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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Juan, Oct 10, 2016.
Haven't done much looking but I like BYU -7 against Mississippi State this Friday at first glance.
I also like EMAW getting +10 @ OU.
The only 2 that I liked at first glance were:
Bama wasn't posted yet but if they open under 14 I'll take it.
Purdue is a 13 pt dog to Iowa.
people that like money should be interested in that.
Tennessee not gonna be able to do that fall behind and then dominate a prevent defense against yall. Probably gonna be an ugly game something like 31-9
Just got Bama at -13 so I'm pleased.
Love Bama. Jumped on it as well.
On Bama too. My book had them at -11. Bought a whole point to -10
I am an idiot and have no idea. Brutal week for me last week.
So you have them at like -10 -130?
It was actually a point and a half. Typo. -142. Several years of betting and I have never bought a point and half before.
No reason too IMO.
that's a lot of vig man--fuck it; doesn't matter if you win though.
i have never bought a full pt. well, i am sure i have in the NFL. but never college.
if you aren't confident enough in your bet that you feel like you need to buy a point, maybe don't bet it?
gallant is right though. doesn't matter if you win. good luck.
Agreed. I do not think I will need it but the bet is for $100. I can stomach losing -$143 if TN covers. Especially getting a crucial number like -10.
my personal take on the bama/tenn game.
i know nothing about the current tenn injury situation. seemed bad during the aggie game.
you thought their game against FLA was important to the team and fans? this is like 15 superbowls wrapped into one for them.
i understand taking bama at 10. some value there, only because you knew that number would skyrocket and you can bet the other side for a possible middle.
once the number gets past 14, i may jump in on tenn. i cannot imagine a team like tenn, who felt that pressure against FLA and overcame, will fold like that did in the FLA first half. with all they have been through this year, i think tenn covers this game.
I am confident at 14 or less but getting the number at 10 I am pretty sure. Buying up or down over a 1/2 point has done more good for me than hurt me in the past. Not a regular thing and I usually agree with your sentiment but there are always exceptions.
also, bama - ark was a pretty physical game. you saw the hangover after the aggie-ark game when the swags went to USC and squeaked out a win. bama might be a little banged up this weekend.
Bama's depth helps in this area.
Reuben Foster suffered a concussion although I believe it was mild. That will be something to watch during the week.
Tennessee's injury situation is not ideal at all. They have lost a ton on D and Hurd is not 100%. Their OL is also just bad in general. I get that this is a rivalry game but that works both ways. Especially when one side is more talented, better coached, has way less injuries , and more quality depth. Plus the amount of TO luck Tennessee has had is simply not going to continue.
The reason I got on Bama when I did was because like you said I knew the line would skyrocket. I would have loved to bet more but with that type of vig I wasn't going to up my unit bet. There is a solid chance I will take them again at -13. A middle is something to think about however I really believe Bama is going to dominate this game on all levels. I wanted this line at -10 just in case Bama is not playing at 100% and/or the infamous UT horseshoe shows up for this game.
This game has only been decided by less than 14 twice in the past 9 years. The only strength I see of this UT team is their DL. However I feel that Bama being versatile and Hurts mobility will eliminate that matchup. I am not saying Bama's OL bad, because they aren't at all, albeit their center has some moments.
Not nearly as hungover as Arkansas. Or Tennessee, look at the games they have played. Side note, Austin Allen played really well considering he was pressured almost 70% of his dropbacks. Arkansas' OL is bad. I think TN's OL is comparable to that of Arkansas.
"Following Saturday’s game in Fayetteville, Pro Football Focus broke down the quarterback play for each team, and one particular metric stood out above all others:
What Alabama did to Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen on Saturday night really can’t be overstated. Allen dropped back to pass 61 times, and was under pressure on 42 of those plays. That’s 68.9 percent of his dropbacks. To put that into context, Allen was pressured on 37.8 percent of his dropbacks through the first five weeks of the season — one of the highest rates in the nation. Combined, the Alabama defense finished the game with 46 total pressures, including seven sacks and nine quarterback hits. Seven different players registered at least four pressures, including backup edge defender Terrell Hall, who managed to register a sack and four hurries, despite rushing the passer just eight times. One of the most dominant team performances you’ll ever see from a pass-rushing standpoint, they made life miserable for the Arkansas quarterback."
