Are people losing their asses and we get an annual early season slowdown in on the gambling board? I hate to bet Auburn again, but -2.5 at home against Miss St? Boise Friday Night winnner (@ UVA -2.5), as usual. Might be my favorite bet on the board. Texas Tech is a let down spot (and sandwich spot with Baylor next week) at home v TCU. Tech was impressive against Arky, who was in a horrible spot themselves with a lookahead to A&M. That game was clearly important to Kliff, based on his postgame comments alone. TCU has a lot of injuries on defense, but does defense really matter if the Tech offense comes out flat? TCU scored 82 points on Tech last year. I think TCU wins by 17. Took Vandy at +26.5. Got on Ohio St -28 early. I think it is up to 31.5.
I can't break the .500 mark. Been .500 for the last 3 weeks in my pick 10 pool. Some CFB I like early.... Miss State +2.5 at Auburn Boise State -2 at UVA TCU -7 at TT Texas State at HOU -16.5 Northern Illinois +4 at BC BYU at Mich -5 Navy -6.5 at UCONN UMASS +28 at ND Rice +34.5 at Baylor Army at East Mich -2.5 Cincy +10 at Memphis (depending on if Kiel plays) UCLA -4 at Arizona Some NFL I liked early.. OAK +3.5 at CLE SF at ARZ -6.5 Cincy +2.5 at BAL BUF +3 at Miami
Take Miss State Team Total OVER if it is 24 or less. We haven't held a mobile QB to under 3 TDs since... ever. Especially with Lawson being done we are not good in the front 7. No opinion on that -3 though I am done betting on AU this year.
Go listen to behind the bets itunes podcast. They do the podcast on Wednesday. Good stuff and can be funny.
With Sean White as the new QB there is no way, IMO, to get a read on this game. He could be good, serviceable, or as bad as JJ. Personally I am laying off, but if you want to just bet off the past 3 weeks take Mississippi State. I agree with what TLAU said above. if you can get the MSU TT below 24 or below take it.
ESPN Chalk Fallica and Stanford Steve Best Bets Spoiler 2015 season record: Fallica: 14-4 ATS (last week: 5-2) Coughlin: 7-7-1 ATS (last week: 1-4) 2014 season record: Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent) Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent) Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7.5) vs. TCU Horned Frogs Total: 80.5 Fallica: Hard to imagine the last meeting in Lubbock was a 20-10 win for the Red Raiders in 2013. Have to think there is a huge measure of payback on the minds of Tech after allowing 82 last season to the Horned Frogs. TCU hasn't looked like the team it was a season ago, though. It was in a five-point game with SMU last week until TCU scored two touchdowns in the final 6 minutes, 32 seconds (one with 56 seconds remaining) to make that 56-37 final very deceiving. TCU is beat up on defense and SMU was able to exploit those issues last week. Given that Tech is just 2-12 in its last fourteen Big 12 games, its hard to call for the outright win, but the confidence created by last week's win coupled with all the injuries on the TCU defense has me with slight lean towards the home dog. ATS pick: TCU 41, Texas Tech 35 Coughlin: So last season this game ended 82-27... so what the hell do you do now? Texas Tech could not come in with more buzz after their upset win at Arkansas and their head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, offering words to Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema. And it feels like no one has paid attention to TCU since they opened the season at Minnesota with an unimpressive win over the Gophers. The last time Texas Tech beat a top-5 ranked team was Oct. 13, 2012, when the Red Raiders defeated No. 4 West Virginia 49-14 at AT&T Stadium. Take the over. ATS pick: TCU 48, Texas Tech 40 (over the total) Utah Utes (+14) at Oregon Ducks Fallica: I continue to get bad vibes from the Oregon defense. Giving up 31 points at Michigan State is one thing, but giving up 318 passing yards and 28 points to Georgia State concerns me, even if the game was out of hand. Utah won both games in which it was a double-digit dog last season, at Stanford and UCLA. In the end, too much Royce Freeman and company. But Gionni Paul and a physical Utah defense will make them earn it. ATS pick: Oregon 30, Utah 24 Coughlin: After Sunday, so many people started tweeting away about their top 4 teams in college football, and it seemed that Michigan State was the majority No. 1. I don't understand these theories. Was it because they beat an Oregon team that, I'll admit, I still don't have a clue about? Is that really the best out-of-conference or even best win in college football through 3 weeks? I don't think it's even close to being the best, especially because it was at home. We don't know which QB will start or even play for either team. We do know Utah will rely on durable running back Devontae Booker, so I see Utah being able to control the game, but they will have to survive the wild second half that always seems to result when Oregon trails at the half. ATS pick: Oregon 31, Utah 23 Lousiana Monroe Warhawks (+38) at Alabama Crimson Tide Fallica: This is one of two "stale sandwich" games that caught my eye this week. Hard to