UK Politics: Brexit, Tories, Labour, Scotties, IRA, etc.

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Shock Linwood, Jun 22, 2016.

  1. dump

    dump TMB’s premier expert on women’s CBB
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    when did * J Y * start reporting on British politics?
     
  2. LuPoor

    LuPoor Cuddle with the homies watching Stand By Me
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    These are swim's people
     
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  3. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    Cool!!
     
  4. two

    two Hello
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    What kind of immigration reform has been proposed to far?
     
  5. (Z)

    (Z) Well-Known Member
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  6. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
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  7. OopsPowSurprise

    OopsPowSurprise Owed one ass kicking from poweshow
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    Hmm
     
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  8. Handcuffed

    Handcuffed I live inside my own heart, Matt Damon
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    May the worst PM since Cameron
     
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  9. VaxRule

    VaxRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    She probably hasn't fucked a dead pig, though.

    #progress
     
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  10. AIOLICOCK

    AIOLICOCK https://www.antifa.org/
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    Pig wasn't dead :comicbookguy:
     
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  11. VaxRule

    VaxRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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  12. AIOLICOCK

    AIOLICOCK https://www.antifa.org/
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  13. Taffy

    Taffy Token Brit poster
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    Jesus H. Christ this country loves to make things awkward. Here's to more months of uncertainty, a weaker pound, and political commentary from morons on facebook.
     
  14. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    At least you don't have Trump

    :yousoricky:
     
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  15. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
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    Any chance Brexit gets softened?
     
  16. Taffy

    Taffy Token Brit poster
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    Negotiation was due to start later this month, but I'd imagine that will be postponed.
     
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  17. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
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    They were back then, but Theresa May led a campaign reminecent of this:

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. triceratops

    triceratops Tribe Of Dan
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    Teresa May with a outstanding example of when keeping it real goes wrong
     
  19. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    Can someone explain to me how labour would have any path to Corbyn becoming the PM? Despite momentum and gaining roughly 30 seats they are still 57 seats behind the conservatives who are only 8 short of a majority. Seems much more likely that the conservatives try and replace may who is fucking awful and an absolute dumbass for calling this election and move on.
     
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  20. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
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    He doesn't really. The Lib Dems have already refused a coalition, the SNP wouldn't be enough, and the unionist Irish party won't talk to him.
     
  21. VaxRule

    VaxRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    The DUP has already said they would work with the conservatives in a minority government.
     
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  22. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
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    Right; they won't talk to Corbyn because of the Sinn Fein/IRA thing.
     
  23. OopsPowSurprise

    OopsPowSurprise Owed one ass kicking from poweshow
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    So they have a majority still?
     
  24. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
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    A slender one possibly if that in practice; Sinn Fein won't take their seats so you can subtract them from the seat total equation.
     
  25. VaxRule

    VaxRule Mmm ... Coconuts
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    Plurality but they will form a government with the DUP - unless the Conservatives insist on recognizing gay marriages.
     
  26. three stacks

    three stacks hasta la victoria siempre
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    lmfao at Swim Cantore liking this post. May just committed the biggest self own in the history of British politics. it doesn't matter who the PM is right now; they'll be toothless at best
     
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  27. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    whoever the PM is will be in a much weaker position than may was before this election but I also think a new PM would be in a much better position moving forward than may will be.

    With the trump election and the brexit vote you would think the number one lesson learned is that the polls don't have a fucking clue because people are switching parties based on certain issues. Instead, may got cocky and embarrassed. Losing an election you specifically called for is such an epic fail.
     
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  28. (Z)

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    I knew she didn't have much of a personality, but I don't think anybody foresaw her waging the worst campaign ever.

    She pretty much lost an unlosable election.
     
  29. Wicket

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    I dont think either was an example of all that bad polling. Bad poll interpretation in both cases.

    The average poll for Brexit was about 45-45-10% undecided and the result was 52-48. Thats not a big whiff at all. Same for Trump.

    For US presidential election the national polls had Hillary winning by 3% and it ended up 2%. There it was only the vulnerability in the midwest that was more underreported than it was badly polled.

    The last french elections for instance were a much bigger whif, it just didnt change the outcome so it doesnt get much reporting
     
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  30. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    Every poll I saw on brexit was stay up 2-3%. Are you saying the media just straight up juiced the polls or lied about the results before reporting? Not exactly like I saw the raw data. Same on trump. Obviously the national doesn't really matter but the rust belt swing states where he won were close but Hillary was winning every one in every poll I saw.

    French election I knew macron would win so I didn't really follow closely.
     
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  31. MORBO!

    MORBO! Hello, Tiny Man. I WILL DESTROY YOU!!!!
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    Have you heard of this thing called the "margin of error?"
     
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  32. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    Yes. He said the polling was 45-45 and 10% undecided. My comments had more to do with the difference between that and what I had seen. Margin of error can impact any poll but the polls from a political standpoint seem to be less accurate than they were 10 years ago. I think a lot of that has to do with changing deomographics and changing sides. There are a lot of blue collar factory workers in the rust belt of the US and in the northern part of England who would normally associate with a democrat in the US or a party resembling Tory in the U.K. who voted trump and brexit.
     
  33. Wicket

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    Im really not saying either. I saw the polls in line with what i just looked up. Think your memory has failed you a bit.

