Its Breeders Cup Week. Thought there could be some interest in it. Post positions were drawn today- they can be seen here for each race, along with the ML odds: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65905/2011-breeders-cup-complete-entries-with-odds My early thoughts: Juvenile Sprint: Secret Circle should destroy this field. Not much quality behind him. I'll put Sum of the Parts to finish second- he is the only horse that has a win at Churchill. Juvenile Fillies Turf: Have trouble seeing anyone outside of the top three winning (Elusive Kate, Somali Lemonade, and Stopshoppingmaria), and I'd have trouble picking Stopshoppingmaria as I don't know how she'll take to the turf. Feel like she should be in the Juvenile Fillies, but I guess they want no part of My Miss Aurelia. Tend to lean towards the European horses for turf races, and Elusive Kate looks like a good one, so I'd put her on top of Somali Lemonade. Among the longer shots, I could give Stephanie's Kitten a little bit of a look. Filly and Mare Sprint: My pick is Pomeroy's Pistol to edge Turbulent Descent. Switch is a threat, but I just don't think she is the same horse that she was last year. Turbulent Descent will be the favorite, but I feel like Pomeroy's Pistol is improving at the right time, and she has already proven herself against older mares, something Turbulent Descent has yet to do. Juvenile Fillies: Feel like My Miss Aurelia and Wemissfrankie will be the two favorites, but I just haven't been that impressed with Wemissfrankie, and My Miss Aurelia has been impressive, but has yet to go around two turns. I'll go with Grace Hall on top of Candrea. Grace Hall just seems primed to run a big race, and she has been proven around two turns. Filly and Mare Turf: This comes down to three horses: Stacelita, Nahrain, and Announce. Stacelita will almost certainly be the favorite, but I tend to like the other two. Nahrain finished a nose ahead of Announce the last time they raced, and they have faced better competition than the American-based Stacelita. Have a tough time separating the two Euros: you'll get slightly better odds with Announce, but I'd lean towards Nahrain because I think Frankie Dettori is the best jockey in Europe. Ladies' Classic: I like Royal Delta. She wants to go this far, something I'm not convinced Plum Pretty wants to do. Won't hold her last race against her- Havre de Grace is too good for any mare outside of a healthy Blind Luck. Also like Miss Match as a closing second. She's ran with males the past couple of times and hasn't embarrassed herself. Saturday: Marathon: Don't love any horses in this. I'll go with a longer shot in Pleasant Prince. He has talent and he'll run all day. He ran a very nice race last time, but he'll face tougher horses than last time. Would pick A.U. Miner second. Feel like Giant Oak will be a disappointment. Juvenile Turf: Don't know a ton about the Euro horses in here, but I don't really like the American ones. Faraaj seems interesting if he remains at 15-1: he seems to have decent form at least, and he fits in well with this group. Sprint: I'm avoiding Big Drama- too many questions around him. Would have preferred Jackson Bend had he went in the Dirt Mile, feel this is too short for him. He'll still run a good race, but don't think he wins. I'll go with Euroears- he had a nightmare trip in the Vosburgh, but his race two back I feel would be good enough to win this race. I also kind of like Apriority as a long shot. He isn't good enough to win, but he is very playable in exotics. Turf Sprint: I have no opinion on this race right now. Its a giant clusterfuck. Will try and dig deeper into it at some point, as there will likely be some decent value to be found. Dirt Mile: There should be a fast pace in this race, so I am looking towards a closer, and the best one in this field is Caleb's Posse. He's a good horse around two turns, but he's much better around one. Trappe Shot and The Factor are the two most talented horses in this field, but something seems off with them. Turf: Ignore the American horses. They are not in the same class as the five Euros. Even though she didn't run her best in the Arc de Triomphe, I'd still go with Sarafina. She is one of the best horses in the world, and arguably the best horse at the Breeders Cup. Would pick Sea Moon second. Juvenile: Union Rags will be the heavy favorite, and honestly, there isn't a lot to pick apart with him, but he just doesn't seem like he's that special to me, and he hasn't beat much outside of Alpha (who I like as a long shot, and like even more as a 3 year old). I'll go with Creative Cause. He won the biggest two turn prep on the dirt in the Norfolk, and did it easily over Drill. Mile: Goldikova is going for her 4th in a row in this race. I don't think she's quite as good this year as she was last year, but she'll be in it at the end. This comes down to her and three others: Strong Suit, Byword, and Gio Ponti. I prefer Strong Suit in this race, especially if he stays anywhere near the 10-1 on the ML that he is at (which he won't). Classic: In order of post position 1. Prayer for Relief (30-1). Never thought he was that good, even when he was winning his second rate 3 year old races. 