CFB Week 6 (Chalk Week?)

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by TLAU, Oct 2, 2017.

  1. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    At First Glance:

    Clemson -21.5 over Wake - Wake coming off blowing a potentially big win for their program. Clemson I don't really see having a down game and they have Cuse on deck so not a look ahead. Talent alone should get them 24pt+ win

    Arkansas -135 over South Carolina - said it probably the last 2.5 years that Arkansas is never as bad as their record. They lose to the people they're supposed to lose to and in blowout fashion normally. Teams they're actually better than they have beaten most of the time under Bielema. Just betting on the better team to win this game.

    Georgia -16.5 over Vandy - Still riding the UGA Defense train. Vandy should have absolutely zero success on offense (Team Total bet may be the play instead, will wait on lines). Line is just high enough to where Vegas will tempt people into thinking UGA has a let down game. Shouldn't happen though.

    Kentucky -11.5 over Mizzou - Fading Mizzou because I think they're one of the worst P5 teams in the country. And Kentucky is in win or go home mode for the SEC East race. They should be pumped enough to take them to the woodshed in a night home game

    Alabama-A&M/Auburn-OMiss - I'm gonna wait around for team totals on this one to see if the line game is still gonna net some good numbers. Honesty don't see either A&M/OMiss getting too far into double-digits. Will take A&M TT Under 10 or better and OMiss TT Under 14 or better
     
  2. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    Tiger Woods

    Miami -3. FSU is bad, injured, and Miami's defense will kill Blackman
     
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  3. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    I like Florida anywhere under a TD. LSU is a mess right now. Neither line is very good, and Florida should be able to control LSU's run game and run on LSU. Gonna look at some more games later this afternoon and see what else is out there.
     
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  4. The_QCT

    The_QCT Riding the ROY bus
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    Last Week: 1-4
    YTD: 13-12

    Some early leans for everyone to fade....

    Purdue -4
    Utah +6.5
    Arkansas -2.5
    Oregon -2.5
    Nebraska +11.5
     
  5. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Early leans:

    NC St +4
    UVA -2 (big move here, might end up on the other side)
    South Carolina +2
    West Virginia +13
    Florida -3.5
    SMU +7
    Miami -3


    Wazzu +2 at Oregon is an interesting line. Figured after their big win and with Oregon's injury problems they'd be more of a favorite.
     
  6. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    With you on FL and Miami. Got FL at -3 though. The Oregon line is weird to me as well. Oregon's back up QB did pretty well this week. Also Oregon obviously has a solid home field advantage, but I guess maybe the oddsmaker are factoring in Wazzu to be on let down alert. Leach does have history of that. Either way the line seems weird, especially when the public generally uses the week before's performance as one of the main criteria when picking a side.
     
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  7. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    nope.
     
  8. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    WVU +14 was approx 7 pts too high. interesting.
     
  9. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    mich st +11.
    UH -6.
     
  10. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    10-4 YTD
    3-0 Last week

    Initial leans:

    Wake Forest +21.5 @ Clemson: 21 is a big number for a "check the box" game against Clemson. I like Clemson a lot this year but Wake isn't as bad as they usually are. I'll wait and see on this one.

    Maryland +32
    @ OSU: Another big number for a team that's improved a lot, although they are on their third string quarterback. 32 is ripe for a back door cover.

    South Carolina +2.5 vs. Arkansas: Give me the home dog in a competitive SEC game every time.

    UF -3 vs. LSU: LSU is a total mess right now and Florida may have gotten it's wheels straight.

    Texas -4 vs. KSU: This one just popped off. Need to do a little more research.

    FSU +3.5 vs. Miami: Mark. Richt. Trap. Games.
     
  11. undrtow

    undrtow learn to swim
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    curious as to your thoughts behind this
     
  12. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    i felt dirty covering with texas last week. i think you are right about texas at home against kstate, but i would wait for 3.
     
  13. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    added:
    south carolina 1.5. someone alluded to this being a close game. i'll take the home team in that scenario, especially against an arky team that has collapsed in nearly every 2h.
     
  14. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    florida got their wheels straight? did we watch different vandy games?
     
  15. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    UNLV getting 10.5 at home to sdsu is fascinating. that line should be less than a TD.
     
  16. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    this feels like a game oregon will win by a TD or more.
     
  17. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    MLB - How to bet the AL Wild Card game between the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins
    by Joe Peta on (original: http://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/s...ld-card-game-new-york-yankees-minnesota-twins)

    Although Major League Baseball's wild-card games are advance-or-go-home contests, lately they've seen as many starting-pitching gems, as they have all-hands-on-deck efforts. Sure, the Blue Jays beat the Orioles last year in the American League wild-card game thanks to better bullpen use in an 11-inning game that featured the use of 13 pitchers, but in the past three years, wild-card games have also featured starting pitching gems from Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner (twice).

