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Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Jack Parkman, Apr 25, 2020.
i know COVID sucked for just about everyone but i remain pissed off about last year re: Oregon
had home games vs NDSU (Lance), tOSU (Fields), USC (2022 Slovis), ASU (2022 Daniels?) and UW (primary rival)
it was an all-time great schedule. instead, we got something like 5 regular games late in the year + 5 of our 6 draftees opted out anyways.
Interesting to look back on
did a decent job predicting the top 10 a year ago
A lot of that first round is absolute garbage.
marvin 12th overall lol
The perpetual refrain following any NFL Draft is that one can’t “grade” a draft until a few years out. Naturally, there’s some truth to this. The draft is an uncertain process, and so evaluating it will be incomplete until the process plays out.
But it’s also disingenuous. If fans and analysts are willing to debate about which prospects should go where and what prospects can and can’t do, then they should be comfortable evaluating how teams did in selecting those prospects.
The Consensus Big Board — comprised of the aggregated ranks of over 70 analysts — does exactly that, and was about as efficient as the NFL in 2014, 2015 and 2016. As for the 2017 draft, the results are about the same. Here are the biggest disagreements between the Consensus Board and the NFL Draft in 2017.
Consensus Board vs the NFL 2017
PICK RANK PLAYER POS. NFL TEAM PREFERRED CLOSER
2 21 Mitchell Trubisky QB Chicago Bears NFL Board
31 7 Reuben Foster LB San Francisco 49ers Board NFL
17 4 Jonathan Allen DE Washington Redskins Board NFL
41 12 Dalvin Cook RB Minnesota Vikings Board Board
10 30 Patrick Mahomes II QB Kansas City Chiefs NFL NFL
15 5 Malik Hooker S Indianapolis Colts Board NFL
125 358 Samson Ebukam LB Los Angeles Rams NFL NFL
116 42 Carl Lawson DE Cincinnati Bengals Board NFL
18 43 Adoree' Jackson CB Tennessee Titans NFL Board
19 8 O.J. Howard TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers Board NFL
38 16 Forrest Lamp OG Los Angeles Chargers Board NFL
98 230 Chad Williams WR Arizona Cardinals NFL Board
4 9 Leonard Fournette RB Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Board
96 209 Kenny Golladay WR Detroit Lions NFL NFL
104 223 C.J. Beathard QB San Francisco 49ers NFL Board
119 243 Tarik Cohen RB Chicago Bears NFL NFL
45 91 Adam Shaheen TE Chicago Bears NFL Board
5 10 Corey Davis WR Tennessee Titans NFL Board
6 3 Jamal Adams S New York Jets Board NFL
101 196 Brendan Langley CB Denver Broncos NFL Board
The NFL seemed closer to the true value of these players 11 times, while the Consensus Board was closer nine times, a virtual tie. There are some good players that one group was lower on but still closer to value, like with Jamal Adams and Corey Davis, so it’s not about whether the player was good and who was higher, but rather if that player returned a value closer to their pick value or the board’s value.
One could argue about the results of some of the individual players: C.J. Beathard didn’t play well as a quarterback but finding a quarterback to play competently as a backup is hard enough to find outside of the top 100, and Tarik Cohen largely has one highlight year to his name — but for the most part, their performances were even.
A larger study done by Pro Football Focus on the Consensus Board, using data from 2014 through 2019 found that the Consensus Board nearly matched the NFL pick-for-pick in predicting player Wins Above Replacement (WAR), especially when giving the NFL allowances for picking quarterbacks early and giving the board allowances in the fact that most NFL teams typically prefer to give more snaps to higher picks (the board outpaces the NFL in WAR per snap).
This year saw more fidelity to the Consensus Big Board than ever before, with no teams selecting a player outside of the top 500, and only two selecting outside of the top 400: Michigan long snapper Camaron Cheeseman (444) was picked by the Washington Football Team 225th overall, while former Kentucky defensive lineman Phil Hoskins (489) was picked 232nd by the Carolina Panthers.
An amazing 91.8 percent of the players drafted this year were in the top 300, a record number. No other year broke 90 percent, and most hover around 87 percent. With that in mind, the draft grades could justifiably be much higher this year than they would be in a typical year.
But the draft is a zero-sum game every year, and if one team does poorly, the other teams benefit. The teams can only be judged against each other.
Like last year, we calculated the expected value each team earned on the pick and subtracted the capital of the pick, using an equation that weighs the value of the team’s selections (capital) against the draftees’ rankings in the Consensus Big Board (value). We also take into account positional needs — if a team, for example, drafts a good running back because he’s the highest-ranked player on the board but then never plays that running back because there are five better ones on the roster, that wasn’t a good pick. (For more information on how we arrived at the capital and value numbers, check out our 2019 piece.) Trades aren’t accounted for given the number of future picks and players involved in trades.
In most years, most teams ended up over 100 percent in the return on investment column because the positional need calculation gave them boosts, which means that some teams that graded poorly in other draft class rankings still ended up net positive in value here — just not as positive as the other teams around them. This year, every team did, a product of a tight talent pool forcing outside analysts and teams to converge. Next year, we should see a wider range of outcomes than we’ve ever seen and an unusually competitive UDFA market.
