CFB Week 7

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by UKupNorth, Oct 9, 2017.

  1. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    Any early leans out there? Pretty shitty week as far as big match ups.
     
  2. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    I am already on Auburn -6 and Michigan -5

    Some sides that intially caught my eye.

    GA Tech +7
    Mississippi State -22
    TCU -4
    Purdue +15.5
    Ohio State -24
    Maryland +3
     
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  3. kslim

    kslim Guest

    lots of teasing, tcu -5 is a lock
    I'm taking
    ku +26 @isu
    south alabama @troy +18
    wvu outright
    purdue +18 @wisconsin
    army -5 @eastern michigan
    virginia -3 @unc
    thats what i have as of now

    edit fuck it went ahead and changed some shit, probably going to fuck myself

    Pending 10/9/17 8:30pm NFL Football 476 Chicago Bears +5½ -128* vs Minnesota Vikings
    Pending 10/11/17 8:00pm College Football 101 South Alabama +20½ -180* vs Troy
    Pending 10/14/17 3:30pm College Football 113 Purdue +16½ -130* vs Wisconsin
    Pending 10/14/17 12:00pm College Football 126 Army -5 -110* vs Eastern Michigan
    Pending 10/14/17 3:30pm College Football 133 Virginia -4 -110* vs North Carolina
    Pending 10/14/17 12:00pm College Football 138 West Virginia -1½ -170* vs Texas Tech
    Pending 10/14/17 12:00pm College Football 141 Michigan -4½ -130* vs Indiana
    Pending 10/14/17 12:00pm College Football 149 Kansas U +23½ -170* vs Iowa State
    Pending 10/14/17 12:00pm College Football 152 Kansas State +7½ -190* vs TCU
    Pending 10/14/17 12:00pm College Football 156 Duke +7 -125* vs Florida State
     
  4. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    at first glance:

    Texas +7.5 vs OU - didn't someone post about Herman ATS as a dog earlier this year?
    Bama -30 vs Arky
    A&M +137 vs. Florida - pretty much a value play at + odds
    Auburn -6 vs. LSU

    Could be looking at parlaying MLs for TCU/Auburn/Wazzou - pays out +160
     
  5. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta United

    Yeah Herman is 12-0 ATS and 11-1 SU as a college OC or HC as a dog.
     
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  6. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
    Donor
    Virginia CavaliersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksChelsea

    I'm going to be riding the Brohm train until it takes me under. Wiscy is good but thats a lotta points

    Initial leans, although these change a ton throughout the week. I usually do most of my research on Thursdays.

    Texas +7.5
    Purdue +16.5
    NC State -12
    Michigan -6.5
    FSU -6.5
    Auburn -6.5

    Some of those road favorite lines stink so I probably won't touch them.
     
  7. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    sooooo all in on kstate?

    their back up QB is going to run for 400 yards on TCU.
     
  8. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    a line that really makes you say...hmmmm.

    gotta be FSU or nothing here.

    WVU/TTU seems alot like Georgia/Miss St a few weeks ago.

    that line should be a TD. tech has to play two road games in a row, against an already undervalued WVU team? the line has dropped from 6 to 3. :beaver: yes, please.
     
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  9. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    cal getting 14 also worth a look.
     
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  10. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    yeah a ridiculous clip. of course, this ended this year with the OT loss at USC. texas getting 8 is interesting, especially with OU coming off a shocking loss.

    we are a different team with ehlinger at QB. orlando shut down mayfield last year as well, with much inferior talent.

    can texas really cover in 4 straight games though?

    Dating back to his tenure as offensive coordinator of Ohio State, Herman has now won 11 straight games when entering as the underdog.