    Neither of Tuesday night's participants, the Minnesota Twins nor the New York Yankees, would appear to have aces of that caliber. Minnesota's Ervin Santana has a lifetime ERA above 4.00, and it was just a year ago that the Yankees' starter, Luis Severino, sported a ghastly 5.83 ERA in mixed work as both a reliever and a starter. There's no question that each qualified as his team's ace this season, though, thanks to team-high starts, innings pitched and rotation-best ERAs, with Severino's besting Santana's 2.98 to 3.28.

    Neither of these teams' calling card is run suppression, though -- it's run scoring. Led by rookie Aaron Judge's 52 home runs, the Yankees trailed only the Astros in runs scored in 2017. That's quite a turnaround for a team that was outscored by the DH-less San Diego Padres last season. The Twins were an offensive force, as well, finishing fourth in the American League in scoring, while topping the 800-run mark for the first time since 2009. In fact, since the All-Star break, it's not the Yankees nor MLB's highest-scoring team, the Astros, nor even the Indians, who won nearly three-quarters of their games in the second half, who led the majors in runs scored. It was the Minnesota Twins -- by a comfortable margin.

    Both teams are led by a core of young, everyday players with bright futures, but Minnesota faces a New York-based cloud that hangs over the franchise in October. The Twins have lost 12 straight postseason games dating back to 2004, and nine of those losses were to the Yankees. They'll need to break that streak for their 2017 playoff experience to last more than one evening.

    I'm back for my third straight year to preview October baseball, and I've got a postseason streak that I don't have any desire to see come to an end. I've previewed all 18 MLB playoff series for ESPN Chalk the past two years and have a 17-1 record in calling the winner, including turning in last year's perfect bracket -- a baseball handicapper's equivalent of scaling Mount Everest.

    Here are my thought's on Tuesday night's game:

    Minnesota Twins (Santana) +210 at New York Yankees (Severino) -240
    Over/Under: 7.5

    Based on the Twins' MLB-leading offense since the All-Star break, and given that the Twins emerged from a half-dozen-team scrum for the second AL wild card, you'd probably suspect they enter the playoffs as a hot team. In fact, the Twins' emergence from the pack resembled a horse race in which the winner didn't sprint its way to the finish, but merely slowed down less than the rest of the horses. Only a win in their meaningless season finale gave the Twins a winning record in September. They don't really enter October hot -- their competition simply imploded.

    There have been roughly as many wild-card games dominated by a starting pitcher as there have been all-hands-on-deck contributions since the change in wild-card game format in 2012. The good news for the Yankees is that in either scenario, they're better equipped than the Twins. Owing to his admittedly impressive 3.32 ERA , Santana might have the potential to toss a gem, but you'd never predict it based on his skill set. In fact, it's Severino who has the better strikeout rate and walk rate, and, by a wide margin, he induces more ground balls.

    On top of that, the Yankees have the better defense, albeit marginally, and the better bullpen, materially. Stripped of cluster luck, which benefited both teams' runs-scored readings, New York has an ever more superior offense than the headline numbers suggest. It's one game, so of course anything can happen (and the Twins do have the potential to create some runs on the basepaths), but the Yankees can play that game, as well.

    New York is a big favorite, as all of these factors are incorporated in the inflated price, but it's not going to scare me off tonight. I've got the Yankees winning this game close to 75 percent of the time, largely due to their huge bullpen advantage. There'll be other games this postseason that will register as stronger plays for sure, but by my numbers, there's still enough edge to make the Judge-led Bombers the play Tuesday night.

    ESPN Chalk pick: New York -240
     
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  18. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Do you use a program or system for your valuations or do you eyeball it like most of us hacks?
     
  19. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    I purchased a sub the past few years to atn preseason guide which has power ratings

    From there it's all situational and eyeball
     
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  20. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Has it been beneficial for you?
     
  21. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    I guess if i was a disciplined bettor I would more successful. The system works pretty well
     
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  22. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    What's the sub?
     
  23. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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  24. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    motherfucking preach
     
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  25. TLAU

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    Weekday Degeneral ML Parlay:

    Arky State / Louisville / Patriots

    pays just under 2-1
     
  26. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    The power ratings update weekly or it's just preseason?
     
  27. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    just preseason. they sell picks there too but i don't buy touts.
     
  28. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    After more research I'm off most of those games. Revised list looks like this:

    NCSU Moneyline I think they're the better team and that stadium can get pretty wild in a night game. Biggest game in a while for them, too. Huge advantage with NCSU DL over Louisville's OL. Only 0.5U though, more of a gut feel.