2. Flat Out (6-1). My pick. He isn't the most talented horse in this race, but he might be the most consistent, and he will get this distance. He was 6th when he ran at Churchill earlier this year, but he ran much better than that finish indicates, and since then, he's run big race after big race. With Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace in the field, he'll be third choice at best, and could be fourth behind So You Think, but Flat Out may be the only horse in this field without any question marks. 3. Drosselmeyer (15-1). Ran second behind Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which emboldened his connections to place him here, but he should have stayed in the Marathon. Last year's Belmont winner just is a step below the others. 4. Ruler on Ice (30-1). I'm a little surprised that his ML is that much lower than Drosselmeyer- of the two Belmont winners in the field, I actually like Ruler on Ice more. He's recently discovered that he can run off of the pace, which will help him with the quick pace this race should have. Wouldn't surprise me to see him sneak into the superfecta. 5. So You Think (5-1). This Australian horse may be the biggest question mark in the race. Honestly, if his turf form carries over to the dirt, then his best is better than any other horses best with the exception of Uncle Mo. But there have been many horses in the past try to come over from Europe and try the dirt, with mixed results. Just not convinced that he'll take to it, especially since he has never even worked on the dirt. 6. Ice Box (30-1).. He's a shell of his former self, and his former self was never that great to begin with. 7. Rattlesnake Bridge (30-1). Feel like this horse could be very good next year, but he has yet to win a graded stakes. Seems to be too tough for him at this point, but he'll be a very good 4 year old. 8. Game on Dude (10-1). Like Flat Out, he is another horse that doesn't get the credit that he deserves. But he hasn't beaten much outside of Twirling Candy, who had distance questions. He won't embarrass himself, but I just can't see him winning this race. 9. Stay Thirsty (12-1). He's better now than the last two times he ran at Churchill, but he hasn't ran well here in the past, and he seems to love Saratoga- he hasn't been as good anywhere else. I'll pass. 10. Havre de Grace (3-1). Definite contender, but I feel she is at her best at 9 furlongs. She won easily last time out, and beat Flat Out two starts back, but once again, she is going a furlong further than in those races. 11. Headache (30-1). Shouldn't be in this race. He just isn't the caliber of the other horses. 12. Uncle Mo (5-2). He's the most talented horse in this race, but has distance questions. Its a big step going from 1 mile to a mile and a quarter, especially for an Indian Charlie colt, but if one could do it, it would be him. If he does take to the distance, he wins. Even if he doesn't, I think he has enough natural talent to factor. The pace may go against him, but he's shown that he doesn't need the lead. I'll pick him second behind Flat Out. 13. To Honor and Serve (12-1). Much like Rattlesnake Bridge, he'll be a good one next year, but I think the pace will be too much for him to overcome. My picks: 1. Flat Out 2. Uncle Mo 3. Havre de Grace 4. Ruler on Ice
Races from Juvenile Sprint to Ladies Classic are this Friday, and Marathon to the Classic is Saturday.
My actual Breeders Cup selections (with ML odds): Today- Juvenile Sprint: 1. Secret Circle (6-5) 2. Sum of the Parts (15-1) 3. Blacky the Bull (20-1) Juvenile Fillies Turf: 1. Elusive Kate (2-1) 2. Somali Lemonade (3-1) 3. Stephanie's Kitten (12-1) Filly and Mare Sprint: 1. Pomeroy's Pistol (6-1) 2. Turbulent Descent (6-5) 3. Switch (3-1) Juvenile Fillies: 1. Grace Hall (4-1) 2. My Miss Aurelia (5-2) 3. Candrea (6-1) Filly and Mare Turf: 1. Nahrain (7-2) 2. Announce (9-2) 3. Stacelita (2-1) Ladies' Classic: 1. Royal Delta (5-2) 2. Miss Match (10-1) 3. It's Tricky (5-1) Tomorrow- Marathon: 1. Pleasant Prince (12-1) 2. A.U. Miner (3-1) 3. Meeznah (12-1) Juvenile Turf: 1. Farraaj (15-1) 2. Caspar Netscher (6-1) 3. State of Play (5-1) Sprint: 1. Jackson Bend (7-2) 2. Euroears (4-1) 3. Apriority (30-1) Turf Sprint: 1. Camp Victory (12-1) 2. Caracortado (4-1) 3. Hoofit (15-1) Dirt Mile: 1. Caleb's Posse (5-1) 2. Wilburn (4-1) 3. Trappe Shot (3-1) Turf: 1. Sarafina (5-2) 2. Sea Moon (4-1) 3. St. Nicholas Abbey (9-2) Juvenile: 1. Creative Cause (7-2) 2. Union Rags (2-1) 3. Hansen (10-1) Mile: 1. Strong Suit (10-1) 2. Byword (12-1) 3. Goldikova (7-5) Classic: 1. Flat Out (6-1) 2. Uncle Mo (5-2) 3. Havre de Grace (3-1) If you are looking to play longer shots, then Saturday is much more appealing than today. Today could turn out to be a lot of chalk- there just isn't a lot of depth in the races today, while there are a few long shots that could do real damage tomorrow.