2021 Consensus Big Board Draft Rankings
1 Chicago Bears 4081.4 8126.1 4044.6 199.1%
2 Kansas City Chiefs 3106.7 5293.2 2186.5 170.4%
3 Denver Broncos 5777 9798.2 4021.2 169.6%
4 Cleveland Browns 5014.6 8490 3475.4 169.3%
5 Buffalo Bills 4083.3 6850.7 2767.4 167.8%
6 Detroit Lions 5764 9162.5 3398.6 159.0%
7 Philadelphia Eagles 5656.9 8944.7 3287.8 158.1%
8 Carolina Panthers 6563 10375.8 3812.8 158.1%
9 Tennessee Titans 5188.6 8125.3 2936.8 156.6%
10 Arizona Cardinals 3810 5960.2 2150.2 156.4%
11 Houston Texans 2575.6 3997 1421.5 155.2%
12 New England Patriots 5507.1 8460.6 2953.4 153.6%
13 New York Giants 4331.7 6597.5 2265.7 152.3%
14 Cincinnati Bengals 6722.6 9996 3273.4 148.7%
15 Baltimore Ravens 5319.6 7802.2 2482.5 146.7%
16 Washington Football Team 5527.2 8080.6 2553.4 146.2%
17 Los Angeles Chargers 5765.7 8285.5 2519.8 143.7%
18 Minnesota Vikings 6898.6 9851.5 2952.9 142.8%
19 Green Bay Packers 4550.3 6382.4 1832.1 140.3%
20 Seattle Seahawks 1634.4 2265.8 631.4 138.6%
21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3832 5041.6 1209.6 131.6%
22 Indianapolis Colts 3819.5 4886.8 1067.3 127.9%
23 New York Jets 8046.1 10144.6 2098.4 126.1%
24 New Orleans Saints 3810 4791.8 981.8 125.8%
25 Pittsburgh Steelers 4872.2 6116.3 1244 125.5%
26 Miami Dolphins 6903.5 8610 1706.4 124.7%
27 San Francisco 49ers 6093.8 7580.6 1486.8 124.4%
28 Dallas Cowboys 6892.4 8516.4 1623.9 123.6%
29 Atlanta Falcons 6705.7 8175.3 1469.6 121.9%
30 Jacksonville Jaguars 8696.5 10424.4 1727.9 119.9%
31 Las Vegas Raiders 5083.7 5967.2 883.5 117.4%
32 Los Angeles Rams 3838.1 4387.9 549.8 114.3%
It’s unsurprising that the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets, the teams holding the first and second picks (as well as additional picks in the first round), had the most total value produced by the draft. The board liked every quarterback pick in the first round because there is a substantial positional bonus given to quarterbacks and there were no egregious reaches. (There are limits to this, however. Had Alabama’s Mac Jones actually gone third overall to the 49ers like many expected, the 49ers would have gotten dinged for it just as the Bears were dinged for picking Mitchell Trubisky second overall in 2017, when he was ranked 21st overall by consensus.) As it stands, teams generally valued quarterbacks similarly to analysts, even if analysts generally preferred Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields to BYU passer Zach Wilson.
Fields is the biggest reason the Bears ended up with the highest return on investment, but not the only reason. Had the draft stopped after the third round, the Bears would have ranked fifth behind the Texans, Browns, Titans and Vikings. At the other end of the spectrum are the Jaguars, Raiders and Rams. While the Jaguars ended up with the most total value, they also had the most draft capital coming in. They gained significant value with Trevor Lawrence — indeed, the board regards it as one of the best “steals” of the draft — but lost value with picks like tight end Luke Farrell from Ohio State and cornerback Tyson Campbell from Georgia. This year is a bit unusual, however, in that no team “lost” net value in the way they have in previous years, meaning the Jaguars mostly lost pace because of even-value picks like Clemson running back Travis Etienne and Syracuse safety Andre Cisco.
The Raiders had the single-biggest value loss of the draft with Alabama tackle Alex Leatherwood — a criticism GM Mike Mayock knew was coming — and that pick comprises a significant part of the reason they ended up on the bottom of the list, though picking edge rusher Malcolm Koonce from Buffalo didn’t help. Of the 30 picks that generated negative net value, only Dallas made three of the selections. Those picks were Oregon State corner Nahshon Wright, the first player picked to rank outside the consensus top 300, Iowa defensive lineman Chauncey Golston and UCLA defensive lineman Osa Odighizuwa.
The steals might define a draft more than anything else, so let’s take a look at the picks the Consensus Board liked the most.