imagine much energy at Bryant-Denny this weekend -- in either the team or the crowd. After seeing firsthand the mood in Tuscaloosa last week after the loss to Ole Miss, I think the Tide sleepwalks through this one and puts all the emotion and energy toward a season-defining game at Georgia next week. The last seven times the Tide has been favored by 35 points or more, it covered only once. ATS pick: Alabama 38, UL Monroe 14 Massachusetts Minutemen (+29) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish Fallica: This is the other "stale sandwich" game on the docket this week. Notre Dame is stuck between an emotional win as a home underdog last week vs. Georgia Tech and a huge road test at Clemson next week. UMass nearly knocked off Temple last week, and the goal for the Irish this week will be to avoid another injury. Look for Minutemen QB Blake Frohnapfel to hook up with Tajae Sharpe a couple of times and keep this one respectable. ATS pick: Notre Dame 38, Massachusetts 17 Kent State Golden Flashes (+9) vs Marshall Thundering Herd Fallica: The Golden Flashes nearly pulled off the stunner as a 24-point underdog last week at Minnesota, and if the defense shows up like that again this week, they will pull off the upset. Injuries at the QB position could affect the Marshall offense, which has already struggled once on the road vs. a MAC team this season (21-10 loss at Ohio). ATS pick: Marshall 24, Kent State 17 Florida Intl Golden Panthers (+14.5) at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Fallica: The Golden Panthers have improved greatly in Ron Turner's third season, beating in-state rival UCF and playing Indiana tough in Bloomington. The Bulldogs lost a heartbreaker at K-State last week, and while Jeff Driskel and Kenneth Dixon should put up numbers for Tech, look for an improved FIU offense to score its fair share of points too. ATS pick: Louisiana Tech 34, Florida International 24 USC Trojans (-5.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils[/paste:font] Fallica: We'll put our faith in the numbers here. The Football Power Index -- which had Ole Miss as the favorite last week at Alabama -- has USC roughly 12 points better than the Sun Devils here. So it seems like the power ratings have identified a good bit of value. It's also a huge game for USC, which could be essentially eliminated from the Pac-12 South race two games in. Expect an inspired effort from USC as it looks to put to rest all the questions arising from last week's loss to Stanford. ATS pick: USC 31, Arizona State 21 Boise State Broncos at Virginia Cavaliers (+3.5) Coughlin: Love home dogs in Saturday night games on campus, and I love home dogs on Friday nights even better. We saw the Cavs open the season in the Rose Bowl and get rolled by the Bruins and freshman QB Josh Rosen. A week later, the Fighting Irish came to town and took the lead in the last minute and left Charlottesville with a close win. So here comes Virginia, hosting only their third home game on a Friday night in school history, and Boise State lost their QB, Ryan Finley, last week to a broken ankle. Plus, we love UVA alum Chris Long. ATS pick: Virgina 13, Boise State 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers (-2) Coughlin: I know this looks like a horrible spot to take the War Eagle, but if they don't rally the troops this week at home in a Saturday night game, I'm not sure they will the rest of the season. Gus Malzahn has pressed the panic button and announced Tuesday he will bench QB Jeremy Johnson and go with former Elite 11 MVP, and redshirt freshman Sean White to catch all those shotgun snaps. If Malzahn doesn't have his team's attention this week and the players aren't focused on getting the taste of Leonard Fournette running them over in Baton Rouge out of their mouth, it says a lot about the future of the their season. Very rarely do you get a team with their back against the wall this early in the season. I'll take a chance with that team, who is at home and under the lights on The Plains. ATS pick: Auburn 31, Miss. State 24 Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators (-2) Coughlin: In the same way I need to turn around my picks, Tennessee needs to turn around their outcomes when it comes to the third Saturday in September. One thing Florida was still able to do under the trying years of Will Muschamp was beat the team from Knoxville. Even though the Vols blew the game to Oklahoma, they looked like they belonged and felt comfortable in a big-game atmosphere. They were more impressive in that situation than Florida looked in a win at Kentucky. No one needs a win in a big spot more than Butch Jones and his squad. I think they have enough offensive talent to pull off the upset in The Swamp. ATS pick: Tennesse 24, Florida 21
