Week 8 and a little of 9 too

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLankAU, Oct 17, 2011.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Few lines sticking out to me. Good as time of any to start the discussion. Been doing very well in college and getting abused in NFL.

    Arkansas -17 @ OleMiss

    Ole Miss is a shitshow. They show no signs of getting better. Fans are in a mutiny. Everyone finally figuring out how terrible Houston Nutt is. OM banged up from a long game vs. Bama saturday. Petrino had 2 weeks to get ready for this game against a defense that can't stop a leaky faucet. Vandy on deck so no look-ahead game. Arkansas tends to play very well in early day games. Petrino will put up 40+. No way OM hits 20. Will continue to fade OM until they show signs of life

    Penn State @ Northwestern +4.5.

    Like the home dog here in a conference game. Persa has been playing lights out. Their defense has just been getting beat and losing them games. Penn State's offense is trash. NW should be able to contain them pretty well. Haven't been a believer in PSU's defense the last year and a half I think they benefit from playing in the big10 against bullshit offenses.

    SMU +3 @ SMiss.

    SMU been one of my teams all year haven't bet on the the last 2 weeks but have been picking them in OFP almost every week. Constantly undervalued because they are SMU. SMiss is nothing special on defense, pretty bad at run defense actually, they have just benefited from a lot of turnovers in their "big games". SMU should be able to run a balanced offense. White boy RB Line has been solid all year.

    FIU +130 @ Arky State.

    Tomorrow night's game. Wrong team favored here. People with a short memory forgetting that FIU went to Louisville on a national TV and whipped their ass. ArkState is not good. I don't know what Vegas is thinking here maybe giving them that much home field advantage or what but their wins are against: memphrica garbage, Cent Ark (d2), W.Kentucky garbage, and La-Monroe garbage. FIU has acutally played decent teams and won - Louisville, UCF. they should have beaten Duke were up with 5 minutes left and had a sack/fumble/td that lost them the game. Turnovers probably be a big factor here also, Arky State has 13 on the year and FIU has 6. Probably gonna start off the week tomorrow with a decent sized wager on this one.

    OkieState @ Mizzou +7.5.

    Mizzou is healthy finally. Playing pretty damn good. QB James Franklin is no joke and is a really solid dual-threat (61% 10td 4int / 94 carries for 390 yards and 7tds). Texas went 8-19 on 3rd down vs. OSU's 2-12, also texas had 5 turnovers. OSU only won by 12 and looked comfortable sitting on a lead when they got it, which isn't the first time I've seen them do that this year = ZonaState, TexasAM also. Mizzou should be able to attack OSU with a balanced run/pass and throw in a scrambling QB they can play in this shootout and keep it within a TD.

    leaning to:
    Washington @ Stanford -20.

    no respect in the bcs poll. know they need to be waxin folks. who is washington and why are they ranked?

    WV -14.5 @ Cuse.

    Cuse is trash. They beat Wake on some flukey bullshit opening night of CFB on thursday and haven't done anything since. They have lost to the only other BCS schools they've played (17-38 USC, 16-19 vs. F'ing rutgers) and WV is coming off a BYE week and they are head and shoulders above the rest of the BEast this year. Cuse gives up a TON of passing yards on defense (320 ypg if u don't count rhode island). Meano Geno gonna light them the what up on national tv. If WV doesn't turn it over 5 times they win this game by 4TDs. Style points gonna come into play after seeing the 1st BCS ranking and WV being the 6th ranked 1-loss team. Gotta beat the shit out of BEast opponents since SOS is not in their favor
     
  2. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Really like the Arkansas line. Also I disagree with you on the Oklahoma St pick, I think they will beat Missouri by 14-17 points. It might be a little closer than they'd like it to be and you might be sweating it out until the 4th but I think they will put it on Missouri by the end of the day.
     