Biggest Steals of the 2021 Draft
PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS TEAM
11 5 Justin Fields Ohio State QB Chicago Bears
50 20 Azeez Ojulari Georgia EDGE New York Giants
52 17 Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah Notre Dame LB Cleveland Browns
39 21 Teven Jenkins Oklahoma State OT Chicago Bears
23 14 Christian Darrisaw Virginia Tech OT Minnesota Vikings
13 9 Rashawn Slater Northwestern OT Los Angeles Chargers
158 61 Daviyon Nixon Iowa DL3T Carolina Panthers
226 72 Trey Smith Tennessee OG Kansas City Chiefs
69 42 Joseph Ossai Texas EDGE Cincinnati Bengals
1 1 Trevor Lawrence Clemson QB Jacksonville Jaguars
21 15 Kwity Paye Michigan EDGE Indianapolis Colts
51 37 Samuel Cosmi Texas OT Washington Football Team
7 3 Penei Sewell Oregon OT Detroit Lions
216 95 Quincy Roche Miami (FL) EDGE Pittsburgh Steelers
100 59 Elijah Molden Washington CB Tennessee Titans
Reaches can haunt a team, however, and the biggest reaches are worth investigating as well.
Biggest Reaches of the 2021 Draft
PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS TEAM
17 45 Alex Leatherwood Alabama OG Las Vegas Raiders
119 293 Kene Nwangwu Iowa State RB Minnesota Vikings
84 180 Chauncey Golston Iowa DL5T Dallas Cowboys
149 316 Evan McPherson Florida PK Cincinnati Bengals
104 255 Brandon Stephens SMU CB Baltimore Ravens
156 347 Isaiahh Loudermilk Wisconsin DL5T Pittsburgh Steelers
225 447 Camaron Cheeseman Michigan LS Washington Football Team
99 306 Nahshon Wright Oregon State CB Dallas Cowboys
79 198 Malcolm Koonce Buffalo EDGE Las Vegas Raiders
127 241 Kylen Granson SMU TE Indianapolis Colts
232 489 Phil Hoskins Kentucky DL3T Carolina Panthers
140 252 Buddy Johnson Texas A&M LB Pittsburgh Steelers
108 226 Darren Hall San Diego State CB Atlanta Falcons
57 107 Tutu Atwell Louisville WRS Los Angeles Rams
98 163 Tre' McKitty Georgia TE Los Angeles Chargers
We rarely see only one first-round reach make the list, and with only one second-round reach, it could be that team and analyst alignment has less to do with the thin talent pool than we first thought. Analysts and teams really were in lock-step this year. Naturally, we won’t know for sure until teams have to make decisions on fifth-year options, but this gives us a good head start.
(Photo of Patrick Surtain II: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Hey FSU did have a few guys drafted too.
SC didn't forfeit the game.
Jags ended up with five players from this mock
im pretty sure by any consensus big board Payton Turner is one of the biggest reaches, not that it matters
We care about Covid.
You didn’t want an ass whooping.
had to keep our impeccable defensive statistics in tact
"You fuhkin puussies too scared to let us give you health problems!?!?"
maybe less on in door playgrounds more on competent medical staff idk
Miami reached for Waddle and took a guy that is one concussion away from being forced to retire.
What am I missing?
I don't see Waddle as being a reach. Guy is a beast.
I set myself up for that.
as Jordan Reed showed us you can play football with 30-40 concussions
When they traded up to 6, it wasn't because they thought Waddle was going to be the pick.
I just don't think taking a 5'9 180lb wr in the top 6 is wise
I'll buy that they thought Waddle/Chase were close enough that they knew they would be happy with either. I'll maybe buy that they thought Waddle might fit better with the WRs they currently have. I don't buy at all that they would have taken Waddle over Chase if presented with the opportunity.
whether they end up being wrong or right we don’t know but they are spinning it that waddle was #2 on their overall board behind Lawrence
we got our man!!
waddle is a great fit for check down tua
This Dolphins level of smuggy is something I never thought I'd experience
that was before tua died on the field
It’s the browns and dolphins turn to run this league
This Thor Nystrom fella seems like a real dickhead
I would be curious to see a chart of how the media has graded the Pats' drafts over the last decade. Because it seems like they say they nail it every year since no one can criticize Belichick, and their drafts have been pretty awful most of those years.
can still check it down with the best of em now that he has someone other than Jakeem grant to do it to
I haven't gone back and looked but it seems like his success rate in the first and second round is usually awful but does ok later in the draft.
guys shut the fuck up mac is clearly the next brady
Vikings got the better QB
Miami clearly had them closely rated enough that they felt comfortable trading up to 6 weeks before the draft for one of the two. But yeah, basically everyone agrees Chase was the better prospect and I believe Miami probably would have taken Chase.
I've watched a ton of Waddle videos since Thursday and it's immediately obvious how much more talented he is than Ruggs IMO. Way more burst and COD. I think his floor is a lot lower than Chase but his ceiling is crazy.
Uhhhh, Titans vetting needs a lot of work.
Mond better hope they play the Cardinals every week because he owes Marco Wilson for getting drafted when he did.
Jon Robinson is a disgrace
how many hours a week do you think Vrabel works in the off-season? 16 or so?
6'4, 260lbs and "has no problem hitting a female"
Yeah maybe he should just die
Fuck this guy