Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2020?

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by lechnerd, Jan 10, 2019.

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Who will be the Democratic candidate for 2020?

  1. Beto

    19.2%
  2. Warren

    9.6%
  3. Bernie

    7.6%
  4. Biden

    23.7%
  5. Ocasio

    1.0%
  6. Hillary

    2.5%
  7. Kamala

    16.2%
  8. Oprah

    3.5%
  9. Landrieu

    0.5%
  10. Bloomberg

    2.0%
  11. Cuomo

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. Holder

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. Deval

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  14. Booker

    3.0%
  15. Other candidate

    11.1%
  1. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    We are talking Trump versus Warren, not another candidate against Trump.

    Maybe Warren convinces me she can rally blue collar votes like Connor Lamb or Mike Doyle. But maybe she dons a hard hat and looks as goofy Michael Dukakais riding in a tank.

    I don’t think carrying Philly and the suburbs will be enough.

    I think you are underestimating the sexism.
     
  2. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Pennsylvania went hard towards women in 2016 though...
     
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  3. bhrangerfan0809

    bhrangerfan0809 Sprinkles are for Spelling Bee Winners™
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    Based on the Cook Political Report initial ratings from earlier this month, the following states are tossups for 2020:

    Arizona
    Florida
    Michigan
    Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin

    Based on midterm exit polling, the most important issue in each state was health care, ranging from 40-46%. Immigration was at about 30% for AZ and FL, but 20% or lower in MI, PA, and WI. Trump's approval rating was only north of 50% in AZ and FL. The economy was rated as "good" by 64-74% of voters in each state. This seems to indicate the Democratic nominee will have a leg up in the northern tossups, which would secure the election barring any other unexpected outcomes (46 EV).

    Views on international trade in these three states were negative for about 50% of voters in 2016, but views of Trump's trade policies in 2018 were fairly evenly-split into thirds of "helped", "hurt", and "had no impact".

    While this polling may not mean much in a little under two years, it seems the key is to drive home health care reform, most likely in the form of some scaled-back variation of Medicare-for-All that is still reassuring to those who are adamant about keeping their existing coverage (so, more accurately, Medicare Buy-In). That could be something like the Bennet-Kaine "Medicare X" proposal.
     
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  4. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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  5. fsudan

    fsudan Well-Known Member
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    :loldog:

    That's kinda racist isn't it?
     
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  6. fsudan

    fsudan Well-Known Member
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    Dem's really on a roll. Reminding folks who really started the klan and filibustered the civil rights act
     
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  7. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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  8. fsudan

    fsudan Well-Known Member
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    Y
    I
    K
    E
    S
     
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  9. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    Bernie fucked up with this "Medicare for All" proposal. It was a great marketing slogan, because Medicare is popular. It was wide-open, it could've meant many different things.

    Then he went and attached that great name to a shit policy. And think tanks said, "oh this is stupid it will cost $3.2 trillion/year in new taxes."

    Now everyone thinks that that single-payer "will cost $32 trillion", which the GOP will keep using as a talking point.
     
    #359 leroi, Feb 2, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2019
  10. leroi

    leroi Rival Shark Boat Captain
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    IMHO the democrats need to keep using this "international price index" argument.

    that one makes the conservatives really shit their pants, when they have to explain why the U.S. gov't should be paying like 5 times more for the same drugs as the Canadian or British gov't pays.
     
  11. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Dems have been screaming for neither of Biden or Bernie to run.
     
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  12. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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  13. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Warren’s tax plan, approved by Democrats and republicans alike

     
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  14. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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    Looks like Warren is out of the running...

     
  15. Soup

    Soup Legend in the making
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    I’m not saying she didn’t write American Indian but I’m skeptical, that looks photoshopped.
     
  16. NCHusker88

    NCHusker88 We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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  17. BellottiBold

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    lech realllllly wants to talk about this, if anybody feels like helping him out
     
  18. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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    She's not denying it genius.

    This will haunt her into the election. Trump's dream opponent is Elizabeth Warren with Schultz running as an independent.
     
  19. Joe_Pesci

    Joe_Pesci How can less be more? It's impossible
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    Pundit lechnerd is the best because it's obvious that he's just repeating whatever trump twitter is saying at the time
     
  20. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Trump said he grabs women by the pussy.

    Warren, who proved she has Native American ancestry with very little doubt, said she was American Indian on a card.

    She didn't she was part of a tribe or anything. Lest we forget the One-Drop Rule that many states implemented for African Americans from Sub-Saharan Africa and Native Americans.

    The Cherokee Nation spokesperson already came out and said that Warren apologized for creating the confusion between ancestry and being a tribe member but they thanked her for shedding more light on the subject

    Cherokee Nation executive director of communications Julie Hubbard said in a statement last week that Warren had apologized to the tribe.

    "We are encouraged by this dialogue and understanding that being a Cherokee Nation tribal citizen is rooted in centuries of culture and laws not through DNA tests," Hubbard said. "We are encouraged by her action and hope that the slurs and mockery of tribal citizens and Indian history and heritage will now come to an end."
     
  21. Soup

    Soup Legend in the making
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    Trump is 1. Republican and 2. A trash human being.

    I’m not sure why we’re using him as a measuring stick for Democrat candidates for 2020.
     
  22. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    also the whole republicans fall in line and democrats fall in love thing. Since '04 the republicans have had between 60 and 63 mln votes, the democrats from 59 to 69.5

    its sad that its mainly apathy that has caused a Trump presidency and a bush presidency but its the case. If the democrats could turn out everyone who voted for Obama in 08 and an average group of young voters the republicans could field the genetically modified lovebaby of ronald reagan and ike eisenhower and they wouldnt stand a chance.

