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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Debose4Heisman, Oct 14, 2012.
Count me as one. Thought Texas was the play. So did a lot of so-called sharps.
Oregon is down to 9 on 5dimes... I was going to hop on this right away but if it is going to keep moving down maybe I should wait.
Do you guys think it will continue to drop?
I definitely had that Texas D too high. Still felt I had Wv about right with the ability to lose to just about anyone with a defense.
I like WVU this week. As many of us said, their loss against TT was a terrible terrible spot for them. Now back at home and not having to travel 1,500 miles a day before kickoff should help. Think the public will be all over Kansas State in typical public overreaction from the previous week.
Went ahead and took ASU +10
I need to get a more public book. +9 at 5dimes is killing me. Would feel much more comfortable getting DD.
How much do you think this line could move? I, too, think the public will bet KSU. Do you think it could get to a pickem?
I have no idea.
This guy is spot on:
Betus is such a public book. I love it.
Unranked Oklahoma State 14 point favorites over #24 Iowa State.
This is the WVU/TT trap line this week. This line screams OSU rolls by 3+ touchdowns.
seems to me like your right, but my instinct says iowa state.
Which is exactly what Vegas wants you to do IMO
early road game after an emotional loss.
Ok State isn't as bad as a 6 point win over KU looks. Maybe Wes Cunt is back.
what abt clemson -8.5 at home v virginia tech?
Love that line. It should be around 15-20 imo.
Disclaimer I'm a Clemson fan so take it with a grain of salt.
The line feels low, but I don't trust Dabo coming off a bye and keeping this team focused. We don't play well after having time off (see his record in bowl games). I think we match up well with them (beat them twice last year pretty handily), but I think Beamer will have his team prepared with revenge on their mind. VT did just lose their starting center (and best lineman) for the year in their game against Duke. I just don't trust our high school defense against any team in guarding against a backdoor cover.
Think Alabama covers this week? We've done pretty well against Tennessee in the past few years.
That Ok State game does look very enticing but Iowa State also is a solid team. They looked good against EMAW last week.
As for Vandy, I want to take them so bad because I truly think they win this game and are the better team this weekend but these are the types of games Vandy loses. Coming off a hard fought game against Florida. Now they come home and play an Auburn team that is looking terrible. I feel like its Auburn or nothing for me. I'll look at the O/U and see if I want to touch it.
I'm going to stay on the Iowa St train. Don't think oSu is very good and with Barnett, Iowa St doesn't turn the ball over as much.
Also like Clemson, Tech, Houston
Haha my bad. I was watching TV and started thinking Oregon State. My fault.
good info from over at theRXforum:
I think the 8.5 number is probably low for Clemson, but I don't ever trust Clemson to put teams away. With their defense, I feel like they could struggle to really pull away. They could definitely cover, but I won't be betting that game.
What in the world warrants FSU laying 18 points on the road to Miami? Two weeks ago they lose to a NC State team on the road that lost to Miami. Seems like way too many points.
Miami is not a bad football team. 3 losses but two of which came on the road to two top ten football teams.
Miami's qb is probably gonna be out for one
Anyone making a play on tonight's game?
This is from a guy on a different forum that strictly does Sun Belt.
La-Laf -4 1 Unit
Going with the better offense here, as the Cajuns almost double the Mean Greens scoring output per game. N.Texas runs a power running game on offense, which plays into the Cajuns strenghts. ULL has a ton of size in their front 7, and are among the nations leaders in rushing yards allowed per game. Not sure N.Texas can pass well enough to take advantage of a shaky ULL secondary.
Guys I saw this on twitter, this is pretty crazy.
Western Kentucky has covered 14 straight. If you bet $50 on 1st game & doubled bet each time you'd be up $409,600
It's so smart to stick to one conference that you know. I'll never do it because its boring as fuck. But I have to respect a guy that shows that kind of discipline.
Is he any good? I'd assume so, but had to ask.
Stephen Morris is hurt for Miami.
He is very good. He had his 1st losing week last week. But I agree with him on ULL but I wanted to do a double check to see if he was on it.
In college basketball you can be extremely successful if you have a good knowledge of one of the smaller conferences and play their games consistently.
I like MTSU +20 @ Miss State a lot. State's coming off a big win and heading into another huge game.
What's everyone thinking on Kstate/Wv? leaning Kstate. Anyone have some reason not to go with them?
The line is very strange. KSt is good, but is playing the 2nd of back to back road games, and why would the lower ranked team be a 3 pt fav?
waiting to see how the public plays this game
HELL YEAH! I love me some Southern, Big West & Summit League basketball.
iowa st up to 14.5
penn st up to 3.5
I think both home team win those games......easily
I don't think there is anything unusual about the #13 team getting 3 points at home against #4, especially given that the latter isn't a traditional power. If you eliminated home field, K-State would be a small favorite, which makes sense.
I like WVU for a few reasons. If there were a time to buy low on WVU or sell high on K-State, it's now. Last week WVU got caught in a sandwich game on the road against a solid unranked (at the time) Tech team whose strengths--passing, defending the pass--matched up incredibly well against WVU's pass-heavy offense and porous pass defense.
K-State may be better than Tech, but they don't match up as well versus WVU IMO. Klein is a solid passer, but that K-State offense is built to grind it out on the ground, and WVU's defense has been respectable against the run. K-State's pass defense is suspect--UNT (not a passing juggenaut ) moved the ball well against them, as did Missouri State (I didn't actually watch the latter game)--and the only quality passing attack they've faced (OU) had success moving the ball again K-State but shot themselves in the foot otherwise.
I expect WVU's pass game to have a ton of success. Also, K-State is a team that thrives on winning the turnover battle (see: OU game), but WVU rarely turns it over. I have my doubts about K-State's ability to beat a team like WVU on the road without coming out ahead in turnover margin, as well as their ability to play from behind against a team with a really good offense should WVU get out to an early lead.
mine so far..
Might buy off Kstate and Scar if the lines move wrong.
MTSU's best offensive weapon, Benny Cunningham, is out for the season with a knee injury. He was huge for their offense. And their defense is gives up 442 yards/gm.
MSU may have a let down with this game sandwiched between Tennessee and Bama, but this game looks more like a chance for State to tune up for the Tide. And given Mullen's desire to want to crush opponents (the play-action TD with :14 left in the 4th against UT) I don't see MTSU keeping this game close.
Then again, when I feel really confident about a game, it goes the opposite way.
Wow. Did not realize Cunningham was hurt. Glad I posted that.
2 Units on ULL -4.5 for me
Glad to know my rambling was helpful.
Plays so far:
Iowa State +14.5
Ohio State/Purdue o62.5
waiting on BYU to see if it moves back to +14 before I play it
Neb/NW - want to watch line
Looking at tonight's game, La-Lafayette seems like the obvious play. It's at -4.5 at my book. But North Texas has slowed some good offenses down this year, and both teams like to run the ball. I might look at the under as a play.
On UNT and Under
I'm going to join you. I like the under and I'm going to fade my initial reaction to this line and take North Texas +4.5.
Good luck to us!