CFB Week 1 - the real week 1

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLAU, Aug 28, 2017.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    Leans:

    USA +24 over OMiss
    BYU - LSU Under 47.5
    Michigan - Florida Under 44.5
    Bama - FSU Under 49.5

    kinda looking at: A&M - UCLA Over, GA Tech, NC State,
     
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  2. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    [​IMG]

    lets blow the dust off things and get it going again.
     
  3. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    I haven't looked at anything bama related since last season. The losses on the front 7 on defense I'm assuming will be "reload" with more studs and your run defense and pass rush will still be silly good?

    What's the new OCs style of offense? gonna still use a modified malzahn system that Lane used last year with a lot of screens/qb reads or go back to a traditional pro-style?
     
  4. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    Not being a homer, I think most people on the gambling board can put aside that type of stuff.

    Defense line is going to be really good just inexperienced. WR's should be the best WR group in the country. Apparently Jalen is a much improved passer. I'm taking the over 11.5 wins. Lose out the gate to FSU ok find me another loss. They aren't losing to FSU this week either.
     
  5. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    I'll believe that improved passer when I see it. I know he was a freshman last year but anything over 10 yards was horribly bad unless the WR was wide open (which happens a decent amount due to people having to load the box). If he actually has improved then the offense will be pretty high scoring.

    I'd assume we get a lot of Bo Scarborough and read options on saturday? Main reason I'm probably betting the under is thinking yall are conservative in week 1 and the defense will still be a Saban-level defense.

    Honestly unless LSU has a competent passing game for the first time in 10 years or Stidham is the real deal, Bama could run the table easily this year. Obviously I'm hoping for the Stidham part to come to fruition but we'll revisit that after the Clemson game
     
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  6. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    Real MadridJacksonville JaguarsFlorida GatorsTampa Bay Rays

    Anyone use any good websites for analysis or picks? Looking to add to my research when picking games this year.
     
  7. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I don't think Bo gets the majority of the carries Saturday. I think Bo will be eased into things until later in the season.
     
  8. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    @sportsinsights on twitter
     
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  9. Stone Cold Steve Austin

    Stone Cold Steve Austin Tickler Extraordinaire
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    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta Braves

    Appalachian State +14.5
     
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  10. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Ohio St -20.5 Thursday is a huge # so not a big fan. But I feel Kevin Wilson may want to run it up on them if he can.
     
  11. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Some early leans...

    Col State +5.5 at Col
    Ohio State at IU +21
    Lou -25.5 at Purdue
    Ball St +7-5 at Illinois
    Mary at Tex -17.5
     
    #11 Ndirish123, Aug 29, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2017
  12. psimp7

    psimp7 Well-Known Member
    Florida State SeminolesSeattle MarinersSeattle Seahawks

    Taking Minnesota -24.5 and Indiana +21.5
     
  13. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Anyone have an ESPN insider to ESPN Chalk/Phil Steele article?
     
  14. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    was anyone involved in getting the BTB picks a couple years ago? I went back and looked up the PM group we had and hamsterdam (can't tag?) was the main poster behind it. hasn't logged in 2017 though :-/
     
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  15. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    So far:

    hoping on the Indiana train +21
    Minn/Buffalo Un50

    4 team 7pt ties win teaser pays 3.4-1

    Louisville -17.5 / USA +30.5 / Appst +21.5 / UK -3 / Bama -0.5
     
  16. The Hebrew Husker

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    I always like looking at these numbers.
     
  17. HuskerGuy99

    HuskerGuy99 Above Average Member

    That's a nice chart. Interesting that 48% of the $ is on Ark. St.
     
  18. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    So by looking at this Rutgers and Akron seems like they have "smart" money on them right?
     
  19. TLAU

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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    I could be completely off on my line of thought here but I'd say the smart money plays are where one team has higher % tickets and the other team (smart$) would have an overwhelming % of the money for the same game, i.e. NMst and Bama

    Correct me if I'm wrong anyone that actually reads that and knows for sure.

    That USA 99% money scares me but with OMiss being the hot cfb story the last 2 months it's probably more of a reaction to that and not the fact that's Dbl University is actually pretty good for a small school / Young program and OMiss doesn't have the talent they did the last 2-3 years
     
  20. The Hebrew Husker

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    This is how I've read it too.

    Kind of like the case was with the mayweather fight. Tons of tickets on Conor but small bets. Bigger money on Floyd but maybe smaller ticket count.
     
  21. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    Just added VT based on that
     
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  22. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Am I reading something wrong then? Last column is $ bet and 2nd last is number of tickets. So with Washington has more people betting on them but Rutgers has more money on them.
     
  23. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Pittsburgh PenguinsOhio State BuckeyesPittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Reds

    I think we are saying the same thing. I was looking more so at when a % of bets is on one team (mcgregor) but % of money on the other (Floyd) to steal example from guy below.
     
