80% of Tallahassee has no power. Trees down everywhere. No known fatalities. Nice sunny day now. Hopefully we get power back today.
Hot Karl: Proceding to the act of hot-karling involves one of the following: 1. Any part of sex in which faeces from one partner is found on the other, regardless of the technique. NOTE: the action of defecating on one's self may not be regarded as a "hot karl" but rather as "soiling yourself". 2. A form of assault in which the assailant procedes to fill a tube sock with his own faeces, ready to engage in fierce guerrilla. While you were sleeping, I snuck into your sister's room and hot-karled her. Brandon is such a moron, let's hot-karl him after school today.
Too early to say absolutely no shot, but I think it is much more likely to impact Bermuda than it is Florida.
I get the feeling this one is going to stay south and head into Central America, i may be wrong but it feels like the ones that enter the Caribbean that far south have a hard time getting pulled north by troughs.
For any of y'all that have weather stations at your house, which ones do you have, and would you recommend? I'm looking at getting one in the next year, so I'm starting to research.
I'm worried by how slow Matthew is moving, its going to have so much time over incredibly warm water, in a low shear environment. And the longer it takes to take the turn, the worse it is for Florida and the entire eastern seaboard. Not a great combination in my mind.
Really starting to get better outflow and getting more symmetrical every minute. Strongest storms really starting to wrap around the center instead of being off in the NE quadrant like they were earlier today. This thing isn't going to stay a TS for very long, if it even still is right now.
It's been posted in here before, but it deserves a re-post. http://www.spaghettimodels.com/ This site is insane, so many models and graphics and information all in one place, its really the only website you need to visit when you are tracking a storm. And no I'm not affiliated with it in any way, i just think it's that useful. Props to eagle19 for being the first to post it here, I think.
I like Tropical Tidbits quite a bit to complement the Spaghetti Models site. There is more data overall with Spaghetti Models, but Tropical Tidbits is a good site to track what the Euro, GFS, Canadian (), HWRF, GFDL are doing, plus the person who runs the blog for Tropical Tidbits on the front page of the site, Levi Cowan, does a daily video synopsis on the storm that is very good.
My 2 go to sites when shit's brewing. Levi is really informative and makes it easy to understand even for beginners.
His website has inspired me to eventually work on my own site so that I can plot upper air and model data that is hard to find. Perhaps once I get settled in with the new job
i tried to load this at work today and couldn't, so i forgot all about it. Thanks for the reminder, I agree there is a lot to like there, excellent complement to Spaghetti Models.
A lot of the graphics on spaghetti models are straight from Tropical Tidbits too, at least from the little I've poked around.
Definitely took a WSW jog today, that's not good for the east coast and Florida. Models slowly shifting westward.
if its going to stay on a westerly track, yes. But i'm assuming it is still going to take that northern turn that all the models seem so sure of, and the farther west it goes before that happens, the closer it is to Florida and the east coast.
yep, ol' boy went from "kinda ragged" to "damn you scary" looking in less than 8 hours. All in a supposedly unfavorable shear environment.
What happens if Matthew keeps it more westerly and gets into the gulf? Are the waters pretty favorable this year for him to get a head of steam?
This is quite a bit farther west than the model consensus right now, but this is the current GFS model prediction for the storm's location for Thursday. Basically showing it hugging the FL coast