    (by the way im not saying I think reagan was a good prez, just saying that republicans seem to think so. Ike was okay although he kinda fathered the religious right)
     
  23. BrickTamland

    BrickTamland You're not Ron...
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    Thread kind of got muddied up with “who should the nominee be” and “who would I like the nominee to be” distinction.

    I’ve still got five more pages to go here but I’m curious as to how those who know the field, issues, and party would answer those two separate questions.

    TwoPoor Lyrtch Arkadin Redav

    Update: okay, so page five was... interesting
     
    #373 BrickTamland, Feb 6, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  24. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    You can remove the first line from my post and the point still remains. It's a non-issue in the grand scheme of things.
     
  25. Soup

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    It’s a non-issue to me too.
     
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  26. naganole

    naganole Vox Populi Vox Dei
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  27. Matt Foley

    Matt Foley Well-Known Member
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    1) Hillary was a moderate Democrat and we all know how that worked out. The midterms are proof positive that the country generally is on board with a shift left. Some of the most “left” policies are incredibly popular among all demographics.

    2) Trump is not just “pretty unpopular”, he’s historically unpopular.

    3) Democrats only need their base. It is larger. They do not need to flip Republican voters. They only need to energize their base.

    4) Not sure how Democrats “alienated a good bit of the country” in the last election. By....not being shitty people?

    5) Democrats are never going to win most of the “heartland and south” states. They are, generally, a lost cause.

    That said, literally any Democrat would poll better than Trump right now. Whoever gets the nomination definitely has a chance. I don’t know why you are dismissing Warren either, because she is a great candidate that could do wonders to fix the growing economic inequality problems in this country that are (second to climate change) the biggest threat to America going forward.
     
  28. NCHusker88

    NCHusker88 We named our yam Pam. It rhymed.
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    I bet I know
     
  29. BrickTamland

    BrickTamland You're not Ron...
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    I’d love a conversation about wealth inequality, but that would easily derail this thread.
     
  30. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    Agree with 2-3, don’t care about 4. With Hillary Clinton, it wasn’t her moderate politics that killed her. She was an unlikable candidate who utterly failed to campaign in the key states she lost.

    Sanders beat her in the industrial Midwest everywhere but Ohio. She didn’t acknowledge that weakness. She didn’t visit Wisconsin after Labor Day. She waited six weeks after Labor Day to visit Ohio, Michigan, and Western PA. Too late.

    On 5, im interested to see what restoring felon voting rights does to impact Florida. Margins have been very thin there and we’re looking at over 1 million new voters.

    Aside from that, however, there is no electoral path to victory for a Democrat without the Rust Belt Midwest.

    Democrats won the popular vote in 2000 and 2016 by running huge margins in the NE and West Coast, but none of that matters without the Midwestern states or Florida.
     
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  31. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    Give me Biden/Harris or Biden/Warren
     
  32. NilesIrish

    NilesIrish Not a master fisher but I know bait when I see it
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    Harris/Pete
     
  33. herb.burdette

    herb.burdette Meet me at the corner of 8th and Worthington
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    I say this every cycle, but I wish Democrats would name key Cabinet positions at the Convention and then fan out to campaign.

    It’s a Joe Biden/VP ticket, but let the nominee announce that Ocasio-Cortez is going to be nominated for Education Secretary and turn her loose on Devoss. Campaign with a team in place.

    Keep the Nader, Jill Stein, Bernie Bro purity tests to a minimum by showing that a moderate is going to promote a liberal agenda on issues that matter, even if it’s going to be moderate elsewhere.
     
  34. Soup

    Soup Legend in the making
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    Give me Harris/Beto. Set up the next 16 years.
     
  35. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Why do you want Biden and all of his actual skeletons
     
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  36. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    I want a woman leading the ticket.
     
  37. Arkadin

    Arkadin inefficiently efficent and unclearly clear
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    That would be great, by I believe America is still too misogynistic unfortunately
     
  38. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    2018 showed that women win elections. IMHV, A white man candidate just isn't going to energize the base unless it is Beto. And even then, I am unsure.
     
  39. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    People tend like Uncle Joe and he was the VP for a very successful president. He also plays well in the rust belt.
     
  40. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    Bidens campaign would be an apology tour for his entire career
     
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  41. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    And as much as I like him, I don't know if it boiled down to it though, if people would vote for Biden to be the president of the United States.
     
  42. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    No it wouldn't. That's just what you'd want it to be.

    I love Joe. But the timing isn't right and he is just a little too old and been around a little too long
     
  43. Redav

    Redav My favorite meat is hot dog
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    Biden took money to speak on behalf of a GOP candidate leading up to the 2018 election.
     
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  44. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    What do people currently consider the rust belt? It’s been an ever changing entity since it was given a name/recognized.

    Indiana/Michigan/Ohio/Pennsylvania?
     
  45. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Polling has shown it doesn’t matter who the Dems nominate, that they’ll be much more likeable than Trump.
     
  46. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    Agreed but look at the 2016 election and tell me likable old white man doesn't probably have a better chance in a general than likable insert minority. Unless that person is a transformational candidate like Obama, that is.
     
  47. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Look at the 2018 election and see what energizes Democrats.
     
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  48. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    I'm not trying to stump for Biden. I'm just telling you why some people may like Biden. It's not really a mystery.
     
  49. bro

    bro Hey Hermano
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    he has already responded to this

    [​IMG]
     
  50. Bo Pelinis

    Bo Pelinis WE GO HARD ON EARTH
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    Because it doesn't really matter what energizes democrats as a whole. Or who's likable compared to Trump as a whole. It matters what energizes and who's likable to them in very specific places.