Phil Steele Week 4 Spoiler y 10 best Week 4 college football ATS bets 3h - COLLEGE FOOTBALL LSU TIGERS +1 more Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer 7Shares Email Print Comment Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers(-1.5)[/paste:font] This selection is based on backing a team that is in desperation mode. Ole Miss the new No. 1 in Vegas Ranks ESPN Chalk's Evan Abrams provides the CFB Vegas Rankings after Week 3, an aggregate power rating from Vegas handicappers. Ole Miss takes over the top spot after a win at Alabama. Fallica/Coughlin: Best Week 4 CFB bets ESPN Chalk's Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin give their best ATS college football bets for Week 4, including Mississippi State vs. Auburn. I picked Auburn lower than everyone else this year (third) in the SEC West, but the Tigers were the media's pick to win the SEC overall. They have looked worse than even I expected. Now they are at home and have benched QB Jeremy Johnson, who was one of the top five preseason favorites to win the Heisman. Mississippi State has looked strong; statistically, the Bulldogs have outgained their foes by 158 yards per game while Auburn is minus-113 yards per game. This has to be a circle-the-wagons game for Gus Malzahn, Will Muschamp & Co., and they are playing at home with a legitimate revenge factor in a must-win game. ATS pick: Auburn Score: Auburn 31, Mississippi State 24 No. 25 Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats (-3) Missouri has struggled to get past Arkansas State and Connecticut as a large favorite this season. QB Maty Mauk has been inconsistent, completing just 53 percent of his passes. Kentucky has already knocked off South Carolina, almost beat Florida, and will have a large crowd behind it. With that said, I still like the Tigers here. They have started slow the last couple of years but have won the games they have needed to win. They actually have the nation's longest road win streak at 11. Kentucky QB Patrick Towles is completing just 52 percent of his passes, and the Wildcats have been outgained in every game. Their defense is yielding 380 YPG, while Missouri's defense has given up just 217 YPG. Missouri RB Russell Hansbrough should return this week (only seven carries in the first three games). I will take the two-time defending SEC East champions to win outright as a 'dog. ATS pick: Missouri Score: Missouri 20, Kentucky 17 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 22Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5) I am a little surprised this game is at night, as the Badgers usually save nighttime games for their toughest opponents. Hawaii is off to a 2-1 start this year, is optimistic about making a bowl, and is 2-0 ATS with covers versus Colorado and Ohio State. Hawaii QB Max Wittek, a transfer from USC, was my No. 8 QB out of high school. He has completed just 50 percent with five touchdowns and four interceptions. While Hawaii covered at Ohio State, the Rainbow Warriors were catching the Buckeyes off a Monday night game and thus playing on a very short week the following Saturday. Hawaii still lost 38-0, and versus FBS teams is averaging just 13 first downs and 233 yards per game. Wisconsin is holding its opponents to 133 yards below their season average. ATS pick: Wisconsin Score: Wisconsin 38, Hawaii 6 No. 19 USC Trojans (-5.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils I picked USC last week and the Trojans really disappointed me with that 41-31 home loss to Stanford. The good news is they have proved to be one of the best teams in the country after a loss the past two seasons, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, with their lone loss by a half-point. Arizona State has been underwhelming this year, getting blown out by Texas A&M and then struggling at home versus a couple of overmatched foes. Last week the Trojans were mauled by one of the best offensive lines in the country, but this week they take on a rebuilt offensive line. USC's defense has to be in an angry mood, as its offense is gaining 220 yards more than its opponents are allowing on average in their other games. USC blew an 11-point lead and lost on a Hail Mary last year against ASU. There will be no such letup if the Trojans are up big this year. ATS pick: USC Score: USC 34, Arizona State 24 No. 8 LSU Tigers (-24.5) at Syracuse Orange Normally, this would be a letdown spot for LSU, as they just won back-to-back revenge games versus Mississippi State and Auburn. The Tigers have only Eastern Michigan on deck, and after having their opener cancelled there are a lot of talented second- and third-stringers who will be excited for playing time in the second half. Syracuse has one of the best statistical rush defenses in the country, but the Orange are allowing 469 yards per game to FBS foes. Versus Wake Forest and Central Michigan, they have allowed 402 yards per game through the air and 70 percent completions. That makes this the perfect game for Brandon Harris to work on his passing skills to prepare for future big SEC games. Syracuse lost starting QB Terrel Hunt in Week 1. Last week, solid replacement Eric Dungeywas injured in the second quarter. Syracuse had 285 yards at the half and just 41 yards in the second half, but won in OT without him. The Orange used their third- and fourth-string QBs during that time, and those guys must now face LSU's defense. I don't see that going well. ATS pick: LSU Score: LSU 38, Syracuse 