  3. TLAU

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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    there are some pretty gaping holes in that OkieState defense. still I need to trim at least 1 play off of the card and that could be the one. Sooner or later these top 10 teams are gonna start losing ATS. it's science
     
  4. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Yea, I agree that Oklahoma State's defense has had some holes coming in. But their secondary is the best part of their team. They have the ability to turn Missouri into a one dimensional team. If they can do that, they win this going away. You know, I haven't seen anyone mention Texas A&M, I know they collasped in two straight games in the second half but coming off the Baylor game, and getting to play Iowa State knowing they need help in the polls and Tannehill looking good last weekend I see this getting ugly. Texas A&M will wear Iowa State down and on defense Iowa State will look horrible against what actually is a pretty good defensive team in Texas A&M. I looked and last night it was -20.5 and I would say grab that if you really wanted something else. But I'd just drop Oklahoma State if you don't feel confident and leave it without that one game.
     
  5. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    it was Arizona not Arizona St, who lost to OSU...oddly enough it was ASU who beat Missouri.
     
  6. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Love Arkansas this week too, especially with an extra week to prepare

    Love me some Bama this week too. No reason why they shouldn't win by 30+ again at home
     
  7. slhorn

    slhorn Well-Known Member
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    That's an awful lot of points against an SEC opponent. Granted I don't pay much attention to the SEC but my book has it Bama - 30 right now. Can Tennessee really be that bad?
     
  8. BhamBammer

    BhamBammer Showtime for Heisman
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    I wouldn't touch the Bama game :twocents: Too many points. There are better picks out there.
     
  9. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Probably laying off Bama this week but I have been on them the last 3 weeks and they have been $. However I wouldn't bet on Tennessee with someone else's money
     
  10. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Decided to tone down the degenerate special tuesday night instead of putting 100+ on it went with:

    $65 to win $50 on FIU +3.5
    $35 to win $45 on FIU +130
     
  11. * J Y *

    * J Y * TEXAS
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  12. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    also like FIU in it after checking over their team sunday evening for a little while and Monday night.
     
  13. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    You mean in addition to the reasons stated in the OP? :idk:

    Ark State relies too heavily on the pass. 1-sided offense. Aside from the weather that is looking more and more like it may negatively influence both teams passing game tonight, I just like betting on QBs that are game managers and don't make stupid mistakes.

    Carroll: 6td 1int
    Alpin: 6td 8int

    Can draw from those stats alone that ASU is asking Alpin to do more than he is capable of and relying solely on him to win them games - he is also the leading rusher on the team.
     
  14. * J Y *

    * J Y * TEXAS
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    my bad didnt see it up there, I have Ark St. +9.5 in a super teaser, was a Dr. Bob 2 star at -3, he's been dog shit this year though
     
  15. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    That's not a bad one to have in a teaser, Ark state's not bad and their losses were to decent programs, but there's something about how FIU played their 2 losses close to teams that were either better or bigger that seems like they've improved and may be a better team right now than Ark State, which struggled against Western Kentucky.
     
  16. bRamonceTaylor

    Donor

    FWIW Texas didn't have 5 turnovers against OSU, that was OU.

    I kind of like Mizzou here also since they seem to be playing better and this will be OSU's third tough road test. An 11 am game on the road, after a tough road game. Has "its a trap!" written all over it.
     
  17. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    The line movement says trap as well.
     
  18. DUCKMOUTH

    DUCKMOUTH People don’t you know, don’t you know
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    1. Our run D is actually pretty good, but when you play Navy those numbers get a bit inflated.

    2. Turnovers in big games? Sure we got 4 turnovers against UVA, but those were picks. It's not like USM just was getting fumble recoveries all day. Defense was getting pressure forcing bad throws.

    I have seen all USM games (2 in person and the rest on tv) this year and seen SMU 3 times(all on tv). Even with our 2 top RBs out and our All American LB out we have better players on the field top to bottom. If SMU wins it will be because June Jones is a better coach than Larry Fedora.

    With all that being said......No way in hell Austin Davis loses his senior homecoming game. Davis will be the difference maker and USM will win. I may have my Mustard Buzzard glasses on, but I just don't see SMU leaving Hattiesburg with a W this weekend or coming within a FG.

    31-24 USM wins. Good luck with everything else though.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. TheBobs

    TheBobs I'm an American.

    Just to let let you all know, there is some chatter that LSU may be without Honey Badger (TM7), Ware, and Simon this weekend. Nothing is confirmed yet. I'm trying to stay on top of it as much as I can, but it's something to watch. Don't think it would be enough to give Auburn a HUGE edge, but that +22 is looking better if those three are out for LSU.
     
