Week 7 College Football

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Debose4Heisman, Oct 7, 2012.

  1. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Fair enough. I just think this is classic overreaction. You see this every week in gambling. Looking too much what the team did the week before. Not saying you are doing it, just that the betting public is doing that in this game. They are also doing in the Duke/VT game backing Duke and the Wisconsin/Purdue game backing Wisconsin.

    Like last week the public was backing Washington at Oregon because Washington beat Stanford the week before and Oregon failed to cover at Washington State. Oregon then buried Washington.

    Same thing with Iowa/Minnesota the week before. Public backs Minnesota saying why on earth are they getting points when the week before Iowa lost to CMU and Minnesota beat Syracuse. Iowa then buries Minnesota.
     
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  2. rockportraider

    rockportraider Well-Known Member

    Haven't played these yet but so far I like:

    Purdue-3
    UConn-5.5
    Vandy+8.5
    Iowa State+6.5
    BYU-6
    ND-7.5
    LSU-2.5
    TTU+3.5
     
  3. Swt

    Swt Well-Known Member
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    Anyone know if lsu's center is back? I saw him go down early in both au and uf games and the offense get significantly worse. Lsu also had their rg go out at uf. Playing with pretty much your second string oline and mettenburger on the road in some serious stadiums was a real bad position to be in.

    I've been high on South carlina being atleast the 2nd best team in the sec all year but this is a tough spot to put down on them.

    Lsu or nothing assuming the public is on Scar. It's an 8pm kickoff also I think.
     
  4. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    night game in baton rouge is the only reason I'm not putting much on this game. I think it's equally difficult to bet on LSU though.

    SEC in October is generally a bad month for gambling
     
  5. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    Western Kentucky -2 Thursday night
    My buddy in the athletic dept. at Troy said this is one of the weaker teams they have had in a while
     
  6. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    troy or nothing for me .. They don't call it the "shave" belt conference because they have an abundance of razors .. to be honest, that line makes the least sense of any this weekend. I'm done with that conference's games, and WKU might cover that easily .. this just has fix written all over it.
     
  7. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    I am on Troy and glad i got it at +3....come on fix.
     
  8. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    My plays this weekend, lots of faves, thoughts?:
    AZ State -22.5**. Off a bye week, Colorado sucks, dance with the one that brought you.
    Texas +3**. Texas gets pressure on Jones. Lower scoring game than most think, will take under as well.
    OK State -23 (1.25 units) -- holy shit up to 27 now
    Ole Miss -4.5 (1.25 units). I've had the pleasure of watching Auburn this season bc a buddy is a huge fan. They blow.
    Bama -21 (1.5 units). Probably a sucker bet. Mizzou defense is pretty good. Betting on Mizzou scoring less than a TD with Franklin out and OL in the shitter. Bama is great on the road in SEC.
    Rutgers -7 (1.5 units). Cuse sucks away from the dome. Rutgers D is legit.
     
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  9. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    will be on ASU, OMiss and Bama myself
     
  10. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    Ok State up to 28.
    I have it at 23, should I middle it?
     
  11. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    Atlanta BravesDenver BroncosChicago BlackhawksMississippi Rebels

    Man, if you liked that 23, I wouldn't. Then again, I'm a pretty conservative bettor.
     
  12. chuckles

    chuckles Well-Known Member
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    Florida GatorsAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Does anyone have an idea of how often the favorite covers in Thursday night games? I have absolutely no evidence for this but my gut feeling is that it's low. It makes me very wary of betting on ASU, even though they seem like the obvious play for tonight.
     
  13. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    Atlanta BravesDenver BroncosChicago BlackhawksMississippi Rebels

    Some trends are certainly worth following, but I don't think that is one of them. Maybe if it were home favorites or road favorites, but just favorites I think has to be spurious.
     
  14. GuyOnA_Buffalo

    GuyOnA_Buffalo Orphans, Cougars & What Not
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    Texas RangersOklahoma City ThunderCleveland BrownsOklahoma Sooners

    If it goes to 28x, I'd try it. Depends on how much I had on it too. If you bet big especially. Then you'd have 24, 27 and 28 covered.
     