  24. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    Yes so I'd consider "smart" money to be on Rutgers here, is that what you're thinking?
     
  25. b7

    b7 Well-Known Member
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    Yea that's what I was thinking. I was looking for opposites.
     
  26. The Hebrew Husker

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    Behind The Bets Podcast, Bob Scucci says sharp money on:

    Indiana +21
    Florida +5 (before suspensions it sounded like)
     
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  27. KNOTT

    KNOTT Well-Known Member
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  28. The_QCT

    The_QCT Riding the ROY bus
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    Ark State +16.5
    BC -2.5
    Vandy -3.5
    Troy +11.5
     
  29. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay Lightning

    I've followed this ESPN ACC writer the last couple years on Twitter. He tweets out his picks whenever he finds lines he likes, so you'll have to be active on Twitter to follow along. He did pretty well last year. He doesn't pretend to be some odds shark, but this guy is constantly parsing information from the ESPN Stats & Info database.

    He's 1-0 so far this year taking the over in the Colorado St - OSU game.

     
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  30. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    I want to take Indiana and the points but damn if the thought of Urban going in dry doesn't scare me
     
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  31. The Hebrew Husker

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    I know these guys aren't sharps or anything but I like listening to "Behind The Bets" on my way to work. ESPN forces them to pick the two common games, then they can pick their own. Figured why not post them.

    Common games:
    Falica: Alabama -7
    Steve: Alabama -7
    Falica: Michigan -5
    Steve: Florida +5

    Wildcard:
    Bear:
    Tulsa +18
    Memphis -26
    Troy +11.5
    App State +14.5
    Cal +11
    Iowa -11.5
    Ball St +7 (least confident)
    Vandy -3

    Steve:
    WMU/USC over 57.5
    BC -3
    Texas/Maryland over 56
     
  32. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay Lightning

    How shitty was Bear last season? I feel like he didn't do well at all (could be off though).
     
  33. The Hebrew Husker

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    Yeah last year they weren't great.

    I thought the years prior they were OK.
     
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  34. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    That is correct. Both really struggled last year, sub .500 I think for most of the years.
    Year before, (2015) I think Bear was close to 60%.
     
  35. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Someone last year I think posted the ESPN Chalk insider articles. Not sure who. They do the write ups on each game if I remember correctly.
     
  36. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Bear gets too cute with some of picks IMO. They are also forced to pick some games from corporate even if they don't like it. Overall I think they are great to pick and chose from.
     
  37. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    :cerealkiller: let me know what you want and I'll post it. I am actually spending all of today doing nothing but football research.
     
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  38. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    I liked this one

    100 college football betting nuggets to know


    • David PurdumESPN Staff Writer
    College football went to the 'dogs last season, 200 of them.

    During the 2016 regular season, exactly 200 teams, designated underdogs by the betting odds, pulled off outright upsets. That's the most upsets in the last 12 seasons, according sports betting database BetLabSports.com on SportsInsights.

    Underdogs also had their most successful season against the point spread in 2016, covering the number in 52.5 percent of games. That's the highest percentage in the last 12 seasons.

    Of note, though, last season's run of 'dogs followed a 2015 campaign that was dominated by favorites. Underdogs pulled 162 straight-up upsets in 2015, the second-fewest in the last 12 seasons. Favorites covered the spread in 423 games in 2015, the most of any of the last 12 seasons.

    What 2017 brings in the battle of favorites versus underdogs is anyone's guess, but a regression to the mean wouldn't be surprising. Since 2005, favorites are 4,455-4,452 against the spread.

    In the meantime, here are 100 notable Vegas-style nuggets to get you ready for the college football season:

    • South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews, a college football specialist, doesn't have Alabama ranked No. 1 in his power ratings. "It's not like I have some slouch team [at No. 1]," Andrews said. "It's Ohio State, with Urban Meyer."

    There's not a huge gap between the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide, Andrews added, noting that the betting market would likely dictate Alabama as a favorite over Ohio State in a head-to-head meeting. But, to start the season, the Buckeyes have the highest ceiling of any team in Andrews' eyes.

    • More money has been bet on Alabama to win the national championship than any other team at multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks. At William Hill, 20 percent of the amount wagered on the book's odds to win the national championship has been on the Crimson Tide.