  20. TheBobs

    TheBobs I'm an American.

    Adria_Goins Adria Goins

    Hearing reports that #LSU will suspend three players for the AU game Saturday. Mathieu, Simon, and Ware. Miles holding a 6 pm presser.

    It's on twitter now. Can't speak to the validity of the source (other than to say that she's a Shreveport news anchor), but it's starting to look like it has legs. I'm still not touching it, but it makes that line a little more enticing for sure.
     
  21. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    I liked it before the news. Took it this morning. Line went down to 21.5 and is now off the board :mulletsmug:
     
  22. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    :getmoneyfuckbitches:
     
  23. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Wouldn't touch the Auburn game and will stay away from the Alabama game personally (Never bet on my own team).
     
  24. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    I got it at AUB +24 before it went off the board.

    Still think that LSU can cover, esp. considering the green QB. But the loss of their starting RB and corner really hurts, don't care how deep they are.
     
  25. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    looking at taking the over on points for boston college @ va. tech. 43.5 seems way too low considering how bad BC is. probably going to look closer tomorrow and try to come up with a handful of other solid plays. it helps now that teams are in conference play and have common opponents, to an extent.
     
  26. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    I've got a few picks that I'd like to put in a teaser but need some more to go with them. Stanford, Arkansas, Oklahoma St and a few more.
     
  27. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    ark & ok state i'll probably lay something on individually, but won't feel too good about either one. with ok state, took the under..

    right now i went in on a 6 team one (so of course it won't win...but if it does :chatzy:)

    kansas [email protected] kansas state -11
    [email protected] over 43 1/2 pts
    [email protected] over 55 1/2 pts
    [email protected] over 59 pts
    [email protected] wake -3
    ok state @ mizzou under 69 pts

    going to check more into cfbstats.com tomorrow on some other matchups and see who's injured/out for saturday if possible...
     
  28. CC

    CC Waiting for moments that never come
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    Got AU at 22.5
     
  29. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    That's a good looking 6 teamer but the only one I don't know about is the under on Ok State. Not because they have a great offense, because that's a lot of points. But because I'm not sure their defense can stop Missouri, who also has a good offense, all game. Missouri on the other hand doesn't have a great defense, so both will score. 69 points is only around a 35-34 game. Oklahoma St can score 40-50 by themselves. They also give up a decent bit of yards and Missouri puts points up. Question is, will Missouri get the extra 20-30 points?
     
  30. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    pretty much got my final card:

    thursday:
    UCF -9.5 1st half $50

    friday:
    West V -13.5 buying hook. $100

    Saturday: all $50
    Arkansas -17
    Mizzou +8.5
    SMU +3.5
    NWestern +4.5

    5 Game Parlay $30 to win $470
    WV -13.5 / Ark -17 / Mizzou +8.5 / SMU +3.5 / Auburn +22.5

    3 Game Teaser: (10 points) $100
    WV -4 / Maryland +27.5 / Arkansas -7
     
  31. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    What I was initially looking at was how OK State's offense does in road games, the 2 meaningful ones they've had at least. Against A&M OSU got 30, and against TT they had 38.

    Missouri looks like they have a decent enough D to keep OSU around 30 or less, while OSU's D seems to do okay and gets 2-3 turnovers per game. Mizzou doesn't look like they have a good 3rd down O while they have a decent 3rd down D. Their O conversions were around 25% against ranked teams while D conversions was around 39%. OSU's 3rd down O & D conversions were around 44% and 54% respectively against ranked teams. Part of Missouri's stuff is skewed by their road game at Oklahoma though, but then again Oklahoma was beat up after the FSU game a little.
     
  32. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    I know UCF is a wayyyy better team, but for some reason UAB hangs around in games like these. Just something to keep in mind, they don't like to get blown out until the second half lol. I may be completely wrong and UCF may be up by 50 at half because UAB is really that bad but I'm just saying, history says they hang around in games they shouldn't.

    Yea, we shall see. I have stayed away from the game totals in Oklahoma St games because they get a lot of points for being such a high powered offense. 69 is a lot of points but both of these teams are capable of scoring 40 on each other. I don't see them doing that, but 35 from Oklahoma State is a low number and only needing a few more points in the other direction is the key. Basically you've got to hope that Oklahoma State does all the scoring and allows drives to the 50 or 40 for Missouri, just far enough for them to eat clock and not get points.
     
