For anyone who still isn't sold, this system went 4-0 again today. So far, there's been 24 bowl games played and the totals system has gone 22-2 (91.67% / +16 units).
arky seems like a public dog today. i like them. bert is pretty great in bowls. btw his twitter is a good follow. posts a lot of really good info.
I'm thinking against the sheet on the first two, not entirely sure with the third game yet... USF lacking a HC scares me a little bit, USC seems pretty terrible though. Like that Arkansas ATS #
That guy is a fraud. Trends like the SEC bowl underdog one have no relevance and tell us nothing. Not knocking you but trends like this are a common misconception with the gambling public
food for thought on colorado/OSU. sheet is not aligned on either side. the loss of leavitt is huge for colorado. i don't want to get swept up in an overreaction, but the pac 12 has looked like shit. generally speaking, teams that have huge turnarounds and make a bowl have letdowns in those bowls...unless they are non p5 schools playing their "superbowl".
the TOP stat is my takeaway from those tweets. however, the arky being 11-2 ATS following a conference loss is a valuable stat. for one, it's common sense. teams following a loss tend to be undervalued anyways. but it's worth noting. the SEC dog following a 4 pt loss doesn't have much value. i agree with that.
some more on arky/va tech. va tech defense was great at home versus BCs offense (0 pts), versus NC in the hurricane (3 pts) and at home against Virginia’s offense (10 pts). but away from home they allowed cuse 561 yds, Pittsburgh 458 yards, duke 375 yards and 21 points, ND 449 yards and Clemson 470 yards . Vt’s rush D also allowed 200 YPG in their last 4 away from home. interested to see what sem thinks of all of these games today.
Going back and forth on USF/USCe. Handicapping is about exploiting value but also minimizing risk. Sheet say USF and the over. If Taggart was still coaching, I think it would be two strong plays. Unfortunately, because Taggart was also the play caller, I think there's too much risk to place money on the game. I'm sitting that bowl game out. Fwiw.... The line movement has a little rlm on USF. It began the morning at -10 and has moved up to -10.5!with 56% of the bets coming in on USCe.
Arky/VaTech is lining up to be Vegas vs. Public. Despite a consistent 2 out of every 3 bets coming in on Arlansas, Vegas Still has it at VT -7. We saw a brief 30 minute window yesterday where it was -6 at a couple books but it quickly went back up to -7. I think VT is an underrated team (if a top 25 team can be underrated). I'll have a pick later.
I know Evans is a solid runner, but how is VTs run game overall? Arkansas was so bad against the run this year
Evans leads the team with 759 yds on 136 carries and 4.2 ypc, Travon McMillan is second with 637 yds on 136 carries for 4.7 ypc. After that the next leading rusher has 65 carries. Team avg is 4.0 ypc. Edit: Rank is 55th in the country. Arky rush defense is 95th and gives up 6.16 ypc and 209 ypg
Always been interested at how the hell they get all this information and, if its straight from the sports books, why the sports books would give out the information.
At work didn't get the bet in. Would have taken USC so if you're on them it's probably safe. Locked Arkansas +7 we'll see. A little nervous after seeing the rushing D #s...oh boy.
oh no it was a baby money parlay just bc I kinda like all 3 and that system 1H has been hitting a ton of 1Hs. which prob means 0-3 on that parlay
don't bet it if you don't like it. for god's sake don't take my advice. don't you put that evil on me ricky bobby.
Both VT and Arkansas have statistically similar offenses. The difference is obviously the defense. While VT ranks 4th nationally in 3rd down defense (28%), Arkansas ranks 107th (45%). Away from Fayetteville, Arkansas has given up 7.5 yards per rush and 8.5 yards per pass attempt. I remember reading someone mention Bielema's success as an underdog, but he's only 2-4 ATS this year as an underdog of a TD or more. They lost to every good team on their schedule (no, I don't consider Florida or Miss. St. good). I like betting on the much better defense going against the big public dog.
The rush defense stats + the games they've lost are what's turning me off this play. Plus like you said the public dog. I really like VTs staff too. Gonna let this brew until kickoff.
Slaw sucks and I'm fading most of the SEC this year I think we were a really weak conference outside of Bama
You hit more than enough bets in the NCAA thread all year. I won't hold anything against you. Don't worry!
Arkansas' Schedule and opponent's defensive 3rd down % ranking Alabama (6th) -- L by 19 (14 pt. underdog) Auburn (17th) -- L by 53 (10.5 pt. underdog) LSU (20th) -- L by 28 (7 pt. underdog) Florida (31st) -- W by 21 (3 pt. underdog) Louisiana Tech (36th) -- W by 1 (21 pt. favorite) Texas A&M (59th) -- L by 21 (7 pt. underdog) Mississippi St. (79th) -- W by 16 (1 pt. underdog) Ole Miss (85th) -- W by 4 (10 pt. underdog) Texas State (91st) -- W by 39 (29 pt. favorite) TCU (98th) -- W by 3 (10 pt underdog) Missouri (104th) -- L by 4 (7.5 pt. favorite) The takeaway? Out of the top 6 teams they faced, they only covered 1 game. They were blown out by the top 3.
Colorado is the best defense that Okla St. will have faced all year. In fact none of the bowl teams that Okla St. has face rank defensively in the top half of total yards allowed or yards per play. We get another chance to go against the public dog (Okla St. getting 60+% of the bets).