    UF -2.5 vs LSU 1U
    Purdue -3 vs. Minn 2U
    A&M +26.5 vs. Bama 1U

    I'll probably only bet one of the following, as I hate betting west coast games that I can rarely stay up for.
    BYU +9 vs. Boise State
    Utah +5.5 vs. Stanford
     
  29. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    ON the NCSU ML as well. I actually think the line should be reversed.
     
  30. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    what's the deal with utah? they have a bunch of injures on D. stanford should run all over them.
     
  31. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    Utah coming off a bye, Stanford is 1-2 on the road with its only win as a putrid Rice team. Night game in an underrated environment. From ESPN Chalk:

    Stanford Cardinal (-5.5) at No. 20 Utah Utes

    Steele: Utah has won three in a row in the series, with the most recent meeting coming in 2014. The Utes are fresh off a bye, while Stanford is on its third road game in four weeks and fifth straight tough game. Utah got very banged up in its previous game and might be without quarterback Tyler Huntley and star defensive lineman Kylie Fitts. Stanford might be giving redshirt freshman K.J. Costello his first road start, while Utah has Troy Williams, who started all 13 games last season. Bryce Love just topped 300 yards versus the Arizona State defense but now faces a defense that allows just 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. This is not your typical Stanford defense, as they're giving up 445 yards per game and 32 yards more than their opponent's average.

    ATS pick: Utah
    Score: Utah 28, Stanford 27


    Coughlin: This is an absolute brutal spot for the Cardinal. Utah is home off a bye week, and the game is at night. Stanford's quarterback situation is not set in stone, as Keller Chryst could be back under center for the Stanford offense after Costello helped the team win its past two games while Chryst was injured. Utah watched Bryce Love run up and down the field on ASU last week for a Stanford school-record 301 yards. Whether its Chryst or Costello under center for the Cardinal, I don't see the Cardinal being able to consistently move the chains in a hostile environment. Add that Kyle Whittingham is 2-0 versus David Shaw and has beaten two way better offenses than this Cardinal outfit, and I say the Utes remain undefeated.

    ATS pick: Utah
    Score: Utah 24, Stanford 23
     
  32. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    i gotta say i think that number is right. though i could easily see stan winning like 34-17.
     
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  33. bRamonceTaylor

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    NCST pick was nails.
     
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  34. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    W NC State +4
    Florida -3
    Miami -3
    WVU +14
    Auburn -21
    Purdue -4
    TTU -17
    UAB +12

    Will add some over/under and TT on Sat.




    25-21-1 YTD
     
  35. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
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    Got LSU +6 early in week and bet Vandy +17.5
     
  36. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    considering Vandy as well. That is a lot of points and I think UGA might be overvalued thus inflating the line.
     
  37. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
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    I think they are right now. Liking Vandys defense to keep them in it
     
  38. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    thoughts on the Noles/Miami game?
     
  39. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
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    Going to be looking at play on first half under. I'm staying away from the side. Our o line last week was garbage but we are at home this weekend and have played a much tougher schedule than Miami. I just think FSU is too unpredictable for me to bet on the side
     
  40. kslim

    kslim Guest

    early games plays

    Pending 6 Team Parlay
    Win 10/5/17 7:00pm College Football 306 NC State +4 -160* vs Louisville
    Pending 10/7/17 12:00pm College Football 314 North Carolina +17 -110* vs Notre Dame
    Pending 10/7/17 12:00pm College Football 332 Northwestern +14 -110* vs Penn State
    Pending 10/7/17 12:00pm College Football 333 Temple -3 -110* vs East Carolina
    Pending 10/7/17 12:00pm College Football 335 Duke +2½ -110* vs Virginia
    Pending 10/7/17 12:00pm College Football 337 Pittsburgh U +4½ -110* vs Syracuse
     
  41. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    Duke +2
    Cuse/Pitt OVER 64
    OhSt -30
    SoCar +3
    LSU +2
    WVa +13
    Week: 0-1
    Season: 32-14

    David Hale plays. As a UVA fan I think Duke is a solid bet but I don’t bet our games.
     
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  42. kslim

    kslim Guest

    Its bills birthday btw so if you got in on KSU +7 1/2 good on ya
     
  43. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    I think UGA still cover, but the D won't be as strong this week. The strength of our D is our front 7. We use Trent Thompson to eat up blocks to free up our LB crew who flies around.

    However, as of this week, Thompson and 2 of our top 3 ILBs are out. We run a 3-4 and are thin at ILB. It will basically be Roquan and a bunch of freshmen who've never really played
     
  44. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    wish i woulda read that before making my bet :facepalm:
     
  45. TLAU

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    vandy TT under 12.5
    Omiss TT under 17
    A&M TT under 15.5
     
  46. kslim

    kslim Guest

    still riding that train huh
     
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  47. bRamonceTaylor

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    LSU is favored now. What the fuck?
     
  48. kslim

    kslim Guest

    um yeah, hammer that. i was thinking it could go pickem but i will kill the money line on that one