Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2020?

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by lechnerd, Jan 10, 2019.

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Who will be the Democratic candidate for 2020?

  1. Beto

    19.2%
  2. Warren

    9.6%
  3. Bernie

    7.6%
  4. Biden

    23.7%
  5. Ocasio

    1.0%
  6. Hillary

    2.5%
  7. Kamala

    16.2%
  8. Oprah

    3.5%
  9. Landrieu

    0.5%
  10. Bloomberg

    2.0%
  11. Cuomo

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. Holder

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. Deval

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  14. Booker

    3.0%
  15. Other candidate

    11.1%
  1. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    they also gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning the election, based on polling.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
     
  2. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    I'm sure our giant orange turd of a President won't bring up the NA ancestry at all during the 3 nationally televised debates in the fall of '20. :facepalm:

    Just go to 538 for the poll numbers. Her best state so far is NH and she's polling 3rd there currently
     
  3. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    no takers?
     
  4. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Who cares? If you're swayed by that and not the mountain of fucked up shit Trump has done then you probably were already voting for Trump.
     
  5. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    is your point that this makes them more or less worthwhile to listen to?

    cuz given that 28.6% is a pretty significant percentage and most publications were citing hillary with more certainty that gave me more confidence in 538.
     
  6. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    Less, obviously.

    Huh?

    Right. Most publications were even worse at their predictions. In other words, fivethirtyeight is about as good as the predictions get, and they suck at it. This tells us how much stock we should put in electoral predictions.
     
  7. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Because it allows him to talk about DNA tests (2020 version of emails) instead of the focus being on what you mentioned above.
     
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  8. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    So just a question. If you have a die and predict it will roll to a 1 or a 2 33.3% of the time, subsequently cast the die and you get a 1 or a 2. Does that 33.3% prediction now also suck?
     
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  9. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    Who could the nominee be that would make him talk about stuff that isn't total bullshit? That's possible, in your eyes?
     
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  10. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    To say that election predictions are "multivariate" would be an understatement. They represent the collective deliberations of millions of individuals. I don't think something univariate, like a dice roll, is a valid comparison.
     
  11. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    im not saying it is. All im saying is that having a lesser likelihood be the result doesnt make a probalistic estimate flawed.
     
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  12. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    And to say that being off on your prediction by 70k votes across 3 states makes you terrible at it when it's very much within the margin of error is being obtuse
     
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  13. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    IDK, maybe put someone else on stage he hasn't been trolling on Twitter (effectively, I might add) for the past 4 years?

    Warren performed terribly in the 2018 midterms, she won her state +24 when the metrics suggested she should have won +39. Mostly due to the Pocahontas crap.
     
  14. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    I'm not seeing any polling on 538. I can't imagine that polling a year out from the primary is all that worthwhile. Even if it is, there's a primary where the candidate is decided.
     
  15. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    I wasn't talking about her. Im just asking you if you think there's any way Donald Trump actually talks about real things, something he hasn't done ever. There's a candidate that can make him do that?
     
  16. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Why are you asking me a question you know the answer to already?
     
  17. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    The point is you just substitute Warren with any other name and you have the exact same thing. You said Warren was a bad idea because it allows him to avoid talking about all the shit he's fucked up. There isn't anyone who can make him argue substance. It's impossible, therefore irrelevant
     
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  18. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    Be that as it may, it would certainly be the most expeditious way to prove that it was inadequate at predicting outcomes.
     
  19. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Warren gives him something he can hammer home to fire up his base, just like the emails and Hillary. What's difficult about that to understand?
     
  20. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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  21. Talking Head

    Talking Head The Bag Man
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    [​IMG]
     
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  22. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    Those people aren't voting for a Democrat. The people who will cheer when he calls her Pocahontas aren't suddenly switching to the other side because Kamala harris or Beto is the nominee
     
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  23. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Elizabeth Warren was 2018′s weakest incumbent

    The 10 Senate and House incumbents who underperformed by the most in the 2018 elections*

    INCUMBENT PARTY STATE OR DISTRICT EXPECTED MARGIN† ACTUAL MARGIN NET INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
    Elizabeth Warren D MA D+39 D+24 -15
    Chris Collins R NY-27 R+13 R+0 -13
    Sheldon Whitehouse D RI D+36 D+23 -12
    Mia Love R UT-4 R+12 D+0 -12
    David Cicilline D RI-1 D+45 D+34 -11
    Bob Menendez D NJ D+22 D+11 -11
    Jim Costa D CA-16 D+25 D+15 -10
    Duncan Hunter R CA-50 R+14 R+3 -10
    Steve King R IA-4 R+13 R+3 -10
    Rob Woodall R GA-7 R+10 R+0 -10
    *Excluding open-seat elections, elections that did not feature both a Republican and Democratic candidate, jungle primaries, elections with multiple incumbents and elections where the incumbent was an independent.

