84% of the money is on aTm... That's wild. http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart#.UE-RqrKPWSo
ULM +17 is a "game of the year" type play for me I've bet the side at the maximum at my two outs and included it in a couple of open parlays (other legs TBD at this point)
Nantucket and I are on much different ends of the spectrum for this game. Auburn is my favorite side of the weekend. Line is dirty dirty dirty. Think Auburn rolls by 24+
Teams are never as good or as bad as they were last week. Arky was looking ahead to bama. Plus, Its hard to carry that emotion to the next week, I'm looking for a "hangover effect" from ULM. MSU had that game circled all offseason, while AU was going on the road to play a "lesser opponent" after a disappointing loss in a game they were preparing for all offseason. AU now has its back against the wall, and this is a must win game. Way too many situational factors going against ULM to make a "game of the year" type bet IMO
I'm just not convinced Auburn can score 35 and keep the other team from scoring 17. If I had to take a side in this game (which i won't because my fandom clouds my judgment), I would take ULM +17.
rockportraider a few of my thoughts are on page 1 of the thread if you are interested The textbook handicapping "situationals" are what make this play possible. I am aware of all of the traditional spots that might apply to this game, and I believe that's the only reason that a line like 17 is out there. ULM is not going to have a letdown after beating Arkansas, they are going to build off of it. This isn't Appalachian State we are talking about. The win over Arkansas didn't make their season. These kids now have the opportunity to beat 2 SEC teams in consecutive weeks. Not a hard motivational sell there. Let's not kid ourselves, Arkansas is a significantly better team than Auburn with or without Tyler Wilson. And to suggest that Auburn was overlooking MSU in a conference opener is a little bit silly. As I mentioned on page 1, ULM didn't need some Herculean effort to upset Arkansas, they just stayed within themselves and played solid football. The short passing game is going to put serious pressure on the fundamentals of Auburn defense... a matchup I love. Too many distractions and too much pressure for Auburn here. Can you imagine what things will be like if they drop the game on Saturday? Wow. At the end of the day, reference the comment by FadeMe above. And I believe he is an Auburn fan. Full disclaimer, I am an Alabama fan, but I am totally unbiased when looking at Auburn ATS (I was on Auburn in week 1 against Clemson medium and very heavy on MSU last week).
Wishing you good health on this one. Absolutely love having an intelligent debate on the game though, cheers.
For sure brother. It's nice to find a mainboard thread/board where people aren't trolling and we can legitimately talk about games. Makes me a stronger better seeing other perspectives.
I'll preface it by saying that if you gave me a free bet on the game I'd take ULM. I do think that our defense is maybe as good as arkansas. rewatched the 1st half of the MSU game and our D didn't look that bad. And we got put into some terrible situations by Frazier. It really isn't a shocker that MSU made adjustments at half and we did not, it hasn't happened in 3 years. If their OL is weaker than avg we should be able to fuck up that QB... until they start throwing 5 yard routes. I do think we could force a couple turnovers in this game. I do not have any faith in our offense to put up points. we suck in the redzone and FGs aren't gonna cover a 17 point spread. I could see AU covering with some big plays and lucky turnovers. But that's the only possible way to cover. Luck. Can't factor that in and sometimes Vegas rapes the public on some BS luck
I am a huge Auburn Fan. The two match ups I look at in the Auburn/ULM game are Auburn's O vs ULM's D and ULM's O vs Auburn's D. The first matchup is a toss up because I have no idea what product Auburn brings to the field. I doubt we pass against them as well as Arkansas did, and Arky struggled to establish a running game. Whether that's a lack of a running game by Arky or good D by ULM, I don't know. Thus, that matchup is an unknown.. The second matchup is a huge plus for ULM. We're terrible at stopping the short-intermediate passing game. We've proven that over the 4 years Chizik has been here. We've averaged giving up more than 27 ppg since the arrival of the Chiz.