  33. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    they actually fall behind early in games and backdoor big spreads if you check the splits on their scoring margin by quarter

    I think it's something like:
    1st
    UCF +25
    UAB -23

    2nd
    +25
    -29
     
  34. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Hmm that is interesting, I guess I haven't followed their spreads closely enough to really have numbers to back up my case, because I don't ever touch UAB lol. I guess a sure bet is always the ML on them though. Best of luck to you man! I sure need some luck this week too. Would like to rebound from Georgia fucking me on the -6.5 against Vandy.
     
  35. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    I keep having a feeling this weekend is gonna be the one that I lose. so far have had good luck and held on to my winnings. need a weekend to take a break. shit is stressful and lines are getting tight
     
  36. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    Hadn't noticed it either, just know UAB is terrible and their starting RB is still doubtful with a knee injury and their QB had a bad concussion against ECU.

    The problem's more with UCF hating to score points. Given UAB, they should be able to cover 9.5 though.
     
  37. CC

    CC Waiting for moments that never come
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    My final:

    $30
    Auburn +22.5

    Parlay $10 to win $464
    VT over 43.5
    Kansas St. -11
    Oklahoma St. under 69
    Colorado +30.5
    Cal -3
    Wake -3
     
  38. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Done betting on glorified highschool games during the week. forgot how much money they have cost me in the last few years.
     
  39. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    Haven't touched any, but think it's interesting that there is an option for them on 5dimes.

    Love that betonline.com's live wager at the start of the game had a moneyline on syracuse +600. They swing them way too wide at the start of games like that, too easy not to drop $5 or $10 on it just for the hell of it.
     
  40. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    Kansas St. -11
    Auburn +23
    Cal -3
    Wake -3
     
  41. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Worked out for you.
     
  42. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    eh, made up for betting on rutgers to make a comeback :facepalm:
     
  43. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    even went back and repicked this going for the over on ok state/mizzou

    fuck you wake forest.
     
  44. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    the hell happened to wake in the 2h?
     
  45. Spontaneous Cumbustion

    Spontaneous Cumbustion Well-Known Member
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    Fucking Wake and Arkansas. Learn to play two halves
     
  46. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    3rd quarter had two 3 and out's from trying to get all pass happy. between that Duke had two 15-play scoring drives that wore Wake's (shitty) D out. Grobe hung them out to dry and got lucky at the end.
     
  47. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    bad week for just about everyone i've talked to. at least i didn't lay as much as I have been the last few weeks cause I felt it coming on. oh well gonna lay low for a couple of weeks and maybe save up for bowl season.
     
  48. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Yea same here, everyone I know has taken a hit this week. I'm glad that once I saw Syracuse beat the shit out of WVU I stayed away from all the games this week. That one game saved me a lot of money.
     
  49. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    Add me to that list of those who took a hit. I'd have to go back and look, but I didn't do well on the Duke-WF game (finished under points total...) or the BC-VT game (was heavy on picking the under only to see them kick a FG to give it 44 total points not 43, tough loss) on Saturday but then made most of it back with yesterday's games.

    So if I got this right, Wake has an offense that can light up FSU and averages 30 points a game, but suddenly in second half they get predictable, stop running to make bad passes for 3 & out's, (4 of their 6 possessions in the 2nd half!), hung their D out to dry, and need a late game long TD to win by 1? Against Duke, a team dropping 30 points a game on average?

    What killed me was staying away from games I felt kind of good about a choice on, but was unsure if it'd happen in college, like the points in Clemson-UNC going over or LSU-Auburn's points total while there were others like Ol Miss-Arkansas that I'm glad I avoided. Sunday's games though like Atlanta & Jets I got lucky on pulling upsets and went something like 7-3 yesterday mainly thanks to Drew Brees & Tebow helping 2 teams to solidify their race for Andrew Luck.
     
  50. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Yea, a lot of the games I liked before Saturday went well. But I would have had some other in a teaser that would have lost me money. I may have come out even but I'm glad I just stayed away and didn't touch any games this week. No college games and no NFL games. I'll pick back this week.