Week 8 CFB

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FriendsofJtyler, Oct 16, 2016.

  1. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Clemson TigersWashington Capitals

    Boston College -6 v. Syracuse

    ^ Dirtiest line of the week. Public will be lining up to back Cuse (and we know how it usually works out when the public backs a road underdog) after their huge win against VT and Babers emotional post game locker room speech. Last time everyone saw Boston College they got drilled by Clemson on national tv. Eagles are off a bye + an extra day. Line says the Eagles win this and public is sucked in.

    Favorite play this week is VT. They were in a terrible spot last week coming off that UNC win and Miami on deck. They will look a lot better this week at home in front of a big Thursday night crowd. Wheels have fallen off for Miami. Anything under a TD would be a play for me.

    Lean to Penn State early as well. Nice bye week for them finally starting to play better football. Back to back road games for Ohio State coming off that big road win in Madison. Obviously don't expect Penn State to win this, but getting 21 at home? All day.

    I like Arizona State getting 7 as well. Arizona State is a different team at home than on the road. Tough spot for Washington State with a long trip off that huge UCLA win.

    Like Lville a lot too, but just too many points (will wait to see if that number comes down). NC State isn't going to have much left in the tank coming off that devastating loss to my Tigers.
     
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  2. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Couldn't agree more, going to snag VA Tech at -4 first thing this morning. Not only do they matchup well it is a Thursday game at home.
     
    #2 Juan, Oct 17, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2016
  3. The Hebrew Husker

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    So should I bite on BC -6 when it finally shows up on my site, or will public bets bring it down even more?
     
  4. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Gallant Knight you jump on your Hogs yet, if so what did you get it at?
     
  5. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    bc opened at 4. agree with you on that one.

    ville line has jumped too. my book hasn't released lines yet but it looks like it is already up to 18.5. i bet by saturday it is up to 21.
     
  6. Gallant Knight

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    nah i always wait until gameday to lock in bets
     
  7. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Terrible spot for the Razorbacks. Lots of people underestimate the effect of emotional highs and lows on college players. Back to back tough home games for them going on the road against an Auburn team off a bye and a team that's finally getting it going. Anything under 7 should be a play on Auburn.
     
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  8. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Agreed. However +9 is tempting. Especially with how this series has been in the past. I think it is at 7.5 now. Just saying if you do like Arkansas now is the time to get it. I am personally not touching it.
     
  9. Gallant Knight

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    Yeah except auburn sucks
     
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  10. The Hebrew Husker

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    Jumped on BC -5.5 probably could have waited for it to go down, but if it opened -4 screw it. Did it small but have no problem taking the opposite of a possible sucker bet.
     
  11. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Some early leans I like for Week 8.

    Memphis at Navy +3
    Wisconsin -3 at Iowa
    Miami at VT -5
    Tulane +11.5 (ML and Spread) at Tulsa
    UNC -8 at UVA
    NC St +20 at Louisville
    Wyoming -4 at Nevada
    Indiana -2 at Northwestern
    UCF at UCONN +3.5
    Colorado +2 at Stanford
     
  12. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Damn you are opposite me almost every game.
     
  13. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Probably a good thing for you.
     
  14. Stone Cold Steve Austin

    Stone Cold Steve Austin Tickler Extraordinaire
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    South Alabama +8 looks like a good play
     
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  15. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    i am on memphis and ville against you.
    indiana with you, but at +3. i think you just wrote the wrong line down.
     
  16. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Correct. IU +2.5 at Northwestern.
     
  17. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Anyone have thoughts on Buffalo +21.5 at NIU?
     
  18. The Hebrew Husker

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    My thought process on that one is both teams have one win, both teams have an FCS loss, NIU has hung close their last two MAC matchups. Blindly I would say no one should be giving 21.5 in a matchup of 1-win teams, but what do I know?
     
  19. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Where's our MAC expert?
     
  20. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Seriously. "Big MAC" of whatever the hell his name was.
     
  21. Corky Bucek

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    It's LeVar Burton
     
  22. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    :blush: It's MACtion Man...:beaver:

    Let the algorithms run. It's only Wednesday. I'll report back on Friday.
     
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  23. The Hebrew Husker

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    Obviously if you're just messing around this post can be ignored, also if you really have a system you dont need to give me a huge detail. Do you just plug in certain stats or what? Just wondering because I started tweaking with something for March Madness last year and my 'projections' were almost always within 0-2pts of the Vegas spread using just actual statistics, was wondering if you use any other factors. (Yes I know mine was for bball, but as a math dork I wonder). Thanks
     
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  24. The Hebrew Husker

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    Wisconsin -3 vs Iowa...interesting
     
  25. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    this seems trappy on both sides. i lean iowa but can't pull the trigger.
     