    With Trump the weakness in the polls in the rustbelt was easily explainable but very real
     
  34. Wicket

    Wicket Fan: ND, PSV, Pool FC, Cricket, Urquel, Dog Crew
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    Blue collar workers dont vote tory
     
  35. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    I meant labour. Slip of the mind pre-coffee
     
  36. (Z)

    (Z) Well-Known Member
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    The last batch of polls all showed remain ahead, and some by as much as 6-8%, but only a week before, the polls had shown basically a tied race or leave slightly ahead. It was clear the whole time that it was very close.
     
  37. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
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    It was also a media failure, when the polling is basically tied or within the margin of error but most the media treated stay like a certainty the miss feels bigger even if the math doesn't back that up.
     
  38. Jay Jay Okocha

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    https://www.irishtimes.com/business...al-over-what-is-required-for-brexit-1.3156695

    The evidence continues to pile up: the UK government is woefully underprepared for Brexit, and remains in denial about what is now required.

    Theresa May and other Brexiteers keep insisting that things are proceeding smoothly when clearly they are not. As the EU’s negotiator-in-chief Michel Barnier said this week, all that he sees and hears about Britain’s preparations is a “clock ticking”.

    March 2019 approaches inexorably. And we get this week’s intervention by Boris Johnson in which he told the EU “to go whistle” if it wants the UK to honour its financial obligations.
    An absence of serious engagement with the details of Brexit is one thing but the refusal to prepare the electorate for the damage that leaving is going to cause is just as big a failure. The British people deserve – and need – better.

    Leading commentators are growing ever bolder in their efforts to heap derision on the government’s non-strategy and on the absence of any engagement with the details.

    It simply isn’t true, as the Brexiteers keep insisting, that current free-trade agreements between the EU and other countries can be adopted by the UK overnight. Trade agreements take years to negotiate, and are about much more than simple tariffs on physical goods. That’s the easy part. The rules and regulations surrounding trade in services – much more important to the UK – are mind-numbingly complicated and fraught with difficulty.

    Another example: nobody in the British government appears close to understanding that the EU regards its four freedoms – of movement of goods, capital, services and people – as fundamental and indivisible. While there may be wiggle room on some of the details, you can’t trade one off against the other in any material way.

    Complexity
    The obvious question is now being asked: if voters had been asked a slightly different question, “Do you want Brexit with all of its complexity and cost?”, what would the answer have been?

    The commentator Nick Cohen, writing for the Spectator, this week brilliantly evoked the physicist and Nobel prize-winner Richard Feynman in an attempt to try and make sense of what the British government is up to. Feynman said that only torment awaits those who try to understand quantum mechanics. “Do not keep saying to yourself, ‘but how can it [nature] be like that?’, because you will get down the drain, into a blind alley from which nobody has yet escaped.”

    That’s Brexit: it is what it is but it defies attempts to understand what it actually is.

    David Allen Green, writing in the Financial Times, describes it slightly differently.

    “As pro-Brexit ministers attempt to chuckle their way through any form of scrutiny, the EU negotiating team is there waiting patiently…there will be attempts by ministers and their supporters at avoidance, evasion and diversion. There will be name-calling and strident demands for patriotism. There will be blame-mongering and jockeying for succession. But what there will not be is any relevant minister taking this as seriously as the EU is doing.”

    The British government is negotiating with itself, its supporters and the tabloid press. It is not seriously talking to the EU.

    Tony Blair, not listened to by anyone, published a thoughtful piece in recent days arguing that Britain currently has “more followership than leadership”. With no serious people at the centre, the country can only stagger on to whatever happens next. He thinks that a proper engagement with Europe would reveal a more nuanced view of one of those four freedoms, the movement of people: here, he suggests, there is room for manoeuvre.

    Horror show
    The UK National Audit Office last week warned that the government’s approach was so chaotic that the Brexit process “could fall apart like a chocolate orange”. A “horror show” awaits if custom officials have to process new trade arrangements manually, it warns, something that awaits if a new computerised system of checks is not ready.

    Rather than take any of this seriously, the UK inches ever closer to what is now probably the most likely outcome: crashing out of the EU without a deal.

    Sensing the national mood on Brexit is starting to shift, the hard right of the Tory party actually now wants “no deal” as the preferred outcome. Any kind of compromise to avoid this disaster is now a matter of high treason.

    Brexit’s critics come at all of this with arguments, reason and detail. Anyone interested in Brexiteer response should read the comments at the end of any of this columnist’s recent articles (and probably this one).

    Ian Dunt, a leading critic of the Brexiteers, points out that the Tories keep May in her job only as a human shield, protection against both ridicule and Corbyn as prime minister. At least that’s what they hope.
    Nick Cohen likens the Brexiteers to Hitler’s appeasers: every option except the most difficult one was discarded.
     
  39. Jay Jay Okocha

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    The UK were the main proponents of the Single Market.
     
  40. Jay Jay Okocha

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    And yet the EU just negotiated trade deals with Canada and Japan.
     
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  41. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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    I can't believe this thread is 41 pages long.

    Carry on.
     
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  42. Doc Louis

    Doc Louis Well-Known Member
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    But don't keep calm?
     
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  43. Jay Jay Okocha

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    Sadly we're not even halfway through this mess.
     
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  44. Redav

    Redav One big ocean
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  45. Jay Jay Okocha

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  46. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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  47. Gallant Knight

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    What's been going on in Italian politics over the last 5 years is almost as embarrassing as what's been going on here
     
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  48. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    It’s worse honestly
     
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  49. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    Elaborate plz I’m unfamiliar with the goings on of Italians