    YEAR TEAM (SPREAD) OPPONENT SCORE
    2012 Ohio State (+2) Michigan State 17-16
    2012 Ohio State (+1) Wisconsin 21-14
    2014 Ohio State (+4) Michigan State 49-37
    2014 Ohio State (+4) Wisconson 59-0
    2014 Ohio State (+7.5) Alabama 42-35
    2014 Ohio State (+6) Oregon 42-20
    2015 Houston (+13.5) Louisville 34-31
    2015 Houston (+1.5) Navy 52-31
    2015 Houston (+7.5) Florida State 38-24
    2016 Houston (+13) Oklahoma 33-23
    2016 Houston (+14.5) Louisville 36-10
     
  11. kslim

    kslim Guest

    no tcu is going to kill us. we are falling apart everywhere since the 2nd half of the baylor game
     
  12. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    and there was that time yall lost to Vandy
     
  13. kslim

    kslim Guest

    yep, and texas up 3 with the ball late
     
  14. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpool

    ...but you bet ksu +7.5?
     
  15. kslim

    kslim Guest

    yeah, i wont bet against my team. i will lose that bet im sure and like i said it was a last minute change. im dead serious we should lose to tcu by 10+ points right now

    the line was at 4 when i placed that bet i just teased it up to over a td
     
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  16. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    why in da fuq are you guys betting auburn right now? that line can only come down...and it will.
     
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  17. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Because it appears to be a 70-30 split on Auburn right now. The line bottomed at 6 and is up to 6.5. I think it ends up at 7 or even 7.5 and stay there.
     
  18. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    is that a ticket split, or money?
     
  19. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    70-30 was the ticket split. I did listen to some commentary saying that most of the money coming in so far in Vegas is Auburn money. That number is going to creep up to -7 or even -7.5, then you know you are going to see a ton of sharps load up on LSU based on the principle that they are getting LSU as a TD home dog. I think -6 is the lowest it gets though. I get the thought process but I am riding with the public on this one.
     
  20. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    if the ticket split is 70/30, the number would have moved much more by now than a half point. means that while early ticket count favors aub, money is close.

    i think as the week goes on you will see more LSU tickets and that number will come down.

    i've been plenty wrong about live moves before though.
     
  21. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Maybe they got some early LSU money early when the line was above 7 to slow the movement down? It is still Tuesday so time will tell. I think 6.5 or 7 is where the final number lands but I've also been plenty wrong about line moves before.

    Line Movements

    A DAY AGO
    LSU +6 CHANGED TO LSU +6.5.
    LSU +6
    LSU +6.5

    LINE MOVEMENT
    A DAY AGO
    LSU +6.5 CHANGED TO LSU +6.
    LSU +6.5
    LSU +6
    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +7 CHANGED TO LSU +6.5.
    LSU +7
    LSU +6.5

    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +8 CHANGED TO LSU +7.
    LSU +8
    LSU +7

    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +9 CHANGED TO LSU +8.
    LSU +9
    LSU +8

    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +8 CHANGED TO LSU +9.
    LSU +8
    LSU +9

    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +9.5 CHANGED TO LSU +8.
    LSU +9.5
    LSU +8

    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +7 CHANGED TO LSU +9.5.
    LSU +7
    LSU +9.5

    LINE MOVEMENT
    2 DAYS AGO
    LSU +6 CHANGED TO LSU +7.
    LSU +6
    LSU +7
     
  22. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWE

    So you like WVU?
     
  23. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    oh yeah.

    texas tech last several games are pretty flukeish, talking from a value standpoint.
    - against UH, they were lucky that UH started kyle allen. he's proven to be the inferior QB to postma, who has been much better since being inserted as the starter. still, tech only won by 3.
    - against okie lite, okie lite outgain them by 250 yards but only win by 7. two missed FGs and an INT in the redzone.
    - against kansas, kansas was driving in the 4q to cut the lead to 9 and texas tech had an 85 yd fumble return for a TD, and then an INT for a TD and all of sudden it is a 30 pt game.

    at some point, this luck will run out. and this week is the 2nd road trip in as many weeks. sets up very well for WVU.
     
  24. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    full disclosure I bet against them each week so I'm just a little bitter.
     