    Most bets to win national championship at William Hill
    1. USC
    2. Michigan
    3. Ohio State
    4. Florida State
    5. Alabama

    Most money wagered on to win national championship at William Hill
    1. Alabama
    2. USC
    3. Ohio State
    4. Florida State
    5. Michigan

    Notable national title bets at William Hill
    • $500 on BYU at 300-1, placed Aug. 15. Would net $150,000.
    • $1,000 on Stanford at 100-1, placed March 15. Would net $100,000.
    • $200 on BYU 500-1, placed June 24. Would net $100,000
    • $200 on Arkansas 500-1, placed July 5. Would net $100,000.
    • $1,000 on Miami, Fla., at 75-1, placed Aug. 16. Would net $75,000.
    • $2,000 on Louisville at 30-1, placed July 3. Would net $60,000.
    • $200 on Michigan St 250-1, placed Jan 11. Would net $50,000.
    • $200 on NC State at 250-1, placed Jan 11. Would net $50,000.
    • $100 on South Florida at 500-1, placed June 30. Would net $50,000.



    [​IMG]
    Betting previews for top 25 CFB teams
    Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and Stanford Steve give comprehensive betting previews of the top 25 college football teams, including how to bet their title odds and over/unders.

    • [​IMG]
      Biggest college football game line moves
      The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's college football game lines opened on July 9th, but a lot has happened between then and now. Phil Steele looks at the biggest line moves and why they changed.


    Notable movement in the Westgate SuperBook's odds to win the national title
    • Wisconsin from 40-1 to 20-1
    • Notre Dame from 60-1 to 25-1
    • Oklahoma from 8-1 to 18-1
    • Louisville from 10-1 to 30-1
    • Michigan from 12-1 to 20-1
    • LSU from 12-1 to 20-1
    • Texas from 20-1 to 40-1
    • Colorado from 60-1 to 300-1

    Sharp season wins (Teams that have attracted bets from respected players at South Point)
    • Arkansas over 6.5
    • Army under 7
    • Cincinnati over 6
    • Florida Atlantic over 5
    • Georgia State under 5
    • Hawaii over 5
    • Kansas over 3
    • Marshall over 6
    • UMass over 3
    • Mississippi State over 5.5
    • Penn State under 9.5
    • San Diego State under 9
    • Texas A&M under 7

    Rise of the Trojans
    "They're betting USC every way possible," said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk for Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology. • USC's season-win total opened at 9.5 (-130 over) at CG Technology, but has been bet up to 9.5 (-210 over).

    • USC's odds to win the national championship have shortened from 8-1 to 7-1.

    • USC is even-money to win the Pac-12.

    • Trojans QB Sam Darnold has seen his odds to win the Heisman Trophy improve from 6-1 to 5-2.

    Most bets to win the Heisman Trophy at CG Technology
    1. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
    2. USC QB Sam Darnold
    3. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett
    4. LSU RB Derrius Guice
    5. Georgia RB Nick Chubb

    Most money bet to win the Heisman Trophy at CG Technology
    1. Darnold
    2. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
    3. Barkley
    4. Barrett
    5. Guice

    Best ATS teams since 2012
    • Temple 39-24
    • Colorado State 38-24
    • Duke 30-20
    • Georgia State 30-20
    • Rice 36-25

    Worst ATS teams since 2012
    • UConn 18-40
    • South Alabama 23-41
    • Kansas 22-37
    • California 23-38
    • Arizona 25-40

    BetLabSports.com on SportsInsights and TeamRankings.com was used in this article.
     
  39. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    Thanks man. On the pod they said the Bear/Stanford Steve and Phil Steele's article would all be together this year.
    I will try and track the picks week by week and post it here.
     
  40. The Hebrew Husker

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    Agreed. I usually listen for a couple of their "wildcard" games, but definitely sometimes Bear goes off the grid.
     
  41. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Yeah I heard that as well. I like the comprehensive write up with all 3.
     
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  42. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
    Kansas JayhawksAlabama Crimson Tide

    I think Bear started out poor but 2nd half of the season :fire:
     
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  43. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Exactly. By the way, I am taking your Jayhawk's season win total over 3. However I also took Auburn to win the Natty so take that first future play for what it's worth.
     
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  44. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta United

    Tonight, not surprisingly, I need:

    Indiana
    North Dakota
    Tulsa
     
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  45. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    On IU and Tulsa with you.

    I took BC -3 on Friday and on Saturday I took

    Cal +13
    Bama -7
    Vandy -3
    Troy +11 (I have loved Troy since it came out at 13 but I waited too long)
     
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  46. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Good luck to us then. I'll try to post the big games I need each day and track how that goes.
     
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  47. Ndirish123

    Ndirish123 Active Member

    On Rutgers +30.5 v Wash on Friday.
     
  48. DuffandMuff

    DuffandMuff Well-Known Member
    Tampa Bay Lightning

     
  49. The Hebrew Husker

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    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    On the other side with my OSU -20.5 pick. Don't love it, so we'll see.

    Didn't take a side in Tulsa/Oklahoma State so let's go Tulsa. Good luck y'all.
     
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  50. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    I'm on tOSU at the same number. Also took the over in the Okie Lite/Tulsa game. Need a shootout