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Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Wendel Clark, Nov 4, 2018.
I cant wait for Tuesday! Anyone buy the Blue Ribbon book and want to share it?
Here we go. Pinnacle just released the 2 big games lines.
Kanas -5 152.5 vs. Michigan State
Kentucky -1 148.5 vs. Duke
All lines are coming out now OMG so ready
Here is the link for my College Basketball table.
That table has way more info. Can't wait for the season. Going to try and work on some things to make it better as well.
What kind of win rate do these plays hit at when they all agree? Example Milwaukee vs Boston college
I have no data on CBB. I only have data from October of this year to today. In all sports (NBA, NFL, NCAAF), they are hitting at 63% (14-8)
Let’s hope it goes to 15-8!
Seems good but I think I'm having trouble with the linked table. Seems like some of the data isn't refreshing.
Example: =+VLOOKUP(BH4,'https://d.docs.live.net/cfc1b777b5dc83a7/[College Basketball Totals.xlsx]CBB Total'!$F$3:$J$82,2,FALSE)
That data there is determined at halftime. Ive taken thousands of halftime lines from the past 10 years to come up with that data.
Basically Ill input the amount covered by and if it was over/under by how much and it will spit out historical data. If you go to yesterdays page, you will see what it looks like there.
Come later in the season, I have had great success with the historical data and the teams 2nd half records when they match together.
Like I played the Rider/Central Florida 2nd Half Under based on just historical data. Out of all the games logged for about 10 years when the 1st half went Over by 7. The 2nd Half went Under 119 and Over 89 times.
With a small night tonight, I plan on trying some more Excel magic that will create records for the differences in Spread 1 & 2 and the O/U
really good stuff. looking forward to tracking you as the season goes on.
You playing the Marshall under tonight? Seems like your sheets like it.
I don’t get why that line jumped so much
Yeah that didn't work out tonight. My guess is a serve like RAS played the Over. Probably the only person that can release a play and change the line that much
Seems like the refs were awfully quick with the whistle down the stretch. Weird line movement + unnecessarily tight foul calls; something to file away. Will definitely be watching that ref group going forward.
This whole small plan has turned into a major project. I am now working on to where all I need to is Input the team names and scores and EVERYTHING is populated.
Where are you sourcing all of that data from?
I will actually have to add the lines as well. Here is what it looks like right now.
I've been looking at and using this every day, thanks for updating
Is there a certain # in the difference you look for before making the play?
First off shoutout to momux. I had to been stuck on some things with the excel files and he helped and made my life 10x easier in updating everything.
I haven't been following it to a tee yet. Been super busy with work. I haven't even added the numbers from sagarin to give me the proper spread 1 on a regular basis. I usually spend hours a day on these numbers. With momux help, I have cut the time down by at least 75%. Before it used to take about 5-6 hours to update all the data from a college football saturday. Yesterday it took about a hour. So Im hoping by the end of this week, I will have everything to where I want it.
I usually follow anything over 3 points and if they agree with the Steam Plays.
SP are hot to start the season
110-74 going to continue to make sure my action follows the steam
I finally broke down and bought a sub to Action Network. Big fan
I got to see what its about. If its a cheaper solution then the 2 big boys (SportsInsights - $300/month & DonBest - $100/month) it might be good for me.
I currently pay for the Don Best subscription and its just amazing info
I can't imagine paying 2/3 of my car payment for gambling info. I feel like there's enough information available to make an educated guess without having to drop that amount for numbers and/or someone's opinion
Yeah between KenPom and Sports Action you can get pretty good info for CBB.
Sports Action is like 4.99/month and shows you the line moves, % of money and tickets, there’s also a tab online that shows you steam plays. KP is like 19.99 a year and you get so many analytics. My friend and I have an excel spreadsheet similar to yours based mostly on KP and it was pretty good last year after some tweaks.
So this will likely be wrong like most of my picks in this thread but tossed a unit on EMU +28 against Duke.
I really miss the 24 hours College Basketball marathon
Is it worth it to bet Duke ML -1800 tonight? Risk is huge but no way they lose first round of Maui Invitational when they are the main attraction.
God I love the pointless buzzer beaters to push an under.
How much are you planning on betting? A thousand to win like $50? Doesn’t seem really worth it to me
Who do we like today?
Any plays tonight?
Tennessee over TT 93.5
Got on it too late, and pushed. D amn
A walk on hit a three to hit the team total, and then some random from EKU hit a three to go over the total. Wild 15 seconds for me
any play on duke/tt tonight?
So glad I had dinner with my wife and ended up not taking TTU +10 like I intended to... yikes