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  25. kslim

    kslim Guest

    our qb is out. for the record
     
  26. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Locked in:

    Auburn -6
    aTm ML +141
    aTm +3
    TCU -4
    Michigan -5
    Mississippi State -22
    Purdue +17

    Leans:

    Michigan State -4 what am I missing on this? Let down game perhaps?
    Texas +8

    YTD 32-24-2
     
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  27. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    it's ok you've got colin kaepernick as his back up.
     
  28. kslim

    kslim Guest

    hopefully our 3rd string freshman plays, he is as fast as delton if not faster and can actually throw. i would 100% take whatever the under is in this game im sure we will run it 50+ times
     
  29. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpool

    It's 53.5
     
  30. kslim

    kslim Guest

    i dont see tcu scoring 50
     
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  31. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    Anybody on the South Alabama vs Troy fun belt game tonight?

    Jumping on the under 50.
     
    #31 UKupNorth, Oct 11, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  32. wolfpck

    wolfpck haters gonna hate
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    Urge you not to do that one. We are in a huge let down spot and honestly think there is a decent shot we lose.
     
  33. kslim

    kslim Guest

    Took the over and +20 1/2
     
  34. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Have a teaser with the over and Troy -12
     
  35. kslim

    kslim Guest

    Interesting
     
  36. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Not great
     
  37. kslim

    kslim Guest

    Not a bad bet South Alabama the one time I watched them looked decent, that spread was kinda wtf
     
  38. It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens

    It'sAlwaysSunnyInAthens Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Troy has killed themselves with turnovers. Oh well, just wanted a little something to keep my interest.
     
  39. ColeTrickle

    ColeTrickle 1-0 Culture, LLC
    Staff Donor
    Texas LonghornsTexas Rangers

    I like Utah, Kansas State and Texas (no homer)
     
  40. ColeTrickle

    ColeTrickle 1-0 Culture, LLC
    Staff Donor
    Texas LonghornsTexas Rangers

    I think you win straight up this weekend
     
  41. kslim

    kslim Guest

    i will never say never with snyds but man we are banged up have no confidence. i just dont see it
     
  42. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    so far:

    6-pt Tease TCU +1.5 / Auburn -0.5
    A&M +110
    FSU -7 (-120) been anti-FSU all year (sec thread knows this) but this line stinks like shit. I think dome foam pointed it out earlier. 1-3 team favored by more than a TD on the road vs. a 4-2 team. Screams Duke sucker bet

    UT line going up gonna wait to see if it hopefully gets up to 9.5-10 by kickoff
     
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  43. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    I added FSU as well, 100% agree. It looks like the UT line has dropped back down to 7.5 at several sites.
     
  44. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    haven't taken Sparty or Texas.

    Added

    FSU- 7
    WVU -3
    UAB +7 (bought hook up)
     
  45. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    it won't

    I'd get 8 now if you can
     
  46. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta Braves

    probably right. god I hate doing teasers and already have 1 this week but I would love to tease it 6.5 points to +14.5.... I may do that and throw it in with Auburn again. Only thing stopping me is that when I used to do teasers a lot - putting 1 game in multiple ones was ALWAYS the game that lost. I can't do that to my boys
     
  47. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAtlanta FalconsAtlanta UnitedUnited States Men's National Soccer TeamLiverpool

    Welp somehow I accidentally took KSU at +6 after I took TCU at -4.5, so now I'm looking for one hell of an awkward middle.
     
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  48. UKupNorth

    UKupNorth Well-Known Member

    UCLA -1
    WVU - 3

    ML Parlay
    Wash St.
    Michigan
    Louisville
    Auburn
    Washington

    2ND ML Parlay
    Wash St.
    Michigan
    Iowa St.
    Louisville
    Arkansas St.
    Washington
     
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  49. kslim

    kslim Guest

    louisville scares the shit out of me but i might back the rest of that 1st parlay.
     
  50. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Texas LonghornsHouston AstrosHouston RocketsHouston Texans

    ville is like a 21 pt fave right? you have a book that lets you include them in a ML parlay?