6 No. 9 UCLA Bruins (-3.5) at No. 16 Arizona Wildcats College GameDay will be on hand, so the home crowd will be at its best. Veteran Arizona QB Anu Solomon is completing 68 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. UCLA true freshman QB Josh Rosen had a huge first game but has thrown four interceptions the last two games and is hitting under 50 percent of his passes in those. I still like the Bruins here. Arizona has taken on three creampuffs, and its defense is allowing opponents to gain 94 yards per game more than what they are averaging in all their other games. UCLA has my No. 11-rated defense while Arizona comes in at No. 79. UCLA is the more complete team and grabs the road win. ATS pick: UCLA Score: UCLA 35, Arizona 27 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at No. 12Alabama Crimson Tide (-38) Alabama is coming off a home loss versus a team that lost to Georgia 51-14 this year, and that game was shortened by 10 minutes. Believe it or not, Alabama has failed to cover its last four games off a straight-up loss. The Crimson Tide are also in a large sandwich situation here. They're coming off that titanic tussle versus Ole Miss, and they have a road game versus No. 7 Georgia on deck. ULM comes into this fresh off a bye and has played the big boys tough. Last year ULM went on the road and almost upset Texas A&M, losing 21-16. The Warhawks have a gambling, blitzing defense with eight starters back. ULM allowed LSU only 31 points last year and yielded just 322 yards per game versus three SEC foes. Coach Todd Berry thinks he has his best team yet, and QBGarrett Smith is completing 79 percent of his passes with a 5-1 ratio. ATS pick: Louisiana-Monroe Score: Alabama 37, ULM 10 Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels (-24.5) Ole Miss comes in averaging 64 points per game and just went to Alabama and hung 43 on the Tide. The Rebels now take on Vanderbilt, which is 0-2 versus FBS teams. Ole Miss went on the road and beat Vandy last year 41-3, with a 547-167 yardage edge. However, I actually like the underdog here. Ole Miss is coming off a large upset win on the road, has skyrocketed up the polls from No. 15 to No. 3, and is in a sandwich game with a trip to the Swamp to face Florida (3-0) next week. Vanderbilt actually has one of the nation's most improved defenses this year, holding their FBS foes to 208 yards below their season average. Georgia was not in a sandwich when it faced Vanderbilt in Week 2, and Vanderbilt was outgained only 422-400 and stayed within 17 points. Look for Vanderbilt to keep this closer than expected. ATS pick: Vanderbilt Score: Ole Miss 41, Vanderbilt 20 Massachusetts Minutemen at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-29) Sandwiches have been very tasty for the underdogs, and I am 3-0 in games involving the Irish this year. This week the Irish are coming off a big win over Georgia Tech; the defense did a masterful job of preparing and then stopping the option. Notre Dame was fueled by the fact it was a home underdog. Next week, the Fighting Irish have a huge road test at Clemson. Massachusetts' first road game of the season was a big loss to Colorado; last week, UMass should have beaten Temple. UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel is solid (393 yards versus a good Temple defense); he gives the Minutemen backdoor potential. Also, the way Notre Dame's starters have been dropping like flies, Brian Kelly might have them in bubble wrap in the second half. ATS pick: Massachusetts Score: Notre Dame 41, Massachusetts 19 Western Michigan Broncos at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-31.5) I picked Ohio State last week in my column and they let me down -- and almost lost the game outright to MAC member Northern Illinois. Now the Buckeyes take on another strong MAC team. There is pressure to get the offense going after gaining just 363 and 298 yards the last two weeks. Western Michigan is allowing opponents 81 yards more than their season average, so it should come this week. Ohio State's defense has been impenetrable, holding its three opponents to 277 yards below their season averages. While Western Michigan stayed close in a 37-24 loss to Michigan State earlier this season, it was a rare home game versus a Big Ten team. The Broncos were fired up and Michigan State led 34-10 in the third quarter, with Western Michigan's only score coming on a kick-return TD. Michigan State had a huge game on deck versus Oregon and started to look ahead. Ohio State has only Indiana on deck and won't be peeking ahead. ATS pick: Ohio State Score: Ohio State 48,Western Michigan 10 SPONSORED HEADLINES
Alrighty. 10 for the week in my pick pool. CFB So Miss +22.5 at Nebraska Boise State at UVA +2 Northern Illinois +4 at BC BYU at Mich -5 Navy -6.5 at UCONN UMASS +28 at ND ULM +38 at Alabama FIU +14.5 v La Tech NFL OAK +3.5 at CLE BUF +3 at Miami other ones I liked but couldn't do.... Arizona +4 at UCLA Nevada at Buffalo -2 Tenn -1 at UF USC at Arz State +5.5 Texas State at HOU -16.5 Rice +34.5 @ Baylor Army @ ECU -2.5 TCU -7 at TT Pit @ STL +1 Ind at Ten +3.5 Wash at NYG -3.5