, texas defense did struggle with the wyoming offense, who run the spread like ole miss. difference is wyoming had 8 returning starters on offense...new system for ole miss.
Exactly. They have way more information, computer models, guys crunching numbers at their disposal than the average better to go along with years and years of data about what lines people buy into and where they can exploit weaknesses in the betting public.