  26. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    pickem picks for the week. they put out lines on tuesday so some are different than current

    VT -6.5 mia - with the rest of you on miami wheels falling off
    OSU -23.5 ku - kansas is bad. that tcu game was more tcu sucking dick than jayhawks being able to keep it close with a half decent team
    BC -5.5 cuse - purely because of this thread
    WV -5.5 tcu - been riding WV and fading TCU for most of the season.
    A&M +16.5 bama - if A&M doesn't turn the ball over it could be a close game. may throw a small hail mary play on A&M +650
    Utah +5.5 UCLA - ucla has only beaten one team with a pulse this year in byu and barely beat them. i'll take a decent team getting 5.5
    Auburn -9.5 Arky - bad matchup for Arky. our strength on D is stopping the run and their D sucks horribly vs the run game
    PSU +19.5 OSU - again mostly because of this thread
    OU -13.5 TT - might be my least favorite out of these picks but still like it bc fade TTech
     
  27. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    gonna be at a sportsbar tonight with all the games on might as well get some action on all of them

    ML Parlay: Packers -360 / VT -250 / Cubs -153 pays almost 2-1
     
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  28. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Agree 100%. All of these have that too good to be true smell to them. I am laying off all of them.

    CFB
    Wis -3 v Iowa
    Syracuse +5.5 at BC

    NFL
    Min -2.5 at Phi
    Balt +0.5 at NYJ
     
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  29. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Story of my life.
     
  30. TLAU

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    parlay will go 2-1 at best just not sure which team loses it
     
  31. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Have VA Tech -3 got it early in the week and bought 1/2.
    Northwestern -2
    Kansas State -1
    aTm +18
    Wisconsin -3

    Eyeing several others but this is what I have already locked in.
     
    #31 Juan, Oct 20, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2016
  32. The Hebrew Husker

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    I bit the BC -5.5 line, considering biting on Iowa +3 and hoping one hits, haha will probably just go 0-1 with BC and kick myself when Iowa wins
     
  33. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Added South Alabama +9 and TCU +6
     
  34. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Great call on VT.
    Had it called early.
     
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  35. dome foam

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    yep, joined on VT. nice pick.

    i bet ville at 19.

    added wyoming -4 max bet. they should put up 300 yds rushing alone. coming off a bye? yep.
     
  36. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Finalized plays for the week.

    (Was on VT -5)

    Char +12.5 at Marsh
    Buf +21.5 at NIU
    Tulane +11.5 at Tulsa
    UCF at UCONN +3.5
    Col +2 at Stanford
    Mem at Navy +2.5
    Wash St -7.5 at Arz St
    MTSU +6.5 at Missouri
    Wyom -4.5 at Nev
     
  37. Stone Cold Steve Austin

    Stone Cold Steve Austin Tickler Extraordinaire
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    Tonight I have:

    Oregon +3 and ML +140
    San Jose State +23

    Just saw where Oregon is now a point favorite so that's nice.
     
  38. Barves2125

    Barves2125 "Ready to drive the Ferarri" - Reuben Foster
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    Wisconsin -3 at Iowa
    Ohio State at Penn State +19.5
    SUNY-Buffalo +23 at Northern Illinois
     
  39. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    why is oregon getting money? is davis webb hurt?
     
  40. Stone Cold Steve Austin

    Stone Cold Steve Austin Tickler Extraordinaire
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    He has been. The only update I could find was from last week and they were expecting him to be back this week, but it was a throwing hand injury and he couldn't grip the ball so who knows.
     
  41. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Something has to be going on.
     
  42. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    The rest of my stuff:

    Virginia Tech -3.5 (Lock of the Week)
    BC -5.5 (LOTW)
    Auburn -9.5 (LOTW)
    Lville -19.5
    Kansas State -2.5
    Iowa +3 (hook)
    Stanford -2.5
    UVA +7.5
    Kentucky +3 (hook)
    Texas Tech +13.5
    Penn State +19.5
    LSU -5.5
    Arizona State +7
     
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  43. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I know I should be taking BC... why am I being hesitant? Maybe because they just kinda suck.
     
  44. Savage Rob Chubb

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    Forgot what thread I was in for a second and was like wtf?
     
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  45. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Because their offense is terrible. This is simply a situational pick.
     
  46. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    haha. This is the deep heart to heart emotions thread.
     
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  47. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Here is what I got, had a great Thursday.

    VA Tech (W)
    South Alabama (W)
    BYU (W)
    Northwestern -1
    EMAW -1
    Wisconsin -3
    TCU +6
    aTm +18
    Louisville -19.5


    Will probably lock in tomorrow

    Ole Miss +7.5
    Ohio State -19
    Arizona State +8
     
    #47 Juan, Oct 21, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2016
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  48. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Love your confidence. I think Auburn wins but 10 points is a lot to give Arkansas. I am not touching it and pray for an Auburn beat down for fan purposes. BOL
     
  49. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    82% of bets on wiscy. line has moved half a point. tread carefully.
     
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  50. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    A wise man once told me to always take Iowa as a home dog. I don't always like it, or better it, but I always keep it in mind