I mentioned it earlier but Tennessee has to be fatigued emotionally and physically. This will be their 4th CBS game the last 2 of which have been very emotional and hard fought. They have also not had a BYE during their rough stretch of games. I do not really see how UT makes this an overly competitive game. Obviously anything can happen and their is the X factor of luck they seem to have.
Depending on what the number is, if you feel priced out something else to consider is the Bama TT. They have gone over 33.5 in every game this season. I will be eyeing that as well on Saturday. BOL
I am terrible so don't follow.. but early leans
Week 7 CFB
West Kent +2.5 (Spread and ML) at Middle Tenn
Miss St at BYU -7.5
Minn at Maryland -6.5
Neb at Ind +3.5 (Spread and ML)
Alabama -13 at Tenn
Ga St at Troy -16.5
UTSA -3.5 at Rice
Missouri +13.5 at UF
all you clowns love bama. double digit road favorite
Bama has that against them for sure. Y'all just played them so as a fan what were your thoughts?
What site do you guys use?
we lost by 19, but it felt like we lost by 40.
I'm on Bovada and a local guy.
Bovada is slow with lines and usually juice the shit out of you.
Heard 5dimes is also good.
Not a whole lot I am attracted to this weekend.
Georgia Tech -10.5 against Georgia Southern is solid. Tech isn't taking this game lightly and I can see this getting out of hand. Paul Johnson knows this is a must-win for him. Georgia Southern is overrated after its success in recent years. I think Tech wins this one easily.
Me and my friend from Southern like Tech to cover as well
Gimme App St -6 1H tonight.
Took Appalachian State -10 for tonight.
I took app state -6.5 in the first half. Also have them -4 and over 42 in a teaser.
Used 5Dimes years ago when I was active. Looking to get back into it. Currently debating what site to go with.
I took NDXOS advice and went with Bovada. I'll start playing soon, but it looks very user friendly so far.
Yea it is certainly a square book, but its just the one I use for fun.
Have a local guy for bigger stuff.
Haven't opened this thread in a while. I was hoping to see a lot of Tennessee love.
I've got Bama -13
I think I'm going to go hard in Bama 1st half. Like that more than the game spread. With Tennessee first half struggles
Final CFB card as of Fri afternoon.
Miss St at BYU -7.5
Memphis at Tulane +11.5
WKU +2.5 at Middle Ten
UTSA -3.5 at Rice
Neb at IND +3.5
Ga St at Troy -16.5
Missou +13.5 at UF
VT at Cuse +19.5
Iowa St +13.5 at Texas
Bowling Green +30.5 at Toledo
Cent Mich at NIU +2.5
Going big Memphis-Tulane U52.5
If anyone is interested here is a pro BYU breakdown of the BYU-Mississippi State game tonight. A friend of mine emailed it over and thought I would share.
This is an interesting Friday night matchup as the Mississippi State Bulldogs make a rare trip to Provo, Utah to take on the BYU Cougars. Normally we would be inclined to lean with the underdog in a matchup such as this, especially considering the fact that both of these teams are coming off matchups of varying motivation. The Cougars themselves are coming off a big road win over Big 10 powerhouse Michigan State, while the Bulldogs are coming off an extremely poor home performance where they were run over by the Auburn Tigers. While we would normally expect a letdown for BYU and an improved performance by Mississippi State, we believe the opposite will happen as this is an extremely difficult matchup for the Bulldogs.
While the Bulldogs are an SEC team and sport SEC talent, there is a reason why they don't often travel out of the southeast. This will be the latest start of any game for the Bulldogs and that could certainly play a role in their preparation in playing later at night than they are used to. This game is also being played in altitude, a place where a majority of these players are not used to playing in. If you have never played in altitude, it can be an absolute draining experience, especially after a full 60 minutes of play. The Cougars will certainly have the advantage not only because they are at home, but because these players are used to the thin mountain air and with a pounding ground attack led by Jamaal Williams, we expect the BYU ground game to wear out the Bulldog players and put them on their heels early in this contest.