    †Based on the state or district’s partisan lean, its elasticity and the national popular vote.

    SOURCE: ABC NEWS

    from 538
     
  24. indeed

    indeed DMV
    Penn State Nittany Lions

    Warren is a compelling candidate inside the liberal and progressive echo chambers. Probably not so much at a broader national level.
     
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  25. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    All the polling is linked in the link I provided. Does it say where ABC news was getting +39 because that's way off from what all the polling suggested?
    upload_2019-1-11_10-14-25.png
     
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  26. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Did I say that?
     
  27. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    #177 leroi, Jan 11, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
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  28. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    So what's the point? You seem to be arguing that running someone else gets his base less fired up. How does the level of fired upness impact those people's votes? It still counts as 1
     
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  29. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    You are confusing polling in MA for her Senate race with how she should have performed based off of the national vote, the state's political lean, and other local races.
     
  30. NilesIrish

    NilesIrish Come to Notre Dame, you can ride a horse.
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    I believe that yes they have to be eligible to take the reigns. But with the way this shit works you could probably challenge that in court.
     
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  31. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Where are they getting expected margin from if not polling?
     
  32. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    actually that is not true at all. The best way is to show flaws in the methodology i.e. show where they are actually increasing the bias of the polls. As fancy as they try to act is just aggregate polls based on a quality rating, aggregate the polls on a state by state level and make a codependancy matrix for all the states. If you are a good scraper of data what they do is really not that complicated but therefore also inherently vanilla.

    If you can provide with a strong reasoning why Trump significantly outperformed all polls in specific swingstates in the midwest but not really anywhere else that should clearly have been introduced in their model despite having not having any history of urangutangs running for presidency I'd gladly listen but I struggle to believe any reasons brought up will not reek of hindsight
     
  33. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    Are you arguing that enthusiasm and motivation among a party's base is not important in elections?
     
  34. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    You have to be 35 as well.
     
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  35. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    I'm saying that if you're a trump voter at this point you're a Trump voter. It's a cult. He's going to get relatively the same amount of votes no matter what. Him talking about her being Pocahontas or talking about someone else having a funny nose isnt going to sway that significantly
     
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  36. Eathan Edwards

    Eathan Edwards Well-Known Member

    Also had to refer to him as daddy throughout and ask permission to order drinks and food, wasn't allowed to talk directly to the server.

    When you get at that level of power they just start having to make up new shit to keep them not bored.
     
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  37. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    I'm not arguing Trumpers are changing their vote. I'd rather not give him the opportunity to continually talk about the fact she listed herself as a minority while teaching at Penn. It's a stupid issue that shouldn't matter but unfortunately there are millions of stupid people out there.

    That doesn't even begin to go into the more important questions about her candidacy. To me, its doubtful she can fire up all the distinct elements of the Democratic base on a national level like Obama did.
     
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  38. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    He's going to talk about something stupid either way. There's no way around it. What that stupid shit is is almost entirely irrelevant
     
  39. Talking Head

    Talking Head The Bag Man
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    That's the creepiest shit I've ever heard.

    Is he an investor or something? Why would you hang out with that person?
     
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  40. Tobias

    Tobias doubtful...not with brexit
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    yeah this. that sounds like an awful human being i would have no interest in being around
     
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  41. Wicket

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    honestly that would intrigue me for like 1 evening. After that I'd be done though
     
  42. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    Pass
     
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  43. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    From the actual election results
     
  44. Talking Head

    Talking Head The Bag Man
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    Dude I feel bad for strippers.

    I can't even imagine sitting there at a dinner while this person was paying a human being to act like his slave.
     
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  45. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    How do you get expected margin from election results?
     
  46. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    I believe he's saying the 39 or whatever was what she won by last time
     
  47. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    I do as well. Dont think anything you do changes that so you can at least act like a proper human being wrt that person and hope to at least somewhat alleviate it
     
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  48. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    It isn't though. She only won by ~7% in 2012
     
  49. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    Oh then I have no idea
     
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  50. Muddy Badger

    Muddy Badger Well-Known Member
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    this isn't super complicated

    Her 2018 re-election was also unimpressive in a state as blue as Massachusetts. Warren won, but only by 24 points in a state nearly 30 points more Democratic-leaning than the country as a whole.

    Add in the extremely favorable national environment to Democrats, and she “should” have won Massachusetts by more than 39 points.Here’s the gory math behind that calculation: Democrats won the national popular vote for U.S. House by 8.6 percentage points. Massachusetts has an elasticity score of 1.15, which means that, on average, the state swings by 1.15 percentage points for every 1-point change in the national political environment. From here, it’s simple arithmetic: 8.6 times 1.15 equals 9.9 — or a nearly 10-point advantage on top of Massachusetts 29.4-point Democratic lean.
     
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