Stolen from random thoughts thread Anyone who has placed a bet has made a wager so outrageously bad that they've wanted to take it back. You don't have to admit it, that's cool. But we know. Well, the next time that massive favorite you put in your exacta pulls up lame down the stretch or your set of jacks gets beat by a gut shot straight draw on the river -- or your favorite team blows a 21-point lead against a FBS school that has never played in a bowl game -- maybe there's hope. I've never heard of a bookie having a heart, but I guess it happens. SportsBettingOnline.ag sent out a press release saying it was refunding all bets made on Arkansas, which was a 30-point favorite andlost to Louisiana-Monroe. The charitable sportsbook explains: "When a football team rallies from a 21-point deficit to win by three points in overtime, online sports bettors have good reason to be angry," said Dave Johnson, head oddsmaker for SportsBettingOnline.ag. "But when that team is a 30-point favorite and ranked eighth in the country, sports bettors have good reason to feel sick to their stomachs. And we don't blame them. The loss was unbelievable, and to profit from it really doesn't sit well with us. That's why we're refunding every single player who dropped money on Arkansas to win. It's the right thing to do and we'd be shocked if other online sports books don't follow our lead."I'm actually pretty sure, instead of following SportsBettingOnline.ag's lead, most reputable books would laugh hysterically if you ask for a similar refund on your Razorbacks ticket, especially since that site is not exactly a well-known industry leader or anything. And this isn't the first time the site has made a publicity-seeking refund -- it did so for the controversial Manny Pacquiao-Timothy Bradley fight, and gave another bad bet refund when Adam Scott blew a four-stroke lead at the British Open. This story is more to point out that, if you bet on Arkansas last Saturday, you made a bet so bad that at least one shop took pity and refunded the losses. We don't recommend asking your local bookie if he'll honor that refund too. - - - "Like" Dr. Saturday on Facebook for football conversations and stuff you won't see on the blog. And follow Dr. Saturday at its new home on Twitter: @YahooDrSaturday
Maybe they don't want to payout anyone who bet on ULM. Wish I had gotten real drunk and put a $100 on ULM to win straight up.
I'm an AU fan, but I think most would describe me as a pessimist (I prefer realist) when it comes to AU football. For example I liked both CU and MSU. I don't necessarily dislike the play based on what I have seen out of each team so far, I just wouldn't make it a huge play for the reasons I mentioned. I would never bet against any team with its back up against the wall. I wish I could say GL, but as an AU fan unfortunately I can not.
The Texas/Ole Miss line has now dropped 1.5 points at Pinnacle (one of the sharpest books) since opening. It's dropped from from 11 to 9.5 across the key number of 10. Public is still heavily on Texas. This tells me Ole Miss is the right side
what's up with the Ohio line at -6.5 at Marshall. Marshall is dog shit and Ohio is a decent squad. tarp?
Maybe I just don't see it. If Texas can't beat Ole Miss by 2 touchdowns this year then Texas just isn't very good. Call me a homer and what not but if I did bet on my home team, this would be the game I did it.
As bad as Ole Miss looks, I think they can run the ball and stop the run. Texas DL is more capable than any other in the big 12, but will it be enough? On offense, I don't think UT can exploit Ole Miss through the air. I'm going to leave this one alone, but would bet Ole Miss if forced to bet (only because I'm jealous of Texas).
In addition to OkState -22, I'm looking at the following lines. I won't bet this many games, but I'm leaning: Pitt +12 UVA +11x Ark +20x Kan +23 Rice +21 Marshall +7x UF +3 ND +6
Not exactly college football, but I love stuff like this. Check it out if you are bored. Millman's podcasts are always excellent. This one with bookmaker Bob Scucci who talks about how they opened the Packers game this week at -5, it moved to -6, and how they know what the public is going to bet and will adjust to the public action and move the line as high as possible before the sharps come back and hit the Bears. http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8370763
Under or nothing for me tonight in college. Prob not even gonna watch the game so no need for an action play. don't think there's an obvious good play on this one. need to be passing on these games more often than not instead of nickel and diming my way to negative numbers before saturday Starting to like GT this week. Don't know why that line is so high. Also like TCU. everyone that watched their game said they looked really sharp on both sides of the ball and Kansas is D2 status
I don't disagree with you on this, but I believe they(TCU) played Morgan St week one. Can't take much away from that.
Tis true. They played Grambling state, which also means they have spent an extra week preparing for their first B12 game this week. But anytime you hold a team to 70 total yards offense, D2 or not... you defense is good
I'll probably take more, but I am liking the favorites this week... Texas A&M -12.5 over SMU Louisville -3 over UNC Penn State -6.5 over Navy NW -3.5 (buy half) over Boston College****favorite Texas -10 over Ole Miss
TMB betting rule 2.03b - stay the fuck away from Penn State this year it is known Like NW and Louis. That texas line just fucking stinks with the RLM. Gonna just hope they win SU for my 10pt tease