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  15. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    public, mid-week, road favorites were NOT covering at a clip of 68% from 2000-2010. I lost count of it last year.
     
  16. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    Atlanta BravesDenver BroncosChicago BlackhawksMississippi Rebels

    See, I think that's a worthwhile trend to look at. But, just saying "favorites" is not, because there's no real explanation. Road favorites makes sense because of the travel on a short schedule, the lack of home field advantage, etc.
     
  17. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    RAS totals:

    SMU/Tulane o48.5
    Miami-OH/BG o54
    Utah St/SJSU o47
    Idaho/Texas St o51.5
     
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  18. chuckles

    chuckles Well-Known Member
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    Florida GatorsAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    good feedback. i hadn't really thought to further filter it but there you have it. anyway, good luck to those who pull the trigger (on either team).
     
  19. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    what about when the road favorite is coming off a bye week?
     
  20. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    no idea
     
  21. DarthFader

    DarthFader New Member

    I'm not sure how the rest of the O-line looks this week, but Alex Hurst may not play this weekend due to personal issues. He hasn't practiced all week. Hurst was recently moved to LT to help Mett's protection. Bad news if he doesn't play. That said I took LSU -2.5 earlier in the week so I'm hoping for the best.

    Just to follow up: If Hurst doesn't play, Miles said likely senior Josh Dworaczyk would return to left tackle where he started and played against Washington.
     
  22. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    So, I went to my online banking and saw that someone has stolen my info somehow. I've got some charges that I know I didn't do. So its looking like I won't be placing any plays this weekend which sucks. :feelsbadman:

    Guess ill watch the games and the lines and see what I notice so I can learn a little more about some teams for next week.
     
  23. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Wow. That sucks.
     
  24. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Yea, luckily I've got that protection shit from the bank so it will just cancel those charges and ill wait on another card to be sent. Still blows.
     
  25. Irish226

    Irish226 Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Happened to me about a month ago. Charged about $500 before the bank figured out i wasn't in Omaha, Tulsa and California in the same day.
     
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  26. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    4 team 6 pt. teaser
    Steller -.5
    Tulsa -10
    ASU -16.5
    W Kentucky +3.5
     
  27. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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    made a small play on ASU -22

    due to this

    Polk is officially listed as "doubtful."

    RB Christian Powell and DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe are both listed as out as are RB Terrence Crowder, DT Justin Solis, ILB Paul Vigo, CB Yuri Wright.
     
  28. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Holy hell at ASU. That's what I get for backing an unranked 3 touchdown road favorite. :facepalm:
     
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  29. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    muchos time left
     
  30. DarthFader

    DarthFader New Member

    Yeah they got this
     
  31. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    ha. ASU telling me to STFU. Hopefully they keep the foot on the gas.
     
  32. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    already won with tulsa
    need az state -22.5 and -11 2h
     
  33. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    az state giving game away
     
  34. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Between this and that terrible fourth down they are trying not to cover.
     
  35. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    i took az state -11 2h but i have more on game cover.
    come on!
     
  36. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    what does unranked have to do with anything?
     
  37. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    i tell you what
    if oregon is anywhere near a 20 pt favorite i may bet 1k on it.
     
  38. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    az state terrible in pass pro
     
  39. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    fuck todd graham
     
  40. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    This is gonna be it right here. Need points come on fellas.
     
  41. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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  42. bRamonceTaylor

    Donor

    now don't give up a bull shit TD
     
  43. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Yes to both things. Eating crow and no TDs.
     
  44. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    all they've done all season is cover.
     
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  45. The Great Pumpkin

    The Great Pumpkin The Next Portugese Prodigy
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    :yousoright: at Rece saying, "Into the endzone for a somewhat significant touchdown in some eyes."
     
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  46. Rowdy Burns

    Rowdy Burns War Eagle Baby!

    fucking steelers killed my teaser
     
  47. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Clemson's Chad Morris says your welcome ASU fans :smug:
     
  48. The Great Pumpkin

    The Great Pumpkin The Next Portugese Prodigy
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    Early predictions on the ASU-Oregon line?

    Oregon -6?
     
  49. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    if it is anywhere below 20 i will be HAMMERING oregon
    az state qb constantly bowing out of pocket with pressure
    oregon really good at bringing pressure