Williams is currently the second-leading rusher in the nation and needs just 64 yards to become BYU’s all-time leading rusher. His 10 rushing touchdowns this season trails only Heisman front-runner Lamar Jackson. HE has proven to be the real deal and will have a chance to showcase his talent against an SEC defense in this contest. Last week, he completely dominated what was perceived to be a very good run-stop unit in Michigan State. Mississippi State is allowing 132 rushing yards per contest. They also conceded 83 yards on the ground to South Alabama’s lead back and allowed 293 rushing yards to UMass. IF they struggled to contain those "lesser" backs, they will certainly have a hard time containing Williams who has rushed for at least 160 yards in each of BYU’s victories. We see no reason why he shouldn't hit that mark in this contest.
Another area that we feel could be exploited in this matchup is both teams’ ability to covert on third down. In the Cougars’ victory over Michigan State, BYU converted 10 of 16 third downs. That mark improved in the second half when the Cougars converted 6 of 9 and scored 28 points to rally past the Spartans 31-14. BYU is currently ranked 18th nationally in third-down conversion percentage, having converted 48.3 percent of their attempts. Including the Cougars' 10 of 15 third-down effort against West Virginia, they have converted above 60 percent twice in the past three weeks and we could see a similar effort against the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have struggled on third down this season and are only converting 30.9 percent of their third-down attempts. The ability to move the chains and keep drives alive are critical and BYU has certainly proven to be the more proficient team thus far this season.
Games can be won or lost in the 4th quarter and so far, this season, the Cougars have owned the fourth quarter in their contests. Through the first half of the season, the Cougars have scored 76 points in the fourth quarter; an average of 12.7 points per contest. Their scoring in the final frame has accounted for 44.9 percent of their scoring this season. The end of the game has by far been the best-scoring quarter for the Cougars this season and allows. Mississippi State is more even in its scoring by quarter and has scored 30 points, or an average of six points per game in the fourth quarter, which is about half of what the Cougars have scored this season. MSU has also been a notoriously slow slow-starting team this season, having scored only 17 points in the first quarter this year.
BYU has played (by far) the toughest schedule in the country and has been able to hold their own in every game thus far as evident by their 5-1 ATS record. There is no question that the SEC is by far the toughest conference in the country and this is the Cougars chance to show that they are able to compete with the 'Big Boys' and still have success. They will aim to prove that their victory over Michigan State was no fluke and that they are by far the better team in this contest. Judging by the trends and performances of both these teams this season, we expect BYU to jump out to an early lead only to have Mississippi State close the distance in the second and third quarters. Doing what they have done all season, the Cougars will rally in the fourth, create separation on the scoreboard and at the end of the game, will do just enough to not only come away with the victory, but will also cover the spread in the process.
BYU seems like such a square bet to me. Missy State is GARBAGE. Should lose this game by 3+ TDs. BYU has 3 losses by a combined total of 7 points. At Utah, UCLA & At West Virginia. Coming off that big win At Michigan State. This line seems so fucking fishy to me.
Yep. This is the only reason I haven't touched it and won't touch it.
I did take Louisville -34.5 tonight.
not much going on this weekend.
iowa st +14
Loving the Cyclones and two touchdowns
Not in love with this week's parlay, but whatever.
Curious what makes you like that? Was leaning the opposite way.
Memphis has the athletes to manhandle Tulane on both sides of the ball, but I don't have faith in their offense to go nuts. It's going to be close to that number, but I think it falls Under.
So I went back and looked at Pinnacle's (super sharp book/players with the highest limits) closing lines vs. Bovada (square/public book) for last week:
In games where Pinnacle was shading their lines and closed 1 point or more differently than Bovada, they went 7-2 (were wrong on how they shaded TCU and Michigan). Think I'm onto something:
Pinnacle closing lines:
NC State -2.5 (they wanted you on the Irish)
Maryland -2 (they wanted you on the Terps)
Houston -15.5 (they wanted you on Houston)
Ohio State -28 (they wanted you on the Buckeyes)
Virginia Tech -3 (they wanted you on UNC)
Michigan State -3.5 (they wanted you on the Spartans)
Miami -1.5 (they wanted you on Miami)
Bovada closing line:
NC State -1.5 (they wanted you on NC State)
Maryland -3 +105 (they wanted you on the Penn State)
Houston -16.5 (they wanted you on Navy)
Ohio State -29 (they wanted you on Penn State)
Virginia Tech -1.5 (they wanted you on the Hokies)
Michigan State -6 +105 (they wanted you on BYU)
Miami -3 +105 (they wanted you on FSU)