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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FriendsofJtyler, Sep 30, 2012.
Lines popping up. Back on the grind boys:
first look and depending on the public vote but I like Lsu, south carolina, oregon
Texas is a 6 1/2 point favorite? Wait what?
Didn't see that one. I like Texas as well.
I liked us against Ole Miss. I sort of liked us against Okie Lite. I don't like this at all. The public is probably going to hammer West Va tho.
The public hammers like one road dog a week if that. Possible, but not likely.
If they do I'll roll with the horns.
Miss State +14.5 (No idea how they are a 2+ TD dog here)
Texas Tech +4.5
West Virginia +7
Hopefully I will cut this down. Somehow I always seem to make too many bets on Saturday.
I'll post this by itself.
How in the fucking blue hell is Mississippi State a 2+ TD underdog to Kentucky????
May be the most mind boggling line I've seen in a long time. What warrants them laying that many points, playing one good half against USCe?
I seriously thought it was a mistake on the website. I may well get burned, but there is no way Kentucky deserves that many points against even the worst of FBS. As soon as my book opens this game, I will have my first play of the week.
Miss St (!!!)
Seriously, wtf is going on with that Miss State line? Is the biggest trap ever?
Unless Kentucky is going to hire Petrino last night I don't understand that at all
That has to be a mistake
Love love love Penn State.
Don't understand it. A 4-0 ranked Miss State teams two touchdown underdogs against Kentucky? Wtf.
It has to be backwards. Game isn't available on 5dimes when I looked a few minutes ago.
I do as well. Team is getting better every single week, unranked team favored against ranked team.
There is no way this can be right
ND is laying a pretty damn big number for a team that has trouble scoring
Would look at Ga Tech except that I stay away from Clemson games from now on.
Think wrong team favored in [email protected] Tech .. Also, TCU and Iowa St are a lot closer in strength than this line but I haven't played any TCU games and don't plan to now.
I like it just hestitant because Oklahoma is coming off a bye.
Sooners are 15-4 under Stoops coming off a bye week.
I don't know if they've been this inconsistent on offense in that time .. Do you know how many of those 19 games were on the road? Just curious
This was before the Kansas State game this year. Evidently they have 2 byes this year. These are the scores but didn't find anything on where the games were.
Just looked it up .. Of the 18 games, 3 of them were on the road or neutral: Baylor 2011, Miami 2009, Texas 2006, and Iowa State 2003 .. of those 4 games, OU went 1-3. Basically they are 14-0 following a bye at home and 1-3 following a bye away from home.
before the season, i had this weekend circled as a game texas should win by 10+ and i was gonna hammertime.
at this point, our D has been so inconsistent that i am not sure what to think.
i'll probably roll with jtyler's logic...if public plays wvu (which is likely), it is hammertime on texas.
wvu's d is completely non-existent. texas at least has horses on D that will make at least some plays. texas gets wvu at home, and wvu is notoriously bad on road. wvu has zero running game to speak of.
i think i just talked myself into it. i'll wait for line to go down.
texas has now covered 3 weeks in a row. saved my ass this weekend after BC and ucf shat themselves.
texas tech will beat ou this weekend. ou doesn't play well in lubbock, and tech's d is for real this year.
also, tcu is favored by too much at 11 over iowa state.
line opened at 14...damn.
Games where the public is backing the road dog so far:
Cincy/Miami, Penn State/Northwestern, Uconn/Rutgers, UNC/Va Tech, Texas/WVU, TCU/Iowa State, Stanford/Arizona, ND/Miami, Ohio/Buffalo.
Not sure I've ever seen that many games with road dogs being backed by the public. I will likely pull my plays from this list above as the week goes on. Maybe the public is tired of backing home favorites with inflated lines that don't cover and are just blindly backing dogs now.
This feels like a weekend Vegas is going to bend the public over and I'm going to ride along with them.
Way too early to make calls on public backing. Mostly sharp action coming in on Sunday-Monday
Fair enough. But I don't think it's too big of a leap of faith to assume that a ranked Northwestern team as a dog, a WVU team ranked higher than Texas getting 7 points, and a Arizona team getting double digit points on the road against a Stanford team that just lost on national tv, will be public sides.
Damn on the year 22 of 30 wins on Saturdays thanks to everyone on here posting! Thanks again seriously!!
OU also has Texas on deck. Looking ahead potentially?
listen to my big 12 knowledge. texas tech will beat OU this weekend.
Line went from OU -3.5 to OU -5 today.
I wish I had the ability to pick and choose from everyone's picks and kill it like that! Congrats man!
Too hard to tell what's going on at this point imo. Opened at 4.5 at Pinny, went up to 5, down to 3.5 then back up to 5.
Probably sharps jousting for position and some buy back on both sides.
USC 13 1/2 favorite at Utah. No way Utah keeps it close in my opinion
I will probably be playing Tech ML in this one. I feel if each team plays up to their potential, Tech wins.
Maybe this is in a past week thread, but it needs to be stated again: Vegas is dumb when it comes to PSU. NW is a team that PSU always matches up well against. I will be putting my past 4 week's PSU winnings toward this game.
Let me get this straight, youre saying Tech has more talent than OU?
This should be an interesting matchup. N'western's strength is its offense; PSU's is its defense. I lean towards NW because they are a pretty good team and haven't beaten PSU since '04.
I liken this game to NW's game with Vandy, although PSU might have a better offense than Vandy.
OU is playing three back ups on the OL. OU is averaging 22 points in their last 5 games against FBS teams. Jones has played 13 road games in his career against BCS teams and thrown 23 pics. He is very very average. OU hasn't won in Lubbock since 2003.
OU may roll tech, but I think if both teams play well, Tech wins. That is why they play the games and why it is called gambling.
Look, I'm an OU fan. I'll admit that. I'll also admit that we have some serious issues, and also suck pretty bad. But I wouldn't trade OUs players for TTechs. I'm just wondering if you actually think that Tech wins if OU and Tech both play to their "potential". I ask b/c I want to know if I can take anything you say seriously from here on out.
fair enough. From a gambling side, there is value in Tech.
I would say OU and Tech's "potential" is about the same right now.
OU is not remotely close to where they have been on offense in recent years. Lack of OL is a killer.
Tech has a better OL, and a just as capable QB.
I would say OU and Tech defense are close to same. Tech has better front 4, OU better secondary.
Plus the game is in Lubbock, and OU sucks in Lubbock for the most part.
There was value with tech at 8+. Very true. And Landry will be your best player.
Now looking at NCSU, CAL, and Ole Miss
Like Utah State +7 a lot.
Riley Nelson starting with a bad back, their starting RB Alisa is out.
Utah State blew a 14-3 lead at Wisconsin or would be 5-0. BYU offense still has serious issues which are being masked by a win against Hawaii (119th ranked defense in the country).