Week 6 reverse line movements (Updated)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Phi Mu's Love Boones Farm, Oct 2, 2009.

  1. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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    Games with possible reverse line movements have been money so far. Here are a few to keep an eye out on. I am posting the public play. % from sportsinsights lines from pinnacle

    Public play Open Mon Wed Fri Current

    Houston -3 -2.5/64% +2.5/66% +2.4/62% +2.5/56%
    Oregon -6.5 -6.5/78% -3.5/77% -3.5/66% -3.5/64%
    UGA pickem pickem/90% +2/89% +1.5/85% +1.5/79%
    Bama -6.5 -7/78% -4.5/81% -4.5/76% -4.5/76%
    Minnesota -4 -3.5/70% -3.5/76% -3/72% -3/74%
    OK st. Line came out on thursday at -5.5 -4.5/74% -4.5/74%
    South Carolina -11.5 -11/48% -10/64% -9.5/76% -9.5/76%
    Navy -13 -12.5/83% -11.5/70% -11/70% -10.5/67%

    Hope this isn't too hard to read. Open is what it opened at on pinnacle. Left the night games off because the line and bets will probably change alot by kickoff, and none of the bigger games fit anyway.
     
  2. MagGator

    MagGator New Member

    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    So what do you take? I dont follow stuff like this
     
  3. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    It basically means that the public is still betting on one side, but the line drops the opposite way which usually means a bunch of sharps (big time and known winners) are going against the public.

    Example is BYU (69%) -24 to -23.5. The public was big on BYU which means the line should have moved to -24.5 not to -23.5.
     
  4. MagGator

    MagGator New Member

    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    and OU not from -7 to -8?
     
  5. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    No, the public is big on OU, so the line is moving up, like it should. Reverse line would be if everyone was betting OU -7, and you look up and the line had gone down to -6, meaning the books wanted even more money on OU.
     
  6. fgrauzer

    fgrauzer New Member
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    5-3 with if you bet RLM out of those you listed.
     
  7. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    This needs to be a weekly thread. Pretty nifty...
     
  8. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    jordars... you do this every week? if so what are the odds you will post it?
     
  9. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    I will update the thread for this week, probably on Friday to see which way the public and line are moving.

    Some big line movements alreay (more than 1.5)

    Houston 68% -2.5 to +2.5
    Stanford 62% -2.5 to +1.5
    Oreagon 74% -6 to -3.5
    UGA 85% -1 to +2

    Today has been the first I looked so I don't know about injuries. Don't know what to make of UGA no way I would put money on this UT team. Remember I am posting the public favorites so fade these teams.
     
  10. New user

    New user Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 5 reverse line movements

    Bama from -6.5 to -5 with I think about 80% on Bama
     
  11. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    bump
     
  12. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    That Bama line is so ugly.
     
  13. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    jordars... thanks man, you are alright :beerchug:

    i have always paid attention to this, but didn't realize what i was doing... my brain is too simple minded i guess. i like to look at this with ATS performance and if both items line up it is a pretty good bet. wish i kept up with it to see the actual numbers were LY and so far TY.
     
  14. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    Prints posted this on the RB on Tuesday. He obviously knows alot more about this than me.

    I wish I could give you 100% accurate numbers on this...but I have followed (3 yrs of tracking it)...

    I'll go in descending order of percentage:

    90/10 or above with 1 point or greater toward the 10: 77%
    90/10 or above with .5 to 1 point toward the 10: 77%

    (this is so rare, it's almost pointless)

    80/20 to 89/11 with 2 points or greater toward the 11-20: 69%
    80/20 to 89/11 with 1 to 2 points toward the 11-20: 67%
    80/20 to 89/11 with .5 to 1 point toward the 11-20: 62%

    70/30 to 79/21 with 2 points or greater toward the 21-30: 66%
    70/30 to 79/11 with 1 to 2 points toward the 21-30: 58%
    70/30 to 79/11 with .5 to 1 point toward the 21-30: 57%

    60/40 to 69/31 with 2 points or greater toward the 31-40: 57%
    60/40 to 69/31 with 1 to 2 points toward the 31-40: 55%
    60/40 to 69/31 with .5 to 1 point toward the 31-40: 52%

    Anything below that isn't even worth mentioning...
     
  15. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    I honestly think RLM is where everyone should start....

    I wish I had 10 year numbers...and I also wish I had tracked EVERY single game rather than like a handful a week...but if you have very little else to go on....start with the premise "Vegas knows more than me" and work from there.
     
  16. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    Prints I know you said you don't look at games below 60 or 65%, but would a game with with close to a 50/50 split but with large line movement (2.5+ points) raise any flags for you? The question is purely hypothetical.
     
  17. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    I mean that much movement would always raise an eyebrow....I just wouldn't play it...
     
  18. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    i wish i would have... but when i was typing my post i was going to guess that the over all average for 60/40 and above would be 60%. that would have been pretty close.

    there is a lot more emphasis on the 70/30 > one point jumps than i would have guessed. makes you want to look hard at the houston/miss st, stanford/oregon st, oregon/ucla and uga/ut games and make a strong play.

    i cannot imagine that ole miss has a chance to stay w/in 2 scores of bama (mainly b/c of saban's defensive prowess and nutts lack of) but this indicates a high hit % playing the rebels. IDK....

    thanks again for the information.
     
  19. Aeroforz1

    Aeroforz1 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    In the future it might be easier to start a new RLM thread for every week rather than keep editing this one. Eliminates some confusion.
     
  20. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    this was the best piece of advise anyone ever gave me.
     
  21. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    yeah...the overall numbers are probably a little lower, just to be safe I'd reduce each percent by 5%, just for standard deviation and the lack of a 100% complete sample size...
     
  22. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    i like the same thread rather than a new one each week b/c you can look back and track it, and just post the current week... IMO. its jordars deal, so i am in for whatever.
     
  23. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    sportsinsights.com has 17,000+ bets on bama/miss game, still with 76% of them being on bama... with that number of bets (compared to the # of bets on the rest of the games) and using the 3 year figures give ole miss 66% chance of winning. blows my mind, my instinct says 20%.
     
  24. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    it's probably 60-61%.....
     
  25. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    I still think Vegas has that game wrong. Sure hope so lol.
     
  26. gotyacovered

    gotyacovered New Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    why? b/c other books don't have the same numbers?
     
  27. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    Because my numbers are only about 80% inclusive...there's 20% of unknown data just from the past 3 years....plus the last decade plus...66% is a lot...I'm just saying I wouldn't bet on Ole Miss assuming that percentage.....I would also wait until tomorrow to bet it as I'm still not convinced that it isn't reverse reverse line movement...
     
  28. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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    Re: Week 6 reverse line movements

    Hope so.
     
  29. Phi Mus Love Boones Farm

    Phi Mus Love Boones Farm Well-Known Member
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